I've thought of what the final moments of this campaign resemble for me or perhaps the Trump campaign overall. It reminds me of the Hemmingway line about how bankruptcy occurs gradually and then all at once. Even during the spring and summer when Biden was on the ropes, there were signs Trump's campaign was not what it should be. He wasn't killing it when theoretically he should have been able to. The past week or two has felt like the all at once stage.
One of the things I have noticed is numerous double Trump voters stating they are going for Harris but very few, if any, Clinton-Biden voters state they are going for Trump
Trump's lead among men might be declining: https://x.com/IanSams/status/1853488490102583651?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1853488490102583651%7Ctwgr%5E84bc3d2bd774a267bdcacdc1df77d5a77a3e3efc%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fdisqus.com%2Fembed%2Fcomments%2F%3Fbase%3Ddefaultf%3Dlawyersgunsmoneyblog-comt_i%3D14589120https3A2F2Fwww.lawyersgunsmoneyblog.com2F3Fp3D145891t_u%3Dhttps3A2F2Fwww.lawyersgunsmoneyblog.com2F20242F112Fthe-non-college-educated-man-problemt_e%3DThe20Non-College20Educated20Man20Problemt_d%3DThe20Non-College20Educated20Man20Problem20-20Lawyers2C20Guns202620Moneyt_t%3DThe20Non-College20Educated20Man20Problems_o%3Dascversion%3D3eb318847b9ba051e1aaed202ef5cc92
Red Eagle Politics is here to save Iowa with a trash poll conducted on Saturday and Sunday: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/iowa/
FWIW, Democrats, even the most worrywart of worrywart Democrats have been starting to sound more optimistic over the past 72 hours.
I have been feeling more serene and anxiety free than I did in 2016 and 2020. Harris has run as good a campaign as anyone can. Trump can still win but the last few weeks have seemingly created a lot of stuff that makes it better to be Harris than Trump. His MSG rally backfired probably and the MSM wasn't able to BSDI with Biden's garbage comment. The Selzer Poll indicates that abortion has been largely underlooked as an issue by the male pundits and pollsters who think it is a girl cooties issue. There is a fair amount of evidence that unaffiliated voters and late deciders are breaking for Harris over Trump by significant amounts.
Currently, AtlasIntel and some other right-wing pollsters with risible cross-tabs are trying to spin hard for Trump and it seems to influence the aggregators like Morris at 538 and Silver and Nate Cohn but no one else.
The Christian concept of a personal God has always perplexed me. Judaism just doesn't believe that God intervenes in the world in this way or any sort of way. If there is a God (and I tend to think there probably is not a God but I can't prove it one way or the other), whatever happens today, tomorrow, or the day after is not the result of that God's will.
The Nuremberg Rally at MSG appears to be one of the massive self-owns in American political history. We will see on Tuesday but as far as I can tell, nothing good as come out of it for Trump. There was the University of Central Florida poll which had Puerto Ricans in Florida going 85-8 for Harris. Univision had this poll for Pennsylvania:
"Final Univision poll in PA has 64-30; among Puerto Ricans, 67-27. Trump holding only 82% of his '20 voters (vs. Dems 89%)
The garbage joke broke through. Voters heard about it & don't laugh it off: 69% say it was "more racist than humorous", 67% see it as sign of Trump racism."
There is also Selzer's Iowa poll which rocketed Harris to +3.
Harris potentially has a firewall of between 400-500K voters in Pennsylvania right now.
Trump can still win but he has not done himself many favors recently.
In the year 2024 of our Common Era, it takes Bill Kristol to state the obvious: It's Abortion, Stupid: https://www.thebulwark.com/p/its-abortion-stupid
"The issue of abortion rights is critical to analyzing and understanding this election. But it makes mainstream commentators uneasy. Not because they’re not for abortion rights—I imagine most of them are. But because it somehow doesn’t seem as momentous or as suitable in deciding a crucial election, compared to issues like the economy, or democracy, or even immigration. It’s also a little personal and, rightfully, emotional. And so I think my (mostly male) counterparts are a bit shy about discussing the issue.
But you know what? Dobbs really was one of the most consequential Supreme Court decisions of modern times. Real lives have been affected and are being affected by it. As Selzer noted, in Iowa, it was the state ban that got people interested in voting. As Steve Kornacki observed, the saturation coverage around the abortion ban has been evident in Iowa polling—with massive opposition correlating into major Harris gains.
