Armchair Generals
Afghanistan is an absolute clusterfark.
There’s plenty of blame to go around, but most of it sits squarely on President Biden’s shoulders. We can play armchair generals until our faces turn blue, but, at the end of the day, this was Biden’s evacuation plan and his alone. Trump left him with a shoddily negotiated deal with the Taliban that would almost certainly have led to the Taliban completely retaking Afghanistan. This is true. But that doesn’t change how badly the evacuation is being executed. The Taliban is an awful band of human rights-abusing terrorists and serial killers. Any deal with them was Faustian from the jump. Biden did not attempt to renegotiate that deal at any point, outside of pushing our military pull-out by a few months. The Taliban consistently broke the terms of the Trump deal, and no one did anything. No reprisals, no nothing.
The entire military and intelligence gathering infrastructure is pointing fingers at each other. Biden claims no one told him the country would collapse this quickly while plenty of leaks are stating the very opposite. Heads need to roll, starting with the Secretary of State and the Secretary of Defense, along with the heads of the NSA, the DNI, the CIA, and the Joint Chiefs of Staff. This is our worst foreign policy debacle since at least the fall of Tehran if not the fall of Saigon. To say nothing of the Bay of Pigs.
Biden clearly wanted out and didn’t care how it was accomplished. Billion’s worth of our military equipment was just straight up abandoned, to be used against us or sold to the highest bidder from some unsavory country like China, Russia, or Iran. Tons of cash and even our database of allies (which the Taliban is, of course, using to hunt them.) Our allies were not pulled out before the military, and neither were American citizens. In fact, the Biden Administration apparently doesn’t even have an accurate count of how many Americans are still left in the country. The contractors and air support that the Afghan military needed to stay operational were both pulled, which is why that military collapsed so quickly. They had no true means of fighting the Taliban.
Biden, in less than seven months, is turning into Carter 2.0, just without the deregulation. If a single American is held hostage or killed, I don’t really know what stops DeSantis or whoever from winning in 2024. Countless allies, such as translators, have already been brutally killed, along with many of their family members. Loads of women and girls, some scarily young, have been sold into sexual slavery. In some ways, that’s a fate worse than death. The Taliban is whipping people in the streets for arbitrary reasons (like there’s a good reason to whip someone,) killing women who are not “modestly” dressed, and a whole load of other nasty crap. All on President Biden’s watch.
I don’t know if we should have stayed in Afghanistan forever, but the last American military casualty was well over a year ago, in February of 2020. The Afghan military, who wanted to fight, had lost scores since that time. We were essentially logistical support at this point. It wasn’t really much of a war that we were fighting. On par with what we do for Israel or South Korea. Our position at the status quo where we were was not untenable. I could understand it if we were losing men every day or week or month. But over a year without a single casualty just makes the collapse of the country sad. Billions were spent, thousands of our soldiers’ lives were lost, injuries galore.
Why sacrifice all of that for this mess? But that’s just my opinion, a random person in a sea of armchair generals.
The Afghan military, who wanted to fight
Sorry, this is just not so.
The Afghan military had a pre-arranged agreement with the Taliban and cheerfully surrendered in exchange for cash and prizes, ordering their troops to lay down their weapons. They abandoned their own kinsmen without so much as a thought. The leaders of the country flew away with sacks of money stolen from their countrymen, ignoring the plight of their people.
There are no stories of Afghan Dunkirks, because there are no Afghan Churchills. There are no stories of Afghan Resistance, because they have no De Gaulles.
There were no Alamos, no Thermopylae, no heroic last stands by plucky Afghan fighters because their leaders had already sold them out.
Instead there are the Malalas, shot and maimed, who had to flee because their own countrymen refused to defend them.Report
Interview I heard with an Afghan soldier was they didn’t fight because no one told they had to, which aligns with your point that the military leadership had already decided to do nothing.Report
the last American military casualty was well over a year ago, in February of 2020.
Which is the same moth that the US and the Taliban signed the agreement for complete American withdrawal. I’ll put my armchair general hat on and say that’s not a coincidence, and that if the US had broken that agreement and decided to stay, the killings would have resumed.Report
An excellent summation of the neocon position.Report
Not really. I have no intention to favor nation building, but the status quo before we left was certainly better than the Taliban taking over the country in a few weeks.Report
The status quo, immediately prior to our leaving, was based on Trump making a deal for us to leave prior to Biden’s election. Thus the Taliban had ceased attacking us. Had Biden reneged then you can be sure the status quos would not of held and we’d have resumed mailing American servicemembers home in bags and pouring more money into that country promptly. While this would have no doubt delighted the military, their contractors and the usual suspects on the right it would have pleased no one else.Report
It’s not complicated. Trump agreed to leave in 2021 in return for no bad news until the election and began an immediate drawdown of troops based on this agreement. Anyone saying “The situation was stable with only 3000 Americans”. (and there’s an awful lot of them) is ignoring that.Report
An unsustainable status quo.
