Wow. Epic trolling. Except of course it has no basis in the real world. No one is restricting the right to free travel within national borders in the US. and I want fewer permanent restrictions on individual autonomy. Overturning Roe increases permanent restrictions on autonomy.
But sure, call liberals authoritarians if it makes you feel better.
Those 74 million voters (As Jay corrects me below) were in large sub groups, many of which overlapped. There's also been a TON of reporting on what motivated them. And i live among them - they are not hesitant to say what they based their voting on.
You also assumed in your answer that the one box he ticked was uniform across the voters in question. I said no such thing. I did say - which is correct - that they voted for him affirmatively based on him ticking at least one box they felt was important. I stand by that assertion.
My belief is that significant numbers of people are motivated by single (or a small handful of) issues without regard to coherency of political philosophy and gut level anti-incumbency sentiment arising from things the government only has so much control over like gas prices.
You'd be correct. Especially down here. Those 71 million people voted for Donald Trump because he ticked at least one major political box that they cared about, even after seeing him fumble and fail on other major important things.
Democrats must now start to identify Republicans with their ridiculous policies and proposals and to contrast those with the Democratic solutions to the nation’s problems. Arguing that issues are complicated is good metaphysics but terrible politics.
What would those proposals be? Few of the things they campaigned on under Trump came to fruition, because all they really wanted was another tax cut and a stacked SCOTUS. Republicans had no national party platform in 2020. And they are about to get Roe kicked back to the states, which effectively overturns it. With redistricting drawing ever more gerrymandered lines to harden existing minority rule, they don't need counter proposals.
Democrats have to argue that simply standing by and letting vaccines and shifting demand solve the nation’s problems is not good enough. A passive program will not work.
And yet 71 Million Americans voted for just this, believing it would keep white men in political and economic power they "deserved."
The only plan that will work is implementing the Democratic platform, whether that platform is targeted regulatory changes, speeding up infrastructure funds to ports, or relaxing intellectual property regulations for vaccines. Democrats have to embrace a plan and argue for the sanctity of that plan as implemented by their chosen candidate, Joe Biden.
Would that were enough. Sadly for Democrats, Republicans are all too happy to point out the great things coming to their districts and states from Democrats actions, and all the while refusing (like Jello on a nail) to be pinned down in their opposition to those things. My local Trumplican congress critter has spent days posting nothing to social media but all the benefits of the "Bipartisan Infrastructure Bill" that he voted against in the House.
Question - do you really observe that so many living in those alternate universes are this thoughtful on the subject? Is there something else driving them?
Of course then once you extricate yourself you really have to consider how to handle the safety trade-offs, especially with kids around.
That's why we have trigger locks and gun safes. You can get a pistol box that screws to your bed rails and has digital finger print ID for under $200. Not 100% kid proof but will slow them down enough.
Plus you actually teach them proper safety and handling techniques.
They lie low for a year or two, living of interest from investments and family businesses. Chris writes a book that is his confession to being a bad boy in service of his brother. He goes on the speaking circuit, not quite apologizing. Three years hence he's doing political commentary again on CNN but never anchors.
Andrew gets indicted by the NYAG for some sort of low grade impropriety. He pleads out, pays a fine and retires to run some or another company that pays him handsomely to do nothing.
And yet multiple allegedly credible media sources said he did exactly that in their lists. So perhaps the right way to frame it is that Trump saw yet another opportunity to throw red meat and then the media flubbed the narrative because its Trump and you don't need to be 1000% right.
Down here it started with the first oil crash in the 1980's, followed by zero investment in economic development or industry. There wasn't a lot of line to be cut. And while they do indeed see white conservative allegedly Christian males as good and right and wholesome, that never really mattered until they were loosing salary, loosing pensions and watched their kids leave the state to get what looked like decent jobs that also died in the Dot Com crash and the Great Recession.
I don't expect the pople who voted for David Duke as Louisiana's governor becasue of his KK roots to change; I do think there's still a small, and fast closing window to recapture the ones who voted for him because he promised to revive the oil patch.
The loud screaming White Americans of whom Chip speaks are operating form fear - fear of loosing social status, fear of loosing economic status, and fear of being treated systematically (if not individually) the way the system treats minorities. They have bathed in that fear - stoked by their elected representatives every day - for 40 years. Those are the facts.