That’s just Iowa. But the ripple effects of Dobbs can be seen far beyond there, as well. The issue of abortion remains in question in several major states, and perhaps nationally. The next president will make judicial appointments, could sign legislation, and will have the power to take executive actions that will actually affect abortion access and other related issues.
Reproductive freedom is a real issue that separates the two presidential candidates and their two parties from one another. Voters are entitled to vote on it. Many are.
I’m sure that within the Harris campaign, and allied Super PACs, there’s a fair amount of internal mansplaining going on about how they have to end on a positive, upbeat, message of unity and the future. Perhaps they’re wondering: What kind of a closing message is something so divisive, so discomforting, as abortion rights?
In fact, it’s a powerful closing message. Let the mansplaining political commentators wring their hands. Reproductive freedom is a crucial issue, and a winning one, and the Harris campaign would be foolish not to make it a closing one in these last couple of days."
I think it is fairly obvious that Trump is going more and more into cognitive decline.
I also think that the Nuremberg Rally at MSG was one of the great unenforced errors/self-owns in American political history. No one was able to white-wash it and a lot of people saw Trump and his GOP for what they are and I think if Harris wins, the MSG rally will be seen as one of the watershed moments.
A very interesting look at the Trump Campaign's descent into more chaos: https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2024/11/trump-2024-campaign-lewandowski-conway/680456/
There is a video of some members of the Minneapolis Somali community endorsing Trump because of the the economy and inflation. Fine. Communities are generally not monolithic even when overwhelming numbers vote in a particular way. There have always been Jewish Republicans even as most Jews vote overwhelmingly Democratic. Some of them have even been elected to office (Josh Mandel, Arlen Specter). Some are embarrassing trolls (Laura Loomer, Ben Shapiro, Jacob Wohl). Some are dangerous (Stephen Miller, Libs of TikTok Lady).
But I see no evidence that these men are leaders in their community and two seconds of googling revealed that Dustin Grange is a right-wing partisan warrior professionally.
So pardon my skepticism about the strength of this videos and its purpose.
On the other hand, Ann Selzer has a Ph.D from the University of Iowa and has been polling since 1996. She was closer than anyone in predicting 2016 and 2020 outcomes in Iowa as well as the elections between after. The one election she got wrong was she predicted Fred Hubbel would win the IA governor's race in 2018.
Do you see why I think there is a difference in credibility and a difference in what I think the two are doing?
Do you see why I question your posting of the MN video?
Is Harris going to win Iowa? Not necessarily and I would state it is still more likely than not that Trump carries the State. Emerson had Trump up by 8-9 and they are also respected but Selzer's result is not to be dismissed out of hand.
The most recent polls have Harris up between 5-10 in MN.
Trump isn't winning Minnesota and Dustin Grage is a right wing hack for Townhall Media. And I googled and couldn't find anyone else talking about this. How does Grage conclude these men are leaders of the Minneapolis Somali community?
On the other hand, Selzer is considered a gold-standard pollster and the reigning dean of polling Iowa. Her poll reveal thusly:
"The poll shows that women — particularly those who are older or who are politically independent — are driving the late shift toward Harris.
“Age and gender are the two most dynamic factors that are explaining these numbers,” Selzer said."
This is unlikely to happen but if every state were to shift as much as Iowa did under Selzer's poll, Harris would crush Trump in the EC with 412 EC votes to 126: https://x.com/AriDrennen/status/1852851096588538062?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1852851096588538062%7Ctwgr%5Ed82136f310c53f2f41e43fc9aa42d43d89978b84%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fdisqus.com%2Fembed%2Fcomments%2F%3Fbase%3Ddefaultf%3Dlawyersgunsmoneyblog-comt_i%3D14583820https3A2F2Fwww.lawyersgunsmoneyblog.com2F3Fp3D145838t_u%3Dhttps3A2F2Fwww.lawyersgunsmoneyblog.com2F20242F112Fis-trump-blowing-itt_e%3DIs20Trump20blowing20it3Ft_d%3DIs20Trump20blowing20it3F20-20Lawyers2C20Guns202620Moneyt_t%3DIs20Trump20blowing20it3Fs_o%3Ddescversion%3Df7a73aced2afb4b2a80d8f8c751c458b
Welp there is a poll with Harris at +3 in Iowa. The last time a Democratic candidate won Iowa was 2008. Though they did elect 3 Democrats to Congress in the 2018 Midterms. https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2024/11/02/iowa-poll-kamala-harris-leads-donald-trump-2024-presidential-race/75354033007/
Other polling shows Harris with a solid to overwhelming majority of Puerto Rican voters in Florida and rebounding with Latino voters nationwide.
