97th Oscars Projections: Post AFI/NBR & HCA Nominations Outlook
In just six weeks, the nominations for the 97th Academy Awards will be announced. Since the Oppenheimer team celebrated their big night at the last Oscars’ ceremony, the race for this year’s awards have been wide open. Initially, Dune: Part Two seemed like the film to beat, but Sing Sing claimed the spotlight in the late summer. Festival season then brought a clash between the immigrant period epic The Brutalist and the bold, R-rated sex comedy Anora for frontrunner status. Now, with the first month since election day behind us, the awards landscape feels like a “fog of war,” as we await to see which film emerges as the favorite. Are voters wanting to send a message or feel good or maybe a little of both?
Across Los Angeles and New York, Q&A screenings are in full swing, actors and actresses are attending roundtables, and studios are flooding industry folks’ with promotional material about their movies winning awards or making “Best of” lists. The Hollywood Creative Alliance recently unveiled nominations for their Astra Film Awards, while the New York Film Critics Circle named The Brutalist Best Feature. Meanwhile, the National Board of Review revealed their best films list while also crowning Wicked as the best film of the year, and the American Film Institute released its annual top 10 list. This weekend the Astra Film Awards will take place. Next week, we’ll see nominations from both the Golden Globes and Critics Choice Association, while winners from the Los Angeles Film Critics Association will be unveiled, and winner and nomination announcements from smaller regional guilds will start to pour in. We’re officially in the thick of awards season.
The Best Picture race is one of the most unpredictable in years. The Brutalist and Anora remain strong contenders, while Conclave has steadily gained momentum as a box-office success. Sing Sing is experiencing a resurgence with glowing Academy member screenings and an upcoming theatrical re-release next month. Meanwhile, Dune: Part Two and Emilia Perez have lost steam though the latter enjoyed a big showing at the European Film Awards, leaving room for Wicked, a massive hit with exceptional audience scores, to rise in the ranks.
In the Best Director race, early standouts Brady Corbet (The Brutalist) and Ramell Ross (Nickel Boys) got a nice start, but some observers were jolted by Jon M. Chu’s surprise win with the National Board of Review. In Best Actor, Adrian Brody, Ralph Fiennes, and Colman Domingo lead a tight three-way contest; while Best Actress is wide open, with Mikey Madison’s breakthrough performance currently slightly edging out veteran Angelina Jolie who has been underperforming so far. Kieran Culkin and Clarence Maclin are locked in a battle for Supporting Actor, while Supporting Actress features a musical showdown between Zoe Saldana and Ariana Grande, with Grande gaining incredible momentum of late for her role as Glinda in Wicked but Saldana having that industry respect for her dramatic turn in Emilia Perez. Both Screenplay categories remain equally chaotic.
Below, I’ve shared my current post AFI/NBR/HCA projections for the eight major “above-the-line” categories. With the campaign season heating up as much as it will in the next few weeks, I’ll provide weekly updates throughout December. Once the Oscars announce their shortlists, expect predictions from me for nearly every category by year’s end. The countdown to Oscar nominations morning is officially underway!
Best Picture: Tilts The Brutalist
– The Predicted Field
01. The Brutalist
02. Anora
03. Conclave
04. Sing Sing
05. Dune: Part Two
06. Emilia Perez
07. Wicked
08. Nickel Boys
09. A Real Pain
10. A Complete Unknown
– “On The Bubble”
11. The Wild Robot
12. The Substance
13. Challengers
14. Gladiator II
15. September 5
– Keep An Eye On
16. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga
17. Juror #2
18. The Seed Of The Sacred Fig
19. The Room Next Door