The ANA was losing ground during the Trump “surge.” To keep a status quo going America would as a baseline be a bigger commitment than that. Otherwise you’re just dragging this thing out longer waiting for something change in your favour.Report
Granted that the Biden administration’s planning for the evacuation was deficient, that leads to the question of how much better the results would have been if it weren’t? Once the war aims expanded from taking out a discrete bunch of thugs, which was hard but doable, to, well, whatever our war aims were, winning in any meaningful sense was out of the question. Once we committed, rightly, to getting the f**k out in a reasonably near future, the difference between keeping a 4-digit-sized force there a bit longer and getting out a bit sooner probably didn’t matter much. To be cold-blooded about it, how many more Afghanis would we have been able to extract with better planning? There’s nothing much else we could reasonably have hoped to accomplish.Report
It makes the effort of what we did over the last 20 years pointless. We wasted all that blood and treasure for functionally no true global gain of any kind.Report
It didn’t make it pointless; it was pointless. Sunk cost fallacy. Economists know all about it.Report
This.Report
That’s not what that is. I’ve literally written about this exact misunderstanding.Report
Which was true the minute Trump agreed to leave with no conditions on the Taliban’s actions in Afghanistan. Probably before that too, but certainly then.Report
Yup, any possible gains thrown away to try to prevent His Orangeness any embarrassment. Similarly, comprehensive Covid testing and the belief in modern medicine that would have improved our mediocre vaccination rate. Oh, and many (foolish, but that’s always a big demographic) people’s faith in the election system.
Do you see the pattern?Report
I’m sure that the official line is going to be something like “everything was going swimmingly until Trump showed up! The buck stops *THERE*!”
But I can’t help but think that Afghanistan was a mix between cluster and grift and had been for more than merely 4 years.Report
Not that polls mean anything, but if these were Trump’s numbers, they would.
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If they stay through to next year they’ll be ugly for anyone in charge. If they stay.Report
Airline safety had always been an issue until OBL made sure we’d address it.Report
And we’re still taking off our shoes at security.
Oh, and no regular-sized toothpaste tubes either.Report
You’re right we did waste twenty years worth of blood and treasure for no functional national gain. You nailed it.
Welcome to the real world.Report
There’s also the minor – and for neocons inconvenient – fact that the Administration has evacuated 17,000 people in the last week, bringing the total evacuation to over 22,000 since the start of July. I don’t see those numbers as particularly bad, but I also haven’t seen any hard numbers on how many Afghans WANT to be evacuated.Report
The argument that I’d give is something like this:
Of course we had to say that we weren’t getting anybody out. If we said “we’re getting these people out”, the Taliban would have captured them first! So we had to lie and do it behind the scenes. We’re competent but pretending to be incompetent is an important part of our competence!”, it’d sort of tip our hand.
(And if I wanted to argue against the above argument, I’d open with something like “so everything that looked like it might have been a mistake was a feint and it was a demonstration of how meta-competent you are?”)Report
That’s an argument you wouldn’t want to launch until you can be confident it’ll be a post hoc assertion.Report
If it can deflect the argument until the next news cycle, you’re good.
Hey! There’s a guy trying to bomb the Library of Congress! Look over there!Report
Mmmm I feel that just doing what he’s doing, putting his head down and trying to muscle through the withdrawal period, is as likely to work. I feel like claiming to be playing 4d chess is a high risk approach unless you can do it in a setting where the outcome has already been determined and it’s a satisfactory one. For instance if most to all of the Westerners and a large number of Afghan refugees are withdrawn and Afghanistan is off his plate, that’s when I’d try claiming that it was all meta-competence; not before.Report
I think the straightforward answer is that you can’t give that kind of vote of no confidence in the Afghan government if you think there’s even a chance it can hold out for 90 days. Hell even if you strongly suspect it can’t, is the fallout really any worse for not having precipitated a mildly less bad version of what we’re witnessing now 3 months ago? I don’t think so.
But IMHO the entire line of thinking is way too meta. This is another situation where what’s important to the establishment just isn’t to the American people.
Contra the latest in woke broke anti-colonialist theory the US has always been uncomfortable as an imperial power. Yea, we’ve been willing to assert ourselves in our hemisphere and we took the mantle of world power out of necessity during the Cold War but have never been great at it or particularly committed at the popular level. If we really want to get meta I think the more interesting question is, now that the unipolar moment has passed, are we just reverting back to mean? A strong, but inward looking nation, interested in our own ongoing social and political experiments but deeply ambivalent about the rest of the world, and the Old World in particular.Report
While everyone in the West is freaking out about the Taliban taking over, the people who were ostensibly the leaders of Afghanistan, that we propped up for decades, ae eagerly negotiating to be a part of the new Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan.
https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/you-wouldnt-know-it-from-the-us-news-coverage-but?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+Talking-Points-Memo+%28Talking+Points+Memo%3A+by+Joshua+Micah+Marshall%29Report
Meet The Press hasn’t gotten the memo that we ought to be talking about Trump instead.
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Maybe… cuz there was no memo…?Report