I'm well aware, but I still think "Candidates" is silly talk. It's either Biden or it's Harris. There's no mechanism to transfer the Biden/Harris campaign infrastructure and money to anyone but Biden/Harris.
Otherwise, thanks for clarifying, I read you saying you fantasized about Trump winning and thought "hmmm that feels like a change in direction from Jay."
I'm a moderate myself and lean in the direction that Biden should step down. Be that as it may I do see the pattern you're describing and I'm at a loss to explain it. Maybe the former crowd are more ideological and thus their thinking goes "Biden has been a good President in left wing terms- far better than any of us expected him to be, so we owe him our support" whereas the establishmentarians are going "All our data and gut feelings say Biden is a definite drag on the ticket that Harris likely wouldn't be- so we have to dump Biden for maximal odds of winning." It's principle vs pragmatism maybe?
It's not courageous either which way- Obama is not, and never will again, be a candidate. His personal fortunes (outside the crazy far tail end risk of being targeted by a deranged right-wing admin) do not depend on how the election goes or how he's seen by anyone. So, if Obama shot his mouth off or spoke quietly it wouldn't be brave either way- he is risking nothing.
I do think it speaks well of Obama that he's remained publicly mum, as has Bill Clinton, but it's not brave- it's just restrained.
Mmmm sounds too eleventh dimensional chess to me. Also it elides that Biden both
A: did an objectively terrible job at that debate
B: has done only a slow jog of engagements since with middling to mediocre performance in them.
And I say this as a person who has always liked Joe and was utterly transported when he wiped the board on super Tuesday in 2020. Heck, I'd go so far as to say that Bidens' first term pencils out almost better than Obamas' first term (though the ACA is a huge argument on the other side of that ledger I'd posit Obama shares credit for that with Reid and Pelosi who truly got it over the finish line). I have never had a problem with Joe Biden and I would love love love for him to get another term- but I desperately want to win regardless of which name is on top of the ticket. I also desperately would love for Biden to pull it out so I'm extremely gettable but his teams behavior and his own middling performance and peevish reaction has not filled me with confidence. And what the ever loving fish is Hunter fishing failson Biden doing skulking around his inner circles???
All that said, if it ends up being Biden as the nominee I'm still 100% ridin with Biden. I just fear that our odds are better with Harris.
It is a concern but the logistics are virtually impossible to argue against. A Harris nomination means everything Biden has, money, infrastructure, personnel, transitions more or less seamlessly over to Harriss. Anyone other than Harris? Nightmare clusterfish, lawsuits fly, chaos.
The only people wishing for that are media dips who want spectacle, people who're lying to themselves about the practical considerations or right wingers.
It's a damnably unique situation and the parties are, due to generations of path dependence, set up to strongly prefer to renominate a successful president. It's not an easy thing to coordinate and, of course, there's no simple organizational structure that can do it (nor should there likely be).
Personally I don't think Biden has done enough to dispel the doubts that his horrible performance at the debate raised which gives me a not inconsiderable fear that he is unable to do what is needed to dispel those doubts. For the record I'd be 110% fine with Harris taking Bidens' place- I have no particular illusions about her capability as a candidate but I am entirely confident that, with her background, she could mount a fierce effort and not get run over by Trump in the next debate the way Biden was. Further, in this runup point to the nomination I think that Biden-step-downers have a right and obligation to make their case though I agree that any of those people who aren't also 110% pro-Harris are unserious.
Once Biden has the nomination 100% sewn up instead of the 99% sewn up he has now I'll, of course, be entirely in the tank for Biden.
Hmm I mean it is plausible, Dave, but I have my doubts. If the guy had a coherent agenda/grievance I would expect he'd have left a manifesto of other document enumerating them. That he didn't suggest that he either honestly didn't consider that the Secret Service would kill him or that he didn't have coherent grievances which, to my mind, strongly suggests the simpler suggestion that he was a deranged gun wielding nut.
Personally, I think the general rule should be that a person taking a run at a President/Presidential Candidate should be assumed to be a pathetic, incoherent nutcase until affirmatively proven otherwise.
The identity of the shooter didn't play into generating any kind of political firestorm nor did any leftists or Dems of any significance say something idiotic on the matter, so it deprived the subject of oxygen. It's easy to forget that a lot of Presidents have had some loon take a shot at them with varying levels of success.
