From CNBC: Early voting hits record high in Virginia ahead of dead-heat governor’s race

Jaybird

Jaybird is Birdmojo on Xbox Live and Jaybirdmojo on Playstation's network. He's been playing consoles since the Atari 2600 and it was Zork that taught him how to touch-type. If you've got a song for Wednesday, a commercial for Saturday, a recommendation for Tuesday, an essay for Monday, or, heck, just a handful a questions, fire off an email to AskJaybird-at-gmail.com

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80 Responses

  1. Jaybird
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    says:

    Drop your predictions here!

    Here’s mine:

    McAuliffe wins, barely. It’s not going to be finalized until tomorrow. This will result in Conspiracy Theories like you wouldn’t believe. There will also be verified stories of irregularities that will contribute to the Conspiracy Theories.Report

  2. Marchmaine
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    says:

    I’m going with McAuliffe too.

    My theory is that people (esp in NOVA) were more than willing to signal to pollsters/media that they are unhappy with Dem/Lib Education policies… but that a critical mass won’t actually pull the lever for Youngkin.

    And by Education, it includes the media darlings of CRT and School Boards, but the real deep seated anger is with Covid response and the exposure of the ‘True Fact’ that Education Policy serves Education Professionals, not parents.

    As a result, wrong lessons learned by all. So that much stays the same.Report

    • Jaybird in reply to Marchmaine
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      says:

      I don’t know if it will remain a dead heat or not. (Let’s define it… within 1%, let’s say.)

      But if it does, that means that “TRUMP!” is not as persuasive to GOTV as will be necessary come 2024. (Unless, maybe, Trump’s on the ticket.)Report

      • Marchmaine in reply to Jaybird
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        says:

        I think McAuliffe wins by 2-3%… which is to say, not particularly close; but golly-gee only a candidate as inept as McAuliffe would win by only 2%.

        If there was a party untainted by Trump? Youngkin wins easily.Report

    • Kazzy in reply to Marchmaine
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      says:

      “…exposure of the ‘True Fact’ that Education Policy serves Education Professionals, not parents.”

      I think it is a bit more complicated than this but… interesting you say “not parents” and not “not students.”Report

      • Marchmaine in reply to Kazzy
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        says:

        No, not terribly interesting that.Report

        • Kazzy in reply to Marchmaine
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          says:

          So is it your position that public schools should prioritize the interests of parents over the interests of students?Report

          • Jaybird in reply to Kazzy
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            says:

            How different are the interests of the parents with the interests of the students?

            I mean, if the students want more ice cream socials and less homework, how much more emphasis should that get over whatever the hell it is that parents would want for their kids? (“Teach them to say precocious things that I may quote them and get clout on Tik-Tok.”)Report

            • Kazzy in reply to Jaybird
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              says:

              Wants and interests are not the same.

              What if parents want the kids learning that 2+2=5?Report

              • Jaybird in reply to Kazzy
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                says:

                The closest real-life example that I can come up with against that example is Young Earth Creationism.

                My biology teacher, instead, taught evolution. (You wouldn’t believe some of the wrongthink that also got taught in biology class in the 80’s, though.)Report

              • Michael Cain in reply to Jaybird
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                says:

                Which seems just so strange to me. Rural Iowa and suburban Nebraska in the late 60s and early 70s taught the prevailing scientific view on biology. Evolution was a given.Report

              • Jaybird in reply to Michael Cain
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                says:

                Hey, that’s what *I* got taught too.

                But I was given literature in the meantime by such organizations as The Caleb Campaign (now the guy seems to be with the Worldview Academy) and trained to be on the other side of that dialectic.Report

              • Brandon Berg in reply to Kazzy
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                says:

                The main dispute now seems to be that parents want schools to teach children that 2 + 2 = 4, while schools are hiring DEI consultants to tell teachers that the idea of a single correct answer to the question of what 2 + 2 equals is a white supremacist myth.Report

          • Marchmaine in reply to Kazzy
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            says:

            I’m saying that Public Schools couldn’t begin to formulate what the interests of Students would even be without reference to what the Parents who would commission such an undertaking. No matter what you *imagine* are the interests of Students would be referential to what the Parents agree are those interests.Report

            • Kazzy in reply to Marchmaine
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              says:

              For transparency, I am a private school teacher and public school parent.

              I do not agree with prioritizing the interests of teachers over parents or students and was dismayed by much of what was coming out of teachers circles (and/or their representatives) last year and even this.

              But I think an ideal system would have the right people in place to identify what is best for students, even if that may be at odds with what parents want.

