The ending of the azaleas season is finally arriving, so that means time for pollen abatement procedures; plenty of cleaning, scrubbing, and pressure washing on the agenda down here in the pines.
A few wild conspiracy theories, at least the remotely plausible ones not involving aliens, from this:
Rudy and Mueller are besties so he can get all the info
Rudy has contacts and dirt and can leverage the individual investigators of Mueller team
Trump wants Rudy under attorney/client privilege
Trump couldn't get any other lawyers to rep him
And its dangerous. There were people trying to dox the FISA judge when the HSCI memo's came out. Stop and think about the idea of doxing that type of official, regardless of your thoughts on FISA courts. And the really horrid part, some of those doing it are the ones raining privacy concerns from the ramparts until its an issue they don't like. Terrible.
Taking politics and academic issues out-I tried to just look at it as I would when I was a manager/supervisor: I cannot infringe your private personal speech. I can protect our employer once you purposefully included the organization and specific members into your private speech and implied their consent, protection, and agreement. If you are going to discipline, that would be the angle to take. Also depending on contractual agreements, openly discussing the amount of money you are making can be an issue for some folks, not sure if that is applicable here or not. I found the comments themselves horrid, but she is free to be horrid all she wants. It mostly came across to me as a person venting for attention, and I treated it as such.
It is in both the Higher Ed piece and also in Popehats, it didn't make the block quotes for sake of space. But yes, that also happened, basically she tweeted if anyone wanted to call her and posted a working mental health crisis line number.
I would agree. FOD from space would make a good sci-fi concept though. In the case I mentioned it was as simple as some jackass leaving a leatherman on the inlet for God knows why reason. Did enough flight line FOD walks that to this day I look at the tires on my car when I get in out of habit.
Makes sense perfect sense to me. I have peripheral knowledge compared to you, so wouldn't state as expert or guess, I appreciate you laying it out well. Hopefully others do as I've done today and read up on it.
Pilot distinctly said no fire to ATC, does that to your mind and guessing from afar, lean you one way or the other? I would assume something like FOD intake would react differently than inlet cowling failing for some other reason. I only bring this up because I saw a FOD intake that immediately flared into a fire, fortunately it was on the ground and quickly contained between A/C systems and crew chief being swift with the fire bottle.
There is a a line of thought to pursue here separate from the obvious tragedy of the lady who was killed, so in no way want to diminish that. But to your point-the airlines while getting the most important part mostly right, the safety, they have almost zero goodwill capitol built up with the public when things like this happen due to every lessening customer satisfaction. The customers are for the most part miserable, and rightly blame the airlines for that discomfort, so to their minds its a short leap to blaming them immediately when a tragedy strikes regardless of the statistical rarity of it. Going from overbooking and purposefully crowded conditions to "of course it was a matter of time till those cheapskates killed someone" is how that usually goes. And no amount of data will dissuade that emotion.
Believable enough. Driving in Germany and continental Europe, where the standards of both learning to drive and keeping your vehicle in good working order are higher, was an absolute joy. Conversely there are whole websites and youtube channels to dashcam footage in foreign lands of accidents that just boggle the mind. Russia and eastern Europe come off as some kind of demolition derby. Aside from the south when it snows, or Vegas when it rains, the US is not that bad. The absolute craziest I have personally scene was Thailand, but even that was more sheer volume of kinetic energy moving en mass more than anything else.
You make fair point. I still carry the mindset of "no such thing as an accident" from my military days so never is probably too strong. But it is the goal for all safety professionals, who use various similar wordage to convey just that, "our goal is 0" and so forth.
37K in 2016 so whatever that math works out to. Even at that when you account fatalities against driven miles it is astonishingly low. These things make headlines, but in reality we live in one of the safest era's there has ever been compared to history.
