I take it that this means that their internal polling always had them within the margin of error and perhaps a point or two ahead and/or a point or two behind depending on the time and state.
I'm going to continue with my view that seems to make the professional and armchair pundits of the world deeply unhappy. It was inflation, stupid. Inflation kicked in world wide in 2021 and has felled the governments that were in charge in 2021 left and right. There are dozens of examples of throw the bums out election results since 2021. Liberal parties have been defeated and conservative parties have been defeated.
I will also propose that it is possible Harris did everything correctly or as correctly as possible and the result was a relatively narrow loss for the Democrats all things considered. Trump only received a plurality vote. I think the current percentage is 49.9 or 49.8 compared to Harris' 48.6. The Democrats managed to flip a three seats in New York and two seats in California. The GOP managed to flip some seats as well and this resulted in stasis basically, a narrow GOP majority in the House. The GOP flipped four Senate seats but only one of them was in a state one would consider purple/blue and that was Pennsylvania. No one ever seriously thought Harris was a contender in Montana, Ohio, or West Virginia and it is highly plausible that she could have won but Tester, Brown, and Manchin would be replaced by Republicans.
But all of this is not very fun and doesn't let people show how was and good their opinions views and advice are so it will be ignored. Let us stroke our chins pompously and wonder why the New York Times does not offer us an op-ed column.
He doesn't like vaccines but that doesn't mean he is against all injections. RFK Jr states heroin helped him get ahead in school: https://www.newsweek.com/fact-check-rfk-jr-says-heroin-helped-him-reach-top-his-class-1991956
Not really. As was demonstrated by numerous posts and this one, parties in charge of government in 2021 were getting pounded in elections. This has been true regardless of the ideological lien of the government.
If anything, Harris/Democrats loss is a lot more narrow than that of other incumbent parties.
I don't think it is a wild overstatement to state that doing everything right does not necessarily mean victory. It might just mean coming in a close second instead of a distant second.
But people find this unsatisfying and will fire up every cognitive defense they can to not recognize it.
Hegseth: Multiple affairs and now information that he paid off a woman to dismiss a sexual assault charge.
Gaetz: Almost certainly paid a 17 year old for sex. We know he paid other young women for sex.
McMahon: Stood by her husband as he was credibly accused of sexual harassment and potentially rape.
Trump's first run and admin were basically revenge for Obama making fun of him.
Trump's third run and admin are going to be revenge at Biden and women especially E. Jean Carroll and anyone else who accused him of sexual assault. Apparently Hegseth interviewed three times in the first Trump term for Veteran's Affairs but was rejected because of his extramarital affairs.
The optimistic version is theoretically they will all squabble with each other, potentially be easily outsmarted, and not get much done or do much damage.
The pessimistic version is that incompetents and hacks can still do a hell of a lot of damage, they will demoralize enough long term civil servants, make them quit, and the positions will be filled with malicious actors and/or incompetents who will cause more damage, and if/when Democrats manage to regain control of the executive, it will be hard to rebuild it all.
Other pessimistic outlooks is that the Project 2025 staff wants these incompetents in charge because they are maximalist-bolsheviks.
So just like almost every other government in power in 2021, if anything Harris lost more narrowly than others. Trump is down to a plurality victory and the House barely budged.
Let's obey at the New York Times: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/18/style/jon-jones-trump-dance-bowers-bosa.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare
I don't know how swayable he actually is. Again, it feels like everyone thinks they can be Bugs Bunny to his Daffy Duck and I am not sure that is the case.
So far he has made three normalish nominations: Burgum at Interior, Rubio at State, and Stefanik as U.N. rep. Burgum is horrible in the way most Republicans would be horrible at Interior. Rubio and Stefanik are not exactly known for their backbones but on a substantive level, they are normal picks.
Everyone else is not and there is either scrapping the bottom of the barrel because everyone normal said no thank you and/or some flexes going on and showing of maximalist damage.
Trump is capable of learning and he is showing he doesn't want anyone with a spine to tell him no this time.
And Project 2025 is basically run by ideologues who are going for a shock and awe approach. Could it backfire and be less damaging that I fear? Yeah. Could it cause massive amounts of social, economic, and other damage even if administered incompletely? Also yes.
Trump is also a someone who is bent on revenge. Yes there were plenty of unhinged rants during his first admin at 4:00 a.m. but I see no reason to be dismissive.
