Welp, Trump's advisors are apparently considering a warrior board in order to demote insufficiently loyal officers: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/live/2024/nov/12/donald-trump-marco-rubio-juan-merchan-stormy-daniels-us-politics-live
I never thought the Leopards would eat my face: https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/35e20d57ba367eac41506b058cf7c800884e37895139209eb3464a5e57e7b0f8.jpg
Well it sure looks like Putin has Compromising materials on Trump and also might have done unspecified stuff during the 2024 election: https://newrepublic.com/post/188284/vladimir-putin-donald-trump-election-obligations
“To achieve success in the election, Donald Trump relied on certain forces to which he has corresponding obligations,” [ Presidential aide] Nikolay Patrushev told the business daily Kommersant in response to a question about whether the outcome of the presidential election would bode well for Russia. “As a responsible person, he will be obliged to fulfill them.”
The stupid it burns. AOC asked people in her district who voted for her and Trump why and got a range of responses, most of which provoke a headdesk in me: https://www.reddit.com/r/WhitePeopleTwitter/comments/1goup3n/americans_are_just_dumb_as_hell/?share_id=xnTBX3ZXvRY85Itt_hjqZ&utm_content=1&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=ioscss&utm_source=share&utm_term=1&rdt=49778
The short version is this:
- They DON’T believe Harris would have delivered on promises that they DO like (eg home health care funding, ending taxes on tips, first-time home buyer assistance, protecting reproductive rights)
- They DO believe Harris would have delivered on promises that they DON’T like (eg supporting Israel & Ukraine)
- They DON’T believe Trump will deliver on promises that they DON’T like (eg deporting millions, rounding up political opponents, ending environmental accords & programs, replacing progressive taxation with regressive taxes & tariffs, adding more far-right judges to the federal bench)
- They DO believe Trump will deliver on promises that they DO like (eg ending war everywhere with a phone call, ending taxes on tips(!)
Who is allowed to practice identity politics? https://donmoynihan.substack.com/p/who-is-allowed-to-practice-identity?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=492324&post_id=151431627
"Lets unpack this a bit. Dukakis was the son of immigrants who ran against a scion of an American political dynasty. Gore and Kerry lost to the next generation of that dynasty. Second-term Barack Obama defeated a hedge-fund leader whose father was a Governor. Clinton lost to a man who lived in a golden mansion.
To run for President certainly implies some elite status. But relative to who they were running against, the Democrats Dowd lists are not “avatars of elitism” by any stretch of the imagination, unless elite is drained of any signifier of political or economic power. Which of course is the point. The elites today are not the billionaire President or his plutocrat backers, but the adjunct faculty member who talks about Latinx people."
More evidence for people voting for Trump and no one else includes:
North Carolina. Trump's margin of victory above Harris was about 2 percent. On the other hand, Democrats swept the major state wide races (Gov, AG, Sos, Lt. Gov) and appear to be on track to break the GOP supermajority in the State Legislature.
1. Harris received more votes in Nevada than Rosen;
2. Rosen is going to win reelection because about 70K people showed up to vote for Trump and did not vote for Sam Brown for Senate.
3. The same thing apparently happened in elections for the House of Reps and State Legislature because Democrats easily one their three seats in the House again and appear on track to keeping their supermajorities in the Nevada State Legislature
1. It's inflation, stupid. The same thing that has toppled most governments, left or right, in elections since 2021.
2. Lots of people neither take Trump seriously or literally based on numerous articles I have read. Or 2024 might the F around and find out election for a lot of people.
3. Trump's coattails are remarkably small to non-existent.
FWIW, it looks like Trump is not winning a majority but a plurality.
The final vote account according to Silver appears to be this:
1. Trump = 78.5 million votes (49.9 %)
2. Harris= 76.2 million votes (48.4 %)
3. Other = 2.6 million votes (1.5%)
Total turnout 157.3m votes (about 1.3 million less than 2020)
Trump Margin = 1.5 percent
Turning point state: PA (+2.1 %)
Notably, PA is the only swing state where a Republican won their Senate race. No one ever seriously thought that Montana, Ohio, or West Virginia would go for Harris and there is an entirely plausible scenario where Harris wins the election but Tester and Brown lose their reelection bods.
"Vice President Kamala Harris and her running mate Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz took the lead in Guam’s presidential straw poll.
The Democrat team won 13,510 votes, 49.46% of those cast as of 1:30 a.m.
Former President Donald Trump and Ohio Sen. JD Vance took 12,624 votes, 46.22%.
While Guam residents can’t vote for president, Guam votes cast in the presidential straw poll are among the first cast and counted on American Election Day.
Island voters have predicted the winner of the popular vote for president in every race since 1980.
Guam’s straw poll only got the 2016 race wrong, when former Sen. Hillary Clinton won the popular vote but Trump won the Electoral College vote."
