Open Mic for the week of 11/11/2024
Happy Veterans Day!
There’s a phenomenon where someone writes an essay about this or that but someone else wants to discuss something that has not yet made it to the front page.
This is unfair to everybody involved. It’s unfair to the guy who wrote the original essay because, presumably, he wants to talk about his original essay. It’s unfair to the guy who wants to talk about his link because it looks like he’s trying to change the subject. It’s unfair to the people who go to the comments to read up on the thoughts of the commentariat for the original essay and now we’re talking about some other guy’s links.
So!
The intention is to have a new one of these every week. If you want to talk about a link, post it here! Or, heck, use it as an open thread.
And, if it rolls off, we’ll make a new one. With a preamble just like this one.
AOC asked her followers who split their ballots either for Trump/her or Trump/downballot Dem to explain why and posted the replies.
A lot of “if you don’t represent *ME*, I’ll vote for the other guy!” sentiment floating around.
Which is good news for Dems, if we ever have another election, which is in doubt.Report
AOC asked people who voted for her and Trump why and got a lot of responses along the lines of “the stupid, it burns”
https://bsky.app/profile/tamaracharese.bsky.social/post/3laolnxooie2qReport
This is about the level of intelligence I expect from people who would vote for her.Report
Who is allowed to practice identity politics? https://donmoynihan.substack.com/p/who-is-allowed-to-practice-identity?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=492324&post_id=151431627
“Lets unpack this a bit. Dukakis was the son of immigrants who ran against a scion of an American political dynasty. Gore and Kerry lost to the next generation of that dynasty. Second-term Barack Obama defeated a hedge-fund leader whose father was a Governor. Clinton lost to a man who lived in a golden mansion.
To run for President certainly implies some elite status. But relative to who they were running against, the Democrats Dowd lists are not “avatars of elitism” by any stretch of the imagination, unless elite is drained of any signifier of political or economic power. Which of course is the point. The elites today are not the billionaire President or his plutocrat backers, but the adjunct faculty member who talks about Latinx people.”Report
“The elites today are not the billionaire President or his plutocrat backers, but the adjunct faculty member who talks about Latinx people.”
This, but unironically.Report
A flashback to us arguing about the African-American vote in 2016.
I was wrong then.
But 2024’s numbers are nuts.
Populism is back, baby!Report
Sixteen percent of black voters supported Donald Trump. Twice as many as 2020, which was itself higher than 2016.
And people still think that they can cry about racism and it’ll mean something.Report
Morning Joe is blaming the woke. Reverend Al has some sharp things to say.Report
James Carville is doing the whole “know-it-all, told-ya-so” thing.
Report
Good news/bad news.
The bad news is that they had a memorial for Sinwar and the martyrs at Columbia.
The good news is that there are a lot fewer of them than there were in the spring.Report
Decision Desk reports that Republicans have won the house.Report
Disney permanently closing the Hall of Presidents.Report
You should probably lower your current assessment of that site’s veracity.Report
Apparently, the HOP always closes after a change-the-president presidential election and reopens during the off season.
This year there is merely a debate over whether the time of the HOP has passed and whether it should be replaced with something involving the Muppets celebrating America.
I will hold my breath until more info comes out.Report
Back in the 70s the HoP was lowkey kind of a big deal — it’s one of my better memories of the various Disney trips — partly because it was air conditioned and gave you a 30 minute break — but it always kinda tied the Disney experience back to America past and present… it was very on-brand: Fort Wilderness, Frontierland, to Tomorrowland and Progress. Disney’s future was always an American future.Report
Seems like even before 45/47, it would’ve been a good idea for them to have instituted a 20-year waiting period to be added, after the partisan fires have had a chance to be smothered by the blankets of nostalgia.Report
There used to be a rule that the new ones wouldn’t talk. Just the old ones. Then, in 1992, they changed the rule.
Yet another part of Clinton’s legacy that acts as a millstone around our necks.Report
Yeah, I don’t recall Nixon, Ford, or Carter ever saying anything… seemed mostly the big Federalists/Anti-Federalists, Jackson, Lincoln, Grant, T.Roosevelt and FDR… not sure if Eisenhower said anything … oh, and probably Kennedy but that was last one.
Of course, this is from a 45 yr memory, so I’m likely leaving out some McKinley bon mots and what not.
But I don’t think there was any particular expectation that the latest one should be featured or say anything… would’ve been kinda weird, given that the new guys were still alive to say actual things.Report
Remember the FEMA “avoid houses with Trump signs” thing?
Well, Marn’i Washington argues that this was not isolated and it happened in North Carolina too.Report
Well it sure looks like Putin has Compromising materials on Trump and also might have done unspecified stuff during the 2024 election: https://newrepublic.com/post/188284/vladimir-putin-donald-trump-election-obligations
“To achieve success in the election, Donald Trump relied on certain forces to which he has corresponding obligations,” [ Presidential aide] Nikolay Patrushev told the business daily Kommersant in response to a question about whether the outcome of the presidential election would bode well for Russia. “As a responsible person, he will be obliged to fulfill them.”Report
Our only hope is that DJT tries to stiff those whom he owes, as he has reliably done his entire career; though if he follows his usual M.O., for his own sake he probably should avoid staying in high-rises that boast beautiful views from their lofty windows.Report
Russian attacks the integrity of our institutions via these sorts of info grams. They had another where a Immigrant was bragging on how many times he’ll vote.Report
Oh, sure, I trust the Russian government about as far as I can throw it out a window too; in that respect if no others (though it seems to me there have been sufficient reports of smoke, for fire to remain a distinct possibility), they and he are peas in a pod.
– Jared Harris as Valery Legasov in HBO’s ChernobylReport
“And that relationship appears to be ongoing. On Wednesday, veteran journalist Bob Woodward revealed that he had spoken about the unusual relationship between Trump and Putin several months ago with Trump’s former Director of National Intelligence Dan Coats.
“It’s so close, it seems like it might be blackmail,” Coats said, according to Woodward.
Woodward also recounted a separate conversation he had with CIA Director Bill Burns, who reportedly emphasized that “Putin manipulates” and is “professionally trained” to do so. According to Woodward, Burns believed that Putin has “got a plan” to repeat what he did during the forty-fifth presidential administration by “playing Trump.””
Smoke, fire, etc.Report
It is a lot easier to believe Trump can be played than it is to believe that Trump is being blackmailed.
Trump is immune to sexual blackmail because he wouldn’t care and his real life has been so interesting. Finding out that he’s had yet another affair with yet another East European model is already well within expectations.
Trump is also pretty much immune to money blackmail because he’d just claim that it was normal business dealings with Russia and/or loans (btw, he has taken Russian loans). It’d be easy for him to say “Fish You, sanctions say you don’t get paid” so that’s probably already happened.
Thankfully none of his attempts at creating hotels in Russia have been successful so his empire can’t be held hostage.Report
I think Trump can be played quite easily by a Putin, a KGB man who understands how to work assets. A conman’s easiest mark is someone whose ego can be stroked and greed can be stoked into believing they’re getting something for nothing; getting one over on others. “You can’t cheat an honest man” and all.
I think Trump’s a Putin pushover here for obvious reasons.Report
Maybe. Trump is seriously erratic and loves to screw people while they’re down if it’s in his interest. Putin’s interests aren’t aligned with ours.
Having said that, Trump’s leaked “peace proposal” is a disaster.Report
Putin’s interests aren’t aligned with ours.
Nor, I’d argue, are Trump’s. They are aligned as always with himself. And Trump thinks he’s a gangster (and he is); but comparatively-speaking, he’s up against a real one.Report
Dude, it was total anti-intresting when FDR was up to his elbows in Russian infiltration.
Now that it goes against the will of the termites in the institutions, it’s BIG NEWS.
If you really want to kneecap NATO and the Atlantic Council, bring Russia into NATO like we should have done 20 years agoReport
Giving Russia a veto over our defense moves 20 years ago would have resulted in a real problem now. Russia feeling it has no choice but invade about 20 different countries has nothing to do with Nato (witness how they’ve treated their non-Nato neighbors).Report
The escalation of Ukraine was because of fears over Ukraine joining NATO. If Russia was a member, there would be no escalation over that, at least.
In practice nobody Vetos our defense moves, other than the termites. Why wasn’t air cover used in the Bay of Pigs?Report
The escalation of Ukraine was because of fears over Ukraine joining NATO.
This is propaganda. Russia needed to go to war with Ukraine because it needs territorial choke points.
