Gotcha; I didn't phrase my comment on negotiating very well... I meant more that there isn't really a negotiating partner for either side; but the issue will settle close to this line as Personhood and 14th amendment gains traction. How close to 12-weeks or 20-weeks depends, I think, on when the settlement comes. Or not at all.
I appreciate you're looking at some sort of pro-choice negotiated stance, but it's not a negotiation.
-No restriction at all on abortion at all in the 1st trimester
-a very clear but narrow exemptions to the restrictions/bans oin 2nd and 3rd trimester abortions for incest/rape/the life of the mother and public funding for abortions in those trimesters that met those narrow exemptions.
Total defeat for my team.
But my bigger point, honestly, is the shift to 14th amendment and the abandonment of the Originalist game. Not sure if it comes in to play as early as Mississippi case, but it's coming. It may take a while, but I think it will win over time.
No, you guys are reading this wrong. My point is pretty simple and the data backs it up... if you want to guaranty 99% access to abortion and remove the worst optics to your cause you take the offer of 1% post 21 week abortions off the table and get everything (but that tiny sliver) as the baseline.
The really strange 30% driving the madness on your side are the weird people who won't trade the 1%.
I guess I'm surprised y'all don't see it... it has nothing to do with the Pro-Life team granting the other side victory... and it's not a compromise.
Maybe this will help... the 20wk ban in Ohio that saw a lot of breathless press on the Pro-Choice side as the end of abortion and the Pro-Life side as a massive victory would be the weird sort of end to the very public issue where the side claiming disaster would have won and the team declaring victory would have lost and the status quo would prevail.
According to CDC:
The majority of abortions in 2018 took place early in gestation: 92.2% of abortions were performed at ≤13 weeks’ gestation; a smaller number of abortions (6.9%) were performed at 14–20 weeks’ gestation, and even fewer (1.0%) were performed at ≥21 weeks’ gestation.
I concede that the 'issue' is completely driven as a funding op at this point and things like this prove my point rather than illustrate 'wishful' thinking.
As a pro-life and pro-process/order guy, I'm not a fan of gimcrack legal innovations with unintended downstream consequences, so there are a number of things I could see SCOTUS sending back to TX for non-Abortion related reasons. This seems to be a law that isn't the sort of law we'd like to see ushered in to general practice (if the summaries I've read are accurate).
That said, I think there will be substantive 14th Amendment challenges that will accomplish much the same and will be upheld... the compromise 'originalist' position of throwing it back to the states I think is dead. I've long said on this site that the power to 'win' the Abortion debate was always in the hands of the left... a European model with strict bans after 12-, 16-, or even 20-weeks (even more so if made a State-by-state issue) would have satisfied the mushy middle and deadened the wind. But, I think the Right has learned from the Left and everything will be 14th amendment from here on out. Good luck being on the wrong side of the 14th.
Hmmn... I can see a collective benefit that might trickle down to a few top team sports... e.g. a star linebacker and his mates who make-up the ferocious four. Which is why I think there's a bigger potential for Colleges themselves to pump-up the semi-pro aspect - as long as they can keep a piece as a side-business.
But for the niche sports? Lottery cards for once in a decade (generation) stars?... I suppose if I squint I could see book money for a top fencer endorsing stuff? But even when my boys were rated I'm not sure we knew who any top fencers were.
Then again... Notre Dame used to be [checks google] is a Fencing Powerhouse... so viva NIL!
Did I ever tell you that as a lowly Freshman I did a Fencing PE rotation (WE STILL HAD PE) and my teacher was Yves Auriol? Back then (not sure if it's still the case) ND was adamant that every teacher had to teach undergrads (ok, maybe not Lou Holtz)... it's also how I stumbled into a class with Alasdair MacIntyre (and other lesser luminaries).
Just got back from a short family reunion at Cinnamon Beach, FL... cousins re-acquainted with cousins and realized our youngest had never even met Uncle M/Aunt E. My mom had to undergo Breast Cancer treatment last year with minimal contact from family... so a big post-op-recovery party.
Had a professional take pictures of everyone which turned out to be, let's say, 17% better than the digital photos we snapped along side him with our phones. Mostly we off-loaded the annoying cat-herding aspect of the photo shoot to a stranger, so we could be united in our ire against the other.
So this weekend we're doing all the stuff that needs doing after a week away... laundry (oh, our dryer is still broken), mowing the lawns, beating the pastures into temporary submission... etc.
Plus enjoying both Labor Day weekends... this one and the one following, which will mark our 25th anniversary. Send gift ideas.