"Democratic enthusiasm is double digits ahead of Republican enthusiasm: https://www.newsweek.com/democrat-voter-enthusiasm-republicans-double-digits-poll-1978203
Polling data just days before the U.S. presidential election has found a voter enthusiasm gap between Republicans and Democrats, with Vice President Kamala Harris more likely to benefit.
Gallup polling released on Thursday showed that while early voting has declined compared to 2020, the rate remains higher than it did in the years before the coronavirus pandemic. More than half of registered voters say they have already voted or plan to vote before November 5, declining from 64 percent in 2020 to 54 percent in 2024.
Gallup conducted the poll between October 14 to 27 and found that 70 percent of voters say they are "more enthusiastic than usual about voting," marking a significant jump from the 56 percent in March who said the same, but matching the roughly 71 percent in August.
More striking is the divide between the two parties, with 77 percent of Democrats saying they are more enthusiastic compared to 67 percent of Republicans. This marks a drop on both sides compared to Gallup polling from September, which found 80 percent of Democrats were more enthusiastic compared to 75 percent of Republicans."
On “Final Thoughts Before November Fifth”
I've thought of what the final moments of this campaign resemble for me or perhaps the Trump campaign overall. It reminds me of the Hemmingway line about how bankruptcy occurs gradually and then all at once. Even during the spring and summer when Biden was on the ropes, there were signs Trump's campaign was not what it should be. He wasn't killing it when theoretically he should have been able to. The past week or two has felt like the all at once stage.
"
One of the things I have noticed is numerous double Trump voters stating they are going for Harris but very few, if any, Clinton-Biden voters state they are going for Trump
"
Trump's lead among men might be declining: https://x.com/IanSams/status/1853488490102583651?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1853488490102583651%7Ctwgr%5E84bc3d2bd774a267bdcacdc1df77d5a77a3e3efc%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fdisqus.com%2Fembed%2Fcomments%2F%3Fbase%3Ddefaultf%3Dlawyersgunsmoneyblog-comt_i%3D14589120https3A2F2Fwww.lawyersgunsmoneyblog.com2F3Fp3D145891t_u%3Dhttps3A2F2Fwww.lawyersgunsmoneyblog.com2F20242F112Fthe-non-college-educated-man-problemt_e%3DThe20Non-College20Educated20Man20Problemt_d%3DThe20Non-College20Educated20Man20Problem20-20Lawyers2C20Guns202620Moneyt_t%3DThe20Non-College20Educated20Man20Problems_o%3Dascversion%3D3eb318847b9ba051e1aaed202ef5cc92
"
Red Eagle Politics is here to save Iowa with a trash poll conducted on Saturday and Sunday: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/iowa/
"
FWIW, Democrats, even the most worrywart of worrywart Democrats have been starting to sound more optimistic over the past 72 hours.
I have been feeling more serene and anxiety free than I did in 2016 and 2020. Harris has run as good a campaign as anyone can. Trump can still win but the last few weeks have seemingly created a lot of stuff that makes it better to be Harris than Trump. His MSG rally backfired probably and the MSM wasn't able to BSDI with Biden's garbage comment. The Selzer Poll indicates that abortion has been largely underlooked as an issue by the male pundits and pollsters who think it is a girl cooties issue. There is a fair amount of evidence that unaffiliated voters and late deciders are breaking for Harris over Trump by significant amounts.
Currently, AtlasIntel and some other right-wing pollsters with risible cross-tabs are trying to spin hard for Trump and it seems to influence the aggregators like Morris at 538 and Silver and Nate Cohn but no one else.
"
The Christian concept of a personal God has always perplexed me. Judaism just doesn't believe that God intervenes in the world in this way or any sort of way. If there is a God (and I tend to think there probably is not a God but I can't prove it one way or the other), whatever happens today, tomorrow, or the day after is not the result of that God's will.
"
Voters might be tired of anti-trans attacks: https://www.erininthemorning.com/p/new-poll-likely-voters-are-tired
"
The Bulwark staff has always been consistently anti-Trump and as far as I can tell, most of them have moved to the left to varying degrees.