Fair point, so let me ask you in your expertise here, is not the higher the hours you get on an engine/airframe the MX inspection gears towards checking as best they can such things? Unbalanced, wear and tear, ect. I know one of the offials yesterday threw out metal fatique but that seemed inappropriate to speculate on and does seem to fit so perhaps he was talking without thinking. Perhaps you could speak to what factors could go into that as this goes along. And agreed this is way early and will take quite some time. This on the surface sounds a lot like the SWA 737 that had a very similar incident in 2016 w/o injuries. I agree with you the lesson for the general public will knowing what to do in-cabin in an emergency. From my understanding the fatality was due to head injury so could support your position theory, we will see.
And I appreciate your expertise and service. I started first 12 years of my career in Air Transportation so I appreciate your thoughts.
I'm going to go with the theory here that Cohen-faced with the question in court-told the answer that we need to believe more so than Hannity-faced with the question in public-who is still triangulating how to answer it. Feels like he painted himself into a corner he will eventually have to admit what Cohen already has let out of the bag. Grand scheme of things we will see how important all this is, but its always entertaining watching hubris tumble down the mountain a bit.
Respectfully, the model they are using is not keeping up with the data and analytics they have available now. The Airlines will argue that to fully guarantee all seat on a flight (lets pick 100 to make the math easy) they can only sell 90 of the 100 to cover their margin of error, and thus ticket prices go up to match the risk if they do, according to their line of thinking. So they charge less on 110 tickets and hope for the best knowing either way the flight makes the monetary goal. They think this way because if they actually did that and raised prices where the competitor did not, customers would go to the competitor as most would rather save the money than pay for guarantee the spot. Think of it as like in the cold war, no one wants to fire off the first nuke. No one wants to change first out of fear they get left behind. The difference now is with technology you have real time data to feed the analytics both in the booking system and also the board planners. You know with very rare exceptions if someone is making flight or not, mostly well in advance. Overbook as a practice started way back in the 50's when you had no idea if a passenger was actually going to be there or not, but they stick with it not out of necessity but because it as close to a zero-risk as a thin profit margin industry gets. If a agree-to (never happening) forced (highly unlikely) change on all simultaneously, it delineates the risk and after an initial flux the normal competition would keep prices roughly at the mean they are with normal factors such as fuel costs, demands, ect.
I typically loath government regulation, but the purposeful overbooking on airline travel is so absurd at this point it really has moved into the realm of fraud, where you have them book 110%+ of the flights to "predict" no-shows.
This is true. There is a bit of context though as Clinton was dealing with a Republican congress voted in under the promise of doing just that. But credit him with reading the moment and seizing the credit for it. Reagan and GW Bush had Dem congresses. W is the one that really sticks out here, as until '06 he and the GOP had control to do whatever they wanted and did nothing re:deficit. No way to sugar coat that one for fiscal hawks on the right. If there are any anymore...
Tr4: Air Trans is a very simple formula: The most paying people/freight on the fewest amount of flights for minimum of cost. Until there is enough of a customer revolt that it affects business at the planning level (and that cycle for AirTrans runs 5-10-15 or more years into future) they will continue to cut comfort for profits. With no alternative to airline travel on the horizon, that time will not be soon.
Speaks to the weakness of the argument when I had a very hard time finding a respectable write up on it. I even EBSCO'd it to know avail. Really speaks to how much it is a slogan and not a serious, thought out position.
I lived in Germany 5 years over two different stints, and it was the same they were perplexed that "doing your taxes" was an issue to the point you couldn't even explain it to them. Granted I in know way want their tax levels, and certainly not their VAT on top of that, but it is only the self preservation of bureaucracy that makes it as complicated as it is now.
You can't, but then again that isn't the point of the slogan. It isn't a thought out position it's an cry of aggrievement where there is none. There are arguments about usage, waste, transparency, ect. but just spouting "taxation is theft" prevents that conversation and brands you unserious.
On “Weekend!”
The ending of the azaleas season is finally arriving, so that means time for pollen abatement procedures; plenty of cleaning, scrubbing, and pressure washing on the agenda down here in the pines.