Markwayne Mullin apparently went from discussing how they have evidence of Gaetz bragging about crushing up ED pills and chasing it with energy drinks to now stating he is okay with Trump's pick.
The only way to win with Trump is not to play. I think that has been proven numerous times but it still seems like a lot of people with pet issues have overrides that make it impossible for them to accept this fact.
So far Newsom and Pritzker and some other Western Democrats seem to be the only ones that get this.
The only way to win with Trump is not to play, otherwise you just become a dignity wraith who will be thrown under the bus eventually.
I agree partially. I think Biden was trapped in a paradox of liberal democracy but it is hard to state "Trump is an existential threat to democracy" for months and then turn around and pretend he is Mitt Romney without causing disillusion so I understand why people are upset.
I also think it is mainly up to blue states to resist Trump at this point and time.
But still, Democrats don't have to help and they don't have to pretend Trump is a normal politician that can be worked with despite any overriding issues or passions.
His choices for cabinet positions are absurd or worse. At the very least, no one is going to share intelligence with us for 4 years. Who knows what damage Kennedy and others will do?
I'm not stating anyone should state "to arms citizens" but I am shocked by the number of people who think it is possible to work with Trump and co. somehow and not getting burned.
But there seems to be something about having a pet cause or passion project that thinks "Wait a minute, there is something I can work with here" instead of realizing that we are dealing with Bolshevik-maximalists and/or cranks.
I pointed out a version below of someone who doesn't quite seem to get Hegseth's unsavory past is a feature, not a bug. There was another op-ed last week in the Times on a similar theme but for RFK Jr.
I take Trump and Co. seriously and literally and I don't see why this is wrong except people think it is cringe and not cool because it is not savvy or something.
During the first Trump term, I recall someone, I can't remember who, maybe Kevin Drum, maybe Matt Y noting that Trump treats all problems as if they are Manhattan Real Estate. I.e., everything really is a zero-sum game and he who acquires most and first wins. He doesn't comprehend things like Ricardo's Law of Comparative Advantage.
This seems to be true for everything but there is something about having a passion or pet issue that causes people to think "Wait a minute, maybe I can work with something here" instead of realizing that the only way to win with Trump is not to play."
Plus I think people think they can outsmart him like Bugs Bunny outsmarted Daffy Duck.
"Mr. Hegseth, the former Fox News host and veteran Mr. Trump nominated to lead the Department of Defense, lacks the necessary leadership experience. His antediluvian views on women in the armed forces, his advocacy for soldiers accused of war crimes and his past remarks on racial issues alone should be disqualifying in a confirmation process. (The news last week that he was investigated in 2017 after being accused of sexual assault won’t help his cause.) But his apparent disenchantment with American military engagement abroad and his skepticism of nation-building by armed forces and endless wars should not.
Mr. Hegseth, despite his heavy baggage, represents something that needs to be acknowledged: the deep bipartisan dissatisfaction with a military leadership that has presided over 20 years of failed wars and incalculable costs to America’s veterans and their families. If Mr. Trump could find a nominee for secretary of defense who holds similar views, but without his obvious shortcomings, his choice would be justified."
The heavy baggage is the point!!! It is the only point!! How hard is it for people to understand this?
Fair to an extent but everyone here seems to be treating this like a normal situation where Trump can be guided into being mitigated/salvaged or they are committing variants of the armchair pundit's fantasy and imputing what they would do as possible thinks Trump can do.
This is absurd. His very nominees should show you what kind of admin we are going to get and there is a weird copium that imagines the infighting and potential incompetence will stop the damage as opposed to producing the more Kafkaesque, unpredictable damage, unpredictable in terms of timing and extent. It will be completely erratic.
I think Trump has a great opportunity to reimagine government. I had to look up what the DoE even does. The DoD is a greater problem. It’s been documented that it’s many headed hydra would be impossible to rein in due to the outsized portion of our national economy that it occupies."
Why do people impute these things onto Trump as things he is capable of doing?
The absurdity is the point partially. Trump is trying to humiliate and show he is boss and seeing how much he can get away with without pushback. He is also surrounded by fanatics who want to go for a maximalist breakneck approach.
Trump apparently wants to do court martials: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/trump-transition-team-compiling-list-current-former-us-military-office-rcna180489
So tell me, how are Senate Republicans going to save his presidency?