A very great piece, thank you for opening up about it Will. I have a severely autistic cousin who was diagnosed decades ago. His parents have done as well as they could with him and, it being Canada, there are some good resources available for him but there's no doubt he'll be dependant on them for the rest of their lives. I am glad Lain isn't facing that level of challenge (early in your piece I was very worried she was). So I have a certain senses of a shadow of the feelings you're facing and you have all my sympathy.
I would think that if he undertook a suicide attack out of some sort of conviction he'd have left behind a manifesto. So, I think the overwhelming likelihood is that he's a nut with a gun.
No. There has never been a point in history where violence doesn't, ultimately, redound to the detriment of the marginalized and the minorities. It is the enemy of liberalism and the bane of the powerless and the comfort of the already comfortable who stroke their chins and dismiss the claims of the marginal because they supported violence. I hope it ultimately turns out that this was some right wing nutbag but if the shooter is in any way affiliated with anything related to the left the only response from us should be a blanket denunciation. That idiot. That indescribable idiot.
Agreed. And with such a fine record for his first term it's awfully high risk for him to stay in but you can easily see why he's so furiously bridling at the pressure to step down.
I think David Frums article (now there's a guy who's come around from the Bush lesser days) is quite on point in the Atlantic today.
*Comment archive for non-registered commenters assembled by email address as provided.
On “From The Los Angeles Times: Schiff calls on Biden to drop out, citing ‘serious concerns’ he can’t win”
I'm well aware, but I still think "Candidates" is silly talk. It's either Biden or it's Harris. There's no mechanism to transfer the Biden/Harris campaign infrastructure and money to anyone but Biden/Harris.
"
Biden and his team will be saying "we're in it all the way" until 2 minutes before he steps back or all the way to the election.
"
Just so we're clear: NotBiden is Harris.
Otherwise, thanks for clarifying, I read you saying you fantasized about Trump winning and thought "hmmm that feels like a change in direction from Jay."
"
Interesting, you'd like Trump to win this year?
"
Implied by lots of people other than Biden. We've been over this- he never promised or even suggested he'd be a one term president.
"
That open convention nonsense is pure Halperin wank fantasy. No way they're going to try that. It's Biden or it's Harris.
"
I'm a moderate myself and lean in the direction that Biden should step down. Be that as it may I do see the pattern you're describing and I'm at a loss to explain it. Maybe the former crowd are more ideological and thus their thinking goes "Biden has been a good President in left wing terms- far better than any of us expected him to be, so we owe him our support" whereas the establishmentarians are going "All our data and gut feelings say Biden is a definite drag on the ticket that Harris likely wouldn't be- so we have to dump Biden for maximal odds of winning." It's principle vs pragmatism maybe?
"
It's not courageous either which way- Obama is not, and never will again, be a candidate. His personal fortunes (outside the crazy far tail end risk of being targeted by a deranged right-wing admin) do not depend on how the election goes or how he's seen by anyone. So, if Obama shot his mouth off or spoke quietly it wouldn't be brave either way- he is risking nothing.
I do think it speaks well of Obama that he's remained publicly mum, as has Bill Clinton, but it's not brave- it's just restrained.
"
Mmmm sounds too eleventh dimensional chess to me. Also it elides that Biden both
A: did an objectively terrible job at that debate
B: has done only a slow jog of engagements since with middling to mediocre performance in them.
And I say this as a person who has always liked Joe and was utterly transported when he wiped the board on super Tuesday in 2020. Heck, I'd go so far as to say that Bidens' first term pencils out almost better than Obamas' first term (though the ACA is a huge argument on the other side of that ledger I'd posit Obama shares credit for that with Reid and Pelosi who truly got it over the finish line). I have never had a problem with Joe Biden and I would love love love for him to get another term- but I desperately want to win regardless of which name is on top of the ticket. I also desperately would love for Biden to pull it out so I'm extremely gettable but his teams behavior and his own middling performance and peevish reaction has not filled me with confidence. And what the ever loving fish is Hunter fishing failson Biden doing skulking around his inner circles???