On “Return of the Rudy”
A few wild conspiracy theories, at least the remotely plausible ones not involving aliens, from this:
Rudy and Mueller are besties so he can get all the info
Rudy has contacts and dirt and can leverage the individual investigators of Mueller team
Trump wants Rudy under attorney/client privilege
Trump couldn't get any other lawyers to rep him
On “Barbara Bush, Randa Jarrar, and the Outrage of Free Speech”
And its dangerous. There were people trying to dox the FISA judge when the HSCI memo's came out. Stop and think about the idea of doxing that type of official, regardless of your thoughts on FISA courts. And the really horrid part, some of those doing it are the ones raining privacy concerns from the ramparts until its an issue they don't like. Terrible.
"
Taking politics and academic issues out-I tried to just look at it as I would when I was a manager/supervisor: I cannot infringe your private personal speech. I can protect our employer once you purposefully included the organization and specific members into your private speech and implied their consent, protection, and agreement. If you are going to discipline, that would be the angle to take. Also depending on contractual agreements, openly discussing the amount of money you are making can be an issue for some folks, not sure if that is applicable here or not. I found the comments themselves horrid, but she is free to be horrid all she wants. It mostly came across to me as a person venting for attention, and I treated it as such.
"
Both the doxing of non-public personal info and using a metal health crisis line are wrong here. I hope we can all agree on that much.
"
It is in both the Higher Ed piece and also in Popehats, it didn't make the block quotes for sake of space. But yes, that also happened, basically she tweeted if anyone wanted to call her and posted a working mental health crisis line number.
On “1 Dead in Southwest Emergency Landing”
I would agree. FOD from space would make a good sci-fi concept though. In the case I mentioned it was as simple as some jackass leaving a leatherman on the inlet for God knows why reason. Did enough flight line FOD walks that to this day I look at the tires on my car when I get in out of habit.
"
Makes sense perfect sense to me. I have peripheral knowledge compared to you, so wouldn't state as expert or guess, I appreciate you laying it out well. Hopefully others do as I've done today and read up on it.
"
Pilot distinctly said no fire to ATC, does that to your mind and guessing from afar, lean you one way or the other? I would assume something like FOD intake would react differently than inlet cowling failing for some other reason. I only bring this up because I saw a FOD intake that immediately flared into a fire, fortunately it was on the ground and quickly contained between A/C systems and crew chief being swift with the fire bottle.
"
There is a a line of thought to pursue here separate from the obvious tragedy of the lady who was killed, so in no way want to diminish that. But to your point-the airlines while getting the most important part mostly right, the safety, they have almost zero goodwill capitol built up with the public when things like this happen due to every lessening customer satisfaction. The customers are for the most part miserable, and rightly blame the airlines for that discomfort, so to their minds its a short leap to blaming them immediately when a tragedy strikes regardless of the statistical rarity of it. Going from overbooking and purposefully crowded conditions to "of course it was a matter of time till those cheapskates killed someone" is how that usually goes. And no amount of data will dissuade that emotion.
"
Believable enough. Driving in Germany and continental Europe, where the standards of both learning to drive and keeping your vehicle in good working order are higher, was an absolute joy. Conversely there are whole websites and youtube channels to dashcam footage in foreign lands of accidents that just boggle the mind. Russia and eastern Europe come off as some kind of demolition derby. Aside from the south when it snows, or Vegas when it rains, the US is not that bad. The absolute craziest I have personally scene was Thailand, but even that was more sheer volume of kinetic energy moving en mass more than anything else.
"
You make fair point. I still carry the mindset of "no such thing as an accident" from my military days so never is probably too strong. But it is the goal for all safety professionals, who use various similar wordage to convey just that, "our goal is 0" and so forth.
"
37K in 2016 so whatever that math works out to. Even at that when you account fatalities against driven miles it is astonishingly low. These things make headlines, but in reality we live in one of the safest era's there has ever been compared to history.
On “Wednesday!”
Happy Birthday Maribou.
On “1 Dead in Southwest Emergency Landing”
Fair point, so let me ask you in your expertise here, is not the higher the hours you get on an engine/airframe the MX inspection gears towards checking as best they can such things? Unbalanced, wear and tear, ect. I know one of the offials yesterday threw out metal fatique but that seemed inappropriate to speculate on and does seem to fit so perhaps he was talking without thinking. Perhaps you could speak to what factors could go into that as this goes along. And agreed this is way early and will take quite some time. This on the surface sounds a lot like the SWA 737 that had a very similar incident in 2016 w/o injuries. I agree with you the lesson for the general public will knowing what to do in-cabin in an emergency. From my understanding the fatality was due to head injury so could support your position theory, we will see.