I think he is also scrapping the bottom of the barrel. Qualified people are telling him no thank you. Reading between the lines of a TruthSocial rant, it looks like he asked Dimon to be Treasury Secretary and Dimon reufsed
It is amazing how much people still talk about this like we are still in a politics as normal situation. We very much aren't. Is it copium? An overriding psychological thought that appearing as a chicken little is the worst thing someone can be? "How uncool, someone saw me express a bit of anxiety?" Wanting to seem cool and savvy like you can outfox Trump and Co. like this is a Bugs Bunny cartoon and all you need to do is "It's duck season"
Trump and Co. are basically proceeding at maximalist speed like a bunch of Bolsheviks:
1. Almost every nomination he has given so far would be beyond the pale for any other President-elect? Tulsi for director of national intelligence? The one Russian media describes as "the girlfriend?" As far as I can tell, Rubio and Stefanik are the only in the realms of normal appointments so far.
2. We are already hearing gonzo plans for doing things like adjourning Congress using Article II, Section iii and/or declaring martial law for mass deportations.
There is a chance that Trump and Co. are getting ahead of their skies and things fall apart quickly. There is also a chance that we are flying blind in completely uncharted territory and things can get very chaotic and very bad. But the overwhelming sentiment of OT is that showing any alarm is the worst thing in the world apparently, so uncool.
Trump has already ritually humiliated RFK Jr by making him eat McDonald's. In the same photo, was Elon, Johnson, Trump, and Trump Jr. Who wasn't around Vance and Thune?
I wouldn't be surprised if they think they can get away with trying to adjourn the Senate.
*Comment archive for non-registered commenters assembled by email address as provided.
On “Huffpo reports that Harris internals *NEVER* had her ahead.”
I take it that this means that their internal polling always had them within the margin of error and perhaps a point or two ahead and/or a point or two behind depending on the time and state.
I'm going to continue with my view that seems to make the professional and armchair pundits of the world deeply unhappy. It was inflation, stupid. Inflation kicked in world wide in 2021 and has felled the governments that were in charge in 2021 left and right. There are dozens of examples of throw the bums out election results since 2021. Liberal parties have been defeated and conservative parties have been defeated.
I will also propose that it is possible Harris did everything correctly or as correctly as possible and the result was a relatively narrow loss for the Democrats all things considered. Trump only received a plurality vote. I think the current percentage is 49.9 or 49.8 compared to Harris' 48.6. The Democrats managed to flip a three seats in New York and two seats in California. The GOP managed to flip some seats as well and this resulted in stasis basically, a narrow GOP majority in the House. The GOP flipped four Senate seats but only one of them was in a state one would consider purple/blue and that was Pennsylvania. No one ever seriously thought Harris was a contender in Montana, Ohio, or West Virginia and it is highly plausible that she could have won but Tester, Brown, and Manchin would be replaced by Republicans.
But all of this is not very fun and doesn't let people show how was and good their opinions views and advice are so it will be ignored. Let us stroke our chins pompously and wonder why the New York Times does not offer us an op-ed column.
On “Open Mic for the week of 11/25/2024”
He doesn't like vaccines but that doesn't mean he is against all injections. RFK Jr states heroin helped him get ahead in school: https://www.newsweek.com/fact-check-rfk-jr-says-heroin-helped-him-reach-top-his-class-1991956
"
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/nov/26/trump-transition-team-fbi-security-clearances-background-checks
How to plan a coup in the open
"
The age of in your face oligarchs
https://www.vox.com/money/387348/elon-musk-trump-president-billionaire-oligarchy
"
Trump announces his intention to spark a recession by imposing 25 percent across the board tariffs on our biggest trading partners
On “Paper: Inflation and the 2024 US Presidential Election”
Not really. As was demonstrated by numerous posts and this one, parties in charge of government in 2021 were getting pounded in elections. This has been true regardless of the ideological lien of the government.
If anything, Harris/Democrats loss is a lot more narrow than that of other incumbent parties.
I don't think it is a wild overstatement to state that doing everything right does not necessarily mean victory. It might just mean coming in a close second instead of a distant second.
But people find this unsatisfying and will fire up every cognitive defense they can to not recognize it.
"Ever tried. Ever failed. No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better."-Samuel Beckett
"
Those Green Lanterns won't light themselves!!
On “The Mandate That Wasn’t”
Gaetz withdraws his nomination: https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/11/21/us/trump-gaetz-news
"
If Republicans win, it is an overwhelming mandate. These are the rules of the media and the media is hardwired for Republicans
On “Open Mic for the week of 11/18/2024”
There is also the fact of this emergent pattern:
Hegseth: Multiple affairs and now information that he paid off a woman to dismiss a sexual assault charge.