But take away one of those fears and what will they do? A sizable majority seem most concerned about earnings, savings and other "kitchen table" economic issues. If we do in fact ameliorate those issues - and Biden is moving the economy in that direction - there is a sizable chunk of that 40% who will no longer offer opposition. Sure, they may never come out and cheer that leftists and liberals were right, but they will be subject to way less fearmongering. If your wages are going up consistently, your benefits are stable, and your kids are doing as well or better then you did, you aren't going to be willing to scream about Jose stealing your job.
So you don't see returning the high end income tax bracket back to its pre Trump level as a good thing, even if it fund programs that actually help your fellow citizens? I'm not surprised, but given the utter lack of willingness by those folks to actually, ya know, trickle any of it down . . . .
Your OECD statistics are also questionable, as the US is nowhere near the top of the OECD countries in either Composite Effective Average Tax Rates, Composite Marginal Tax rates, or even Tax Competitiveness (which wraps up the investment tax burdens - https://taxfoundation.org/2021-international-tax-competitiveness-index/#Profiles). Meaning we have a LOT more room to actually tax folks before we do real economic harm.
the federal government already taxes the rich much more heavily than the lower and middle classes
Sure, in absolute dollars. But that's not your real beef, your real beef is:
On the other hand, more than 53 million low- and middle-income taxpayers pay no income taxes after benefiting from record amounts of tax credits, and six out of 10 households receive more in direct government benefits than they pay in all federal taxes.
Now, go look at the incomes of those people, and how few of them can actually afford to live even modestly in America. Given that the bottom 80% of American housholds own a mere 11% of the nation's wealth; that ultra wealthy households actually pay an effective tax rate a full percent below the bottom half of American households (since their "income" is all from investments that they take and repay loans against for their living expenses), and that CEO's presently earn 300 times the average wage of their workers, and frankly they are lucky we just want to go back to status-quo ante Trump.
Oh I know its how the Republican want to work, because the proper way - going to Congress and asking for a Reduction in Force (which requires Legislative direction) wouldn't fly politically. They'd rather quietly nickel and dime the federal workforce into insolvency then have the actual national debate, backed by votes, on what we should and shouldn't do for America.
They may, though I remain of the belief that Democrats steadily improving economic conditions - especially for rural and semi-rural whites - will alleviate some of that. Republicans have been successful in using fear and economic scarcity (and a healthy dose of scapegoating) to motivate people to support them. Take away the economic component and I suspect that number will shrink because a good many of those folks want to be heard and seen and their issues acted on. If Democrats are acting on their economic fears and Republicans are not that's not nothing.
I'm not trying to use this as a way to understand contemporary American politics - I'm pushing back on the media, pundit and OT commenter narratives that he's done nothing. Like so much else, its a lie, and I don't believe in coddling the lies or the liars.
HIs first election results - maybe, though that 37% approval was a year in to his presidency, and he never started out strong. He was at 45% when he took office, and his 4 year average was 41%. Lets also not forget that while he won the Electoral College, he didn't win the popular vote the first time; the EC vote flipped the second time, and his popular vote loss the second time was slightly over twice the size of the first election. So no, I don't think there was any real or meaningful difference.
You consider defense spending "dependency on government assistance?" Yeah I'd go for that.
But no, I was pointing out the LOG in the eye of the "limited government" political Party - who are happy to crow about that alleged commitment while all the while expanding the way government intrudes into daily life and private decisions and the alleged drain on the economy to feed the economic greed of a small segment of our population. Which, lets be frank - is in no way limited.
Look at Texas - they have in-state bounty hunting for abortions these days, and its written to sanction not the woman seeking the abortion, but the people who help her. So in theory if she catches the plane to NY as you suggest up thread the aircrew and airline could be sued. And for the moment the Texas law is operable while SCOTUS sorts Dobbs. If they really do throw it to the states I expect ALEC will have the Texas statute as a model at the ready.
Which is all the more reason Congress needs to actually legislate n this because its fast becoming an interstate commerce regulation issue aside form its enormous privacy and liberty implications.
On “Donald Trump’s 2024 Campaign Will Be Insane. It Also Might Win.”
Wow. Epic trolling. Except of course it has no basis in the real world. No one is restricting the right to free travel within national borders in the US. and I want fewer permanent restrictions on individual autonomy. Overturning Roe increases permanent restrictions on autonomy.
But sure, call liberals authoritarians if it makes you feel better.