Russia “needs” those choke points because it’s so big and it’s land is so poor that it can’t possibly defend it’s borders if it doesn’t have them. There’s nothing to stop an invasion and the lack of transportation prevents their army from easily responding.
A good example is how the Ukraine was able to invade Russia just recently even though both sides are at war so in theory the Russian army is prepared. The borders are just too big.
Fighting for those choke points explains the 9(?) wars that Russia has had since the USSR fell. Many of them with non-Nato countries. This issue predates Putin. Demographics also plays a role. If they were going to invade then it needed to be soon because of their falling population.Report
OT still disappearing comments. Never changes.Report
You were caught in the spam filter.Report
Just an informational note… Like most blog platforms, WordPress’s built-in spam filter is a black box. Or special sauce if you prefer that analogy. They think their algorithm is superior and don’t want to reveal the inner workings. No way to determine why WP decided the comment was spam.Report
I think it is more what Kompromat will be released into mediaReport
What would releasing any notional Kompromat do at this point? Make him unelectable to the highest office in the land? Cause him to be investigated, prosecuted and convicted in a US court of law? Cause him to be impeached, again?
The blackmail-leverage-possibilities seem to be rather limited, if we look at recent history.
“Do our bidding, or we will tell America what a slimeball you are.”
“Neener neener neener; believe me, THEY ALREADY KNOW AND DO NOT CARE, so do your worst, Ivan.”Report
I never thought the Leopards would eat my face: https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/35e20d57ba367eac41506b058cf7c800884e37895139209eb3464a5e57e7b0f8.jpgReport
The good people in Dearborn fished around and found out. Now enormity of what they have done is dawning on them. Next up will be the Latino men and women that voted for Trump.Report
I don’t think you understand how that overused cliche works. Buyer’s remorse may well come, but it’s too early for that. This is a Harris voter predicting that Trump voters will regret it later, not a Trump voter already regretting it.Report
So, like, who is now the leader of the Democrats?
It’s not Pelosi, Schumer, Biden, or Harris.
Not really asking “who is the 2028 presumptive frontrunner!” (though that’s a fun question too), but just “who’s at the wheel?”
I don’t think it’s Obama and I don’t think it’s Clinton.
AOC? Fetterman?Report
Fetterman wouldn’t be the worst choice. Shapiro?Report
I see Shapiro as a presumptive nominee so he might be a good choice.
Unless the presumptive nominee is Newsom but he will have an uphill battle based on nothing but “California” alone and that’s without getting into the whole “more of a vampire than werewolf” thing that he has going on at a time that werewolves are in.Report
There are a bunch of Dem governors of red states. It seems to me that the party ought to be looking hard at them.
Really, DJT is such a confounding factor in American politics. Does MAGA survive him?Report
I’m in agreement. Best thing to do is to start looking to D governors of states that are red or competitive. Big pivot probably out to be away from legislators in general.Report
It probably does a sit’s the logical outgrowth of the 50 plus year march by the GOP toward permanent minority party rule. You need a rabid base to achieve and maintain that sort of thing.Report
With a trifecta in DC, it may be time for the governors. Newsom and Inslee look to be preparing to take on the Trump administration. Polis in Colorado has strong Democratic majorities in both legislative chambers, so also in a position to fight. Shapiro can’t attempt the same things because the Republicans retained control of the Pennsylvania state senate. Whitmer in Michigan will have the same problem because Republicans won the house there. Any others come to mind?Report
I don’t know that “a position to fight” is as necessary as “a sufficiently poised posture”. Achievements don’t need to be great so long as you’re sufficiently charismatic and can speak sufficiently well (see, for example, Fetterman and AOC).
You’ll always have a handful of people saying something like “Fetterman is the most influential senator to sit in that chamber since Lyndon Johnson!” and you might disagree, you might even have evidence otherwise… but is it really worth your time to argue against the position? Why would you want to argue against that position right before an important election? And so on.
As such: Whitmer is not a particularly good pick because she wanders into “tone deaf” and I think she’s still vulnerable on covid stuff that hasn’t fully been processed by the electorate.
Inslee might be good, Polis might be good. Neither come from a “real” state. Which, you’d think, would be a point in their favor but I can never tell what’s going to be fashionable tomorrow. Shapiro is sharp as a tack and I think he might be good if only because (I understand) he turned down the VP slot before it was given to Walz.
So he has a pair of eyes that are smaller than his stomach and that’s deadly (plus he comes from one of the real states).
A for-real knock down, drag-out brawl of a primary might be a good way to figure some of this stuff out.
Which means we won’t even be able to start guessing about the primary until 2026.
But none of the poppies seem to be interested in getting taller in the short term.
Well, Fetterman, AOC, and Newsom, I guess.Report
You’ll always have a handful of people saying something like “Fetterman is the most influential senator to sit in that chamber since Lyndon Johnson!”
I’ll take three — two if one of them is someone people have actually heard of.Report
I wasn’t arguing that as a criticism of Fetterman.
I was arguing that as a reason that the fact that he is relatively unseasoned is no hindrance.
He fights!Report
I think Fetterman and Obama give the lesson, one the Democratic nominees in 2016 and 2024 did not heed: if you want to win as a Democrat, you have to mobilize progressives. I’m not saying you have to cater to them 100%, but you have to make sure they show up not on election day, but for the months prior to it. This pushed Obama to the win, particularly in the ’08 primary and general, and pushed Fetterman to the win in his only election to the senate. Even Biden benefitted from a lesser progressive mobilization in ’20, both because they hated Trump and because he tacked left during his campaign (and to a lesser extent during his first year or so in office).
Feterman has a problem, though: he may, currently, be the most hated non-Republican among progressives. Hell, he may be more hated than a good portion of Republicans. Having him in a position of high visibility within the party, whether as a DNC chair or minority whatever, or worse, as a presidential nominee, pretty much guarantees a lack of progressive enthusiasm. The Dems have twice shown they can’t win by courting the center/moderate right while pretty much ignoring the liberal left; Fetterman is a good way to prove that a third time.Report
I might take a minorly different tack.
Harris really suffered from the straddle.
Israel/Palestine makes for a good example. What did Harris think about Israel/Palestine?
Both sides make really good points!
What does Fetterman think about Israel/Palestine?
“You shouldn’t be protesting me, you should be protesting Hamas.”
Revelation 3:16 covers this.Report
The bit about Harris criticizing Biden on busing, when in fact she had opposed busing, or her saying she was for Medicare for All, and then saying, “Actually I just didn’t understand the question,” definitely distinguishes her from Fetterman, a person who has left no doubt about his support for genocide.
This may not seem like a big deal now, but perhaps no one in the last 20 years has made progressive liberals feel more betrayed than Fetterman, so they definitely won’t show up for him again.Report
I didn’t take it as a criticism of Fetterman. I took it as a plain statement that someone somewhere was saying something obviously stupid about Fetterman and asking who said it.
Apparently, nobody.Report
No, I wasn’t saying that someone had said it.
I was saying that if Fetterman got pushed, someone would start saying it.
If you want evidence, I can only point you to people saying stuff like “Biden is the most transformative president since FDR” or stuff like that.Report
If you say that’s what you meant to say, then I assume that’s what you meant to say. English be hard.Report
“Achievements don’t need to be great so long as you’re sufficiently charismatic and can speak sufficiently well”
oh god it’s gonna be NewsomeReport
So is Pritzker in Illinois. Inslee is out in 2025. The next governor of Washington is Bob Fergusson, the current A.G. of the stateReport
Names being kicked around for DNC Chair:
Stacey Abrams
Ken Martin (Minnesota State Party Chair)
Phil Murphy (NJ Governor)
Sherrod Brown
I told Trumwill on twitter:
If I hated the democrats, I would have them nominate Abrams and then, every time her name was brought up, I would engineer a discussion about how her statements about her election were substantially different than Donald Trump’s.
Every time.
Every time.Report
Come on…Jared Polis!Report
I love me some Jared Polis and I think he’d do well on the national stage but I don’t know that he’d get past the internal prejudices of the party. (Remember those Udall guys? I worry that Polis would run smack dab into the same brick wall that they did.)Report
David Axlerod suggests a name that can bring *ALL* of us together: Rahm Emmanuel.Report
Welp, Trump’s advisors are apparently considering a warrior board in order to demote insufficiently loyal officers: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/live/2024/nov/12/donald-trump-marco-rubio-juan-merchan-stormy-daniels-us-politics-liveReport
The Wrap reports: LA Times Owner to Create a New Editorial Board in Light of Trump Presidency – and ‘The Newsroom Is Pissed’.