Gaetz: Almost certainly paid a 17 year old for sex. We know he paid other young women for sex.
McMahon: Stood by her husband as he was credibly accused of sexual harassment and potentially rape.
Trump's first run and admin were basically revenge for Obama making fun of him.
Trump's third run and admin are going to be revenge at Biden and women especially E. Jean Carroll and anyone else who accused him of sexual assault. Apparently Hegseth interviewed three times in the first Trump term for Veteran's Affairs but was rejected because of his extramarital affairs.
"
The optimistic version is theoretically they will all squabble with each other, potentially be easily outsmarted, and not get much done or do much damage.
The pessimistic version is that incompetents and hacks can still do a hell of a lot of damage, they will demoralize enough long term civil servants, make them quit, and the positions will be filled with malicious actors and/or incompetents who will cause more damage, and if/when Democrats manage to regain control of the executive, it will be hard to rebuild it all.
Other pessimistic outlooks is that the Project 2025 staff wants these incompetents in charge because they are maximalist-bolsheviks.
TL/DR, don't assume clowns are harmless.
"
Dr. Oz was nominated to run the Office of Medicaid and Medicare
On “Paper: Inflation and the 2024 US Presidential Election”
So just like almost every other government in power in 2021, if anything Harris lost more narrowly than others. Trump is down to a plurality victory and the House barely budged.
On “How Republicans Can Save Trump’s Presidency”
Let's obey at the New York Times: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/18/style/jon-jones-trump-dance-bowers-bosa.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare
"
I don't know how swayable he actually is. Again, it feels like everyone thinks they can be Bugs Bunny to his Daffy Duck and I am not sure that is the case.
So far he has made three normalish nominations: Burgum at Interior, Rubio at State, and Stefanik as U.N. rep. Burgum is horrible in the way most Republicans would be horrible at Interior. Rubio and Stefanik are not exactly known for their backbones but on a substantive level, they are normal picks.
Everyone else is not and there is either scrapping the bottom of the barrel because everyone normal said no thank you and/or some flexes going on and showing of maximalist damage.
Trump is capable of learning and he is showing he doesn't want anyone with a spine to tell him no this time.
And Project 2025 is basically run by ideologues who are going for a shock and awe approach. Could it backfire and be less damaging that I fear? Yeah. Could it cause massive amounts of social, economic, and other damage even if administered incompletely? Also yes.
Trump is also a someone who is bent on revenge. Yes there were plenty of unhinged rants during his first admin at 4:00 a.m. but I see no reason to be dismissive.
Markwayne Mullin apparently went from discussing how they have evidence of Gaetz bragging about crushing up ED pills and chasing it with energy drinks to now stating he is okay with Trump's pick.
The only way to win with Trump is not to play. I think that has been proven numerous times but it still seems like a lot of people with pet issues have overrides that make it impossible for them to accept this fact.
So far Newsom and Pritzker and some other Western Democrats seem to be the only ones that get this.
The only way to win with Trump is not to play, otherwise you just become a dignity wraith who will be thrown under the bus eventually.
"
I agree partially. I think Biden was trapped in a paradox of liberal democracy but it is hard to state "Trump is an existential threat to democracy" for months and then turn around and pretend he is Mitt Romney without causing disillusion so I understand why people are upset.
I also think it is mainly up to blue states to resist Trump at this point and time.
But still, Democrats don't have to help and they don't have to pretend Trump is a normal politician that can be worked with despite any overriding issues or passions.
His choices for cabinet positions are absurd or worse. At the very least, no one is going to share intelligence with us for 4 years. Who knows what damage Kennedy and others will do?
I'm not stating anyone should state "to arms citizens" but I am shocked by the number of people who think it is possible to work with Trump and co. somehow and not getting burned.
But there seems to be something about having a pet cause or passion project that thinks "Wait a minute, there is something I can work with here" instead of realizing that we are dealing with Bolshevik-maximalists and/or cranks.
I pointed out a version below of someone who doesn't quite seem to get Hegseth's unsavory past is a feature, not a bug. There was another op-ed last week in the Times on a similar theme but for RFK Jr.
I take Trump and Co. seriously and literally and I don't see why this is wrong except people think it is cringe and not cool because it is not savvy or something.
