"Vice President Kamala Harris and her running mate Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz took the lead in Guam’s presidential straw poll.
The Democrat team won 13,510 votes, 49.46% of those cast as of 1:30 a.m.
Former President Donald Trump and Ohio Sen. JD Vance took 12,624 votes, 46.22%.
While Guam residents can’t vote for president, Guam votes cast in the presidential straw poll are among the first cast and counted on American Election Day.
Island voters have predicted the winner of the popular vote for president in every race since 1980.
Guam’s straw poll only got the 2016 race wrong, when former Sen. Hillary Clinton won the popular vote but Trump won the Electoral College vote."
So did Guam predict the winner of the popular vote or the EC vote? In 2000, Gore won the popular vote but not the EC vote and Bush II won the straw poll: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2000_United_States_presidential_straw_poll_in_Guam"
FWIW, whenever Trump writes something like this, I assume things are not looking good for him: https://www.lawyersgunsmoneyblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/465698848_10114653023320626_5916772039225456877_n.jpg
"This is primarily due to the Selzer poll showing Kamala Harris with a three-point lead in Iowa. We’re not convinced this poll is entirely accurate, but it has given us pause enough to reconsider Harris’s broader standing in the Rust Belt – a region Democrats have polled well in for much of this election cycle.
Next, we’re shifting Arizona to the Leans Republican column. Donald Trump has led in virtually all polls this cycle, including recent polls. The most recent gold standard NYT/Siena poll showed Trump ahead by four with registered voters; we don’t think he wins by that much, but we do think he broadly has an edge here. At the same time, we’re holding firm on our Leans Democratic rating for neighboring Nevada."
Unintentionally or not, this is a good example of herding in action. Selzer has been considered a gold standard pollster for a long time and she has been more right than wrong within the margin of error in elections since 2016. She can still be wrong now and was wrong in 2018 (she predicted Democrats would get the IA governorship). But stating they have doubts is still getting a read between the lines of "But abortion and sexism are girls' cooties issues, not a serious issues."
"The Florida Election Lab, Prof. Michael McDonald’s project, had recorded 85.6 million early votes as of an hour ago. This site includes non-public sources of information so the numbers are higher than the NBC early vote tracker a lot of people have been citing. The site is quoting a 54.0% to 43.8% women to men gender split....It also doesn’t include any updated numbers from either California or New York, which haven’t reported since Sunday, so between that and some other stragglers we could be looking at 87-88 million early votes (lots of mailed ballots coming into today are still early votes of course)."
Opinions on whether good or bad for Democrats edited out
It is a good sign because the turnout is high in blue cities like Detroit, Ann Arbor, Philly, Pittsburg, Millwaukee, etc. Also Charlie Krik is panicking: https://www.rawstory.com/charlie-kirk-ground-game/
In-person voting is apparently strong in Philadelphia and Millwaukee is reporting lots of same-day registration: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/live-blog/presidential-election-2024-live-updates-rcna175556#rcrd62493
All things considered, she has run as close to a flawless campaign as can be imagined.
The people critiquing her tend to be very partisan Republicans, the kind of leftists who think Democrats/liberals are the real enemy, and the rest are double haters who might as well be partisan Republicans.
Honestly, when people predict things like Harris wins but Trump gets WI and PA, it feels like a desire for something unique to happen more than anything else
I'll take it. Though if Harris does that well, I think there is a good chance of Democrats retaining the Senate with a more than 50 seat and Walz as the tiebreaker lead.
Harris getting 52.4 percent of the vote indicates a push to the Ds because of Dobbs which might indicate a surprise in Texas. I think Tester and Brown both have puncher's chances to win reelection. Brown more than Tester.