20. Nosferatu
– Off The Board Since The Last Update: Blitz; Queer; Saturday Night; The Apprentice; The Piano Lesson
Best Director: Tilts Corbet
– The Predicted Field
01. Brady Corbet; The Brutalist
02. Sean Baker; Anora
03. Edward Berger; Conclave
04. Denis Villeneuve; Dune: Part Two
05. Remelle Ross; Nickel Boys
– “On The Bubble”
06. Jacques Audiard; Emilia Perez
07. Mohammad Rasoulof; The Seed Of The Sacred Fig
08. Jon M. Chu; Wicked
09. Coralie Fargeat; The Substance
10. Greg Kwedar; Sing Sing
– Keep An Eye On
11. Pedro Almodovar; The Room Next Door
12. Walter Salles; I’m Still Here
13. Payal Kapadia; All We Imagine As Light
14. Ridley Scott; Gladiator II
15. Robert Eggers; Nosferatu
– Off The Board Since The Last Update: N/A
Best Actor: Tilts Brody
– The Predicted Field
01. Adrien Brody; The Brutalist
02. Ralph Fiennes; Conclave
03. Colman Domingo; Sing Sing
04. Timothee Chalamet; A Complete Unknown
05. Daniel Craig; Queer
– “On The Bubble”
06. Jesse Eisenberg; A Real Pain
07. Nicholas Hoult; Juror #2
08. Glen Powell; Hit Man
09. Kingsley Ben-Adir; Bob Marley: One Love
10. John David Washington; The Piano Lesson
– Keep An Eye On
11. Paul Mescal; Gladiator II
12. Timothee Chalamet; Dune: Part Two
13. Sebastian Stan; The Apprentice
14. Sebastian Stan; A Different Man
15. Jesse Plemons; Kinds Of Kindness
– Off The Board Since The Last Update: N/A
Best Actress: Tilts Madison
– The Predicted Field
01. Mikey Madison; Anora
02. Angelina Jolie; Maria
03. Karla Sofia Gascon; Emilia Perez
04. Cynthia Erivo; Wicked
05. Marianne Jean-Baptiste; Hard Truths
– “On The Bubble”:
06. Demi Moore; The Substance
07. Nicole Kidman; Babygirl
08. Kate Winslet; Lee
09. Fernanda Torres; I’m Still Here
10. Tilda Swinton; The Room Next Door
– Keep An Eye On
11. Julianne Moore; The Room Next Door
12. Zendaya; Challengers
13. Amy Adams; Nightbitch
14. Saoirse Ronan; The Outrun
15. Pamela Anderson; The Last Showgirl
– Off The Board Since The Last Update: N/A
Best Supporting Actor: Tilts Culkin
– The Predicted Field
01. Kieran Culkin; A Real Pain
02. Clarence Maclin; Sing Sing
03. Guy Pearce; The Brutalist
04. Yura Borisov; Anora
05. Denzel Washington; Gladiator II
– “On The Bubble”
06. Stanley Tucci; Conclave
07. Edward Norton; A Complete Unknown
08. Mark Eydelshteyn; Anora
09. Jonathan Bailey; Wicked
10. John Lithgow; Conclave
– Keep An Eye On
11. Brian Tyree Henry; The Fire Inside
12. Samuel L. Jackson; The Piano Lesson
13. Austin Butler; Dune: Part Two
14. Adam Pearson; A Different Man
15. Jeremy Strong; The Apprentice
– Off The Board Since The Last Update: N/A
Best Supporting Actress: Tilts Saldana
– The Predicted Field
01. Zoe Saldana; Emilia Perez
02. Ariana Grande; Wicked
03. Isabella Rossellini; Conclave
04. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor; Nickel Boys
05. Selena Gomez; Emilia Perez
– “On The Bubble”
06. Felicity Jones; The Brutalist
07. Danielle Deadwyler; The Piano Lesson
08. Margaret Qualley; The Substance
09. Natasha Lyonne; His Three Daughters
10. Elle Fanning; A Complete Unknown
– Keep An Eye On
11. Monica Barbaro; A Complete Unknown
12. Toni Collette; Juror #2
13. Zendaya; Dune: Part Two
14. Saoirse Ronan; Blitz
15. Joan Chen; Didi
– Off The Board Since The Last Update: N/A
Best Original Screenplay: Tilts Anora
– The Predicted Field
01. Anora
02. The Brutalist
03. A Real Pain
04. Hard Truths
05. His Three Daughters
– “On The Bubble”
06. Challengers
07. The Substance
08. September 5
09. Juror #2
10. Saturday Night
– Keep An Eye On
11. The Seed Of The Sacred Fig
12. Babygirl
13. A Different Man
14. Didi
15. Blitz
– Off The Board Since The Last Update: N/A
Best Adapted Screenplay: Tilts Sing Sing
– The Predicted Field
01. Sing Sing
02. Conclave
03. Nickel Boys
04. Dune: Part Two
05. Emilia Perez
– “On The Bubble”
06. Wicked
07. The Wild Robot
08. The Piano Lesson
09. Hit Man
10. The Room Next Door
– Keep An Eye On
11. Queer
12. Nosferatu
13. Nightbitch
14. A Complete Unknown
15. I’m Still Here
– Off The Board Since The Last Update: N/A