All that said, if it ends up being Biden as the nominee I'm still 100% ridin with Biden. I just fear that our odds are better with Harris.
"
It is a concern but the logistics are virtually impossible to argue against. A Harris nomination means everything Biden has, money, infrastructure, personnel, transitions more or less seamlessly over to Harriss. Anyone other than Harris? Nightmare clusterfish, lawsuits fly, chaos.
The only people wishing for that are media dips who want spectacle, people who're lying to themselves about the practical considerations or right wingers.
"
Well I agree with you that any conversation about not going with BIden that doesn't conclude "and therefore it's Harris" is just silly.
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You and me both.
"
It's a damnably unique situation and the parties are, due to generations of path dependence, set up to strongly prefer to renominate a successful president. It's not an easy thing to coordinate and, of course, there's no simple organizational structure that can do it (nor should there likely be).
"
Personally I don't think Biden has done enough to dispel the doubts that his horrible performance at the debate raised which gives me a not inconsiderable fear that he is unable to do what is needed to dispel those doubts. For the record I'd be 110% fine with Harris taking Bidens' place- I have no particular illusions about her capability as a candidate but I am entirely confident that, with her background, she could mount a fierce effort and not get run over by Trump in the next debate the way Biden was. Further, in this runup point to the nomination I think that Biden-step-downers have a right and obligation to make their case though I agree that any of those people who aren't also 110% pro-Harris are unserious.
Once Biden has the nomination 100% sewn up instead of the 99% sewn up he has now I'll, of course, be entirely in the tank for Biden.
On “US Senator Bob Menendez Found Guilty on All Sixteen Count”
Good riddance.
On “Open Mic for the week of 7/15/2024”
Hmm I mean it is plausible, Dave, but I have my doubts. If the guy had a coherent agenda/grievance I would expect he'd have left a manifesto of other document enumerating them. That he didn't suggest that he either honestly didn't consider that the Secret Service would kill him or that he didn't have coherent grievances which, to my mind, strongly suggests the simpler suggestion that he was a deranged gun wielding nut.
Personally, I think the general rule should be that a person taking a run at a President/Presidential Candidate should be assumed to be a pathetic, incoherent nutcase until affirmatively proven otherwise.
"
The identity of the shooter didn't play into generating any kind of political firestorm nor did any leftists or Dems of any significance say something idiotic on the matter, so it deprived the subject of oxygen. It's easy to forget that a lot of Presidents have had some loon take a shot at them with varying levels of success.
"
Populism is probably the neoliberalism of our current four year cycle.
On “Voting for Republicans is Voting for Fascism”
That is amazing! Congrats!!
On “Struggling For Normal”
A very great piece, thank you for opening up about it Will. I have a severely autistic cousin who was diagnosed decades ago. His parents have done as well as they could with him and, it being Canada, there are some good resources available for him but there's no doubt he'll be dependant on them for the rest of their lives. I am glad Lain isn't facing that level of challenge (early in your piece I was very worried she was). So I have a certain senses of a shadow of the feelings you're facing and you have all my sympathy.
On “Trump was just shot at a rally. He appears to be fine.”
I would think that if he undertook a suicide attack out of some sort of conviction he'd have left behind a manifesto. So, I think the overwhelming likelihood is that he's a nut with a gun.
"
I pray to agnostic jebus that it's some obvious right coded kook or some nut but I fear you're right.
"
No. There has never been a point in history where violence doesn't, ultimately, redound to the detriment of the marginalized and the minorities. It is the enemy of liberalism and the bane of the powerless and the comfort of the already comfortable who stroke their chins and dismiss the claims of the marginal because they supported violence. I hope it ultimately turns out that this was some right wing nutbag but if the shooter is in any way affiliated with anything related to the left the only response from us should be a blanket denunciation. That idiot. That indescribable idiot.
"
Ugh, whoever that dumb fisher is can rot in hell. The absolutely worst thing to do.
On “From WaPo: Post-debate Battleground State Polling”
Agreed. And with such a fine record for his first term it's awfully high risk for him to stay in but you can easily see why he's so furiously bridling at the pressure to step down.
I think David Frums article (now there's a guy who's come around from the Bush lesser days) is quite on point in the Atlantic today.
*Comment archive for non-registered commenters assembled by email address as provided.