And I appreciate your expertise and service. I started first 12 years of my career in Air Transportation so I appreciate your thoughts.
On “Yes, Hannity, Cohen is in fact your lawyer. And you should be glad.”
I'm going to go with the theory here that Cohen-faced with the question in court-told the answer that we need to believe more so than Hannity-faced with the question in public-who is still triangulating how to answer it. Feels like he painted himself into a corner he will eventually have to admit what Cohen already has let out of the bag. Grand scheme of things we will see how important all this is, but its always entertaining watching hubris tumble down the mountain a bit.
On “Tuesday S&T IV”
Respectfully, the model they are using is not keeping up with the data and analytics they have available now. The Airlines will argue that to fully guarantee all seat on a flight (lets pick 100 to make the math easy) they can only sell 90 of the 100 to cover their margin of error, and thus ticket prices go up to match the risk if they do, according to their line of thinking. So they charge less on 110 tickets and hope for the best knowing either way the flight makes the monetary goal. They think this way because if they actually did that and raised prices where the competitor did not, customers would go to the competitor as most would rather save the money than pay for guarantee the spot. Think of it as like in the cold war, no one wants to fire off the first nuke. No one wants to change first out of fear they get left behind. The difference now is with technology you have real time data to feed the analytics both in the booking system and also the board planners. You know with very rare exceptions if someone is making flight or not, mostly well in advance. Overbook as a practice started way back in the 50's when you had no idea if a passenger was actually going to be there or not, but they stick with it not out of necessity but because it as close to a zero-risk as a thin profit margin industry gets. If a agree-to (never happening) forced (highly unlikely) change on all simultaneously, it delineates the risk and after an initial flux the normal competition would keep prices roughly at the mean they are with normal factors such as fuel costs, demands, ect.
"
I typically loath government regulation, but the purposeful overbooking on airline travel is so absurd at this point it really has moved into the realm of fraud, where you have them book 110%+ of the flights to "predict" no-shows.
On “Tax Day 2018: Taxation Is or Isn’t Theft?”
This is true. There is a bit of context though as Clinton was dealing with a Republican congress voted in under the promise of doing just that. But credit him with reading the moment and seizing the credit for it. Reagan and GW Bush had Dem congresses. W is the one that really sticks out here, as until '06 he and the GOP had control to do whatever they wanted and did nothing re:deficit. No way to sugar coat that one for fiscal hawks on the right. If there are any anymore...
On “Tuesday S&T IV”
Tr4: Air Trans is a very simple formula: The most paying people/freight on the fewest amount of flights for minimum of cost. Until there is enough of a customer revolt that it affects business at the planning level (and that cycle for AirTrans runs 5-10-15 or more years into future) they will continue to cut comfort for profits. With no alternative to airline travel on the horizon, that time will not be soon.
On “Tax Day 2018: Taxation Is or Isn’t Theft?”
Speaks to the weakness of the argument when I had a very hard time finding a respectable write up on it. I even EBSCO'd it to know avail. Really speaks to how much it is a slogan and not a serious, thought out position.
"
Works depressingly well either way, to be honest.
"
@oscar-gordon I had that very link originally included but left it out as it's laid out a bit unwieldy and for sake of keeping a short post.
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I lived in Germany 5 years over two different stints, and it was the same they were perplexed that "doing your taxes" was an issue to the point you couldn't even explain it to them. Granted I in know way want their tax levels, and certainly not their VAT on top of that, but it is only the self preservation of bureaucracy that makes it as complicated as it is now.
"
You can't, but then again that isn't the point of the slogan. It isn't a thought out position it's an cry of aggrievement where there is none. There are arguments about usage, waste, transparency, ect. but just spouting "taxation is theft" prevents that conversation and brands you unserious.