Tester called for Biden to step down. There is polling that shows an unnamed "younger Democrat" would beat Trump in the battle ground states. Unfortunately I find polling for things like "younger Democrat" less than helpful
In 2020, younger progressives were down on Biden because they thought he would be a moderate. Turns out he is pretty progressive. Now he is proposing even bolder progressive policies domestically and he is being rewarded by progressive writers stating these are pie in the sky proposals which will never happen: https://www.vox.com/politics/361389/biden-progressives-supreme-court-rent-cap-assault-weapons
It could be as simple as the House Progressives represent constituencies where Biden's core support remains very strong. I think a lot of people do not understand how much the black community really likes Biden and always has but they especially like him because he was an older white dude willing to be a loyal aide-de-camp to a younger black man for eight years and never sought to outshine or undermine him
There is an argument that replacement helps Democrats because there is suddenly a not Biden or Trump candidate. It is risky but could work. Unfortunately, it could also be a not Harris argument because she doesn't poll that great either even though legally and logistically, she is still the most likely candidate.
An important thing to put out there is that everyone is unpopular. 60 percent of people want Trump to step down too. Congress is not popular, The Supreme Court is not popular, etc
This is strange and others have noted it but there have been progressive journalists drum beating that Biden was too old/doomed long before the infamous June debate which started three weeks of hair on fire coverage and writing.
There is no clear action on what is and what is not the correct path here.
I'm also partially convinced that this is a "No Labels" esque revolt in disguise because Biden has been talking about making the rich pay their fair share (i.e. raise taxes), so now Democratic donors who can give 8 figure checks to PACs are having a hissy fit and using the debate as cover.
I would say destructive and demoralizing with the strong possibility of creating a schism that takes 10-20 years to heal but that is just me. But a lot of people seem to want that including Democratic politicians.
Yesterday, Politico published a piece about an internal DNC memo which showed Harris polling better than Biden but non-Harris Democrats polling better. People like Shapiro, Whitmer, or Wes Moore.
My worry is that we end up with a bruising convention like 1924.
My issue is with the Democratic Politicians calling on Biden to step aside because it feels like they are immolating themselves and possibly the party in the worst possible way.
Harris was nominated and elected to be the VP in 2020. She is the contingency if a black hole were to swallow up Biden tomorrow. There is no question that Harris would be El Jefe if Biden was swallowed up by a black hole.
But all the Democratic politicians calling for Biden to stand aside are giving a big tell when they don't say "Biden should step aside and Let's go Harris to continue the Biden legacy and get the job done."
The problem is that it looks like the Democrats are not s unified front and it makes us look confused, weal, and like a circular firing squad. Anonymous Democrats complaining that they are resigned to a second Trump term is also a very bad look. It looks more like the iron law of institutions.
There were pundits like Ezra Klein and Eric Levitz complaining that Biden was too old before the debate that set hair on fire. These pundits never mentioned Kamala Harris as the obvious replacement and went straight to the perpetual pundit fantasy of a brokered convention. This always felt like a tell to me that concerns about Biden’s age had a strong undercurrent of “Gasp if something happened to Biden, the black lady will be in charge.”
The fact that no Democratic politician is mentioning Harris except as one of many replacements (if they mention her at all) is also a tell in my opinion.
Biden is a bit down but he has been treading water and TRUMP IS ALSO VERY DISLIKED. The polling I have seen did not have potential replacements doing better than Biden in swing states.
Also it is July. In July 1988, Dukakis was crushing Bush I by 17 points.
So people calling for Democrats to ditch Biden are working a lot on vibes in my opinion without released evidence for their cause.
FWIW, Biden has been coming hard against Crypto and perhaps Schiff wants that crypto money: https://www.standwithcrypto.org/politicians/person/adam---schiff
Perhaps but pundits like Klein and Levitz were beating the Biden is too Old/Biden Must Go drum long before the first debate. I think Biden has done a lot but minds were bake and now all the evidence only proves the priors.
My issue is that a lot of people seem to be unserious as you note and are not mentioning Harris and seem to think she can be ditched to without causing a fracture or demoralizing
I'm a bit disappointed with Schiff for this one but not as disappointed/angry as I am with other Democrats with the knives out.
The polls have not changed that much and the polls that I have seen on 538 have Biden much closer to the margin of error against Trump than other potential replacement Democrats.
My anger is that the Democrats who seem that we can replace Biden with someone not named Harris and not have it be a bruising and demoralizing convention that ends up as a big game of Boar on the Floor which will delight political reporters and Republicans and no one else.
Biden retains support of at least 35-40 percent of Democrats. This is not a majority but it is not exactly a minority either. Many of his supporters come from the corest of core Democratic constituencies, black women especially middle-aged black women. Rejecting Harris for someone else is a brutal mistake and a horrifically cynical play to assume that they will show up anyway.