1. I think the media and pollsters have been downplaying or outright ignoring Dobbs for the entire election because they are mainly not women and think of it as a girl cooties issue;
1a. They may have been right but Trump decided to go all in with the fratbro crowd and this might end up being a massive self-own. Marist/NPR/PBS thinks Harris has closed in on the gender gap: https://maristpoll.marist.edu/polls/u-s-presidential-contest-november-2024/
"The gender gap nationally has been cut by more than half. A 15-point gender gap now exists compared with 34 points in early October. Harris (47%) has carved into Trump's advantage (51%) among men. Now, only 4 points separate the two among these voters. Trump previously had a 16-point advantage among men. While Harris (55%) maintains a double-digit lead over Trump (44%) among women, her lead has decreased from 18 points."
3. I think October 27th (MSG rally) onwards has produced a downward spiral in the Trump campaign and in reaction to him. Trump's response to this seems to be a triple down and that is not playing well especially with Latino(a) voters and women.
You aren't the first people person doing this but I don't understand the people who think PA and WI will go for Trump. I'm not sure they will even be close.
According to NBC:
1. There are 1.77 million early votes in PA and the partisan breakdown is 56 D, 33 R, and 11 O.
Let's assume Harris and Trump get 90 percent or higher of their registered voters and split the Os evenly. This gives Harris a big fire wall. If you add in some other changes like the recent Univision poll giving Harris big leads among Puerto Rican voters and possible national ramifications from Selzer's Iowa +3 poll, Harris has a good firewall even if this only represents 20 percent or so of the total PA electorate.
2. Wisconsin has nearly 1.5 million ballots counted and the partisan breakdown is 41 O, 34 D, 25 R. In 2020 about 3.2 million people voted in Wisconsin so this represents nearly half the vote in. Again, assuming party registration equals Presidential candidate voted for, the GOP would really need to crush it with Os to have a chance and I don't see that in this environment. Though it is plausible.
I agree with you that Harris is a strong contender in NC especially considering that Democratic candidates are favorites in all the state-wide races and Josh Stein is crushing Robinson in the governor race.
Arizona barely flipped for Biden in 2020 and I can see it being a return to Trump. The current breakdown of 2.1 million votes cast is 42 R, 33 D, 25 O. There were about 3.3-3.4 million votes cast in Arizona in 2020 so it is possible a majority of the vote has already been cast. The again, Gallego crushes Lake in the polls. Emerson has Gallego up by 5, NY Times/Sienna by 8. Only right-wing push pollers give Lake an upside advantage (and Gallego ruthlessly fundraises using their polls). I have a hardtime seeing a universe where Gallego wins by 5-8 but Trump gets a victory.
Georgia I think is a Trump potential too. There are just over 4 million votes cast. The breakdown is 48 R, 45 D, 7 O. The final Presidential vote tally in 2020 was 4.9ish million. If the 2020 numbers hold up, it means an astonishing amount of the vote was cast before election day. Ds could win it but I think they would need a bunch of R breakaway votes here and they would really need to crush it with in person voting and with Os.
Trump’s closing arguments are a triple down on his worse: https://www.lawyersgunsmoneyblog.com/2024/11/the-closing-arguments-of-the-civil-discourse-candidates
I have seen a lot of anecdata like this about doorknockers and other GOTV types discussing how Dobbs is being underestimated. If this is true, we might have lots of surprises tomorrow night
Harris will win the following swing states: PA, MI, WI, NC, AZ, and NV pretty quickly.
I can see Georgia going either way. I think Harris wins NC because Stein is crushing Robinson and from what I read the local state-wide races are also all D leaning. So there is a bit of reverse coattails. The same is true in Arizona (Gallego is crushing Lake). NV won't be as close as it looks because it automatically registers new voters as Independents and these voters will swing strongly towards Harris especially in Clark County.
Iowa: I believe the Selzer poll is freaking Republicans out. Trump can still eek a win but Red Eagle Strategies rushed out a weekened push poll showing Trump up by 7 or 8 and that makes me think they are concerned.
If Harris wins Iowa for the reasons Selzer states she is winning (big swing from older women voters) expect a few more surprises such as Cruz and/or Scott going down.