"
The Nuremberg Rally at MSG appears to be one of the massive self-owns in American political history. We will see on Tuesday but as far as I can tell, nothing good as come out of it for Trump. There was the University of Central Florida poll which had Puerto Ricans in Florida going 85-8 for Harris. Univision had this poll for Pennsylvania:
"Final Univision poll in PA has 64-30; among Puerto Ricans, 67-27. Trump holding only 82% of his '20 voters (vs. Dems 89%)
The garbage joke broke through. Voters heard about it & don't laugh it off: 69% say it was "more racist than humorous", 67% see it as sign of Trump racism."
There is also Selzer's Iowa poll which rocketed Harris to +3.
Harris potentially has a firewall of between 400-500K voters in Pennsylvania right now.
Trump can still win but he has not done himself many favors recently.
"
In the year 2024 of our Common Era, it takes Bill Kristol to state the obvious: It's Abortion, Stupid: https://www.thebulwark.com/p/its-abortion-stupid
"The issue of abortion rights is critical to analyzing and understanding this election. But it makes mainstream commentators uneasy. Not because they’re not for abortion rights—I imagine most of them are. But because it somehow doesn’t seem as momentous or as suitable in deciding a crucial election, compared to issues like the economy, or democracy, or even immigration. It’s also a little personal and, rightfully, emotional. And so I think my (mostly male) counterparts are a bit shy about discussing the issue.
But you know what? Dobbs really was one of the most consequential Supreme Court decisions of modern times. Real lives have been affected and are being affected by it. As Selzer noted, in Iowa, it was the state ban that got people interested in voting. As Steve Kornacki observed, the saturation coverage around the abortion ban has been evident in Iowa polling—with massive opposition correlating into major Harris gains.
That’s just Iowa. But the ripple effects of Dobbs can be seen far beyond there, as well. The issue of abortion remains in question in several major states, and perhaps nationally. The next president will make judicial appointments, could sign legislation, and will have the power to take executive actions that will actually affect abortion access and other related issues.
Reproductive freedom is a real issue that separates the two presidential candidates and their two parties from one another. Voters are entitled to vote on it. Many are.
I’m sure that within the Harris campaign, and allied Super PACs, there’s a fair amount of internal mansplaining going on about how they have to end on a positive, upbeat, message of unity and the future. Perhaps they’re wondering: What kind of a closing message is something so divisive, so discomforting, as abortion rights?
In fact, it’s a powerful closing message. Let the mansplaining political commentators wring their hands. Reproductive freedom is a crucial issue, and a winning one, and the Harris campaign would be foolish not to make it a closing one in these last couple of days."
On “Open Mic for the week of 10/28/2024”
I am supposed to believe that something about a pet squirrel called Peanut is supposed to change the election.
"
The crowd at the rally were apparently perplexed and bored.
"
I think it is fairly obvious that Trump is going more and more into cognitive decline.
I also think that the Nuremberg Rally at MSG was one of the great unenforced errors/self-owns in American political history. No one was able to white-wash it and a lot of people saw Trump and his GOP for what they are and I think if Harris wins, the MSG rally will be seen as one of the watershed moments.
"
A very interesting look at the Trump Campaign's descent into more chaos: https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2024/11/trump-2024-campaign-lewandowski-conway/680456/
"
There is a video of some members of the Minneapolis Somali community endorsing Trump because of the the economy and inflation. Fine. Communities are generally not monolithic even when overwhelming numbers vote in a particular way. There have always been Jewish Republicans even as most Jews vote overwhelmingly Democratic. Some of them have even been elected to office (Josh Mandel, Arlen Specter). Some are embarrassing trolls (Laura Loomer, Ben Shapiro, Jacob Wohl). Some are dangerous (Stephen Miller, Libs of TikTok Lady).
But I see no evidence that these men are leaders in their community and two seconds of googling revealed that Dustin Grange is a right-wing partisan warrior professionally.
So pardon my skepticism about the strength of this videos and its purpose.
On the other hand, Ann Selzer has a Ph.D from the University of Iowa and has been polling since 1996. She was closer than anyone in predicting 2016 and 2020 outcomes in Iowa as well as the elections between after. The one election she got wrong was she predicted Fred Hubbel would win the IA governor's race in 2018.
Do you see why I think there is a difference in credibility and a difference in what I think the two are doing?
Do you see why I question your posting of the MN video?
Is Harris going to win Iowa? Not necessarily and I would state it is still more likely than not that Trump carries the State. Emerson had Trump up by 8-9 and they are also respected but Selzer's result is not to be dismissed out of hand.
The most recent polls have Harris up between 5-10 in MN.
