97th Oscars Projections: Post Oscars Shortlists Outlook
The fast-paced awards season continues with yet another dramatic week of progress as the Academy revealed shortlists for several categories. Leading the charge are two musicals – Emilia Perez and Wicked. The former is a drama about a drug cartel kingpin who transitions, only to confront her tumultuous past; while the latter is a comedic prequel of The Wizard of Oz, adapted from the wildly popular Broadway show of the 2000s. Emilia Perez may not boast stellar critical or audience scores, but it has garnered significant industry support, making it a potential dark horse as an odd Best Picture choice come March. Meanwhile, Wicked enjoys strong critical acclaim and some of the year’s best audience scores, positioning it as a feel-good contender with sleeper potential.
At the moment however, I still believe Anora, Conclave, and The Brutalist seem best positioned to take home the top prize. The race remains wide open, with critics’ groups spreading accolades across various categories, but to my eye these three have the current clearest path forward. Anora leads in critics’ awards and is the early favorite for the Critics’ Choice Award. The Brutalist is gaining momentum as more viewers discover it and features the frontrunner for the coveted Best Director prize. Conclave has quietly secured nominations in all major categories in all the major groups, making it a likable enough candidate for a surprise win through a broad guild push.
In contrast, some early frontrunners are now fighting just to secure nominations. Dune: Part Two and Sing Sing, once considered the movies to beat back in the spring, have lost steam at a critical time. Searchlight Pictures has two contenders, A Complete Unknown and A Real Pain, both of which have performed well in major categories. Meanwhile, The Substance, despite significant wins from three regional critics’ groups, has faltered after a poor showing on the shortlists, likely due to its polarizing body-horror nature.
Several films are on the bubble, vying for a spot in the Academy’s top ten. Nickel Boys, Challengers, and September 5 have secured Best Picture nominations from major groups but aren’t guaranteed slots with the Academy. Nosferatu has gained traction through technical awards, while two international contenders, All We Imagine as Light and The Seed of the Sacred Fig, could benefit from a push by international voters. Altogether, I believe these 16 films appear to be in contention for the coveted slate of ten.
With the shortlists now in hand, I’ve expanded my projections to include every category. Below, you’ll find my personal rankings for each race, based on confidence in each contender’s chances. This will be my final update until the nominations are announced, as the upcoming holiday lull will give way to a hectic January, packed with almost daily major guild nominations and regional critics’ prizes. Expect significant shifts in the next month, but for now, here’s where I believe the awards race stands heading into the new year…
Best Picture: Tilts The Brutalist
– The Predicted Field
01. The Brutalist
02. Anora
03. Conclave
04. Emilia Perez
05. Wicked
06. Dune: Part Two
07. Sing Sing
08. A Complete Unknown
09. A Real Pain
10. The Substance
– “On The Bubble”
11. Nickel Boys
12. Challengers
13. September 5
– Keep An Eye On
14. Nosferatu
15. All We Imagine As Light
16. The Seed Of The Sacred Fig
– Off The Board Since The Last Update: Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga; Gladiator II; Juror #2; The Wild Robot
Best Director: Tilts Corbet
– The Predicted Field
01. Brady Corbet; The Brutalist
02. Sean Baker; Anora
03. Edward Berger; Conclave
04. Jacques Audiard; Emilia Perez
05. Coralie Fargeat; The Substance