Good question... I think it depends on whether the Schools simply become the owners of the Brand/Business for Semi-Pro sports and drop the whole 'scholar-athlete' nonsense. If that happens, Pac-12 goes semi-pro.
If the schools have to divest to some sort of un-branded Semi-Pro league? There's a chance schools will hold-out that they can 'break' the semi-pro league and go back to status-quo ante... hey, there's a semi-pro league if you don't want to play here for free.
Good point... my observation is more banal in that with the loss of order we lose some confidence that we've got hold of the onboarding situation... not that we don't have a vetting process at all, but now that we've shifted from slow withdrawal over the next several months to the largest airlift in history... there are bound to be cracks in the system.
The second point could fit in to your comment... that is, will anyone [properly vetted] be 'radicalized' by friends/family left behind who may be murdered/executed/beaten/economically destroyed as a result of things like [LF3] and/or the fact that 'the West' simply came in a big-footed their country for 20-years then left. Don't know, but we may be evaluating the costs down stream.
Heh... like this is April 2020. Congress has the power to address the shitty aid-plan they passed... and if they need more time, they can extend a moratorium while they price that in to a hopefully less shitty aid plan.
3. It would be dumb to give this authority to the CDC, ever. Ever, ever.
4. SCOTUS would/should strike down the delegation should it even happen.
5. If congress sees this as an important matter, they can legislate a relief act.
I'm not sure Congress could simply forbid evictions (that would indeed be an indirect form of taking) but they could (and did) craft legislation to aid people in paying these bills... it could go to renters by need, it could go to landlords by proof of deficit, it could go to citizens as stimulus... the remedy to the problem is so open to solutions that the only way we *shouldn't* do it, is by some sort of departmental fiat. Ever.
The fact that the relief acts they have done are pretty bad is a lesson in crafting good relief acts, not a reason for the Executive/CDC to usurp powers it can't possibly have.
Seems more like the Fashion Model who was rejected but has found a career as Fashion Designer. Knows the industry but no longer gives an f about the powers-that-be.
[LF1] More than likely... that's the point of an orderly withdrawal where you protect your collaborators... In the current situation? Still likely to be fine, but we've introduced a level of chaos that suggests we're not 100% in control of who's getting in/out and we also have to account for whether people are experiencing this as a betrayal/loss even as they are forced to leave... possibly exacerbated by things like [LF3]. I put it in the category of avoidable risk that we've introduced by our own failures. No real way around it given the circumstances [that we created], but something to possibly monitor and look to remedy as we now have additional responsibilities to the folks we're bringing back.
[LF3] Unpossible
[LF4] As someone on the edge of this, I feel like the moment has come and gone... hard to explain really... but whatever interest city-folk have in food production is quickly crushed by commodity pricing.
[LF5] We all live in a post-25th Amendment world now.
[LF6] Of course NIL was going to become a recruiting tool... that was a given.
[LF7] Congrats on the article, liked it... thought maybe a couple more dots you were connecting could have been a bit more specific? It had the feel of something slightly over-edited... hey, free internet advice!
On “Texas Abortion Law Takes Effect: Read Both SCOTUS Arguments For Yourself”
Gotcha; I didn't phrase my comment on negotiating very well... I meant more that there isn't really a negotiating partner for either side; but the issue will settle close to this line as Personhood and 14th amendment gains traction. How close to 12-weeks or 20-weeks depends, I think, on when the settlement comes. Or not at all.
"
If a baby has died in the womb, the procedure is not an abortion. Should make it even easier to legislate then.
"
I appreciate you're looking at some sort of pro-choice negotiated stance, but it's not a negotiation.
-No restriction at all on abortion at all in the 1st trimester
-a very clear but narrow exemptions to the restrictions/bans oin 2nd and 3rd trimester abortions for incest/rape/the life of the mother and public funding for abortions in those trimesters that met those narrow exemptions.
Total defeat for my team.
But my bigger point, honestly, is the shift to 14th amendment and the abandonment of the Originalist game. Not sure if it comes in to play as early as Mississippi case, but it's coming. It may take a while, but I think it will win over time.
"
No, you guys are reading this wrong. My point is pretty simple and the data backs it up... if you want to guaranty 99% access to abortion and remove the worst optics to your cause you take the offer of 1% post 21 week abortions off the table and get everything (but that tiny sliver) as the baseline.
The really strange 30% driving the madness on your side are the weird people who won't trade the 1%.
