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Marchmaine in reply to InMD
Ignoredon Open Mic for the week of 3/31/25I think the premise that someone like Cass is working with is that Trump and Musk *aren't* on-board.…Jaybird in reply to InMD
Ignoredon Open Mic for the week of 3/31/25Musk seems to have flipped from Grey to Red (though who knows how long that will last). Cass is an o…InMD in reply to Jaybird
Ignoredon Open Mic for the week of 3/31/25Eh maybe...? I mean admittedly I am not the closest Musk follower but my take on him is that his two…Dark Matter in reply to Chris
Ignoredon A Grudging Concession About Something Trump DidThe Good: 1) Tariffs on China. 2) What he's done with Israel. 3) Dismantling DEI and understanding i…Jaybird in reply to InMD
Ignoredon Open Mic for the week of 3/31/25This isn't exactly the Grey Tribe (though Musk has overlap with them and Thiel is Grey to the bone).…InMD in reply to Marchmaine
Ignoredon Open Mic for the week of 3/31/25The ideas are worth taking seriously but the conceit that Trump (or Vance, or Musk) understand or ar…David TC in reply to Dark Matter
Ignoredon Trump’s Most Insidious Scheme (So Far)That's a law enforcement agency arresting, for months or years, people who not only have not committ…Jaybird
Ignoredon Open Mic for the week of 3/31/25Welp, they're going for the death penalty for Luigi Mangione. Sacco and Vanzetti, 2025.Marchmaine
Ignoredon Open Mic for the week of 3/31/25Come for the Jon Stewart fun, stay for the autistic nerd talking about the new-center-right economic…Chris in reply to Brandon Berg
Ignoredon A Grudging Concession About Something Trump DidWhat are some good policies?

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LeeEsq in reply to Saul Degraw
Ignoredon Open Mic for the week of 3/31/25Dark Matter in reply to David TC
Ignoredon Trump’s Most Insidious Scheme (So Far)Brandon Berg
Ignoredon A Grudging Concession About Something Trump DidDavidTC
Ignoredon A Grudging Concession About Something Trump DidDavid TC
Ignoredon Trump’s Most Insidious Scheme (So Far)David TC in reply to David TC
Ignoredon Open Mic for the week of 3/31/25David TC in reply to Saul Degraw
Ignoredon Open Mic for the week of 3/31/25Saul Degraw in reply to David TC
Ignoredon Open Mic for the week of 3/31/25Saul Degraw
Ignoredon Open Mic for the week of 3/31/25Saul Degraw in reply to Burt Likko
Ignoredon Trump’s Most Insidious Scheme (So Far)Dark Matter in reply to Philip H
Ignoredon Trump’s Most Insidious Scheme (So Far)Jaybird in reply to LeeEsq
Ignoredon Martin Niemöller, and Who First They Came ForJaybird in reply to Marchmaine
Ignoredon A Working Man ReviewedLeeEsq in reply to Philip H
Ignoredon Martin Niemöller, and Who First They Came ForLeeEsq in reply to Jaybird
Ignoredon Martin Niemöller, and Who First They Came For
The main thing is that the guy who goes first sets not only the hand that everybody else has to beat but the number of rolls it’ll take to beat it. So, in this case, the guy got 4-of-a-kind on his first roll.
It’s a good roll!
But I tend to agree with the guy at the bottom. Four deuces in a six handed game? When 1s are wild? I’d say that there’s a 50/50 chance that someone will beat it.
ReportI asked chatGPT for some math help and he said that, if 1s are wild, you’ve got ~4% chance to roll four-of-a-kind with one roll of the dice.
Go around the table and do that five times? That’s a 20% chance.
So, no, not 50%.
But you’re going to see it all the time.Report
Who wins in the case of tie? If another player also has four deuces on their first roll? If the other players have to roll four threes or better, that reduces the 20% somewhat.Report
The dude doesn’t say.
If *I* were playing in my house for money (nickel, dime, quarter, of course), we’d eliminate the people who didn’t have a tie and re-bet and then change who has the first roll for the next round.Report