The phrase “fair and balanced” is used.Report
“The big success of the US right over the last decade or so, helped by a cadre of centrists, is convincing a lot of people that the Democratic Party is whoever you think is the most radical, most annoying person on the internet. Therefore, voting Republican is a vote against them.” — Nicholas Grossman
Nineteen-year-old pro-Palestinian protestors lost BIG TIME last week! There will be no unpleasant side effects from that loss.Report
On that note, something to chew on:
Making video games suck was a massive, *MASSIVE* mistake.Report
I’m so relieved to see that the terrible behavior of a group of young men is yet again clearly the fault of women.Report
“Fault”? I don’t understand how you’re using the word.
I will say that if you did not want them to see political activity as more fun than video games, you should have supported video games being more fun than political activity.
And, golly, I can’t even imagine how good Concord would have had to have been top all of this.
It’ll take a decade and a half to come up with something as good as Skyrim was.Report
I went to high school with Nick Grossman. He was a year below me and my brother. He is absolutely correct on this. Nutpicking works a lot better for the right than it does the liberal-left spectrum as a political strategy. This was true before the Internet but the Internet makes it worse. I have no idea how to combat this but a lot of people are going to learn that they played a very stupid game and are about to win some very stupid prizes.Report
The Left has more groups and more ways for them to be at odds. For example the Jews and the Arabs are both Blue and they have opposite ideas on how to deal with the current war in Gaza.
Team Blue’s job is to put together a group that is willing to vote together. Since the Arabs decided anything less than preventing Israel from defending itself was “genocide”, the calculation should have been that Blue can’t depend on that vote and they need to get others.
That implies doing good things for the “pocketbook” voters since that’s the biggest group.
As for “nutpicking”, the problem implies there should be fewer ideological purity tests and not more. This flies in the face of the “everyone who doesn’t agree with me is an Evil Na.zi” thinking. IMHO Blue would benefit from being more tolerant of ideological diversity.Report
That’s the thing with the Omnicause. You have to be on board with *ALL* of it.
Boston’s Seth Moulton made a controversial statement last week where he tackled the whole mtf transgender high school sports thing and he said that he wouldn’t be comfortable with his daughters being “run over” on the field by a transgender competitor and he unhelpfully added “as a Democrat, I’m supposed to be afraid to say that.”
Welp, he’s getting called a Nazi Collaborator.
The chair of the Tufts political science department, David Art, came out and said that he wasn’t going to be having any of his students reaching out to Moulton’s office.
Tufts Administration *IMMEDIATELY* started yelling something to the effect of “DAVID ART DOES NOT SPEAK FOR TUFTS!!!! WE HAVE REACHED OUT TO SCOTT MOULTON’S OFFICE AND TOLD HIM THAT WE’RE STILL GOING TO BE WORKING WITH HIM!!!!!!”
I think that the Omnicause is bad. People should be allowed to agree with only 90% of the Omnicause. Only 80% of it. That should be okay.
But no. The Omnicause uber alles.
They’re planning on primarying Moulton.Report
Welp, he’s getting called a Na.zi Collaborator.
Amusement. LOL.
And there you go. He’s in the way of what Blue wants to do, ergo he’s a Na.zi.Report
In October 1938, Boston’s Ebenezer Moulton made a controversial statement where he tackled the whole Jewish domination of the German professions thing and said that if the German people want to be seen by German doctors, then that’s an understandable desire.
Welp, he got called a Nazi Sympathizer. So much for the Tolerant Left.Report
Sounds just like Seth Moulton, when you think about it.Report
Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy are going to be co-head of a not yet created “Department” of Government Efficiency.
Yes, DOGE like the meme coin or like the ruler of Venice. Really, it is an advisory committee probably.Report
I for one am excited about this. The comedic subplots were by far the best part of the last Trump administration.Report
On the one hand, obviously.
On the other hand, if Trump seriously is going after Dept Ed (for example)… I wouldn’t discount the ‘comedic effect’ of having Musk/Vivek with inside access to Ed meetings/comms etc. and having the teams to expose (selectively, of course) the reasons the GenPub would want to see Ed dispersed.
Like most things, it comes down to execution; and based on the last go-round, I’m not particularly impressed by Trump’s ability to execute… but this time is new.Report
Yea there’s a ‘rolling of the dice’ aspect to these things you get with Trump. Same thing applies to Hegseth, as you note below.
He picks these gimmicky people whose ability to actually perform is a completely open question. If I had to pick a Trump 1 situation where that went relatively well it was Betsy DeVos. He picked her almost certainly because all of the right people hate her, and not for any other reason. Luckily for him, agree with her policy stances or not, she turned out to be at least a vaguely serious enough person capable of executing the little policy turns in a rightward direction one would expect from a conservative administration.
Yet you had all these other situations where people made a lot of noise but were ineffectual at actually running things, to say nothing of the slow, deliberate turning of the administrative state in a desired direction.
I have a hard time believing Musk lasts more than 6 months in any role without a (probably stupid, public, ugly, and comical) falling out of some kind with Trump. It’s also probable IMO that the high water mark of Ramaswamy’s achievements will be to embarrass some person or institution more than he ends up embarrassing himself. But I also bet there will be someone we aren’t expecting that turns out to he surprisingly effective, who most likely resigns after the midterms in an attempt to save some shreds of dignity from Trump’s chaos.Report
Agree on DeVos — she did a lot of things that really helped education beyond just the Public Schools — especially during Covid.
Also agree that I’d take the ‘under’ on pretty much all of his picks and initiatives if I had to bet on them.
Then again, I’d probably lose on some of those ‘under’ picks, but I’m not entirely sure which ones.Report
A Fox News Host is going to be our next Secretary of Defense. Governor Dog Killer is the Secretary of DHS. Rubio at state is really bad but at least still in the normal parameters. Are you not entertained?Report
Lloyd Austin walked off of his job and had a medical emergency and didn’t tell anyone.
The conspiracy theory is that he figured he could get away with this because he knew about Joe Biden’s medical status and if they made a big deal about him, he’d make a big deal about Biden.
The Fox News Host happens to have a military history and it’s one where he’s not in bed with the MIC.Report
Never heard of the Hegseth guy.
The first part of his ‘Wikipedia CV’ reminds you of that really interesting Special Teams Coach that might just make a good head coach some day. Some team might take a gamble on him and win/lose bigly.
The second part of his ‘Wikipedia CV’ reminds you of the Special Teams Coach who was too good looking to waste his time learning what it would take to become a good head coach some day, so he went into broadcasting.
DoD is tough; not sure I’d gamble on a pick like this… he was rumored for Veterans Affairs last time — that seems about right.Report
The main thing that The Establishment has going for it is that it understands that tactics don’t matter and strategy doesn’t matter if you have logistics nailed down quite flat.
Hegseth has no concept of logistics.
That said, he *MIGHT* be good at tactics/strategy and he’s going up against a system that has forgotten that those are good things too.Report
Eh, some depts. you might be able to ‘shake-up’ a bit with some fresh ideas and energy. I seriously doubt DoD is one of them (that’s polite for impossible). Even the ones that might be subject to ‘revitalization’ are not going to vitalize all that much in a 1-4 yr horizon. Civil Service reform is a generational project.
Plus, it depends on what the actual ‘strategery’ here is… I haven’t seen anything about the grand plan for DoD yet — just the pick. Is there a grand strategy?Report
And now you have. I’d avoid shaking hands with him.Report
“At Eton they taught us to wash our hands after using the toilet”
“At Harrow they taught us not to piss on our hands”Report
Maybe he’s smarter than he appears here but I’m not loving a guy who says “germs aren’t real because I can’t see them” for USA SecDef.Report
dude… I clicked on the link:
“Mr Hegseth later told USA Today that his remarks were intended to be a joke.
“We live in a society where people walk around with bottles of Purell (a hand sanitiser) in their pockets, and they sanitise 19,000 times a day as if that’s going to save their life,” he said.
“I take care of myself and all that, but I don’t obsess over everything all the time.”Report
We are clearly going through a real bout of anti-science thinking here in 21st C USA, , so I think people can be forgiven for not recognizing his “joke” right off the bat; but yes, let’s all hope he was kidding. Ha ha! What a card!Report
Eh, there’s a pretty widely known Scientific hypothesis (esp in Farm/Organic circles) that possibly some of our autoimmune (and other) issues come from an excessive sanitation ‘problem’. That’s probably why he mentions ‘inoculating himself’ and why having dirty hands is a sign of health — metaphorically and scientifically. Generally, though, you still avoid pissing on your hands.