"
I guess I'm surprised y'all don't see it... it has nothing to do with the Pro-Life team granting the other side victory... and it's not a compromise.
Maybe this will help... the 20wk ban in Ohio that saw a lot of breathless press on the Pro-Choice side as the end of abortion and the Pro-Life side as a massive victory would be the weird sort of end to the very public issue where the side claiming disaster would have won and the team declaring victory would have lost and the status quo would prevail.
According to CDC:
The majority of abortions in 2018 took place early in gestation: 92.2% of abortions were performed at ≤13 weeks’ gestation; a smaller number of abortions (6.9%) were performed at 14–20 weeks’ gestation, and even fewer (1.0%) were performed at ≥21 weeks’ gestation.
I concede that the 'issue' is completely driven as a funding op at this point and things like this prove my point rather than illustrate 'wishful' thinking.
On ““Deplorables” Turns Five Years Old”
Yes, but counterpoint:
On “Hayek III: Free Will and Freedom to Choose”
All of humanity through the ages of ages is excited for the answer to this question. :-)
On “Texas Abortion Law Takes Effect: Read Both SCOTUS Arguments For Yourself”
As a pro-life and pro-process/order guy, I'm not a fan of gimcrack legal innovations with unintended downstream consequences, so there are a number of things I could see SCOTUS sending back to TX for non-Abortion related reasons. This seems to be a law that isn't the sort of law we'd like to see ushered in to general practice (if the summaries I've read are accurate).
That said, I think there will be substantive 14th Amendment challenges that will accomplish much the same and will be upheld... the compromise 'originalist' position of throwing it back to the states I think is dead. I've long said on this site that the power to 'win' the Abortion debate was always in the hands of the left... a European model with strict bans after 12-, 16-, or even 20-weeks (even more so if made a State-by-state issue) would have satisfied the mushy middle and deadened the wind. But, I think the Right has learned from the Left and everything will be 14th amendment from here on out. Good luck being on the wrong side of the 14th.
On “Hayek III: Free Will and Freedom to Choose”
Eh, freedom has always been a sucker's game. What is Hayek's Theory of Will?
On “Hurricane Ida: Live Stream And Open Thread”
I love alternative building projects and have attempted to get one or two started on my property... in general they seem to go like this:
Step One: Get a really big balloon.
Step Two: there is no step two because, um, balloon.
But I'm with you in spirit.
On “Weekend Plans Post: The Third Gate of Summer (Edit: It is the weekend *BEFORE* the third gate of summer)”
Yeah... more commonly known as a bush-hog. Theoretically would cut fabric too, if we weren't all particular about the length or the width or your arm.
My wife has one of those fabric cutters and some magic board that makes the whole thing seem like witchcraft.
"
Rotary cutter ... it's like cutting your hair with a flowbee... makes things shorter, but not necessarily better.
We made bank a the cull goats... the main goats are still here... in fact just had a baby goat the day after we got back... so +1 goats.
On “Linky Friday: An Interminable Week Edition”
Hmmn... I can see a collective benefit that might trickle down to a few top team sports... e.g. a star linebacker and his mates who make-up the ferocious four. Which is why I think there's a bigger potential for Colleges themselves to pump-up the semi-pro aspect - as long as they can keep a piece as a side-business.
But for the niche sports? Lottery cards for once in a decade (generation) stars?... I suppose if I squint I could see book money for a top fencer endorsing stuff? But even when my boys were rated I'm not sure we knew who any top fencers were.
Then again... Notre Dame
used to be[checks google] is a Fencing Powerhouse... so viva NIL!Did I ever tell you that as a lowly Freshman I did a Fencing PE rotation (WE STILL HAD PE) and my teacher was Yves Auriol? Back then (not sure if it's still the case) ND was adamant that every teacher had to teach undergrads (ok, maybe not Lou Holtz)... it's also how I stumbled into a class with Alasdair MacIntyre (and other lesser luminaries).
On “Weekend Plans Post: The Third Gate of Summer (Edit: It is the weekend *BEFORE* the third gate of summer)”
Just got back from a short family reunion at Cinnamon Beach, FL... cousins re-acquainted with cousins and realized our youngest had never even met Uncle M/Aunt E. My mom had to undergo Breast Cancer treatment last year with minimal contact from family... so a big post-op-recovery party.
Had a professional take pictures of everyone which turned out to be, let's say, 17% better than the digital photos we snapped along side him with our phones. Mostly we off-loaded the annoying cat-herding aspect of the photo shoot to a stranger, so we could be united in our ire against the other.
