Lone Star Rising

Graphic by See page for author, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons

We’ve come a really long way since the Blue Wall. The Blue Wall, if you recall, was the near-insurmountable electoral college advantage the Democrats enjoyed that assured victory forevermore.

It lasted less than a decade, but in truth it was always illusory. States come and states go. Demographic change is predictive until it isn’t. We should keep that in mind for everything I am about to say.

When I say “we’re a long way” from the Blue Wall, I refer not only to the fact that it crumbled in 2016, but how eight years later we’re looking at an election where Democrats are scrambling to win states that were supposed to be behind the wall. Harris has a good chance with the purplification of Georgia and Arizona, but of the five most swing states she needs to win three and she’s struggling to do so against an aging, disgraced former president.

Gun to head, I currently predict that she will win Arizona, Georgia, and Michigan, and will lose Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. I mention this not to put chips on the table, but because this produces a 274-264 win.

The 2030 reapportionment of congressional seats and EC votes is projected to lead to big changes.

States where Trump currently leads could together gain 13 seats, whereas states where Harris leads could together lose 13 seats. (Another forecast puts the number at 14.) pic.twitter.com/NjL823SvAd

— Stefan Schubert (@StefanFSchubert) October 13, 2024

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And at current trajectory, in 2032 it will no longer be enough. Due to the 2030 census, almost every state gaining population is either red or purple and almost every state losing population is blue or purple. Democrats will have to win not one, but two of the three midwestern states of Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. In addition to winning Arizona and Georgia. Or to put it another way, the Democratic nominee would have to win almost every single swing state.

Or they will have to win Texas.

Theoretically both North Carolina and especially Florida could also singularly move the election, but Texas alone will have more than 50% of the electoral weight of the main five swing states. Texas currently has 40 electoral votes, but that is set to become 44. Only six shy of California. While the path to victory without Texas is narrow for Democrats, the path to victory to Republicans becomes nearly insurmountable. They have to win all five of the current swing states.

I exaggerate only slightly when I say that the future of elections could be both party campaigns basically living in the Lone Star State.

Democrats have had at least one eye on Texas ever since it went red, but it has largely been a matter of pride. Taking away the Republicans largest and most successful state. It wasn’t necessary to win. The time is coming, however, to play for real.

Will they actually be able to compete in Texas? I’ve long been skeptical, but I’m coming around to the idea. One thing the Democrats seem have a better understanding of is that they can’t really win on demographic arguments. In the past, the growing Latino population was seen as likely to cause an inevitable drift in Texas and elsewhere. To some degree it has happened in Arizona, but Florida has moved in the opposite direction. Texas Latinos tend to be more conservative than most states and a lot of them seem uninterested in solidarity with illegal immigrants and asylum-seekers from Central America. What has mostly opened my mind to it is Georgia, with which Texas has a lot in common and which moved between 2016 and 2020 roughly the same distance as would be needed to make Texas truly competitive.

On the other hand, Texas has remained stubborn. Democrats have been targeting it forever and it has only moved somewhat and the biggest movements have occurred with Trump on the ballot. Trump is not popular there for a Republican and it’s not difficult to imagine the politics of Texas reverting to the mean once he is gone.

The good news for Democrats is that Texas lines up neatly with states recently won (Arizona and Georgia) and potential fallback states (North Carolina and Florida) should Texas stick red. They’re all increasingly diverse states with large black or Latino populations and more educated transplants moving in. So other than campaign expenditures, campaigning in Texas shouldn’t come at the expense of other states.

Predictions are hard, especially when about the future. Georgia wasn’t on anyone’s radar until it was. Maybe there is another state waiting in the wings, but the only two Trump states that were closer in 2020 were North Carolina (which has substantially fewer electoral votes) and Florida (trending in the wrong direction). It’s also possible that without Trump on the ticket the Republicans lose their newfound strength in the Great Lakes region and the possibility of holding on to Wisconsin-Michigan-Pennsylvania doesn’t seem so challenging.

But Texas, potentially with 44 electoral college votes, looks to cast a shadow over everything else. We haven’t had a top two state competitive in a competitive election since 1976, which was an era with a much larger electoral college map with many more moving parts.

Nobody may know what tomorrow brings, but Democrats might want to start fitting themselves in ten gallon hats.