Yeah, there's clearly tension out there between Clinton/Obama continuity and MSNBC stating that the solution is more aggressively Leftist candidates. Hard for me to see how that does better in VA... honestly McAuliffe and NOVA are a good fit -- absent radical alienation.
I suppose it depends on what aspects we emphasize as Delta and what we emphasize as Alpha.
First, I reject your priors and substitute my own: this was a big day for the American Solidarity Party, the voters clearly demonstrated...
As I noted pre-election, the Education 'issue' is a both/and sort of thing... Covid response (17%) combined with Education issues (14%) are intertwined... the McAuliffe Mega-Gaffe on Parents: "I don't think parents should be telling schools what they should teach" ties in to the Parent experience with the School systems during Covid. There was a lot of social capital consumed by School systems that left some voter tanks empty in areas that went for Biden. They still went for Dems, but with double digit defections.
As far as gaffes go, this ranks up there with 'The 47%', 'Deplorables' and probably is most analogous to 'Putting lots of Coal Miners out of work'.
The other thing that struck me was how the Red areas voted even harder than last time... I'm sure Dems will want to say that it is 'proof' that Youngkin is just like Trump... a fact not in evidence anywhere but really weak McAuliffe ads very nearly comparing favorite colors of Trump and Youngkin as proof that Youngkin is the SAME AS TRUMP. (Seriously, the single most shown ad was a clip of Youngkin acknowledging that Global Warming is a thing, but not sure what exactly was causing it -- compared to Trump saying a similar thing -- Underpants Gnome Meme -- Youngkin is Racist) Maybe Youngkin *is* just like Trump, I don't know, I suspect he's more like Romney and, well, the guys in the Lincoln Project, but if the campaign is going to be based on linking everything to Trump, you need things to link.
That said, I remain opposed to the Republican Party -- electing a Carlyle CEO doesn't impress me, I already know the traditional ways he's going to sell out his voters -- and while I'm pleased to see McAuliffe lose, I'm not excited to see Youngkin win.
[Full disclosure, I thought the Suburbs would flinch and McAuliffe would win a 'close' but not nail-biting race]
Updates have slowed to a crawl... so probably won't see outcome until tomorrow. But in any scenario, we can likely conclude that my prognosticating powers have once again proven useless... In the Deadpool 2 universe, I am the Peter of Prognosticators.
Whelp... 95% of the vote is now in from Fairfax... 88% all of Virginia is in... Youngkin is up 125k votes. Hard to see how McAuliffe makes up the votes.
MSNBC: Meanwhile, Eric Adams has won NYC (in case you were wondering).
Decision Desk called Virginia about an hour ago ... seems way early to me... but I'm just a liberal arts major trying to do fractions and outstanding vote totals in my head.
I mean, when I look at the map it looks like McAuliffe should still win... but these MSNBC people seem to know things that I don't and are already doing the post mortem.
Nicole Wallace (?):
"Critical Race theory, which isn't real turned the suburbs 15 points to the Trump insurrection endorsed Republican. What do Democrats do about that?"
Heh... it isn't real, but its losing the suburbs... those rubes.
I mean, it's honestly too close to even call and MSNBC is losing their sh*t.
Hmmn... Loudon county is not breaking as hard for McAuliffe as the 'experts' say he needs. Still early... but MSNBC has used the word, 'concerning.' Still looks like it'll just be raw votes in NOVA outpacing all else. 8.18pm
I'm saying that Public Schools couldn't begin to formulate what the interests of Students would even be without reference to what the Parents who would commission such an undertaking. No matter what you *imagine* are the interests of Students would be referential to what the Parents agree are those interests.
On “About Last Night: Youngkin Wins In Virginia, GOP Has Strong Night”
Eh, the narrative cuts two ways.
Turn-out was high across the board... and McAuliffe got more votes than any previous Dem Governor, except Youngkin got more more votes.
"
Yeah, there's clearly tension out there between Clinton/Obama continuity and MSNBC stating that the solution is more aggressively Leftist candidates. Hard for me to see how that does better in VA... honestly McAuliffe and NOVA are a good fit -- absent radical alienation.
I suppose it depends on what aspects we emphasize as Delta and what we emphasize as Alpha.
"
Yes, this is a good point. #banallprimaries
"
First, I reject your priors and substitute my own: this was a big day for the American Solidarity Party, the voters clearly demonstrated...
As I noted pre-election, the Education 'issue' is a both/and sort of thing... Covid response (17%) combined with Education issues (14%) are intertwined... the McAuliffe Mega-Gaffe on Parents: "I don't think parents should be telling schools what they should teach" ties in to the Parent experience with the School systems during Covid. There was a lot of social capital consumed by School systems that left some voter tanks empty in areas that went for Biden. They still went for Dems, but with double digit defections.