So this weekend we're doing all the stuff that needs doing after a week away... laundry (oh, our dryer is still broken), mowing the lawns, beating the pastures into temporary submission... etc.
Plus enjoying both Labor Day weekends... this one and the one following, which will mark our 25th anniversary. Send gift ideas.
On “Linky Friday: An Interminable Week Edition”
Good question... I think it depends on whether the Schools simply become the owners of the Brand/Business for Semi-Pro sports and drop the whole 'scholar-athlete' nonsense. If that happens, Pac-12 goes semi-pro.
If the schools have to divest to some sort of un-branded Semi-Pro league? There's a chance schools will hold-out that they can 'break' the semi-pro league and go back to status-quo ante... hey, there's a semi-pro league if you don't want to play here for free.
"
I'm *hoping* it fixes Notre Dame football... talk about unfair advantages.
(and I haven't believed in college sports for about 25 years)
Assuming you mean LF6, 'cause I haven't quite processed the impact on college sports for LF3 yet... still working on my hot-take on that one.
On “SCOTUS Lifts Eviction Moratorium, Again: Read It For Yourself”
Polity is a suicide pact; a constitution is the thing that prevents the suicide from happening.
On “Linky Friday: An Interminable Week Edition”
Good point... my observation is more banal in that with the loss of order we lose some confidence that we've got hold of the onboarding situation... not that we don't have a vetting process at all, but now that we've shifted from slow withdrawal over the next several months to the largest airlift in history... there are bound to be cracks in the system.
The second point could fit in to your comment... that is, will anyone [properly vetted] be 'radicalized' by friends/family left behind who may be murdered/executed/beaten/economically destroyed as a result of things like [LF3] and/or the fact that 'the West' simply came in a big-footed their country for 20-years then left. Don't know, but we may be evaluating the costs down stream.
On “SCOTUS Lifts Eviction Moratorium, Again: Read It For Yourself”
Which, by the way is the Adrian Vermeule replacement theory to Originalism on the right: Common Good Constitutionalism
Put it in the 'you'll miss Originalism when it's gone' category.
p.s. comment in moderation for potty mouthing.
"
Heh... like this is April 2020. Congress has the power to address the shitty aid-plan they passed... and if they need more time, they can extend a moratorium while they price that in to a hopefully less shitty aid plan.
On “Linky Friday: An Interminable Week Edition”
Ah, the sweet smell of freedom. Alas, the polloi of are fickle.
On “SCOTUS Lifts Eviction Moratorium, Again: Read It For Yourself”
3. It would be dumb to give this authority to the CDC, ever. Ever, ever.
4. SCOTUS would/should strike down the delegation should it even happen.
5. If congress sees this as an important matter, they can legislate a relief act.
I'm not sure Congress could simply forbid evictions (that would indeed be an indirect form of taking) but they could (and did) craft legislation to aid people in paying these bills... it could go to renters by need, it could go to landlords by proof of deficit, it could go to citizens as stimulus... the remedy to the problem is so open to solutions that the only way we *shouldn't* do it, is by some sort of departmental fiat. Ever.
The fact that the relief acts they have done are pretty bad is a lesson in crafting good relief acts, not a reason for the Executive/CDC to usurp powers it can't possibly have.
On “Linky Friday: An Interminable Week Edition”
Seems more like the Fashion Model who was rejected but has found a career as Fashion Designer. Knows the industry but no longer gives an f about the powers-that-be.
"
[LF1] More than likely... that's the point of an orderly withdrawal where you protect your collaborators... In the current situation? Still likely to be fine, but we've introduced a level of chaos that suggests we're not 100% in control of who's getting in/out and we also have to account for whether people are experiencing this as a betrayal/loss even as they are forced to leave... possibly exacerbated by things like [LF3]. I put it in the category of avoidable risk that we've introduced by our own failures. No real way around it given the circumstances [that we created], but something to possibly monitor and look to remedy as we now have additional responsibilities to the folks we're bringing back.
[LF3] Unpossible
[LF4] As someone on the edge of this, I feel like the moment has come and gone... hard to explain really... but whatever interest city-folk have in food production is quickly crushed by commodity pricing.
[LF5] We all live in a post-25th Amendment world now.
[LF6] Of course NIL was going to become a recruiting tool... that was a given.
[LF7] Congrats on the article, liked it... thought maybe a couple more dots you were connecting could have been a bit more specific? It had the feel of something slightly over-edited... hey, free internet advice!
"
Dang, doesn't he know he's undermining the cause?