Ever since the War in Ukraine started, it scared many European, especially Eastern European countries. Many of them have been fearing invasion next, among them Georgia and Moldova. Both countries have had to deal with Russian-supported separatists in the past, and now fear being next on Putin’s radar. Due to this fear, Moldova has been constant and urgent in its attempts to join both NATO and the European Union. Like Ukraine, Moldova is a post-Soviet country with issues regarding regional separatism. To understand why Moldova fears Russian aggression, we must first look at the history of Moldova and its historic relationship with Russia and the Soviet Union.
Moldova was a part of the Soviet Union though it shared a cultural and geographical relationship with Romania including the same language. Before, it had been called Bessarabia and ruled by the Russian Empire. Due to this, historically it has been culturally closer to Romania but has been politically under the Russo-Soviet orbit until independence in 1991. Hence, Russian speakers and the Russian language were given preference and dominance over Romanian under Soviet rule. This has resulted in a heavy historic Russian-Soviet presence in the country and a substantial Russian minority. This is the main reason for conflict in the region and the root of why Moldova fears Russian intervention.
In 1991, when Moldova got independence after the break-up of the Soviet Union, it adopted a cultural and national identity closer to Romania and stepped away from a Russian-aligned identity. This did not sit well with a large chunk of the Russian-speaking minority. This led to the Transnistrian War. Transnistria is the northeastern part of Moldova, bordering Ukraine where the majority of Russian speakers live. In 1990, when the Soviet Union fell and Moldova broke away, separatists in this region broke away to form the Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic (more commonly known as Transnistria). This was a self-proclaimed separatist state which claimed to create a Soviet state for the Russian speakers in the region. They claimed to break away from the culturally Romanian-dominated policies of the new Moldovan government to reclaim the Soviet-Era Russian-speaking order. This self-proclaimed republic went to war with the Moldovan government. The separatist forces were majorly militia and paramilitary forces such as the Transnistrian Republican Guard, as well as many Russian volunteers, as well as Cossacks (government-affiliated militias) from Russia. The rebels were also supported by elements of the Russian armed forces (specifically the 14th Guards Army). This war, which lasted for the better part of two years, led to a victory for the rebel side. A ceasefire was signed, and Transnistria retained its de-facto independence from Moldova, who had to accept this.
The Russian and rebel forces had an overwhelming superiority in military strength over Moldavian security forces. Because of this, since the war even though Transnistria has not received international recognition as a state, it has retained de-facto independence. The conflict between Moldova and the rebels has become a frozen conflict with no major changes due to Moldova not being able to confront both the rebels and Russia which supports them. This is the present situation with Transnistria controlling most of the land between the border with Ukraine, and the Dnieper river. With this context, we can look at how Moldova and Transnistria are related to the war in Ukraine and why this makes Moldova wary of Russia.
For one thing, Moldova is greatly concerned about Russia increasing its support for Transnistria which would make it impossible for them to retake the territory. There is also a relatively substantial Russian military presence in Transnistria, consisting of the “Operational Group of Russian Forces.” They have an important ammunition depot at Cobasna and a headquarters at Tiraspol, the capital of Transnistria. This presence makes it extremely hard for Moldova to even attempt to reclaim the territory. They also have felt an imminent danger, as Transnistria is not necessarily a geographically confined state; Moldovans fear either aggression from Transnistria or Russians under the guise of supporting the rebels, like in Ukraine. Russia has in the past not hesitated to directly militarily intervene on the side of rebels in Post-Soviet nations and has done so in Georgia and in Moldova itself too to a lesser extent in the past. All these factors worry Moldova about Russian or rebel aggression.
These concerns have become even graver after the war in Ukraine started and has carried on. In April 2022, there were a series of explosions in Tiraspol, which Ukrainian sources attributed to a Russian attempt at provocation. Ukraine fears Russian attacks through Transnistria due to Moldova’s long rebel-held border with Ukraine and the strategic location of this border. If Russian forces can take Ukraine’s strategic port city of Odesa, they would be able to form a direct corridor to Transnistria, surrounding Ukraine from the West and cutting off much of their Black Sea access.
This would make operations in Moldova much easier and also allow them to create a new Western Front for Ukraine to deal with, much closer to their vital cities such as Kyiv and Lviv. Creating this front would also allow Russia to intensify its assault from Crimea which they control since 2014. They can bring in more supplies and troops onto the mainland through the Transnistrian corridor from Crimea.
Right now, much of their advances through Crimea have been contained at the edge of the peninsula but a second front to the west could change this and allow Russia easier logistics which has been a tough issue for Russia since the conflict began.
These are the reasons, linking up with Transnistrian rebels could be on the minds of Russian generals, and could be a threat to Moldova. It would help them box Ukraine in from multiple sides, and gain a foothold using rebels they have already supported for decades. Moldova alone cannot do much about this and hence is worried. They are not NATO or European Union members, and since the war in Ukraine have increasingly attempted to join at least the latter.
As Russia’s war effort in Ukraine falters, with constant setbacks and not much progress, the idea of creating a second front to make defense harder for Ukraine seems more attractive to them. Their current strategy is not showing too many gains with Ukraine even launching counter offensives in July of 2022. Hence, for Russia, as the situation gets more desperate, they might start looking into different options to change the stalemate or worse the back footing they are currently on.
Recently, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has made statements which warn about an armed escalation from Russia, if their troops in Transnistria would feel threatened from Moldova. “Any action that would threaten the security of our troops would be considered under international law as an attack on Russia.”, He stated. This shows how important Transnistria is to Russia and points towards a potential unfreezing of the conflict there. This potentially might point towards Russia taking action in Moldova.
Only mildly related to this extremely interesting post.
A good friend of mine, who used to work for a European energy utility that operated in Moldova, was offered -after the unpleasantness between the two parts of the country- to head of the company’s operations in Transnistria.
As you can imagine, the Transninstrian authorities were not willing to have their utility run from Moldova proper.
My friend traveled to Tiraspol, spent a couple of days there, understood how things were expected to work, returned to the head office rejecting the proposal. The company told my friend to chose Transnistria or nothing.
My friend resigned. He still shudders at the ideaReport
In the Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic, everything has to go through the Sheriff.Report