Senate:
Democrats hold WI, MI, PA, NV, and AZ (technically AZ would be a gain). Rs gain WV
Toss-Up: Ohio, Montana, and Nebraska (technically R v. I). Brown has held is own and knows how to win. Tester looked like he was going down for a while but recent polling gives him a puncher's chance. If Selzer is correct about Iowa, it gives Brown and Tester and Osborn advantages. It may also give Allred and whoever is going against Scott advantages.
*Comment archive for non-registered commenters assembled by email address as provided.
On “2024 Election Day Live Stream, Reaction, Open Thread”
This is poorly written:
"Vice President Kamala Harris and her running mate Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz took the lead in Guam’s presidential straw poll.
The Democrat team won 13,510 votes, 49.46% of those cast as of 1:30 a.m.
Former President Donald Trump and Ohio Sen. JD Vance took 12,624 votes, 46.22%.
While Guam residents can’t vote for president, Guam votes cast in the presidential straw poll are among the first cast and counted on American Election Day.
Island voters have predicted the winner of the popular vote for president in every race since 1980.
Guam’s straw poll only got the 2016 race wrong, when former Sen. Hillary Clinton won the popular vote but Trump won the Electoral College vote."
So did Guam predict the winner of the popular vote or the EC vote? In 2000, Gore won the popular vote but not the EC vote and Bush II won the straw poll: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2000_United_States_presidential_straw_poll_in_Guam"
"
There were reports of Democrats switching back to more in person voting and there is some evidence it is happening. From Ralston:
"On Election Day 2020, 109,000 Clark County voters went to the polls. Repubs won by 2,000 ballots.
Today: 84,000 have already voted with 5 and a half hours left and Dems have a 2,000-ballot lead."
https://x.com/RalstonReports/status/1853911156026753313?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet
Clark County is 75 percent of Nevada. Nevada also automatically registers new voters as independents so the lead maybe bigger
"
Charlie Kirk is a bit panicked: https://www.rawstory.com/charlie-kirk-ground-game/
"
To this extent? No. He was more restrained.
"
FWIW, whenever Trump writes something like this, I assume things are not looking good for him: https://www.lawyersgunsmoneyblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/465698848_10114653023320626_5916772039225456877_n.jpg
He telegraphs that way if you will.
"
"This is primarily due to the Selzer poll showing Kamala Harris with a three-point lead in Iowa. We’re not convinced this poll is entirely accurate, but it has given us pause enough to reconsider Harris’s broader standing in the Rust Belt – a region Democrats have polled well in for much of this election cycle.
Next, we’re shifting Arizona to the Leans Republican column. Donald Trump has led in virtually all polls this cycle, including recent polls. The most recent gold standard NYT/Siena poll showed Trump ahead by four with registered voters; we don’t think he wins by that much, but we do think he broadly has an edge here. At the same time, we’re holding firm on our Leans Democratic rating for neighboring Nevada."
Unintentionally or not, this is a good example of herding in action. Selzer has been considered a gold standard pollster for a long time and she has been more right than wrong within the margin of error in elections since 2016. She can still be wrong now and was wrong in 2018 (she predicted Democrats would get the IA governorship). But stating they have doubts is still getting a read between the lines of "But abortion and sexism are girls' cooties issues, not a serious issues."
"
Is this or is this not a Melania body double?
https://x.com/NYinLA2121/status/1853889956974063963
On “The Joy Of Opening Time Capsules: The Night Before the 2024 Presidential Election”
Higher turnout elections are generally better for Democrats than not historically.
"
From Paul Campos at LGM
"The Florida Election Lab, Prof. Michael McDonald’s project, had recorded 85.6 million early votes as of an hour ago. This site includes non-public sources of information so the numbers are higher than the NBC early vote tracker a lot of people have been citing. The site is quoting a 54.0% to 43.8% women to men gender split....It also doesn’t include any updated numbers from either California or New York, which haven’t reported since Sunday, so between that and some other stragglers we could be looking at 87-88 million early votes (lots of mailed ballots coming into today are still early votes of course)."