– “On The Bubble”
06. Denis Villeneuve; Dune: Part Two
07. Remelle Ross; Nickel Boys
08. Jon M. Chu; Wicked
– Keep An Eye On
09. Payal Kapadia; All We Imagine As Light
10. Mohammad Rasoulof; The Seed Of The Sacred Fig
11. Robert Eggers; Nosferatu
– Off The Board Since The Last Update: Greg Kwedar (Sing Sing); James Mangold (A Complete Unknown); Walter Salles (I’m Still Here); Ridley Scott (Gladiator II)
Best Actor: Tilts Brody
– The Predicted Field
01. Adrien Brody; The Brutalist
02. Ralph Fiennes; Conclave
03. Colman Domingo; Sing Sing
04. Timothee Chalamet; A Complete Unknown
05. Daniel Craig; Queer
– “On The Bubble”
06. Jesse Eisenberg; A Real Pain
07. Hugh Grant; Heretic
08. Sebastian Stan; The Apprentice
– Keep An Eye On
09. Sebastian Stan; A Different Man
10. Glen Powell; Hit Man
11. Kingsley Ben-Adir; Bob Marley: One Love
– Off The Board Since The Last Update: Nicholas Hoult (Juror #2); Paul Mescal (Gladiator II); Jesse Plemons (Kinds Of Kindness); John David Washington (The Piano Lesson)
Best Actress: Tilts Madison
– The Predicted Field
01. Mikey Madison; Anora
02. Karla Sofia Gascon; Emilia Perez
03. Cynthia Erivo; Wicked
04. Angelina Jolie; Maria
05. Demi Moore; The Substance
– “On The Bubble”
06. Marianne Jean-Baptiste; Hard Truths
07. Nicole Kidman; Babygirl
08. Kate Winslet; Lee
– Keep An Eye On
09. Fernanda Torres; I’m Still Here
10. Tilda Swinton; The Room Next Door
11. Amy Adams; Nightbitch
– Off The Board Since The Last Update: Pamela Anderson (The Last Showgirl); Julianne Moore (The Room Next Door); Saoirse Ronan (The Outrun); Zendaya (Challengers)
Best Supporting Actor: Tilts Culkin
– The Predicted Field
01. Kieran Culkin; A Real Pain
02. Guy Pearce; The Brutalist
03. Yura Borisov; Anora
04. Clarence Maclin; Sing Sing
05. Denzel Washington; Gladiator II
– “On The Bubble”
06. Edward Norton; A Complete Unknown
07. Stanley Tucci; Conclave
08. Jeremy Strong; The Apprentice
– Keep An Eye On
09. Jonathan Bailey; Wicked
10. Mark Eydelshteyn; Anora
11. Adam Pearson; A Different Man
– Off The Board Since The Last Update: Austin Butler (Dune: Part Two); Brian Tyree Henry (The Fire Inside); Samuel L. Jackson (The Piano Lesson); John Lithgow; Conclave
Best Supporting Actress: Tilts Saldana
– The Predicted Field
01. Zoe Saldana; Emilia Perez
02. Ariana Grande; Wicked
03. Isabella Rossellini; Conclave
04. Margaret Qualley; The Substance
05. Felicity Jones; The Brutalist
– “On The Bubble”
06. Selena Gomez; Emilia Perez
07. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor; Nickel Boys
08. Danielle Deadwyler; The Piano Lesson
– Keep An Eye On
09. Natasha Lyonne; His Three Daughters
10. Monica Barbaro; A Complete Unknown
11. Elle Fanning; A Complete Unknown
– Off The Board Since The Last Update: Joan Chen (Didi); Toni Collette (Juror #2) Saoirse Ronan (Blitz); Zendaya (Dune: Part Two)
Best Original Screenplay: Tilts Anora
– The Predicted Field
01. Anora
02. The Brutalist
03. A Real Pain
04. The Substance
05. His Three Daughters
– “On The Bubble”
06. Hard Truths
07. Challengers
08. September 5
– Keep An Eye On
09. Saturday Night
10. A Different Man
11. The Seed Of The Sacred Fig
– Off The Board Since The Last Update: Babygirl; Blitz; Didi; Juror #2
Best Adapted Screenplay: Tilts Conclave
– The Predicted Field
01. Conclave
02. Sing Sing
03. Nickel Boys
04. Emilia Perez
05. Dune: Part Two
– “On The Bubble”
06. Wicked
07. The Piano Lesson
08. A Complete Unknown
– Keep An Eye On
09. Queer
10. The Room Next Door
11. The Wild Robot
– Off The Board Since The Last Update: Hit Man; I’m Still Here; Nightbitch; Nosferatu
Best Animated Feature: Tilts The Wild Robot
– The Predicted Field
01. The Wild Robot
02. Flow
03. Inside Out 2
04. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
05. Memoir Of A Snail
– “On The Bubble”