"
Those 74 million voters (As Jay corrects me below) were in large sub groups, many of which overlapped. There's also been a TON of reporting on what motivated them. And i live among them - they are not hesitant to say what they based their voting on.
You also assumed in your answer that the one box he ticked was uniform across the voters in question. I said no such thing. I did say - which is correct - that they voted for him affirmatively based on him ticking at least one box they felt was important. I stand by that assertion.
"
You'd be correct. Especially down here. Those 71 million people voted for Donald Trump because he ticked at least one major political box that they cared about, even after seeing him fumble and fail on other major important things.
"
What would those proposals be? Few of the things they campaigned on under Trump came to fruition, because all they really wanted was another tax cut and a stacked SCOTUS. Republicans had no national party platform in 2020. And they are about to get Roe kicked back to the states, which effectively overturns it. With redistricting drawing ever more gerrymandered lines to harden existing minority rule, they don't need counter proposals.
And yet 71 Million Americans voted for just this, believing it would keep white men in political and economic power they "deserved."
Would that were enough. Sadly for Democrats, Republicans are all too happy to point out the great things coming to their districts and states from Democrats actions, and all the while refusing (like Jello on a nail) to be pinned down in their opposition to those things. My local Trumplican congress critter has spent days posting nothing to social media but all the benefits of the "Bipartisan Infrastructure Bill" that he voted against in the House.
TL:DR - you can't shame the shameless.
On “The Center Cannot Hold”
Really interesting post.
Question - do you really observe that so many living in those alternate universes are this thoughtful on the subject? Is there something else driving them?
On “Parents of Oxford High School Shooter Apprehended, Charged”
That's why we have trigger locks and gun safes. You can get a pistol box that screws to your bed rails and has digital finger print ID for under $200. Not 100% kid proof but will slow them down enough.
Plus you actually teach them proper safety and handling techniques.
This isn't hard.
On “Stopgap Spending Measure To Avoid Government Shutdown Agreed On”
Agreed.
Just like capitol punishment doesn't deter murder, the debt ceiling doesn't deter government spending without taxation.
On “CNN Takes Bold Action In Firing Chris Cuomo On A Saturday Night”
They lie low for a year or two, living of interest from investments and family businesses. Chris writes a book that is his confession to being a bad boy in service of his brother. He goes on the speaking circuit, not quite apologizing. Three years hence he's doing political commentary again on CNN but never anchors.
Andrew gets indicted by the NYAG for some sort of low grade impropriety. He pleads out, pays a fine and retires to run some or another company that pays him handsomely to do nothing.
On “What Has Joe Biden Done?”
And yet multiple allegedly credible media sources said he did exactly that in their lists. So perhaps the right way to frame it is that Trump saw yet another opportunity to throw red meat and then the media flubbed the narrative because its Trump and you don't need to be 1000% right.
"
Down here it started with the first oil crash in the 1980's, followed by zero investment in economic development or industry. There wasn't a lot of line to be cut. And while they do indeed see white conservative allegedly Christian males as good and right and wholesome, that never really mattered until they were loosing salary, loosing pensions and watched their kids leave the state to get what looked like decent jobs that also died in the Dot Com crash and the Great Recession.
I don't expect the pople who voted for David Duke as Louisiana's governor becasue of his KK roots to change; I do think there's still a small, and fast closing window to recapture the ones who voted for him because he promised to revive the oil patch.
"
SALT passed the House - I actually doubt it survives the Senate. The House knows this. So does the Senate.
"
The loud screaming White Americans of whom Chip speaks are operating form fear - fear of loosing social status, fear of loosing economic status, and fear of being treated systematically (if not individually) the way the system treats minorities. They have bathed in that fear - stoked by their elected representatives every day - for 40 years. Those are the facts.
But take away one of those fears and what will they do? A sizable majority seem most concerned about earnings, savings and other "kitchen table" economic issues. If we do in fact ameliorate those issues - and Biden is moving the economy in that direction - there is a sizable chunk of that 40% who will no longer offer opposition. Sure, they may never come out and cheer that leftists and liberals were right, but they will be subject to way less fearmongering. If your wages are going up consistently, your benefits are stable, and your kids are doing as well or better then you did, you aren't going to be willing to scream about Jose stealing your job.
"
They haven't had credibility since the 13 tax increases under Reagan because the deficit grew too quickly under voodoo.
