Panamanicans: U.S. Troops in Panama

US troops will be able to deploy to a string of facilities along the Panama Canal under a joint deal seen by @AFP. The document, signed by top security officials from both countries, allows US military personnel to deploy to Panama-controlled facilities for training, exercises and a range of other activities. The agreement stops short of allowing the United States to build its own bases on the isthmus, a move that would be deeply unpopular with Panamanians and legally fraught.

This is a simple matter of geographic deniability. The canal serves as a choke point and this is an opening salvo for the Deputy Director of Policy, Elbridge Colby. The former national security policy maker has long championed deniability. On a map, it’s simple: deny control of the canal.

Morally and ethically, there is a claim for the Americans to assert control over the canal. The French feel they have some historical context for envisioning the canal. Personally, the argument for that is weak.

When the Americans arrived at the Canal in 1904, they found that little useful infrastructure had survived from the French effort. The directive from President Roosevelt was to “make the dirt fly,” but that was at odds with reality. The city of Colón was filthy and disease ridden, buildings were in disrepair, most of the equipment lay in rusting heaps, and the Panama Railroad was in deplorable condition.

But that is not really the point for Colby. It is creating the choke point that is the focal point of his strategy and policy: deniability. Even if there wasn’t historical and moral high ground available, Colby would point at a map of South America. He would tell you about the danger of the two Chinese influence networks in Peru and Venezuela linking up. How the threat increases is easily explained using a map. Deny the water access. Make them use the jungle.

What is not explained is the presence of China in ports along the African Atlantic coast and its position near the Gulf of Aden in Djibouti. Their official military port is at Djibouti, but their ability to put vessels on the coast of Western Africa is clear. That easterly pressure would be magnified 10 fold if China gained control of the canal.

Having a freer hand to move sanctioned oil for their communist allies in Caracas would eventually lead to real conflict with the western hemisphere. Venezuela’s neighbors can also read a map and they do not want to be in the crossfire of two angry economic rivals. Honestly, it’s hard to imagine anyone does with the volatility of it all. Deniability has always been Colby’s professed preferred method. Guy wrote a whole book about it but policy-wise this was the 2018 national defense strategy.

In a security environment where the homeland is no longer a sanctuary and every operating domain is contested, competitors and adversaries will continue to operate across geographic regions and span multiple domains to offset and erode joint force advantages.

The French leaking this is unsettling as they also have a significant presence in West Africa and the East Atlantic. Moving troops into Panama is the right strategic call. Deniability in Aden is not as effective as it undermines the American message of free navigation of the seas. Placing troops, at no inconvenience to Panamanians, at the canal is a smart soft power move given how unstable things look globally. Let’s hope cooler heads prevail and smart strategy works well enough to not require much harder strategies.

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