Personally I wouldn’t shake his hand because after three marriages and however many affairs, I doubt he’s a trustworthy guy.
—
“Exposure to environmental microbes, including those found in soil, plays a significant role in the development and regulation of the human immune system. This concept is central to the “hygiene hypothesis,” which suggests that reduced exposure to diverse microorganisms may contribute to the rise in allergic and autoimmune diseases.”
https://www.immunology.theclinics.com/article/S0889-8561(05)00013-5/abstract
https://bmcmedicine.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12916-015-0306-7
https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/immunology/articles/10.3389/fimmu.2020.615192/fullReport
Yes, I am aware of all this and you are correct that over-“cleanliness” is implicated in various modern problems – increased allergies in children, the rise of antibiotic-resistant bacteria, etc.
And had he said that originally, no one would have even taken notice, to where he had to clarify what he (hopefully) actually meant.
But what he said originally was, “I never wash my hands and germs aren’t real because I can’t see them” and in our current anti-vax, raw-milk-drinking era I think it’s obvious why people reacted as they did.
And unfortunately too many people have said too many stupid and hateful things and then tried to handwave them away as a joke that it’s become much harder to extend any benefit of the doubt to members of a party (and now, Admin) that have continually and willfully encouraged and celebrated scientific ignorance.Report
He said this on Fox and Friends, and the other hosts were laughing — it was just ripped out of context. Facetious humor like this rarely survives a political border crossing in either direction.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZX-tRTD1lqUReport
Fair enough. But I think my point about the dangers of relentlessly promoting an anti-scientific, pro-ignorance stance still stands.
People are a lot more prone to extend benefit of the doubt and make charitable readings and assume there must be some kind of nuance being left out of taken-from-context soundbites like this, but [gestures around]Report
President Nixon has some dry observations:
Report
♫ And you knew who you were then
Girls were girls and men were men
Mister we could use a man like Richard Nixon again ♫Report
a href=”https://www.dissentmagazine.org/”>Dissent has some good post-mortems, the best of which is probably Exit Right:
Though it lays most of the blame on Biden’s (and the Democratic Party generally’s) feet.Report
Well I messed that html up. Sorry about that.Report
Don’t let it happen again!Report
Probably part of the whole anti-science thing discussed above.Report
Axios has an article: Money tensions rise between Harris’ team and DNC.
I don’t bring it up because I want you to read about the money drama. I bring it up because of this part in the middle:
God only knows whether this footage will eventually be turned into a fun 60/90/120 minute documentary.
But it might be one of the things that might actually be worth paying for out of all of the silliness that also appears on the list.Report
I’m sure the documentary will show a campaign bursting with vibes.Report
I just really want to know what is going on in the headspace of the people who think that taking a more anti-Israel stance or really a harder left stance would be a great political winning message. They seem to be able to hold two simultaneously contradictory thoughts in their heads at the same time. One is that America is an imperialist white supremacist misogynist nation that voted for Trump because he represents that. The other is that there is a real yearning for hard left politics in the United States. Both these things can’t be true.Report
Everyone I know thinks the same way I do ergo I’m correct.
From the Leftist media I watch, the thinking seems to be there is no difference between Trump and Harris/Biden for Gaza. They don’t expect Trump to be better but since Biden isn’t willing to stop a “genocide” it can’t get any worse.
The problem is they’ve redefined “genocide” to mean “brutal war”. There are more births than deaths in Gaza. We’ve been hearing how they’re days away from mass starvation for the last 9 months and we’re still days away.
Biden was Jimmy Cricket. Trump thinks Israel isn’t being forceful enough.Report
The UN Convention Against Genocide is broadly written to the point of uselessness. It defines the inflicting of serious physical or mental harm as genocide. That would technically mean the US intervention against Serbia during the Balkan Wars was genocide and you really need to be out there to say that with a straight face. I get why the convention was written this way. They didn’t want war criminals to have wiggle room at trial but most people would not call brutal war a genocide. This is why the Left is both technically correct under the convention definition but also falling flat on the face with people who don’t agree with them because most people define genocide more narrowly than the UN convention.
A commentator on the other blog also noted that the Left doesn’t just consider liberal support for Israel wrong, they consider it illegitimate. Liberal Pro-Israel people tend to see the Pro-Palestinian Left as wrong but not that their beliefs are so bad to have that they must not even be expressed or that we can’t see how somebody would come to those conclusions. The Left has the same sort of treatment of the Jews as an illegitimate minority. This is why books like David Baddiel’s Jews Don’t Count rang a chord with Jews everywhere.Report
Rick Scott will *NOT* be the next Senate Majority Leader. He’s out on the first ballot.
It’ll be Thune or Cornyn.Report
It’s Thune.
MAGA vs. The Institution Part II: Electic Boogaloo.Report
This is the most succinct distinction between Lawful Evil and Chaotic Evil possible using current politics:
https://bsky.app/profile/jacobtlevy.bsky.social/post/3latdcloizs2jReport
“Abolish” is a slogan. In practice Trump will do what he did last time, i.e. tell the administrative state that for every new rule they create they have to get rid of two.Report
Yeesh I go away to sea for a week and change and the whole country goes to pot- sorry all.Report
Welcome back!Report
OK, everyone, you can stop all the finger-pointing and scapegoating — the true guilty party has finally confessed and apologized!Report
Mea maxima culpa .Report
Smooth move, Ex-Lax!
(Hiya North! Did you consider just taking to the sea permanently?)Report
Might I suggest.
https://qz.com/cruise-4-year-journey-escape-trump-villa-vie-odyssey-1851694799Report
At this point I’d consider shipping out on HMS Terror or Erebus.Report
Naw, I was sad but, unlike in 2016, I paid close enough mind to the polls to recognize that a Trump victory or even a wide but shallow victory like what he brought home was a very real possibility. Also, frankly, after a week on a boat, even a luxurious boat, one pines for home.Report
I had resigned myself to an EC victory – the game is the game – but losing the popular vote hurt.Report
It’s funny because it’s true:
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/c0bacbfe096542f30180d982d3291191e2a81f9ef4b6c6140c788229b4dbc928.jpgReport
There’s no one less liberal than a leftist.Report
Matt Gaetz is Trump’s nominee for Attorney GeneralReport
Now that is funny stuff.Report
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/11/13/trump-taps-rep-matt-gaetz-as-attorney-general.htmlReport
Is Gaetz more interested in the Justice Department than the Justice Department is interested in Gaetz?Report
Ok, that’s batsh*t insane.Report
As tests for John Thune go… this is a pretty good one.Report
My understanding is that like McConnell before him, Thune is not in on the joke. Of course Trump is a lot more powerful as a figure than he was last go round. Maybe someone more familiar with the inner dynamics of the right can give us a prediction on how this is likely to go.Report
The right is opaque to me.
But the “Left vs. Populist” thing went in a somewhat surprising direction.
I heard someone say that the Republicans are not a party as much as they are a dozen special interest groups in a trenchcoat.
So I don’t know if this will be a “Right vs. Populist” thing or a “Special Interests vs. Populist” thing.
I suspect that fans of the status quo ought hope for the latter.Report
I don’t know… my baseline assumption is the Senate will defer to the President’s picks.
Just don’t know R Senate dynamics well enough to know strong his 29 votes are. We’ll see if there’s now a whisper campaign to sabotage Gaetz on the right to give him cover to push back to Pres. I assume no; but that would happen first – not Thune making some Olympic stand on Day 1.
But seriously, Gaetz?Report
Kafka was supposed to be kind of funny too!Report
I suppose you are in an “are you not entertained? kind of moodReport
Gotta laugh to keep from crying.
Also my hope for the Trump administration is that he renders himself ineffectual by doing things like… nominating Matt Gaetz to be US AG. Obviously TBD but If it creates rifts with the handful of remaining GOP legislators from the before times then even better.
It’s going to suck no matter what but I’d rather it sucks in the way that the federal government is chaotic and poorly led than in the way where a GOP trifecta works in lockstep to enacted a bunch of hard to undo policy.Report
[heavy sigh]Report
Hell, even I think this one is crazy.Report
My first reaction: Is he even a lawyer? Turns out yes, he is.
So my second reaction: Has he ever run anything more complex than his own Congressional office? No, he has not.
My third reaction: What’s his experience with the criminal justice system? Well, he was “a person of interest” in several interstate sex crime allegations. Never amounted to a prosecution, though.Report
I too found out he has a JD today.Report
That’s not entirely true. He also skated on a DUI!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Matt_Gaetz#Legal_issuesReport
Matt Gaetz has resigned from Congress.