"
Let's compare and contrast a righr-wing pollster with a normal pollster: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/
AtlasIntel (right-wing pollster) has Trump up by 6 in Nevada. The Times/Sienna has her up by 3.
AtlasIntel has Trump up by 3 in North Carolina. The Times has her up by 3.
In PA, AtlasIntel has Trump up by 2 and the Times has it even. Michigan is even per the Times but Harris is up in Wisconsin.
"
Hey yo!!!!
"
Trump isn't winning Minnesota and Dustin Grage is a right wing hack for Townhall Media. And I googled and couldn't find anyone else talking about this. How does Grage conclude these men are leaders of the Minneapolis Somali community?
On the other hand, Selzer is considered a gold-standard pollster and the reigning dean of polling Iowa. Her poll reveal thusly:
"The poll shows that women — particularly those who are older or who are politically independent — are driving the late shift toward Harris.
“Age and gender are the two most dynamic factors that are explaining these numbers,” Selzer said."
I will give this concern troll an F.
"
This is unlikely to happen but if every state were to shift as much as Iowa did under Selzer's poll, Harris would crush Trump in the EC with 412 EC votes to 126: https://x.com/AriDrennen/status/1852851096588538062?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1852851096588538062%7Ctwgr%5Ed82136f310c53f2f41e43fc9aa42d43d89978b84%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fdisqus.com%2Fembed%2Fcomments%2F%3Fbase%3Ddefaultf%3Dlawyersgunsmoneyblog-comt_i%3D14583820https3A2F2Fwww.lawyersgunsmoneyblog.com2F3Fp3D145838t_u%3Dhttps3A2F2Fwww.lawyersgunsmoneyblog.com2F20242F112Fis-trump-blowing-itt_e%3DIs20Trump20blowing20it3Ft_d%3DIs20Trump20blowing20it3F20-20Lawyers2C20Guns202620Moneyt_t%3DIs20Trump20blowing20it3Fs_o%3Ddescversion%3Df7a73aced2afb4b2a80d8f8c751c458b
"
Also Democrats knocked on 600,000 doors today in Pennsylvania
"
Welp there is a poll with Harris at +3 in Iowa. The last time a Democratic candidate won Iowa was 2008. Though they did elect 3 Democrats to Congress in the 2018 Midterms. https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2024/11/02/iowa-poll-kamala-harris-leads-donald-trump-2024-presidential-race/75354033007/
Other polling shows Harris with a solid to overwhelming majority of Puerto Rican voters in Florida and rebounding with Latino voters nationwide.
If all this is true and stays true on Tuesday....
"
Will this be as much of a scandal as a wilful misinterpretation of what Biden said?
https://www.cbsnews.com/pittsburgh/news/kamala-harris-chains-pennsylvania-halloween-parade/?fbclid=IwY2xjawGQ4zhleHRuA2FlbQIxMAABHd1GJpZZufdOaZlUSb_34yJdvR5TJay95PKLrwbFh41sD-Dq9_p3v05FnQ_aem_nh0MMRaxfPy6mHeYn-r9CQ
Pennsylvania Halloween parade features float of Harris changed to golf cart
"
Jaybird thinks he is the best armchair consultant the Democrats refuse to hire
"
"Democratic enthusiasm is double digits ahead of Republican enthusiasm: https://www.newsweek.com/democrat-voter-enthusiasm-republicans-double-digits-poll-1978203
Polling data just days before the U.S. presidential election has found a voter enthusiasm gap between Republicans and Democrats, with Vice President Kamala Harris more likely to benefit.
Gallup polling released on Thursday showed that while early voting has declined compared to 2020, the rate remains higher than it did in the years before the coronavirus pandemic. More than half of registered voters say they have already voted or plan to vote before November 5, declining from 64 percent in 2020 to 54 percent in 2024.
Gallup conducted the poll between October 14 to 27 and found that 70 percent of voters say they are "more enthusiastic than usual about voting," marking a significant jump from the 56 percent in March who said the same, but matching the roughly 71 percent in August.
More striking is the divide between the two parties, with 77 percent of Democrats saying they are more enthusiastic compared to 67 percent of Republicans. This marks a drop on both sides compared to Gallup polling from September, which found 80 percent of Democrats were more enthusiastic compared to 75 percent of Republicans."
"
The Silver One is paid by Thiel and dislikes Democrats for pushing back on him in 2022 and there are even more garbage right-wing polls now.
*Comment archive for non-registered commenters assembled by email address as provided.