So did Guam predict the winner of the popular vote or the EC vote? In 2000, Gore won the popular vote but not the EC vote and Bush II won the straw poll: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2000_United_States_presidential_straw_poll_in_Guam"
FWIW, whenever Trump writes something like this, I assume things are not looking good for him: https://www.lawyersgunsmoneyblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/465698848_10114653023320626_5916772039225456877_n.jpg
"This is primarily due to the Selzer poll showing Kamala Harris with a three-point lead in Iowa. We’re not convinced this poll is entirely accurate, but it has given us pause enough to reconsider Harris’s broader standing in the Rust Belt – a region Democrats have polled well in for much of this election cycle.
Next, we’re shifting Arizona to the Leans Republican column. Donald Trump has led in virtually all polls this cycle, including recent polls. The most recent gold standard NYT/Siena poll showed Trump ahead by four with registered voters; we don’t think he wins by that much, but we do think he broadly has an edge here. At the same time, we’re holding firm on our Leans Democratic rating for neighboring Nevada."
Unintentionally or not, this is a good example of herding in action. Selzer has been considered a gold standard pollster for a long time and she has been more right than wrong within the margin of error in elections since 2016. She can still be wrong now and was wrong in 2018 (she predicted Democrats would get the IA governorship). But stating they have doubts is still getting a read between the lines of "But abortion and sexism are girls' cooties issues, not a serious issues."
*Comment archive for non-registered commenters assembled by email address as provided.
On “3 Headed Monster of the New Trump Diplomatic Machine: Cerberus with a hand shake.”
In further trolling and signaling:
Peter Hegseth is his nominee for Defense Secretary and Huckabee is his nominee for Ambassador to Israel
On “Open Mic for the week of 11/11/2024”
Welp, Trump's advisors are apparently considering a warrior board in order to demote insufficiently loyal officers: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/live/2024/nov/12/donald-trump-marco-rubio-juan-merchan-stormy-daniels-us-politics-live
"
I think it is more what Kompromat will be released into media
"
I never thought the Leopards would eat my face: https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/35e20d57ba367eac41506b058cf7c800884e37895139209eb3464a5e57e7b0f8.jpg
"
Well it sure looks like Putin has Compromising materials on Trump and also might have done unspecified stuff during the 2024 election: https://newrepublic.com/post/188284/vladimir-putin-donald-trump-election-obligations
“To achieve success in the election, Donald Trump relied on certain forces to which he has corresponding obligations,” [ Presidential aide] Nikolay Patrushev told the business daily Kommersant in response to a question about whether the outcome of the presidential election would bode well for Russia. “As a responsible person, he will be obliged to fulfill them.”
On “He Got Away With It”
So does AOC. We do need someone who can speak bro.
But I suspect a lot of people are going to be shocked when the leopards eat their faces
"
The stupid it burns. AOC asked people in her district who voted for her and Trump why and got a range of responses, most of which provoke a headdesk in me: https://www.reddit.com/r/WhitePeopleTwitter/comments/1goup3n/americans_are_just_dumb_as_hell/?share_id=xnTBX3ZXvRY85Itt_hjqZ&utm_content=1&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=ioscss&utm_source=share&utm_term=1&rdt=49778
The short version is this:
- They DON’T believe Harris would have delivered on promises that they DO like (eg home health care funding, ending taxes on tips, first-time home buyer assistance, protecting reproductive rights)
- They DO believe Harris would have delivered on promises that they DON’T like (eg supporting Israel & Ukraine)
- They DON’T believe Trump will deliver on promises that they DON’T like (eg deporting millions, rounding up political opponents, ending environmental accords & programs, replacing progressive taxation with regressive taxes & tariffs, adding more far-right judges to the federal bench)
- They DO believe Trump will deliver on promises that they DO like (eg ending war everywhere with a phone call, ending taxes on tips(!)
On “Open Mic for the week of 11/11/2024”
Who is allowed to practice identity politics? https://donmoynihan.substack.com/p/who-is-allowed-to-practice-identity?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=492324&post_id=151431627
"Lets unpack this a bit. Dukakis was the son of immigrants who ran against a scion of an American political dynasty. Gore and Kerry lost to the next generation of that dynasty. Second-term Barack Obama defeated a hedge-fund leader whose father was a Governor. Clinton lost to a man who lived in a golden mansion.
To run for President certainly implies some elite status. But relative to who they were running against, the Democrats Dowd lists are not “avatars of elitism” by any stretch of the imagination, unless elite is drained of any signifier of political or economic power. Which of course is the point. The elites today are not the billionaire President or his plutocrat backers, but the adjunct faculty member who talks about Latinx people."
"
AOC asked people who voted for her and Trump why and got a lot of responses along the lines of "the stupid, it burns"
https://bsky.app/profile/tamaracharese.bsky.social/post/3laolnxooie2q
On “He Got Away With It”
More evidence for people voting for Trump and no one else includes:
North Carolina. Trump's margin of victory above Harris was about 2 percent. On the other hand, Democrats swept the major state wide races (Gov, AG, Sos, Lt. Gov) and appear to be on track to break the GOP supermajority in the State Legislature.