"
During the first Trump term, I recall someone, I can't remember who, maybe Kevin Drum, maybe Matt Y noting that Trump treats all problems as if they are Manhattan Real Estate. I.e., everything really is a zero-sum game and he who acquires most and first wins. He doesn't comprehend things like Ricardo's Law of Comparative Advantage.
This seems to be true for everything but there is something about having a passion or pet issue that causes people to think "Wait a minute, maybe I can work with something here" instead of realizing that the only way to win with Trump is not to play."
Plus I think people think they can outsmart him like Bugs Bunny outsmarted Daffy Duck.
"
Not being blase about the craziness or thinking that there are ways to work with Trump would be a start. Not having wishful thinking either.
"
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/18/opinion/trump-cabinet-hegseth-defense-secretary.html
"Mr. Hegseth, the former Fox News host and veteran Mr. Trump nominated to lead the Department of Defense, lacks the necessary leadership experience. His antediluvian views on women in the armed forces, his advocacy for soldiers accused of war crimes and his past remarks on racial issues alone should be disqualifying in a confirmation process. (The news last week that he was investigated in 2017 after being accused of sexual assault won’t help his cause.) But his apparent disenchantment with American military engagement abroad and his skepticism of nation-building by armed forces and endless wars should not.
Mr. Hegseth, despite his heavy baggage, represents something that needs to be acknowledged: the deep bipartisan dissatisfaction with a military leadership that has presided over 20 years of failed wars and incalculable costs to America’s veterans and their families. If Mr. Trump could find a nominee for secretary of defense who holds similar views, but without his obvious shortcomings, his choice would be justified."
The heavy baggage is the point!!! It is the only point!! How hard is it for people to understand this?
"
Fair to an extent but everyone here seems to be treating this like a normal situation where Trump can be guided into being mitigated/salvaged or they are committing variants of the armchair pundit's fantasy and imputing what they would do as possible thinks Trump can do.
This is absurd. His very nominees should show you what kind of admin we are going to get and there is a weird copium that imagines the infighting and potential incompetence will stop the damage as opposed to producing the more Kafkaesque, unpredictable damage, unpredictable in terms of timing and extent. It will be completely erratic.
"
"That’s a really good question.
I think Trump has a great opportunity to reimagine government. I had to look up what the DoE even does. The DoD is a greater problem. It’s been documented that it’s many headed hydra would be impossible to rein in due to the outsized portion of our national economy that it occupies."
Why do people impute these things onto Trump as things he is capable of doing?
"
The absurdity is the point partially. Trump is trying to humiliate and show he is boss and seeing how much he can get away with without pushback. He is also surrounded by fanatics who want to go for a maximalist breakneck approach.
"
Trump apparently wants to do court martials: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/trump-transition-team-compiling-list-current-former-us-military-office-rcna180489
So tell me, how are Senate Republicans going to save his presidency?
"
I think he is also scrapping the bottom of the barrel. Qualified people are telling him no thank you. Reading between the lines of a TruthSocial rant, it looks like he asked Dimon to be Treasury Secretary and Dimon reufsed
"
It is amazing how much people still talk about this like we are still in a politics as normal situation. We very much aren't. Is it copium? An overriding psychological thought that appearing as a chicken little is the worst thing someone can be? "How uncool, someone saw me express a bit of anxiety?" Wanting to seem cool and savvy like you can outfox Trump and Co. like this is a Bugs Bunny cartoon and all you need to do is "It's duck season"
Trump and Co. are basically proceeding at maximalist speed like a bunch of Bolsheviks:
1. Almost every nomination he has given so far would be beyond the pale for any other President-elect? Tulsi for director of national intelligence? The one Russian media describes as "the girlfriend?" As far as I can tell, Rubio and Stefanik are the only in the realms of normal appointments so far.
2. We are already hearing gonzo plans for doing things like adjourning Congress using Article II, Section iii and/or declaring martial law for mass deportations.
There is a chance that Trump and Co. are getting ahead of their skies and things fall apart quickly. There is also a chance that we are flying blind in completely uncharted territory and things can get very chaotic and very bad. But the overwhelming sentiment of OT is that showing any alarm is the worst thing in the world apparently, so uncool.
Trump has already ritually humiliated RFK Jr by making him eat McDonald's. In the same photo, was Elon, Johnson, Trump, and Trump Jr. Who wasn't around Vance and Thune?
I wouldn't be surprised if they think they can get away with trying to adjourn the Senate.
*Comment archive for non-registered commenters assembled by email address as provided.