Opinions on whether good or bad for Democrats edited out
"
Catturd seems like a nice person: https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/f6a3591005158b8012a2165ac2c22a49cce1cbc90b54a724a5928c31ee30ab51.jpg
"
It is a good sign because the turnout is high in blue cities like Detroit, Ann Arbor, Philly, Pittsburg, Millwaukee, etc. Also Charlie Krik is panicking: https://www.rawstory.com/charlie-kirk-ground-game/
"
Turnout is mixed and not where we want it to be. We need more people to vote. We can't let turnout flatline.
Text everyone you know.
Make more noise.
We need more.-CHARLIE KIRK TODAY
"
In-person voting is apparently strong in Philadelphia and Millwaukee is reporting lots of same-day registration: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/live-blog/presidential-election-2024-live-updates-rcna175556#rcrd62493
"
There were two bomb threats to polling places in Georgia (the state) that were traced to Russia quickly according to Georgia's Secretary of State.
On LGM, there is a report of a SWAT team surrounding a polling place in Portland, Maine.
"
All things considered, she has run as close to a flawless campaign as can be imagined.
The people critiquing her tend to be very partisan Republicans, the kind of leftists who think Democrats/liberals are the real enemy, and the rest are double haters who might as well be partisan Republicans.
Most of this crowd swings white and male.
"
Honestly, when people predict things like Harris wins but Trump gets WI and PA, it feels like a desire for something unique to happen more than anything else
"
Trivia, the town of Dixiville Notch has voted:
They vote 5-1 Ayotte - Craig and split 3-3 Harris -Trump.
"
I'll take it. Though if Harris does that well, I think there is a good chance of Democrats retaining the Senate with a more than 50 seat and Walz as the tiebreaker lead.
Harris getting 52.4 percent of the vote indicates a push to the Ds because of Dobbs which might indicate a surprise in Texas. I think Tester and Brown both have puncher's chances to win reelection. Brown more than Tester.
"
Some more general thoughts:
1. I think the media and pollsters have been downplaying or outright ignoring Dobbs for the entire election because they are mainly not women and think of it as a girl cooties issue;
1a. They may have been right but Trump decided to go all in with the fratbro crowd and this might end up being a massive self-own. Marist/NPR/PBS thinks Harris has closed in on the gender gap: https://maristpoll.marist.edu/polls/u-s-presidential-contest-november-2024/
"The gender gap nationally has been cut by more than half. A 15-point gender gap now exists compared with 34 points in early October. Harris (47%) has carved into Trump's advantage (51%) among men. Now, only 4 points separate the two among these voters. Trump previously had a 16-point advantage among men. While Harris (55%) maintains a double-digit lead over Trump (44%) among women, her lead has decreased from 18 points."
3. I think October 27th (MSG rally) onwards has produced a downward spiral in the Trump campaign and in reaction to him. Trump's response to this seems to be a triple down and that is not playing well especially with Latino(a) voters and women.
"
You aren't the first people person doing this but I don't understand the people who think PA and WI will go for Trump. I'm not sure they will even be close.
According to NBC:
1. There are 1.77 million early votes in PA and the partisan breakdown is 56 D, 33 R, and 11 O.
Let's assume Harris and Trump get 90 percent or higher of their registered voters and split the Os evenly. This gives Harris a big fire wall. If you add in some other changes like the recent Univision poll giving Harris big leads among Puerto Rican voters and possible national ramifications from Selzer's Iowa +3 poll, Harris has a good firewall even if this only represents 20 percent or so of the total PA electorate.
2. Wisconsin has nearly 1.5 million ballots counted and the partisan breakdown is 41 O, 34 D, 25 R. In 2020 about 3.2 million people voted in Wisconsin so this represents nearly half the vote in. Again, assuming party registration equals Presidential candidate voted for, the GOP would really need to crush it with Os to have a chance and I don't see that in this environment. Though it is plausible.