As far as gaffes go, this ranks up there with 'The 47%', 'Deplorables' and probably is most analogous to 'Putting lots of Coal Miners out of work'.
The other thing that struck me was how the Red areas voted even harder than last time... I'm sure Dems will want to say that it is 'proof' that Youngkin is just like Trump... a fact not in evidence anywhere but really weak McAuliffe ads very nearly comparing favorite colors of Trump and Youngkin as proof that Youngkin is the SAME AS TRUMP. (Seriously, the single most shown ad was a clip of Youngkin acknowledging that Global Warming is a thing, but not sure what exactly was causing it -- compared to Trump saying a similar thing -- Underpants Gnome Meme -- Youngkin is Racist) Maybe Youngkin *is* just like Trump, I don't know, I suspect he's more like Romney and, well, the guys in the Lincoln Project, but if the campaign is going to be based on linking everything to Trump, you need things to link.
That said, I remain opposed to the Republican Party -- electing a Carlyle CEO doesn't impress me, I already know the traditional ways he's going to sell out his voters -- and while I'm pleased to see McAuliffe lose, I'm not excited to see Youngkin win.
[Full disclosure, I thought the Suburbs would flinch and McAuliffe would win a 'close' but not nail-biting race]
On “From CNBC: Early voting hits record high in Virginia ahead of dead-heat governor’s race”
Updates have slowed to a crawl... so probably won't see outcome until tomorrow. But in any scenario, we can likely conclude that my prognosticating powers have once again proven useless... In the Deadpool 2 universe, I am the Peter of Prognosticators.
"
94% in... getting tighter.
Youngkin has 65k lead with approx 190k votes still out.
McAuliffe needs to capture 68% of all the outstanding votes to eliminate the gap.
Guessing it narrows to a 1% Youngkin win... but that's just a guess.
"
Man, SW and Rural Virginia voted HARDER.
"
Zoinks... Et tu New Jersey?
"
Good call... I thought the suburbs would flinch.
"
La donna è mobile
"
Whelp... 95% of the vote is now in from Fairfax... 88% all of Virginia is in... Youngkin is up 125k votes. Hard to see how McAuliffe makes up the votes.
10:18 two hours exactly after first post.
"
MSNBC: Youngkin won the Karen vote. White women are the worst.
"
The 1? Terry McAuliffe in 2013...
"
There are more elections upcoming that y'all can double down on.
"
MSNBC: Meanwhile, Eric Adams has won NYC (in case you were wondering).
Decision Desk called Virginia about an hour ago ... seems way early to me... but I'm just a liberal arts major trying to do fractions and outstanding vote totals in my head.
"
She's wrong. Everyone thinks she's wrong. Even the people who still voted for McAuliffe thinks she's wrong.
"
Holy sh*t... Larry Sabato just said that the McAuliffe team told him it is a "blood bath"
Blaming Congress for not passing the Bills.
We're officially in the "time for our Priors to explain things"
"
Nope... I hit pause/rewind and transcribed.
I mean, when I look at the map it looks like McAuliffe should still win... but these MSNBC people seem to know things that I don't and are already doing the post mortem.
"
Nope. Morons.
Heh... MSNBC keeps referringto : Trump Insurrection Approved Candidate, Youngkin.
"
Still early, but MSNBC is in full panic.
Nicole Wallace (?):
"Critical Race theory, which isn't real turned the suburbs 15 points to the Trump insurrection endorsed Republican. What do Democrats do about that?"
Heh... it isn't real, but its losing the suburbs... those rubes.
I mean, it's honestly too close to even call and MSNBC is losing their sh*t.
"
RutRoh Dems... MSNBC is asking what lessons Dems should learn if McAuliffe loses.
Pundit says: Need to stop running Moderates! Need to excite the base.
"
Hmmn... Loudon county is not breaking as hard for McAuliffe as the 'experts' say he needs. Still early... but MSNBC has used the word, 'concerning.' Still looks like it'll just be raw votes in NOVA outpacing all else. 8.18pm
On “The Lincoln Project Takes a Trip to the Theater”
This about sums it up.
On “From CNBC: Early voting hits record high in Virginia ahead of dead-heat governor’s race”
I'm saying that Public Schools couldn't begin to formulate what the interests of Students would even be without reference to what the Parents who would commission such an undertaking. No matter what you *imagine* are the interests of Students would be referential to what the Parents agree are those interests.
"
No, not terribly interesting that.