Schiff can do this because he runs from a safely blue state that is going Democratic either way. I'm disappointed by him.
Biden has said he is not going to drop out. He has the delegates to secure the nomination. The post-debate polls have been remarkably consistent and within the margin of error. They are very sticky and make it anyone's game. Biden has still done better against Trump than other potential replacements.
I have yet to hear a plan that replaces Biden without creating a glum and moral busted Democratic base. Maybe great for pundits, not so good for the Democratic Party. Actually, there is one plan:
Biden resigns, Harris becomes the President, everyone and their third cousin backs Harris to the tilt.
But it is revealing that a lot of Biden must go types do not consent to this obvious solution and seem to go for "blitz primary" aka open convention/boar on the floor and think it will be a good result or at least not morale damaging.
I think a lot of the polling shows a statistical dead heat/anybody's game. The best thing going for Trump right now is the anti-Trump meltdown over Biden's debate performance which seems to show no signs of abatting despite the fact that Biden has been perfectly fine since then. My theory and it is mine is that a lot of center-left writers were never keen on Biden to begin with and now the bees are firmly in their bonnets
It looks like there is no assassination attempt bounce for Trump. Maybe too early to tell but this feels right to me. The whole thing actually feels like a weird non-event except among the most adamant Trump supporters. I've read people in red areas even talking about it being undiscussed.
The question is whether anyone has the special sauce to make Trumpism carry on. Vance is a Trumpist in belief to the core but he lacks Trump's carney barker energy
Biden is already going all out on Vance's authoritarianism. I don't think this is a choice a secure candidate makes. This is a shore up your base choice.
I always thought Biden was down but not out and that there was plenty of polling even before Saturday that showed him as still having the best chance. It is moderate Democrats and rich-donor Democrats that seem to want him gone.
*Comment archive for non-registered commenters assembled by email address as provided.
On “From The Los Angeles Times: Schiff calls on Biden to drop out, citing ‘serious concerns’ he can’t win”
Tester called for Biden to step down. There is polling that shows an unnamed "younger Democrat" would beat Trump in the battle ground states. Unfortunately I find polling for things like "younger Democrat" less than helpful
"
In 2020, younger progressives were down on Biden because they thought he would be a moderate. Turns out he is pretty progressive. Now he is proposing even bolder progressive policies domestically and he is being rewarded by progressive writers stating these are pie in the sky proposals which will never happen: https://www.vox.com/politics/361389/biden-progressives-supreme-court-rent-cap-assault-weapons
"
It could be as simple as the House Progressives represent constituencies where Biden's core support remains very strong. I think a lot of people do not understand how much the black community really likes Biden and always has but they especially like him because he was an older white dude willing to be a loyal aide-de-camp to a younger black man for eight years and never sought to outshine or undermine him
"
There is an argument that replacement helps Democrats because there is suddenly a not Biden or Trump candidate. It is risky but could work. Unfortunately, it could also be a not Harris argument because she doesn't poll that great either even though legally and logistically, she is still the most likely candidate.
"
An important thing to put out there is that everyone is unpopular. 60 percent of people want Trump to step down too. Congress is not popular, The Supreme Court is not popular, etc
"
This is strange and others have noted it but there have been progressive journalists drum beating that Biden was too old/doomed long before the infamous June debate which started three weeks of hair on fire coverage and writing.
There is no clear action on what is and what is not the correct path here.
"
I'm also partially convinced that this is a "No Labels" esque revolt in disguise because Biden has been talking about making the rich pay their fair share (i.e. raise taxes), so now Democratic donors who can give 8 figure checks to PACs are having a hissy fit and using the debate as cover.
"
I would say destructive and demoralizing with the strong possibility of creating a schism that takes 10-20 years to heal but that is just me. But a lot of people seem to want that including Democratic politicians.
Yesterday, Politico published a piece about an internal DNC memo which showed Harris polling better than Biden but non-Harris Democrats polling better. People like Shapiro, Whitmer, or Wes Moore.
My worry is that we end up with a bruising convention like 1924.
"
My issue is with the Democratic Politicians calling on Biden to step aside because it feels like they are immolating themselves and possibly the party in the worst possible way.
Harris was nominated and elected to be the VP in 2020. She is the contingency if a black hole were to swallow up Biden tomorrow. There is no question that Harris would be El Jefe if Biden was swallowed up by a black hole.
But all the Democratic politicians calling for Biden to stand aside are giving a big tell when they don't say "Biden should step aside and Let's go Harris to continue the Biden legacy and get the job done."
"
I appreciate MY for this but in honesty he has about as much say in what will happen as we do.