06. Ultraman: Rising
07. Moana 2
08. Kung Fu Panda 4
– Keep An Eye On
09. Transformers One
10. The Lord Of The Rings: The War Of The Rohirrim
11. Piece By Piece
– Off The Board Since The Last Update: N/A
Best Animated Short: Tilts A Bear Named Wojtek
– The Predicted Field
01. A Bear Named Wojtek
02. Beautiful Men
03. Yuck!
04. Wander To Wonder!
05. In The Shadow Of The Cypress
– Other Shortlisted Films: A Crab In The Pool; Au Revoir Mon Monde; Bottle George; Maybe Elephants; Magic Candies; Me; Origami; Percebes; The 21; The Wild-Tempered Cavier
Best International Feature: Tilts Emilia Perez
– The Predicted Field
01. Emilia Perez
02. Flow
03. The Seed Of The Sacred Fig
04. I’m Still Here
05. Vermiglio
– “On The Bubble”
06. Dahomey
07. Kneecap
08. How To Make Millions Before Grandma Dies
09. The Girl With The Needle
10. Armand
11. Santosh
12. Waves
13. From Ground Zero
14. Universal Language
15. Touch
– Off The Board Since The Last Update: Not possible, because this category’s nominations are decided through a shortlist of 15 finalists
Best Live Action Short: Tilts The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent
– The Predicted Field
01. The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent
02. Anuja
03. The Masterpiece
04. Dovecote
05. An Orange From Jaffa
– Other Shortlisted Films: A Lien; Clodagh; Crust; Edge Of Space; I’m Not A Robot; Room Taken; Paris 70; The Compatriot; The Ice Cream Man; The Last Ranger
Best Documentary Feature: Tilts No Other Land
– The Predicted Field
01. No Other Land
02. Dahomey
03. Sugarcane
04. Will & Harper
05. Soundtrack To A Coup d’Etat
– “On The Bubble”
06. The Bibi Files
07. Porcelain War
08. Black Box Diaries
09. Daughters
10. The Remarkable Life Of Ibelin
11. Union
12. Queendom
13. Hollywoodgate
14. Eno
15. Frida
– Off The Board Since The Last Update: Not possible, because this category’s nominations are decided through a shortlist of 15 finalists
Best Documentary Short: Tilts I Am Ready, Warren
– The Predicted Field
01. I Am Ready, Warren
02. Incident
03. Chasing Roo
04. Once Upon A Time In Ukraine
05. Makayla’s Voice: A Letter To The World
– Other Shortlisted Films: A Swim Lesson; Death By Numbers; Eternal Father; Instruments Of A Beating Heart; Planetwalker; Keeper; Until He’s Back; Seat 31: Zoey Zephyr; The Only Girl In The Orchestra; The Quilters
Best Original Song: Tilts “Kiss The Sky”; The Wild Robot
– The Predicted Field
01. “Kiss The Sky”; The Wild Robot
02. “Mi Camino”; Emilia Perez
03. “El Mal”; Emilia Perez
04. “Like A Bird”; Sing Sing
05. “The Journey”; The Six Triple Eight
– “On The Bubble”
06. “Harper And Will Go West”; Will And Harper
07. “Compress Repress”; Challengers
08. “Beyond”; Moana 2
09. “Tell Me It’s You”; Mufasa: The Lion King
10. “Piece By Piece”; Piece By Piece
11. “Sick In The Head”; Kneecap
12. “Winter Coat”; Blitz
13. “Out Of Oklahoma”; Twisters
14. “Never Too Late”; Elton John: Never Too Late
– Off The Board Since The Last Update: Not possible, because this category’s nominations are decided through a shortlist of 15 finalists
Best Original Score: Tilts The Brutalist
– The Predicted Field
01. The Brutalist
02. Conclave
03. Emilia Perez
04. Challengers