"
Make of this what you will but:
1. Harris received more votes in Nevada than Rosen;
2. Rosen is going to win reelection because about 70K people showed up to vote for Trump and did not vote for Sam Brown for Senate.
3. The same thing apparently happened in elections for the House of Reps and State Legislature because Democrats easily one their three seats in the House again and appear on track to keeping their supermajorities in the Nevada State Legislature
"
https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/1855608085571580169?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1855608085571580169%7Ctwgr%5E4cb579babd391fc75989b35520707dd6414ef5f2%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.lawyersgunsmoneyblog.com%2F2024%2F11%2Fthe-emerging-picture
"
I think the answer is more likely:
1. It's inflation, stupid. The same thing that has toppled most governments, left or right, in elections since 2021.
2. Lots of people neither take Trump seriously or literally based on numerous articles I have read. Or 2024 might the F around and find out election for a lot of people.
3. Trump's coattails are remarkably small to non-existent.
"
FWIW, it looks like Trump is not winning a majority but a plurality.
The final vote account according to Silver appears to be this:
1. Trump = 78.5 million votes (49.9 %)
2. Harris= 76.2 million votes (48.4 %)
3. Other = 2.6 million votes (1.5%)
Total turnout 157.3m votes (about 1.3 million less than 2020)
Trump Margin = 1.5 percent
Turning point state: PA (+2.1 %)
Notably, PA is the only swing state where a Republican won their Senate race. No one ever seriously thought that Montana, Ohio, or West Virginia would go for Harris and there is an entirely plausible scenario where Harris wins the election but Tester and Brown lose their reelection bods.
"
We are in "The Democrats would have won if they did all these things which coincidentally happen to align with my ideological priors" season.
On “2024 Election Day Live Stream, Reaction, Open Thread”
It is encouraging but let's wait for more data.
"
Stephen Miller on Musk's thing: If you know any men who haven’t voted, get them to the polls.
"
Trump is having a normal about Philadelphia
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/503ba08866d41eaf60a3db5b6ae245b397f330223e861ba89edaf7f5b028ba6a.jpg
"
You are potentially right but I want him to have some info and be freaking out.
"
This is poorly written:
"Vice President Kamala Harris and her running mate Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz took the lead in Guam’s presidential straw poll.
The Democrat team won 13,510 votes, 49.46% of those cast as of 1:30 a.m.
Former President Donald Trump and Ohio Sen. JD Vance took 12,624 votes, 46.22%.
While Guam residents can’t vote for president, Guam votes cast in the presidential straw poll are among the first cast and counted on American Election Day.
Island voters have predicted the winner of the popular vote for president in every race since 1980.
Guam’s straw poll only got the 2016 race wrong, when former Sen. Hillary Clinton won the popular vote but Trump won the Electoral College vote."
So did Guam predict the winner of the popular vote or the EC vote? In 2000, Gore won the popular vote but not the EC vote and Bush II won the straw poll: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2000_United_States_presidential_straw_poll_in_Guam"
"
There were reports of Democrats switching back to more in person voting and there is some evidence it is happening. From Ralston:
"On Election Day 2020, 109,000 Clark County voters went to the polls. Repubs won by 2,000 ballots.
Today: 84,000 have already voted with 5 and a half hours left and Dems have a 2,000-ballot lead."
https://x.com/RalstonReports/status/1853911156026753313?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet
Clark County is 75 percent of Nevada. Nevada also automatically registers new voters as independents so the lead maybe bigger
"
Charlie Kirk is a bit panicked: https://www.rawstory.com/charlie-kirk-ground-game/
"
To this extent? No. He was more restrained.
"
FWIW, whenever Trump writes something like this, I assume things are not looking good for him: https://www.lawyersgunsmoneyblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/465698848_10114653023320626_5916772039225456877_n.jpg
He telegraphs that way if you will.
"
"This is primarily due to the Selzer poll showing Kamala Harris with a three-point lead in Iowa. We’re not convinced this poll is entirely accurate, but it has given us pause enough to reconsider Harris’s broader standing in the Rust Belt – a region Democrats have polled well in for much of this election cycle.
Next, we’re shifting Arizona to the Leans Republican column. Donald Trump has led in virtually all polls this cycle, including recent polls. The most recent gold standard NYT/Siena poll showed Trump ahead by four with registered voters; we don’t think he wins by that much, but we do think he broadly has an edge here. At the same time, we’re holding firm on our Leans Democratic rating for neighboring Nevada."
Unintentionally or not, this is a good example of herding in action. Selzer has been considered a gold standard pollster for a long time and she has been more right than wrong within the margin of error in elections since 2016. She can still be wrong now and was wrong in 2018 (she predicted Democrats would get the IA governorship). But stating they have doubts is still getting a read between the lines of "But abortion and sexism are girls' cooties issues, not a serious issues."
*Comment archive for non-registered commenters assembled by email address as provided.