"
The problem is that it looks like the Democrats are not s unified front and it makes us look confused, weal, and like a circular firing squad. Anonymous Democrats complaining that they are resigned to a second Trump term is also a very bad look. It looks more like the iron law of institutions.
There were pundits like Ezra Klein and Eric Levitz complaining that Biden was too old before the debate that set hair on fire. These pundits never mentioned Kamala Harris as the obvious replacement and went straight to the perpetual pundit fantasy of a brokered convention. This always felt like a tell to me that concerns about Biden’s age had a strong undercurrent of “Gasp if something happened to Biden, the black lady will be in charge.”
The fact that no Democratic politician is mentioning Harris except as one of many replacements (if they mention her at all) is also a tell in my opinion.
Biden is a bit down but he has been treading water and TRUMP IS ALSO VERY DISLIKED. The polling I have seen did not have potential replacements doing better than Biden in swing states.
Also it is July. In July 1988, Dukakis was crushing Bush I by 17 points.
So people calling for Democrats to ditch Biden are working a lot on vibes in my opinion without released evidence for their cause.
"
FWIW, Biden has been coming hard against Crypto and perhaps Schiff wants that crypto money: https://www.standwithcrypto.org/politicians/person/adam---schiff
"
Perhaps but pundits like Klein and Levitz were beating the Biden is too Old/Biden Must Go drum long before the first debate. I think Biden has done a lot but minds were bake and now all the evidence only proves the priors.
My issue is that a lot of people seem to be unserious as you note and are not mentioning Harris and seem to think she can be ditched to without causing a fracture or demoralizing
"
No. This is election law, not the Catholic Church
"
I'm a bit disappointed with Schiff for this one but not as disappointed/angry as I am with other Democrats with the knives out.
The polls have not changed that much and the polls that I have seen on 538 have Biden much closer to the margin of error against Trump than other potential replacement Democrats.
My anger is that the Democrats who seem that we can replace Biden with someone not named Harris and not have it be a bruising and demoralizing convention that ends up as a big game of Boar on the Floor which will delight political reporters and Republicans and no one else.
Biden retains support of at least 35-40 percent of Democrats. This is not a majority but it is not exactly a minority either. Many of his supporters come from the corest of core Democratic constituencies, black women especially middle-aged black women. Rejecting Harris for someone else is a brutal mistake and a horrifically cynical play to assume that they will show up anyway.
"
Newsweek, Trump's chances of winning the election are declining: https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-polling-data-five-thirty-eight-1926226
"
Schiff can do this because he runs from a safely blue state that is going Democratic either way. I'm disappointed by him.
Biden has said he is not going to drop out. He has the delegates to secure the nomination. The post-debate polls have been remarkably consistent and within the margin of error. They are very sticky and make it anyone's game. Biden has still done better against Trump than other potential replacements.
I have yet to hear a plan that replaces Biden without creating a glum and moral busted Democratic base. Maybe great for pundits, not so good for the Democratic Party. Actually, there is one plan:
Biden resigns, Harris becomes the President, everyone and their third cousin backs Harris to the tilt.
But it is revealing that a lot of Biden must go types do not consent to this obvious solution and seem to go for "blitz primary" aka open convention/boar on the floor and think it will be a good result or at least not morale damaging.
On “Open Mic for the week of 7/15/2024”
I think a lot of the polling shows a statistical dead heat/anybody's game. The best thing going for Trump right now is the anti-Trump meltdown over Biden's debate performance which seems to show no signs of abatting despite the fact that Biden has been perfectly fine since then. My theory and it is mine is that a lot of center-left writers were never keen on Biden to begin with and now the bees are firmly in their bonnets
"
Trump is not going to win in a landslide but thanks for trolling.
"
https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-no-poll-boost-after-assassination-attempt-us-election-1925680
It looks like there is no assassination attempt bounce for Trump. Maybe too early to tell but this feels right to me. The whole thing actually feels like a weird non-event except among the most adamant Trump supporters. I've read people in red areas even talking about it being undiscussed.
"
Well the pledges for unity did not last long, Johnson went on the attack and blamed it on the teleprompter loading his old script
On “Trump Picks Senator JD Vance as Running Mate”
The question is whether anyone has the special sauce to make Trumpism carry on. Vance is a Trumpist in belief to the core but he lacks Trump's carney barker energy
"
Biden is already going all out on Vance's authoritarianism. I don't think this is a choice a secure candidate makes. This is a shore up your base choice.
On “Open Mic for the week of 7/15/2024”
JD Vance is Trump's Veep pick. I consider this a kind of gift to Democrats.
"
I always thought Biden was down but not out and that there was plenty of polling even before Saturday that showed him as still having the best chance. It is moderate Democrats and rich-donor Democrats that seem to want him gone.
*Comment archive for non-registered commenters assembled by email address as provided.