              But… what’s ideal and what is are very different.Report

    • Marchmaine in reply to Marchmaine
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      says:

      Hmmn… Loudon county is not breaking as hard for McAuliffe as the ‘experts’ say he needs. Still early… but MSNBC has used the word, ‘concerning.’ Still looks like it’ll just be raw votes in NOVA outpacing all else. 8.18pmReport

    • Marchmaine in reply to Marchmaine
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      says:

      Updates have slowed to a crawl… so probably won’t see outcome until tomorrow. But in any scenario, we can likely conclude that my prognosticating powers have once again proven useless… In the Deadpool 2 universe, I am the Peter of Prognosticators.Report

  3. Philip H
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    says:

    so that’s a 6X increase in early voting. granted some of that is probably due to legislative changes since, but I read that as a highly motivated electorate. Remains to be seen who was highly motivated – though national trends say it benefits Democrats.Report

  4. North
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    says:

    I also am predicting a close McAuliffe victory based, primarily on one data point: The polling has a systematic problem identifying and tracking Trump supporting voters which makes them skew slightly left but ONLY when Trump is on the ballot. Since Trump is not on the ballot I don’t think his voters will be sufficiently activated so McAuliffe skates through to a landing, possibly so close he knocks the tail on the deck when he comes in.

    But if Youngkin pulls it out I would be glumly unsurprised.Report

  5. Chip Daniels
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    says:

    I’m going with “Very Close”, say less than 2 points.

    Which is the point I keep repeating, that almost a majority, or very slim majority, wants some form of Trumpism.

    Even if the Dems win, we are going to be in this fight for a long while yet. Even if we lose, we will need to fight for a long while yet.
    It’s going to be about a decade before America sees anything like a political consensus.Report

    • Jaybird in reply to Chip Daniels
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      says:

      When was the last time we had what you would consider a political consensus?Report

      • Chip Daniels in reply to Jaybird
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        says:

        You’ve heard of the Sun and Moon theory?

        It says that when there is a strong dominant party, like the New Deal Coalition or the Reagan Coalition, the opposite party, out of necessity, adopts a softer version of the same, a reflective moon of the FDR/ Reagan sun.

        So like in the 50s, the Republican Party platform always pounded the drum in favor of labor unions and Social Security, or like how Bill Clinton promised to end welfare as we know it.

        Right now, neither party is dominant enough to force the other to compromise, since either one is close enough can win outright, but only by a razor thin margin.Report

        • Saul Degraw in reply to Chip Daniels
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          says:

          I am 41. I know a lot of people my age who are married, have kids, have mortgages, and that other typical American middle-class life stuff. I also know lots of people my age who are not married, do not have kids, are well-educated but never quite got something you would call a career, and are still living with roommates in their early to mid-40s. Some of the unmarried and childless people made that a conscious choice. Others seem to have had this state of perma-25 year old status thrust upon them because of factors beyond their control largely such as suffering through 9/11 and multiple recessions in their adult life, and now the first global pandemic in 100 years.

          Most of my friends have left politics that are either “reform can save the day” or “burn it all down and start again.” The problem with the burn it all down and start again folks is that they are a minority that does not realize it and can’t quite convince the majority that BS Jobs by Dan Graeber is the best book ever written. But I do think there is a substantial portion of the 20-40 something population that did everything it was told to do education wise and are now stuck with huge student debt bills and precarious prospects compared to their elders. “More neoliberalism/triangulation” will not help this group.

          I get a sense that a lot of Americans feel like everything is literally and metaphoically broken and new media is exposing how the sausage gets made in Congress too much. There are still lots of older Boomers and Gen Xers who are stuck in “old economy Steve” mode and this group can be around for decades considering the youngest of them are probably only 46 or 47. But those 46 and 47 year olds graduated into the Clinton boom years and tech 1.0. I graduated into post-9/11 and the tech bust recession.

          The oldies are styming real progress in BBB and people will just blame Democrats instead of stating “well if the Democrats had bigger majorities, Manchin and Sinema would be cranky but harmless eccentrics instead of unofficial co-Presidents.Report

          • Koz in reply to Saul Degraw
            Ignored
            says:

            The problem with the burn it all down and start again folks is that they are a minority that does not realize it and can’t quite convince the majority that BS Jobs by Dan Graeber is the best book ever written. But I do think there is a substantial portion of the 20-40 something population that did everything it was told to do education wise and are now stuck with huge student debt bills and precarious prospects compared to their elders. “More neoliberalism/triangulation” will not help this group.

            I endorse, at least mostly. The man’s name was David Graeber, not Dan, a London-based American Marxist who unfortunately died recently. In fact, his twitter account is still online even if Mr Graeber himself isn’t.

