Roque,

Some of the Sunni groups in Anbar are Islamists, some I would say are not. So on that point Roy is mistaken imo. And by Islamists there I mean his Islamo-nationalists. The al-Qaeda in Iraq group represented an actual attempt--albeit one that will never have any chance of success--of a new caliphate. A real rejection of nation-state basis of world order. A man like Zarqawi hated Hamas. But Roy is I think correct that the surge issue was accepting the reality of a series of distinct actors, many of whom were armed and had committed acts we would generally label as terror. And yet somehow they had some nationalistic/local political fight and had local/national aims. Unlike again AQI.

When you cite Tibi (describing the meaning of Islamist), I think that is their rhetoric, but in actual political practice (Roy's point) they look more like nationalists. The rhetoric to be sure is still there. It is still there in Iran. But in practice, Iran has to emphasize Persian nationalism, anti-Western imperialism because large swaths of the populations have rejected the revolution and while they still use the language, they are cynical enough to realize it ain't gonna happen. All these groups become conservative, once they get some hold on power. The hardcore revolutionaries will always be living in the caves in other words.

As to how will we know Hamas will be sincere? I don't know. How did they know with the Sunni groups in Iraq? Is there some element (even there) of groups playing both sides? Of course. This is politics. If they do play both sides then they are ferreted out, only proving it would seem to me your sense of their intentions.

My own sense is that Hamas could be pressured by other Arab groups. When the other Arab countries signed on to the Saudi-led Road Map in Riyadh in 2007, Hamas interestingly did not comment. The first time it was done (2002), they publicly rejected the document. The first go round there was still a major split among many Arab countries. The second time it was far more unanimous and Hamas had to keep quiet. That to me signaled a huge amount.

FYI: Hamas' exiled political (more radical leader) Meshaal has called for the West to finally engage Hamas.
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