predictions

Trumping it Up donkey-elephant

Trumping it Up

Saul DeGraw September 22, 2016

Trump and the Future of American politics.

An Unfair, Post-Hoc Critique of Nate Silver 3357781682_03d9c5c174_b_Nate-Silver

An Unfair, Post-Hoc Critique of Nate Silver

Vikram Bath April 7, 2016

Trump's probability of winning the nomination was not 1.5625%.

Predictions and Hopes IFRL-TLC-War-specna-arms-1120115-unsplash

Predictions and Hopes

Burt Likko January 1, 2014

Step right up for some fearless prognostication!

InMD in reply to Saul Degraw on Open Mic for the Week of 4/14/2025I don't know why you'd think Trump is scared but one hopes this combined with the strongly worded 4t…
Mike on The Lawless Lying Duplicitous Bastards of Abrego GarciaIsrael can take him in. He's a father of 3 or whatever. I'm guessing Hamas has people that are fathe…
David TC in reply to Jaybird on Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro’s Residence Attacked, Suspect ArrestedSo, yes, that sounds plausible, but also...no. It's not _just_ that. There are a lot of people who h…
David TC in reply to Jaybird on Open Mic for the Week of 4/14/2025As far as I can tell, the Republicans have a “whatabout” for every single “precedent” that the Democ…
David TC in reply to Jaybird on Open Mic for the Week of 4/14/2025I’m pretty sure that we’re *ALL* members of the press. When the First Amendment was written, “the pr…
Jaybird in reply to David TC on Open Mic for the Week of 4/14/2025As far as I can tell, the Republicans have a "whatabout" for every single "precedent" that the Democ…
Jaybird in reply to David TC on Open Mic for the Week of 4/14/2025I'm pretty sure that we're *ALL* members of the press. When the First Amendment was written, "the pr…
Dark Matter in reply to Jaybird on Open Mic for the Week of 4/14/2025Far as I can tell, most press conferences are not open to the general public. That seems to be what…
David TC in reply to Jaybird on Open Mic for the Week of 4/14/2025I have to say, while I am not a Free Speech Abolutist, I am very confused. I didn't know you could a…
David TC in reply to pillsy on Open Mic for the Week of 4/14/2025I think it's worth reminding people that the Republicans are setting precedent after precedent that…