"
So you don't see returning the high end income tax bracket back to its pre Trump level as a good thing, even if it fund programs that actually help your fellow citizens? I'm not surprised, but given the utter lack of willingness by those folks to actually, ya know, trickle any of it down . . . .
Your OECD statistics are also questionable, as the US is nowhere near the top of the OECD countries in either Composite Effective Average Tax Rates, Composite Marginal Tax rates, or even Tax Competitiveness (which wraps up the investment tax burdens - https://taxfoundation.org/2021-international-tax-competitiveness-index/#Profiles). Meaning we have a LOT more room to actually tax folks before we do real economic harm.
Sure, in absolute dollars. But that's not your real beef, your real beef is:
https://taxfoundation.org/rich-pay-their-fair-share-of-taxes/
Now, go look at the incomes of those people, and how few of them can actually afford to live even modestly in America. Given that the bottom 80% of American housholds own a mere 11% of the nation's wealth; that ultra wealthy households actually pay an effective tax rate a full percent below the bottom half of American households (since their "income" is all from investments that they take and repay loans against for their living expenses), and that CEO's presently earn 300 times the average wage of their workers, and frankly they are lucky we just want to go back to status-quo ante Trump.
On “Stopgap Spending Measure To Avoid Government Shutdown Agreed On”
Oh I know its how the Republican want to work, because the proper way - going to Congress and asking for a Reduction in Force (which requires Legislative direction) wouldn't fly politically. They'd rather quietly nickel and dime the federal workforce into insolvency then have the actual national debate, backed by votes, on what we should and shouldn't do for America.
On “What Has Joe Biden Done?”
As others keep hammering me, half a win is better then no win, but national level Democratic leadership isn't willing to message on half a win.
"
They may, though I remain of the belief that Democrats steadily improving economic conditions - especially for rural and semi-rural whites - will alleviate some of that. Republicans have been successful in using fear and economic scarcity (and a healthy dose of scapegoating) to motivate people to support them. Take away the economic component and I suspect that number will shrink because a good many of those folks want to be heard and seen and their issues acted on. If Democrats are acting on their economic fears and Republicans are not that's not nothing.
On “Stopgap Spending Measure To Avoid Government Shutdown Agreed On”
Well, at least I get paid through February. But lets remember that no business ever runs this way.
https://www.cnn.com/2021/12/02/politics/government-shutdown-latest-continuing-resolution/index.html
On “Is Leftist Authoritarianism A Thing Or Not?”
Sadly so it appears.
On “What Has Joe Biden Done?”
I'm not trying to use this as a way to understand contemporary American politics - I'm pushing back on the media, pundit and OT commenter narratives that he's done nothing. Like so much else, its a lie, and I don't believe in coddling the lies or the liars.
"
HIs first election results - maybe, though that 37% approval was a year in to his presidency, and he never started out strong. He was at 45% when he took office, and his 4 year average was 41%. Lets also not forget that while he won the Electoral College, he didn't win the popular vote the first time; the EC vote flipped the second time, and his popular vote loss the second time was slightly over twice the size of the first election. So no, I don't think there was any real or meaningful difference.
On “Is Leftist Authoritarianism A Thing Or Not?”
You consider defense spending "dependency on government assistance?" Yeah I'd go for that.
But no, I was pointing out the LOG in the eye of the "limited government" political Party - who are happy to crow about that alleged commitment while all the while expanding the way government intrudes into daily life and private decisions and the alleged drain on the economy to feed the economic greed of a small segment of our population. Which, lets be frank - is in no way limited.
"
They've had 40 years to organize and sort. They have stayed on mission and on message the whole time. It's morbidly impressive.
On “Friend of the site Gabriel Malor live-tweets the oral arguments for Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health”
Look at Texas - they have in-state bounty hunting for abortions these days, and its written to sanction not the woman seeking the abortion, but the people who help her. So in theory if she catches the plane to NY as you suggest up thread the aircrew and airline could be sued. And for the moment the Texas law is operable while SCOTUS sorts Dobbs. If they really do throw it to the states I expect ALEC will have the Texas statute as a model at the ready.
Which is all the more reason Congress needs to actually legislate n this because its fast becoming an interstate commerce regulation issue aside form its enormous privacy and liberty implications.
On “Stopgap Spending Measure To Avoid Government Shutdown Agreed On”
They have one job, which they manage to FUBAR every year. The federal workforce is REALLY, REALLY tired of this.