Kamala’s Veepstakes

The Kamala Harris train has left the station and is currently chugging towards Election Day. It won’t be a long ride, but it should be an interesting one. (Although we really don’t want interesting, do we?)

As of this writing, Harris has the support of enough delegates to secure the nomination, more than $100 million in donations to her campaign in about 24 hours, and at least temporary control of the Biden-Harris campaign funds. The Trump campaign is suing to block the transfer of Biden campaign funds to Harris, and per the legal eagles at Advisory Opinions, there are good arguments both ways as to whether the suit has merit. Even if the suit is successful, the funds can be transferred to the DNC or a PAC, so they will almost certainly be used against Trump in some form or fashion.

Harris is not yet the official presumptive nominee, however. The DNC gave potential challengers until July 30 to declare their candidacy. I do not expect any serious candidates to emerge in the face of what seems to be widespread Democratic unity in supporting Harris, but I’m keeping an eye out for Marianne Williamson.

One of the next steps is for Harris to choose a running mate. This decision will have to be made by the time Democrats hold their convention in Chicago the week of August 19. This only gives Harris about three weeks to vet and pick a person that she may be working closely with for the next four to eight years.

The vice presidency is a thankless job. John Nance Garner, one of FDR’s vice presidents (he had three different ones), famously described the position as “not worth a bucket of warm [bodily fluid].”

Assuming the president doesn’t die (or get impeached and removed from office), the vice president’s most visible role is in attending state funerals and assisting in the campaign as an attack dog. With a great many people qualified to step into the president’s shoes, the decision is often made based on strategic reasons. Sometimes veeps are picked for their state or region or because they represent a particular demographic or ideology. In a perfect world, a running mate would check several boxes.

President Biden picked Kamala Harris in part because he promised to pick a woman as his running mate. Donald Trump chose Mike Pence to soften his image and appeal to evangelical conservatives. The junior senator Barack Obama picked Joe Biden for his long experience in government. George W. Bush picked Dick Cheney because of his foreign policy experience as well.

A good vice presidential candidate can add to the ticket, but a bad one can be a drag. Sarah Palin was widely considered a bad pick for John McCain due to her inexperience and lack of knowledge. Dan Quayle was also panned when picked by George Bush – 41, but, unlike McCain-Palin, Bush-Quayle still went on to win the 1988 election.

As I noted earlier this week, Donald Trump’s choice of JD Vance is being widely second-guessed. Vance doesn’t bring much to the campaign. His home state of Ohio is now reliably red. He is not well-liked by conservatives and independents. He isn’t a great speaker for boosting Donald Trump. He is not an experienced campaigner. When picking a running mate, Kamala Harris should avoid these mistakes.

With only three weeks, Harris should also concentrate her search on candidates who have already been thoroughly vetted. Democrats can’t afford any last-minute surprises such as the one that George McGovern got from Thomas Eagleton. Only candidates who have won statewide elections, preferably more than once, should be considered.

Next, Harris should, like Anakin Skywalker, seek to bring balance to the force of the ticket. (Hopefully, this will work out better for Kamala than it did for Anakin.) For a ticket headed by a minority progressive woman, balance would be brought by adding a white male moderate. A 2020 Gallup poll found that 90 percent of Americans would vote for a black or woman candidate, but 10 percent is a large share of the electorate to write off.

Ideally, this person would be from a battleground or red state. Kamala is a California liberal, but she needs to reach out to moderate and independent voters as well as disaffected Republicans and conservatives. The Never Trump coalition needs to extend beyond the Democratic Party and progressives. Republicans will tar Harris as a “socialist” (because that’s what they always do), but a successful swing-state politician with bipartisan appeal would help to blunt those attacks.

With all that in mind, here are the possibles that reportedly make up Kamala’s shortlist:

Josh Shapiro – Shapiro is Jewish and the governor of Pennsylvania since 2023. He won by a wide margin over a MAGA candidate in a purple state. The downside is that he hasn’t been in the job long and prior offices as state attorney general and representative leave his resume a bit thin. On the other hand, he has the same last name as a trumpy podcaster so that would be funny.

Roy Cooper – The North Carolina governor won re-election in a battleground state. The Tar Heel State is perennially just out of reach for Democrats, but a favorite son could change that as well as boost other Southern Democrats. A con is that Cooper has never held federal office so his foreign policy chops may be nonexistent.

Andy Beshear – The Kentucky governor just won reelection in a red state by a wider margin than his first victory. As with Cooper, foreign policy may be a weakness.

Gretchen Whitmer – The two-term governor of Michigan could boost Democratic chances in the swing states of the Rust Belt.

JB Pritzker – The governor of Illinois would not be a good choice. Aside from being a Chicago liberal, Pritzker is tied to the felonious former Illinois governor, Rod Blagojevich (the ads write themselves). As a current Illinois governor, the odds are good that Pritzker will one day go to jail for one thing or another.

Tim Walz – The Minnesota governor is a bit of a dark horse. He is an army veteran and served in the US House of Representatives for 12 years. Walz is a moderate who represented a district that normally leaned Republican.

Pete Buttigieg – “Mayor Pete” has emerged as an eloquent speaker with several recent viral talk-show attacks on the Trump-Vance campaign. Buttigieg is a veteran and the current Secretary of Transportation. Having said that, Buttigieg is short on leadership experience and his tenure at the DOT has received mixed reviews. There is also the question of Buttigieg’s sexuality, which would be a turnoff for many voters. I wouldn’t be surprised if we have a gay vice president or president at some point, but this is not the year to push boundaries.

Mark Kelly – Kelly has been an Arizona senator since 2021 and is a retired naval aviator and astronaut. He is the husband of Gabby Giffords who was the target of an assassination attempt by a mentally ill man in 2011. Kelly is a moderate with an exciting resume. He could help deliver Arizona for Harris, but he has only been in the Senate for a short time.

Personally, at this point, I think Kelly would be the best pick, but I may be biased toward the pilot and astronaut. Kelly checks a lot of boxes, including an ability to appeal to moderates and conservatives, veteran status, and leadership experience. His major weakness is his lack of political experience.

(As a footnote, Kelly is not the only astronaut to pursue a political career. John Glenn was a Democratic senator representing Ohio from 1974 through 1999. He was considered by Jimmy Carter as a vice presidential candidate in 1976 and ran for president in 1984.)

In reality, I’m going to vote for Harris to keep Trump out of power. Her vice presidential pick isn’t a dealbreaker for me. It likely isn’t a dealbreaker for Democratic progressives or other Never Trumpers either, but her choice could affect fence sitters who can’t decide between Harris, Trump, or staying home. Kamala Harris needs to give these low-energy voters a reason to pull the lever for her ticket. Whoever she chooses needs to complement her campaign and help her to win over undecided voters rather than preaching to the Democratic choir.