            In any event, I’ve read a fair amount of his stuff (though not his book); and for the most part I found it very impressive. Among other things, it has been almost completely ignored by the Right and mainstream punditry, but there are some relevant circumstances where the hard Left is friendlier to the Right (I say friendly but really it’s probably better described as ideologically simpatico) compared to mainstream liberals.

            And those circumstances are primarily about institutionalism. For example, I am much much more supportive of the political aspirations of Bernie Sanders compared to Liz Warren. And I have much more respect for the worldview of Liz Warren than that of Kamala Harris.

            Or, there’s a very weird intellectual lacuna on the Left where the ideology of cultural Marxists is a much much different thing than the cultural critiques of traditional Marxist (almost directly opposed sometimes even).

            The funny thing is, for most of us this sort of thing seems offhand to be associated with the political fringes, but really it’s not. It’s really about competing centrists, where one group is protected by jobs in bureaucracies in government, universities, hospitals, and the like. And they’re political/cultural focus is largely about reinforcing the institutional power of those bureaucracies. And there’s another group who’s over-educated but underemployed and often carrying debt (as Saul said), whose economic and social aspirations are often thwarted by those very same bureaucracies.Report

    • Philip H in reply to Chip Daniels
      Ignored
      says:

      Which is the point I keep repeating, that almost a majority, or very slim majority, wants some form of Trumpism.

      To wit (allbeit from CNN):

      Just 1 in 3 Republicans say that they will trust that the 2024 results are “accurate” even if their preferred candidate doesn’t win. (By contrast 82% of Democrats and 68% of independents say the same.)

      While that number is the most stunning, it’s far from the only number in the poll that should be cause for concern as we look to future national elections.

      Consider:

      * Two thirds of Republican respondents said they have little to no trust that elections are fair.
      * Asked what the biggest threat to fair elections is, 34% of Republicans said it was voter fraud while 29% cited “vote tampering by the opposing political party.”
      * Three quarters of Republicans say that Trump has continued to contest the 2020 results because “mostly because he is right, there were real cases of fraud that changed the results.”

      This is a problem they created intentionally over decades to hold political power, which means it will be decades to undo IF it can be undone.

      (SOURCE – https://www.cnn.com/2021/11/02/politics/2024-election-election-fraud-trump/index.html)Report

  6. Jaybird
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    says:

    Turnout looks like it’s gonna set a record:

    Report

  7. Jaybird
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    says:

    Guys, guys, guys.

    We just have to normalize the narrative that the bad guys *STOLE* the election.Report

  8. Jaybird
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    says:

    Perspective:

    Report

    • Marchmaine in reply to Jaybird
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      says:

      The 1? Terry McAuliffe in 2013…Report

      • Saul Degraw in reply to Marchmaine
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        says:

        And he barely won in 2013. He won because a libertarian third party candidate received about 165K votes. Mos of the voters would have gone R and Cucinelli would have eeked out a narrow victory in 2013 but for a third party candidate.

        Though I have to admit that VA’s non consecutive terms only is a deeply stupid idea.Report

  9. KenB
    Ignored
    says:

    Ooh, Youngkin lead now below 1% — still time for everyone to have to rewrite their analyses.

    Edit – no, I think I need to go to bed, my arithmetic skills have turned in early.Report

  10. Saul Degraw
    Ignored
    says:

    Youngkin won but not by a margin that should make anyone happy.

    I don’t think CRT hysteria was enough to flip the VA one way or another. If this is true, McAuliffe outperformed Biden with college-educated white women but vastly under performed with non-college educated white women. Youngkin won the later group 75-25.

    CRT was a factor but I think this is more about residual anger about COVID school closures along with the general suckiness of the economy right now. Gas prices are high and people complain about those all the time and the supply-chain issues. There was an NPR article today on how we are living through skimpflation. Prices are generally the same but the service sucks more and it is the same as paying more for less. This should calm down but right now lots of people are angry and looking for people to blame.Report

  11. Kazzy
    Ignored
    says:

    Would this be a reasonably fair conclusion to draw after the last few election cycles?

    (# of people who support Democratic candidates) < (# of people who support Democratic policies) < (# of people who support general liberal ideology)Report

  12. Saul Degraw
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    says:

    Terry Mac received 1.57 million votes, this is more than Northam received in 2017. Democrats showed up, Republicans showed up. Biden -Youngkin voters are very real and seem to be white women without college degrees mainly.Report

  13. Kazzy
    Ignored
    says:

    NJ seems likely to go for Murph once mail ins are counted. Time will tell.Report

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