05. The Wild Robot
– “On The Bubble”
06. Wicked
07. Sing Sing
08. Nosferatu
09. Gladiator II
10. Blitz
11. Alien: Romulus
12. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice
13. The Room Next Door
14. Babygirl
15. Inside Out 2
16. Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 1
17. Young Woman And The Sea
18. Blink Twice
19. The Fire Inside
20. The Six Triple Eight
– Off The Board Since The Last Update: Not possible, because this category’s nominations are decided through a shortlist of 20 finalists
Best Sound: Tilts Dune: Part Two
– The Predicted Field
01. Dune: Part Two
02. Emilia Perez
03. Wicked
04. A Complete Unknown
05. Alien: Romulus
– “On The Bubble”
06. Blitz
07. Gladiator II
08. Deadpool & Wolverine
08. Joker: Folie a Deux
10. The Wild Robot
– Off The Board Since The Last Update: Not possible, because this category’s nominations are decided through a shortlist of 10 finalists
Best Editing: Tilts Dune: Part Two
– The Predicted Field
01. Dune: Part Two
02. The Brutalist
03. Anora
04. Conclave
05. Emilia Perez
– “On The Bubble”
06. September 5
07. Wicked
08. The Substance
– Keep An Eye On
09. Challengers
10. Nickel Boys
11. Saturday Night
– Off The Board Since The Last Update: N/A
Best Cinematography: Tilts The Brutalist
– The Predicted Field
01. The Brutalist
02. Dune: Part Two
03. Conclave
04. Nickel Boys
05. Nosferatu
– “On The Bubble”
06. The Girl With The Needle Emilia Perez
07. Maria
08. Emilia Perez
– Keep An Eye On
09. Wicked
10. The Substance
11. Joker: Folie a Deux
– Off The Board Since The Last Update: N/A
Best Visual Effects: Tilts Dune: Part Two
– The Predicted Field
01. Dune: Part Two
02. Wicked
03. Gladiator II
04. Alien: Romulus
05. Kingdom Of The Planet Of The Apes
– “On The Bubble”
06. Mufasa: The Lion King
07. Deadpool & Wolverine
08. Twisters
09. Better Man
10. Civil War
– Off The Board Since The Last Update: Not possible, because this category’s nominations are decided through a shortlist of 10 finalists
Best Production Design: Tilts Wicked
– The Predicted Field
01. Wicked
02. The Brutalist
03. Conclave
04. Dune: Part Two
05. Gladiator II
– “On The Bubble”
06. Nosferatu
07. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice
08. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga
– Keep An Eye On
09. Emilia Perez
10. Blitz
11. Joker: Folie a Deux
– Off The Board Since The Last Update: N/A
Best Costume Design: Tilts Wicked
– The Predicted Field
01. Wicked
02. Maria
03. Dune: Part Two
04. Gladiator II
05. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice
– “On The Bubble”
06. Nosferatu
07. Conclave
08. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga
– Keep An Eye On
09. Blitz
10. Saturday Night
11. Joker: Folie a Deux
– Off The Board Since The Last Update: N/A
Best Hair & Makeup: Tilts The Substance
– The Predicted Field
01. The Substance
02. Emilia Perez
03. Wicked
04. Dune: Part Two
05. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice
– “On The Bubble”
06. Nosferatu
07. Maria
08. The Apprentice
09. A Different Man
10. Walzing With Brando
– Off The Board Since The Last Update: Not possible, because this category’s nominations are decided through a shortlist of 10 finalists