Speaker Johnson: “That caught us by surprise a little bit, but I asked him what the reasoning was and he said, ‘Well, you can’t have too many absences.'”
He has burned his boats.
Punchbowl News is reporting:
I wonder if they’ll be leaked anyway.Report
It would be very amusing if this goes down like Benioff and Weiss quiet-quitting the last season of Game Of Thrones so they could get a jump on their Disney Star Wars series, and then having that Star Wars series get cancelled because Game Of Thrones bombed.Report
Ed Whelan, a former Scalia Clerk and no one’s idea of a liberal is apparently hearing through the grapevine that there is apparently a bonkers plan for Trump to get these appointments through on recess by adjourning Congress using Article II, Section 3. Article II, Section 3 states:
“He shall from time to time give to the Congress Information of the State of the Union, and recommend to their Consideration such Measures as he shall judge necessary and expedient; he may, on extraordinary Occasions, convene both Houses, or either of them, and in Case of Disagreement between them, with Respect to the Time of Adjournment, he may adjourn them to such Time as he shall think proper; he shall receive Ambassadors and other public Ministers; he shall take Care that the Laws be faithfully executed, and shall Commission all the Officers of the United States.”
I suppose it would be pretty darkly funny in a lolsob grim way if Trump decides to go Charles I on Congress and tell them they are not needed.Report
The Senate will no longer be of any concern to us. I’ve just received word that President Trump has dissolved the council permanently. The last remnants of the old system of government have been swept away.Report
If Trump were to actually do this, we would be in s**t hits the fan territory but we seem to be getting closer and close to it every day.Report
Some of us are already there, but do carry on.Report
The Financial Times has a story that talks about the Harris decision to not go on Joe Rogan.
Here’s the good stuff:
Now, it strikes me that there are two ways to read this:
1) Face value. They’re telling the truth, more or less.
2) Conspiracy Theory. There is another reason and the other reason is worse than the Face Value one.
I’m going to meditate on the second one… it could be something as simple as “it’s not *MY* fault! It’s the dang millennials!” and Palmieri is trying to get hired next time (older, wiser). The way to bet, I think, is the whole “Harris is not very good at this” thing and Joe Rogan would have exposed the hell out of that. And you can’t, like, *ADMIT* that… so it’s the fault of the dang staffers… who, we promise, we won’t listen to next time.Report
Her longest interview was one hour with Howard Stern… but at least half that was talking about her rise to glory and the other half softball questions. In practice that might have been 15 minutes. So the same as her others.
I think it’s very possible her people didn’t want to let her out of the bunker for three hours and do the real deal. She’d go with a platitude, he’d ask a follow up question, she’d not have an answer. Joe was viewed (correctly) as “not one of their people” so that can’t work.
Three hours of word salad would have been as bad as Biden’s debate.Report
Eh I’m not sure it would have been worse than her decision not to go. Doesn’t he regularly have guests on that talk about UFOs and the paranormal and that sort of thing?Report
Those people can talk at length!Report
The issue isn’t that you and I think she should have gone. The issue is that the people who were professionally managing her thought she wasn’t up to it.
And not just, “Joe Rogan is a bad idea”. It seemed to have been, “interviews are a bad idea and long serious(?) interviews are a massively bad idea”. Even in a toss up election where she’s losing ground.
If we assume the people professionally managing her understood their jobs and were correct, then the implication is she was that bad at interviews.Report
What about long unserious interviews?
Obviously we’re all still in the stage of Monday morning quarterbacking, and in light of how 2016 went I’d expect we will be doing that for the next 4 years and maybe beyond. But even if we assume ‘shoot the sh*t in front of millions of potentially undecideds’ is beyond her capabilities the professional recommendation is still to try it anyway. Hail Mary’s are low percentage plays attempted in games almost certainly already lost and yet you still do it when called for by the circumstances. If her professional staff really made the call based on that rationale none of them should ever work in politics again.Report
Three hours of word salad wasn’t going to convince anyone that she’s fit to be President.
Her lack of long interviews was clearly a chosen tactic. The only way that makes sense is the more we know the less she was likely to win.Report
Trump serves up 10 full bowls of word salad before breakfast every day. Even if I concede for the sake of argument that Harris is not a very poised speaker or debater, I still am very confused about how her brand of word salad was a dealbreaker in terms of Presidental fitness when I look at the known, long-established and now-elected alternative.
“It is better to remain silent and be thought a fool, than open your mouth and remove all doubt”; Trump’s mouth has been wide open for years, and yet.Report
This sort of double standard between what we expect of Republican vs Democratic political candidates in terms of articulateness and coherence dates back long before Trump. Liberals are expected to speak in complete sentences and paragraphs, while Republicans can speak in prehistoric grunts and fart sounds.
What’s amazing is that after every election cycle, a bunch of liberal journalists accuse Democrats of losing because they speak in paragraphs while the people only have the ability to comprehend grunts and fart sounds. Hell, this was the primary narrative of the 2000 election aftermath (well, after hanging chads, at least).Report
I think that’s a truism among us political junkie types but I’m not sure it is to the electorate. I just watched the first 15 or 20 minutes of the Vance interview with Rogan that Jaybird embedded. Now I think Vance is insufferable, a deeply cynical person, and just kind of a jackass.
But he doesn’t come off prehistoric at all and certainly not stupid. In the first bit of that interview he’s affable, relatable, even a bit thoughtful. This was the first time I’ve ever listened to Rogan and Vance isn’t some masterful politician. But anyone that can’t match that performance probably shouldn’t be in politics period.Report
Oh, to be clear, I just mean among political junkies, of which everyone in this thread is by definition.
And Vance definitely isn’t prehistoric. He’s awkward, but in the way that rich people and grad students (who are mostly rich people, to be fair) are awkward.Report
Harris wasn’t answering questions in paragraphs. Harris was avoiding answering questions by word salad.
Team Red had fun playing quotes of the full question and full answer.
Note “avoiding answering questions” is the best spin possible.
The alternatives are she didn’t know the answers; or couldn’t remember what her handlers told her to say but knew her own answers would be unacceptable.Report
Yeah, that’s my point, she’s expected to, while Trump can do the “weave” or whatever he calls losing his train of thought mid-sentence.Report
If the claim here is she’s really as demented as Trump but the media treats her more harshly, then…
1) This is really bad for her on the face of it.
2) The media was largely on her side proclaiming how super competent she is.
That last is the big problem. Trump was genuine, Harris was not.
Trump runs as a vulgar old man and makes it work. He likes telling exaggerated big fish stories and we make allowances because he’s been doing it for decades.
Harris was trying to run as a super competent advisor to the President. That’s a fine role. However to make that work she needed to be able to answer basic questions that she either couldn’t or wouldn’t.
Harris was artificial. The answer to most questions was babble while she tried to remember what the answer was supposed to be. It showed that she wasn’t saying what she really thought.Report
I haven’t seen Trump’s Rogan interview but my brother said although Trump wandered around a lot he did actually answer questions.Report
I listen to Rogan and knowing what we know about Kamala’s chops, it’s hard to imagine a scenario where going on the program would have helped her. Even if they cut it short, that would be a bad outcome.
They ended up sending Fetterman, and that wasn’t great.
They should have sent Mayor Pete. He’s someone who could have done very well, imo.Report
OH CRAP! WE ARE WALKING THIS BABY BACK ALREADY!!!!
Report
My bullshit meter is bouncing against the limiter on that comment…
“In January 2015, the podcast was listened to by more than 11 million people.[57] By October 2015, it had grown to acquire 16 million downloads a month.[6][58][59] In April 2019, Rogan said that the podcast had 190 million downloads each month.[60]” From wikipedia.
The guy has a massive audience. I’ve never listened, but I hear that ” The podcast has been described as a “boundary-free arena”,” Yeah, not something Kamala would want to do for 3 hours.Report
The more I think about it, the more it seems likely to be a deflect-the-blame move.
Harris campaigned with Liz Cheney. Not “sat down and talked with”. Not “mentioned her endorsement”. ACTIVELY CAMPAIGNED WITH.
And it was Joe Rogan that got the ire of the staffers up?
Maybe they knew who Rogan was but didn’t know who Cheney was…Report
If you are 30 now you were 7 when the towers fell and 9 or 10 when Operation Iraqi Freedom began. If you are 25 now you were 1 or 2 when the towers fell and maybe 4 or 5 during Operation Iraqi Freedom.Report
“Maybe they knew who Rogan was but didn’t know who Cheney was[.]”