I agree with you that Harris is a strong contender in NC especially considering that Democratic candidates are favorites in all the state-wide races and Josh Stein is crushing Robinson in the governor race.
Arizona barely flipped for Biden in 2020 and I can see it being a return to Trump. The current breakdown of 2.1 million votes cast is 42 R, 33 D, 25 O. There were about 3.3-3.4 million votes cast in Arizona in 2020 so it is possible a majority of the vote has already been cast. The again, Gallego crushes Lake in the polls. Emerson has Gallego up by 5, NY Times/Sienna by 8. Only right-wing push pollers give Lake an upside advantage (and Gallego ruthlessly fundraises using their polls). I have a hardtime seeing a universe where Gallego wins by 5-8 but Trump gets a victory.
Georgia I think is a Trump potential too. There are just over 4 million votes cast. The breakdown is 48 R, 45 D, 7 O. The final Presidential vote tally in 2020 was 4.9ish million. If the 2020 numbers hold up, it means an astonishing amount of the vote was cast before election day. Ds could win it but I think they would need a bunch of R breakaway votes here and they would really need to crush it with in person voting and with Os.
"
So you want us to do it but you admit you are incapable of doing it yourself. Great
"
Trump’s closing arguments are a triple down on his worse: https://www.lawyersgunsmoneyblog.com/2024/11/the-closing-arguments-of-the-civil-discourse-candidates
"
https://x.com/notcapnamerica/status/1853244712360022520?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1853244712360022520%7Ctwgr%5Ed0a036ccdbfb332a9c8a1e545ad94afc16ed58ba%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fdisqus.com%2Fembed%2Fcomments%2F%3Fbase%3Ddefaultf%3Dlawyersgunsmoneyblog-comt_i%3D14591020https3A2F2Fwww.lawyersgunsmoneyblog.com2F3Fp3D145910t_u%3Dhttps3A2F2Fwww.lawyersgunsmoneyblog.com2F20242F112Flgm-prediction-postt_e%3DLGM20prediction20postt_d%3DLGM20prediction20post20-20Lawyers2C20Guns202620Moneyt_t%3DLGM20prediction20posts_o%3Ddescversion%3D3eb318847b9ba051e1aaed202ef5cc92
I have seen a lot of anecdata like this about doorknockers and other GOTV types discussing how Dobbs is being underestimated. If this is true, we might have lots of surprises tomorrow night
"
Dartmouth has Harris up by 28 in New Hampshire: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/us/elections/polls-president-new-hampshire.html
"
Harris wins and Democrats retake the House.
Harris will win the following swing states: PA, MI, WI, NC, AZ, and NV pretty quickly.
I can see Georgia going either way. I think Harris wins NC because Stein is crushing Robinson and from what I read the local state-wide races are also all D leaning. So there is a bit of reverse coattails. The same is true in Arizona (Gallego is crushing Lake). NV won't be as close as it looks because it automatically registers new voters as Independents and these voters will swing strongly towards Harris especially in Clark County.
Iowa: I believe the Selzer poll is freaking Republicans out. Trump can still eek a win but Red Eagle Strategies rushed out a weekened push poll showing Trump up by 7 or 8 and that makes me think they are concerned.
If Harris wins Iowa for the reasons Selzer states she is winning (big swing from older women voters) expect a few more surprises such as Cruz and/or Scott going down.
Senate:
Democrats hold WI, MI, PA, NV, and AZ (technically AZ would be a gain). Rs gain WV
Toss-Up: Ohio, Montana, and Nebraska (technically R v. I). Brown has held is own and knows how to win. Tester looked like he was going down for a while but recent polling gives him a puncher's chance. If Selzer is correct about Iowa, it gives Brown and Tester and Osborn advantages. It may also give Allred and whoever is going against Scott advantages.
*Comment archive for non-registered commenters assembled by email address as provided.