Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s Problem: Himself

It would be prudent to provide an explainer on the unrest that has been rocking Turkey for 5 days. For the sake of brevity, the Turks are protesting the unjust and unexplained arrest of presidential frontrunner Ekrem Imamoglu. Along with negotiating for Ukraine, rebuilding Syria while keeping Iran out, and aiding multiple African countries – Ankara has had massive protests erupt across their entire country. No rest for the wicked.

Ekrem Imamoglu is the current mayor of metropolitan Istanbul and the leading candidate to replace current Turkish President Recep Erdogan. Erdogan cannot run for another term unless the Turkish parliament changes their election laws. An idea to allow Erdogan a 3rd term has been floated by some Turkish Conservative Nationalists. A rumor exists that with a Kurdish peace deal in Syria, the conservative AKP could conceivably make it a legal reality. Targeting political opponents has been Erdogan’s bread and butter since back when he was the up-and-coming scrappy emo-poet/reformer mayor of Istanbul.

This is deeply unpopular with the Turkish center-left that has made it clear that they see Erdogan as the source of concern over their security, economic future and freedom of expression. They want his resignation – like yesterday – though their expectations may not be realistic. Imamoglu has been questioned about claims of him being a Gulenist and has been accused of conspiring with Kurdish politicians without getting into hot water. But now, Imamoglu’s popularity, the whispers of being an illegitimate academic and closeness to Iran are enough to arrest the mayor and whisk him off to prison.

Protesters immediately organized and took to the streets demanding Imamoglu’s release and Erdogan’s resignation. Like clockwork, Erdogan deployed his usual tactics of media suppression, internet restrictions, social media blackouts and harsh, at times arbitrary, arrests. None of this is new or surprising for Turks and Erdogan will most likely prevail for now, but the situation for Ankara is truly a tense one.

In Istanbul, they’ve used tear gas and rubber bullets. In Ankara, police have deployed water cannons to disperse crowds. Erdogan has issued multiple warnings and as usual, the international community stands with democracy and justice. It is unclear how America sees the events or how new President Donald Trump will respond.

Many compare these protests to those that were quelled a decade ago when Ankara infamously cut twitter off in Turkey but few have mentioned an attempted coup in 2019. Gen. Michael Flynn who worked for President Donald Trump praised the coup attempt at the time. Trump’s White House has been uncharacteristically quiet about Ankara as it transitions into power. Likely not wanting to inflame the situation in Syria, the White House team seems content to watch and keep talks with Ankara out of the Trump-orbit media circus.

None of this is surprising from Erdogan and the hardliners in the AKP. They have engaged in kabuki judicial proceedings and restricted free access to information for the entirety of the 20 years Erdogan has been on the world stage. He may survive by the skin of his teeth yet again, but the foreign adventurism and dismal domestic economic situation may soon bring Turkey to a critical mass. Unlawful detentions, racked up charges, and show trials are certainly in the future. Whether or not that is enough to quell another revolution is the mystery the region must embrace