I think that’s a distinct possibility.Report
RE: (hard to get to TX twice in a 107 day campaign).
There is this new invention known as the telephone. Or Teams. Or other streaming meeting services.Report
That ain’t how Rogan does it. You’re just sitting in a room with him. Talking for 3 hours.
Have you never seen an episode of his?
Here’s the one he did with JD Vance:
It’s appropriate for having open in another window while you work on a task that doesn’t require your full attention.Report
One thing I’ve seen is “watch a streamer watch a movie” and I honestly could not figure out what was going on there until I realized that this is what kids do now instead of going over to their friends’ house to hang out. And I think that Rogan’s podcast is something like that, except it’s your two burnout buddies sitting on the couch bullshitting while you do something productive.Report
Welp Rogan is just asking questions about Jewish guys on his show: https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/01d860a45ed5463cfb3f73258faed248a0decec495ec224493e048d3f1cfe2ab.pngReport
Either this is a very bad joke or real but there are rumors of Boebert for Secretary of Education. I can not find anything to verify whether this is real or somebody making a very bad joke.Report
This one is satireReport
In a world where a guy under investigation for plausible ethical violations was just nominated for Attorney General, we can’t say anything is satire anymore.Report
Uncommitted Michigan delegate begs for Biden to do something about Netanyahu before Trump takes over. We haven’t seen this level of chutzpah for a long time.
https://x.com/atrupar/status/1856786479793766549?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1856786479793766549%7Ctwgr%5E948c22907efe762587a9680ecda45991da831b28%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fdisqus.com%2Fembed%2Fcomments%2F%3Fbase%3Ddefaultf%3Dlawyersgunsmoneyblog-comt_i%3D14615020https3A2F2Fwww.lawyersgunsmoneyblog.com2F3Fp3D146150t_u%3Dhttps3A2F2Fwww.lawyersgunsmoneyblog.com2F20242F112Fi-sleep-in-a-big-bed-with-laura-loomert_e%3DE2809CI20sleep20in20a20big20bed20with20Laura20LoomerE2809Dt_d%3D22I20sleep20in20a20big20bed20with20Laura20Loomer2220-20Lawyers2C20Guns202620Moneyt_t%3DE2809CI20sleep20in20a20big20bed20with20Laura20LoomerE2809Ds_o%3Ddescversion%3D2f004bcca512a26c144adf0de41046deReport
Uncommitted was thought to have 100k votes in Michigan. Trump won by 80k.
So a 50k flip would have made Michigan Blue.Report
They keep making strategic mistake after strategic mistake but then come begging and begging for somebody to save them from their own stupidity. They demand absolute respect while they go to the bathroom on everybody else but get pissy when you point this out. They can speak at great length and with much elegance on how Israel is blight upon all of Islam but can’t understand why Jews don’t want to be citizens of a Muslim state complete with rules against apostasy and blasphemy that is part of bigger Muslim world.Report
As someone who thought that it was appropriate, just barely, for Mitch McConnell to hold a SCotUS seat for a year based on “Advice and Consent”, I look forward to seeing more people agree with me.Report
Speaking of the Book of Revelation, Erdogan says that Turkey has cut all relations with Israel.Report
And just like that, Republicans feel good about the economy
https://www.axios.com/2024/11/13/consumer-sentiment-republican-democrat-switchReport
Hegseth’s not so subtle tattoos
https://www.thebulwark.com/p/whats-the-deal-with-pete-hegseth-crusader-tattoosReport
This conversation pops up every so often when someone does a Google Image Search of a cross tattoo and finds that Bad Guys had that tattoo as well, and assume that by the rule of contagion anyone with that tattoo is also a Bad Guy. (as opposed to the reality, which is that it looks cool and scary, and when you’re a 23-year-old soldier getting tattoos you just want things that look cool and scary and unless it’s Literally A Swastika you don’t really think about the political implications.)
Like, the guy pouring wine at the bar last night had an SPQR tattoo on his wrist and I’m pretty sure he was not advocating for the return of Imperial Rome.Report
Ezra Klein joins the circular firing squad instead of complaining about Trump:
Report
The Onion buys Infowars: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/14/business/media/alex-jones-infowars-the-onion.htmlReport
Separate post up about this nowReport
“One thing I would like Dems to admit during the brief crack in the Overton window to air things out, is that the CFPB did in fact try to ban gas stoves using bad data from a bullshit activist Colorado NGO, then called conservatives conspiracy theorists for noticing”
hehe I remember when this happened and we talked about it here and certain people were Very Upset at the idea anyone might not agree that banning gas stoves was a great ideaReport
Well THIS is an intriguing find from the archivesReport
Holy crap:
Report
I like Mike’s comment, two above yours.
It bothers me greatly that we (and I include myself in this, since I am at a keyboard instead of elsewhere) continue to normalize the abnormal, accept the unacceptable.Report
Welp it looks like RFK Jr is going to be the HHS nominee.
Putin had a very good year in 2024.Report
RFK Jr. has been nominated for the Department of Health and Human Services.
JFK Jr. has been nominated for the Department of Transportation.Report
Colorado Governor Jared Polis has expressed his support for RFK Jr.
Report
He walked it back very quickly.Report
The Walking Back:
Report
As someone pointed out, “this time around it’s the Kennedys who are killing us!”Report
Trump nominates John Sauer to Solicitor General and Todd Blanche to Deputy Attorney General. The Department of Justice is basically going to be his personal law firmReport
And the United States Armed Forces, his own personal army, navy, and airforce and all the intelligence agencies at his bidding. He is aiming to rule as a King and a very bad King at that.Report
Kentucky bourbon distillers are concerned about Trump’s tariffs despite voting for him:
https://www.wkyt.com/2024/11/14/kentucky-distillers-express-concerns-about-possible-tariffs/Report
Ben Domenech on Matt Gaetz:
I realize that we are occasionally given to hyperbole about the untoward nature of politicians, but let me be clear: Matt Gaetz is a sex trafficking drug addicted piece of shit. He is abhorrent. His eyes are permanently rimmed with the red rings of chemical boosters. In person, he smells like overexposed Axe Body Spray and stale Astroglide. The fact that he boasted on the floor to multiple colleagues in the House of Representatives of his methods of crushing Viagra and high test Red Bull to maintain his erection through his orgiastic evenings is perhaps the least offensive of his many crimes against womanhood and Christian faith. The man has less principles than your average fentanyl addicted hobo. He likes them underage and he’s not ashamed about it. Matt Gaetz isn’t just your average extreme Florida MAGA Man, he’s a hypocritical ass with the worst Botox money can buy, pursuing an ever-thinner nose and higher cheekbones at every opportunity like a Real Housewife gone mad for fillers. Every Republican in Washington has an opinion about Matt Gaetz, and 99 percent of those opinions are “Keep Matt Gaetz away from my wife/daughter/friend and anyone I care about.” He is a walking genital, warts included as a bonus. If I was merely attempting to count the number of women I know who have had bad experiences with Matt Gaetz, I would run out of fingers and toes. If you vote for him to be the Attorney General of the United States, you don’t just need your head examined, you need to be committed to a mental institution. The man is absolutely vile. There are pools of vomit with more to offer the earth than this STD-riddled testament to the failure of fallen masculinity.Report
Ben Domenech the editor-at-large of The Spectator World?Report
The very one.Report
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Matt_Gaetz#Child_sex_trafficking_investigation,_other_legal_issues_and_controversiesReport
Jerusalem Demsas has a fun article in The Atlantic: The Democrats Are Committing Partycide
A major point he makes is that California and New York are projected to lose up to 8 electoral votes in 2030. Texas and Florida are projected to gain 8.
If Kamala Harris had to compete with that map, even winning Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin wouldn’t have saved her.Report
Now, personally, I think that this should be read the exact same way as “The Emerging Democratic Majority” was back in 2002.
It’s a warning, not a promise.
Lord knows, there’s a lot of different ways that the Republicans can (and will!) alienate their new voters and invigorate the non-voters who might be inclined to vote for Democrats.
But that’s another thing to worry about overcoming.Report
Well that article is mostly about how NIMBY’s are fishing up everything in the major urban areas and is entirely correct. It can’t just be ignored or awkwardly gestured at by Dems at any level now but unfortunately it’s also not an easy nut to crack since housing controls are heavily localized and, to the degree the obstacles are not localized, they’re seated in environmental sacred cows like NEP and CEQA.
But on the brighter note, this same warning was sounded with left coasters fled to Colorado and Arizona in the early aughts.Report
Colorado Springs now has three, not one not two, In N Outs.Report
Yglesias is regularly beating on this drum and he isn’t wrong about it. Maryland doesn’t suffer from this stuff on quite the level of an NY or CA but it’s got the same kind of dynamic. Quality of life isn’t obviously better to the average person, for all of the taxation and high cost of living and the Democrats that govern the state seem broadly disinterested in bigger picture thinking. Governance is really parochial and focused on getting spoils to interest groups in the coalition at the expense of growth. Now that it is easy for me to work remote the only thing really tying me to it is all the friends and family. And the fact that this little state is apparently the only place in the entire country you can get a decent crab cake.
Democrats should work to improve this situation because its the right thing to do but I also am pretty meh on the political consequences. People will take their values with them and turn other, redder places purple or maybe over the long haul blue.Report
“I also am pretty meh on the political consequences”.
I dunno over the long haul, big picture, this seems alarming to me. I have some Blue friends in a state that’s very solidly Red, and they are considering moving elsewhere because they don’t like the way it’s going, to the point that they don’t even feel totally safe now (they are in a very very Red area of that Red state and there have been instances of minor political harassment there). And they are debating whether to move to a Blue state (where presumably they’ll feel fully politically at home) or to a Purple/swing state, on the theory that in a swing state their voice matters more, so they can help influence that state (and by it, the national vote) in the direction they hope.
There’s nothing wrong with that, and I’m not sure most people are thinking as strategically as they are – most simply want to be around other like-minded folks, period.
But still, if Red-thinking folks keep fleeing to Red states (or, trying to turn their destinations into Red states) and Blue-thinking folks do the same, then we just keep self-sorting ourselves in ways that seem destined to almost inevitably increase our political divisions. Ideally (never fully in reality, obviously, but ideally) you’d want Reds and Blues to all be living next door to each other and solving their problems together; not deciding that reasonable compromise can’t be reached and is no longer worth even trying to achieve, and engaging in a sort of White Flight, But Red And Blue.
Does us large-scale self-sorting ourselves as Americans help avoid civil war; or is it a precursor to it?Report
I certainly wouldn’t want to be in a deep red state, post Dobbs for my wife’s child bearing years, though I believe we are passed those.
However I see it a bit differently. In my adult life I’ve watched VA go from solidly red, to purple, to leans blue due to a self perpetuating influx into the DC suburbs and to a lesser degree the southeastern part of the state. We’ve also seen NC and GA become competitive for Democrats, even if previously in play rust belt states like OH and more cosmopolitan FL have fallen out of reach. Which isn’t to say Democrats should be complacent. Our political system rightly ensures a fight that will never end. However I think the great sort is something more likely to happen at the county and zip code level, not the state level. There’s no neat lines for a civil war. We also might be too old and rich to lay our lives down like that.Report
I certainly wouldn’t want to be in a deep red state, post Dobbs for my wife’s child bearing years
Forgot to mention this is also a factor for them; they have two daughters.
However I think the great sort is something more likely to happen at the county and zip code level, not the state level. There’s no neat lines for a civil war.
Well, you mention FL, which has gone solidly-red due to a huge influx of MAGA types – FL and TX sure like to posture that they do not need to answer to the Federal government, at least whenever there’s a D in the White House.
Maybe it’s all bluster – let a good hurricane or three hit ’em without any help from the Fed, and they’ll soon look a lot like Haiti and Cuba do after a big one blows over – but I sometimes do get the feeling that those two, at least, might get it into their heads to try to pull a South Will Rise Again situation.Report
Never say never. But… Florida is also one of the demographically oldest states in the country. Are its voters ready to turn off the flow of social security checks and Medicare for an ideologically driven secession project? It seems unlikely. Not quite as acute in TX but I’d think it’s still a pretty important factor.
One of the weirder contradictions we’re facing in Donald Trump’s America is that the party of (wildly irresponsible, draconian) budget cuts takes a lot of its support from those currently or close to status as beneficiaries of federal entitlement programs.Report
There’s probably a rarely read Econ dissertation out there about this, but one thing I’ve wondered that YIMBY’s never propose is to protect (or at least mitigate) NIMBY’s from economic harm.
NIMBY’s win because the loss aversion is stronger than the potential benefit *and* the losses could be very particular, even if the benefits are general. So the NIMBY position is both rational and widespread.
One way to mitigate this would be some sort of Property Value protection — could be Govt. funded, Market based, or both. Basically, your investment (and growth) is protected and should YIMBY policies tank your particular investment, you are made whole by the insurance program. It takes the primary loss aversion off the table, which then leaves the much weaker aesthetic concerns such as: I grew up here; or I like this shady boulevard and can’t find an exact match near work; or I can’t afford the craftsman houses in the good part of town, and they don’t make craftsman houses the way they used to, etc. etc.
There’s all sorts of ‘mathy’ things you could do to make this revenue neutral — that is, a semi-Georgist principle that losses are covered, but 25% (50%? 75%?) of the gains from YIMBY policies are collected as a tax upon sale… and so forth.
But simply trying to sell YIMBYism as a collective good (or some sort of moral imperative) when in any one particular instance it can be a individual bad is why YIMBY’s don’t make progress. Pool the gains and insure the risk.Report
I think you’re right that the only way to beat NIMBYism is some sort of elaborate bribe without calling it a bribe. However my sense is that in addition to loss aversion there are underlying political dynamics ensuring this is going to get worse before it gets better. For example it’s easier to build in red states for no reason other than a traditional friendliness to moneyed interests, including businesses and developers. But NIMBYism is itself a form of small-c conservatism, and the MAGA movement, while incoherent, strikes me as a lot more skeptical of building and change than a traditional country club Republican that just wants them and their friends to get rich. My guess is they will start to lean more restrictive over time. Meanwhile the Democrats are still in the early stages of their identity crisis. They don’t yet understand that they’re now the party of the affluent and upwardly mobile, i.e. those who are pinched harder than the renters, if for no reason other than that group expects to own a home one day and achieve at least the type of lifestyle their parents did.Report
Don’t actually see it as a bribe; Govt. created various zones that become market inputs and influence decisions and allocation of resources.
If Govt. changes the rules that negatively impact previous decisions, it is good policy to mitigate the negative impacts on some so that they are freer to make those changes that benefit the larger portion (hopefully).
It’s actually a good use of Govt. resources.
As far as I can tell, there isn’t an actual Red/Blue split on the issue… I see as much, if not more NIMBY in Blue areas than Red. As I say, I think it’s a valid calculus that people make, and the way to overcome the most valid objection is to recognize that some YIMBY choices will in fact harm some individuals and the party changing the terms of the original agreement ought to compensate the injured party.
The thing is, if the YIMBY assumptions are true, and most people will see increases in value then when they sell, the Govt. will see a gain in revenue from increasing those values (if we employ a semi-Georgist approach). Hence, it isn’t bribery, it’s the other side of making 21st century policy. Things we couldn’t imagine doing in 1980 with primitive computers are now ‘trivially’ easy (from a technology point of view).Report
Maybe bribe was the wrong word. And you have my vote on the concept. There is a tragedy of the commons aspect to the nexus of school quality, real estate values, and access to lifestyle perks. The best way to blow it up is for the state to find a way to guarantee the losers aren’t totally screwed.
What makes me pessimistic that we’re anywhere near that point in blue states though is just how much it would take to convince NIMBYs that the hypothetical payoff is better than the benefit they have right now. To give you an example of what I mean, one of my wife and I’s favorite games to play when we’re driving around here is spot the awkwardly renovated, 1300 square ft cape cod built in the 30s or 40s with an asking price of $800k or more. The house my dad grew up in is like this (shame I wasn’t in a place to buy it when him and my uncle offloaded it). This is even more insane in the desirable school districts. The result is a political class that pretends to be saving blighted apartments full of illegal aliens for social justice-y reasons. In actuality they’re protecting the interests of those with ancient, grossly over valued property that should be bulldozed for greater numbers of modern, higher density homes.
All this is to say that any scheme will need to convince people that their piece of junk valued at as much as 4 or 5 times what it should be stand a high chance of an even bigger payoff. That is just a really, really hard case to make when theyre already guaranteed enormous value for trash. My guess is that we will not reach a tipping point until a big enough proportion of today’s haves are either dead or gone off to Boca Raton.
As for the growing redder states I think it’s more likely they will succumb to the same kinds of political pressure the developed blue states did as they peak, rather than being far sighted enough to pre-empt it. Time will tell.Report
Given that upzoning actually increases property values, they’d probably rarely, if ever, actually have to pay out on this.Report
Right?.. that’s the beauty of it. Protect actual losers (there will be some) allay fears of many who won’t see any difference, and make sure that the State thinks a tiny bit about how it changes use laws so as not to nuke their budget.
Risk sharing semi-Georgist policies (opt-in?) are way better than ideological Georgism.Report
This is rewarding something that needs to be punished. Do this and there will be huge games played on the system (what is the “correct” price for houses) and the NIMBY won’t stop because people like large backyards or just dislike living next to [low income housing / whatever]
The solution is to take away (or at least brutally limit) the tools the NIMBYs use.Report
That’s pretty tough when the tool they use is called democracy. And they’re among the most motivated voters.Report
There is no reason why home/zoning regs needs to be set at a local level rather than a state level.
These tools have been misused so often and so consistently that something of that nature needs to happen.Report
Sure, I agree, but they vote in state level elections too. It isn’t realistic to think you’re ever going to get the critical mass of legislators you’d need to turn around and knife their most important, reliable constituents.
As distasteful as it may seem March’s is the only theory with a chance of ever succeeding. Now, as I said above, I think we may still be quite some time from getting there, but there is no alternative, other than maybe hoping for a glut of housing as the boomers die off in big numbers over the next 2 or 3 decades.Report
We managed to get a constitutional amendment to prevent alcohol in the face of the bulk of the nation being drinkers.
A lot of the NIMBYs are in favor of building housing in general, they’re just opposed to [this specific project].
Having a larger number of voters involved on the zoning of projects in general should prevent very narrow NIMBYs being shut out. If they want to end that project they need to talk to the state gov rather than their local gov.
BTW we should also get some state laws which outlaw defined benefit pensions for pretty much the same reason. The gov can’t be trusted to manage them correctly. All the incentives are backward.Report
But why? As BB says above, there’s a good chance that most of the change will be a net increase.
So you’re making a completely unnecessary ideological point that makes your preferred policy *less* likely to be supported — and provides no particular gain rather than trading for a policy almost no or limited cost?
Additionally, while it may be a net benefit, there really are losers in some cases — so providing some sort of protection in exchange for removing veto’s and/or moving the zoning process up a layer to states is precisely the point.Report
Our current situation is the gov is creating massive market distortions.
My suggestion is for the gov to not do that rather than to introduce more gov created massive distortions.
RE: “protection”.
How does this work exactly? The gov will somehow decide what is a “fair” value for your house, and if the market decides otherwise the gov will step in and compensate you?
Over what range will this happen? If we create massive amounts of new housing then the value of existing housing will fall, by a lot.
The current value of all US housing is $47 Trillion dollars. Ergo any reasonable compensation program needs to start with a price tag in Trillions of dollars.
In addition, there will be tremendous political pressure to hand out this bribe to everyone and shield everyone from the market.
Worse, that’s still not going to convince anyone that they should allow low income housing in their neighborhood because no one likes the social problems that come with that. Ergo the tools will still be misused.Report
“We managed to get a constitutional amendment to prevent alcohol in the face of the bulk of the nation being drinkers.”
Well, it’s not like there was some amazing political negotiation and trading that led to the passage of the Volstead Act. What happened was that the 19th Amendment was passed in 1920 and all the women promptly voted for Dry politicians (who had been advocating for suffrage because women wanted to vote for them so their husbands would stop coming home drunk and beating the shit out of them.)Report
https://nwheap.com/
I paid into this when we bought our house on the Northwest Side of Chicago. When we purchased, the neighborhood was a little iffy, but it was where we could afford to buy. We owned the house for 30 years and we were never in danger of having to make a claim. The peace of mind was well worth it.Report
Thanks for linking that… I’d never heard of such a program — glad to see it living in the wild. Based on a quick skim of the FAQs and About Us, I’d be happy to start there and see how it has worked in practice and what the gotcha’s were (for customers and agency) and how it could be improved upon.
But if I were an all-in YIMBY, I’d start every meeting/debate/TV hit with the idea that: FIRST, we’ll protect your assets; after that it’s all blah blah blah.
(65 ILCS 95/2) (from Ch. 24, par. 1602)
Sec. 2. Purpose. The purpose of a Home Equity Program and commission created under the provisions of this Act by the voters of a territory within a municipality with a population of more than 1,000,000 shall be to guarantee that the value of the property of each member of the program shall not fall below its fair market value established at the time the member registers in a program, provided that the member remains in the program for at least 5 years, keeps the property well maintained, continuously occupies the property as his or her principal residence, or a family member continuously occupies the property as a principal residence, and adheres to the guidelines of a program.
BTW, my godparents have lived on Lemont just north of that area (in Sauganash?) for the past 40 years.Report
Californians have been fleeing to Colorado for longer than that. I first heard the term “California diaspora” from a U of Colorado history professor in 1989.Report
Lest I be accused of flogging another dead horse – NEPA is just a “Show your work” statute. It doesn’t (and has never) required picking the most environmentally friendly project. It does require honestly describing the project you want to build, why you want to build it, what other alternatives you evaluated, and how you will address its impacts. Federal agencies have tremendous latitude in what level of NEPA they apply to projects, but as long as the record is complete it can’t stop anyone. Heck, you can’t even sue the government under NEPA for a NEPA determination, you have to do that under the administrative procedures act.Report
Trump demands 10 billion in damages for defamation from the Times, CBS, and others: https://www.cjr.org/the_trump_reader/trump-threatens-new-york-times-penguin-random-house-critical-coverage.phpReport
So the latest internet outrage is over casting Israeli Jews to play Jesus and Mary in a Biblical epic because Jesus was a “Palestinian.” This is anti-Semitic since they are basically erasing Jews from history.
https://www.thejc.com/news/israel/social-media-outrage-after-israeli-jew-cast-as-jesus-mother-in-netflix-biblical-epic-oprzqyyqReport
Meanwhile, the aggressively anti-Israel and even anti-Semitic education materials seem to be creeping into Irish schools according to the Jewish Chronicle:
https://www.thejc.com/news/world/jews-are-jesus-killers-and-israel-is-uniquely-aggressive-what-irish-pupils-are-taught-dhqmypgo
The anti-Semites of all stripes, right, left, and Islamic, seem to be on the march and nobody seems to want to put any effort to put them down.Report
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/512ccccfa2c346dd71eb7a8865a991e8b0b0998dbc7d35265cb57376ef8b62fc.jpg
NPR obeys in advanceReport
Is Chip okay? I’m not saying that he has to come back if he doesn’t want to come back or anything. I’m just making sure that he’s not dead or something.Report
I was going to make a joke about how white men struggle hardest with disappointment due to getting their way so often but that would be mean spirited.
I for one hope he finds his way back soon. We need all the perspectives we can get.Report
I saw him at another blog a few hours ago. He seemed fine. Should I let him know you’re concerned?Report
Just so long as he’s okay, I’m good.Report
Did he go off in a huff or something?Report
He just left on election night and hasn’t returned.Report
Maybe he anticipated there would be a pledge drive starting soon and decided to switch the station.Report
Defense Secretary nominee Hegseth seems to be after Trump’s heart:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/11/16/pete-hegseth-sexual-assault-accuser-paid/?pwapi_token=eyJ0eXAiOiJKV1QiLCJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiJ9.eyJyZWFzb24iOiJnaWZ0IiwibmJmIjoxNzMxNzMzMjAwLCJpc3MiOiJzdWJzY3JpcHRpb25zIiwiZXhwIjoxNzMzMTE1NTk5LCJpYXQiOjE3MzE3MzMyMDAsImp0aSI6IjBhYTFkOWE3LWQ3YzAtNGJkZi1iODExLWFjZmE3MzMzYWQ4ZiIsInVybCI6Imh0dHBzOi8vd3d3Lndhc2hpbmd0b25wb3N0LmNvbS9wb2xpdGljcy8yMDI0LzExLzE2L3BldGUtaGVnc2V0aC1zZXh1YWwtYXNzYXVsdC1hY2N1c2VyLXBhaWQvIn0.taA1whYLQ3FV4lj5EpmAipAymzU03UcBrTwLwnL2KI8Report
Ann Selzer has an op-ed in which she announces her retirement from polling.
It’s kinda defensive in the middle.
Report
UFC fighter Jon Jones gave Trump his championship belt after the fight. And a callback to one of last season’s big storylines.
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We’re 500 years ahead of schedule.Report