97th Oscars Projections: The Post Fall Festivals Outlook For The Best Picture Race

Feels like forever ago, back in the Spring, that I first looked at the Best Picture race for the 97th Academy Awards. My theory at the time was that, thanks to the delays caused by last year’s strikes, that we were probably in for a weaker year for film, and thus the race would be more wide-open than last year’s very static campaign. Now as we finish up with the last of the major fall film festivals in New York, and with the onslaught of awards screenings and events for critics and industry professionals around the corner, the year in film is indeed weak, and the campaign for the biggest prize in the industry is indeed wide-open as we enter mid-October.

Back in April and May I had Dune: Part Two as the movie to beat, in August I had Sing Sing as the frontrunner, and last month I had The Brutalist as the favorite. In mid-October, I remain of the opinion that Brady Corbet’s epic three-and-a-half hour immigrant-saga is the movie that will likely take the top prize. But I’m about as confident at that as I was in the Spring about Dune‘s sequel winning – not much. Unlike most years, we are not leaving the fall festivals with everyone in near-universal agreement on what is the movie to beat.

The plurality choice among many is Sean Baker’s Anora, about an escort’s mad-dash marriage with a Russian oligarch’s younger son; which I have now placed as the #2 movie on my board of contenders. The Sci-Fi box office hit Dune: Part Two comes in third place; the festival darling and international musical Emilia Perez is now in fourth place as talk starts of potentially having our first trans-actress nominee; and rounding out the top five is Conclave, a film about the election of the Pope released right before a pivotal election here in the U.S. In sixth place is Saturday Night, a comedic take on the ninety-minute lead up to the first ever episode of ‘Saturday Night Live’ – in time for the show’s 50th anniversary. Those top six are the nominees I am most confident in getting in.

The last four slots I currently believe are more of a jump ball than others might argue. Steve McQueen’s newest film, Blitz, about the London blitz and its effect on citizens during World War II, was met with “good, but not amazing” reactions from its two festival premieres in London and then in New York. Thus, its on the border of still sneaking into the race, but typically to get into Best Picture you need a lot of passion and support for any one contender. The prisoner-drama Sing Sing comes in eight, still reeling from having a big drop in attention during the waning Summer months – though talk is A24 will be re-launching its awards campaign soon. Nickel Boys comes in at number nine; on paper its themes on social justice might do great with like-minded voters, but its POV style of storytelling and tough subject matter make it in danger of falling off. And in tenth is Gladiator II which has shot up to the board as the likely second major populist contender after the second ‘Joker’ film flopped on its face, at launch. While I’d predict all four of these to get in, as of today, I could see a world I’m not predicting any of them to make it in come nominations’ morning.

So what’s “on the bubble” to potentially get in? I’d keep an eye on the upcoming Bob Dylan biopic A Complete Unknown; or the timely-story of how sports media had to cover the horrific 1972 Munich massacre in September 5; or The Wild Robot, which could end up ending an over decade-long trend of no animated films getting in for the big prize; or there’s Wicked which just had big pre-sale tickets’ news in its favor, and could ride a couple tech and crafts noms to sneaking into the final slot; or there’s A Real Pain, which has surged as more positive buzz surrounds that movie. The Piano Lesson remains a longshot though it’s no longer in my predicted ten; both Luca Guadagnino films from the year in Queer and Challengers still have a path to get in; Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga remains super popular with critics and they might push it to become a major contender; and The Substance has somehow maintained buzz as more audiences start to get their eyeballs on the horror hit.

When it comes to outside shots that I think still have a very slim path – I’d point to horror remake Nosferatu, the motherhood genre film of Nightbitch, Clint Eastwood’s final film in Juror #2, the AFI-premiering Here, and the potentially prickly controversy that could surround Trump bio-pic The Apprentice.

That last film I mentioned also brings me to one last point for readers to chew on. This will be my final projections update for the Oscars until we know the election results in early November; those results can absolutely shake up the Best Picture race. The Academy and us critics are human, and as a collective awards voters are very anti-Trump and very pro social-justice regardless of the industry’s own hypocrisies around certain subjects. There is a case to be made that Trump’s 2016 win allowed Moonlight to surge past La La Land or even for Zootopia to top Moana; and that his 2020 loss ended any chance for The Trial Of The Chicago 7 to surpass Nomadland or lead voters to pick a happy-feel-good documentary in My Octopus Teacher over a myriad of social justice docs that year. If Harris wins, it could hurt the chances of a movie like The Apprentice if voters want to be rid talking about Trump; or it could make voters want something feel-good and populist. If Trump wins, it could hurt any chance of a movie like Anora or Saturday Night to win when something that has something to say like Emilia Perez (Trans and female issues) or The Brutalist (Immigration) or Nickle Boys (Social justice) or Sing Sing (Prison reform) could be there for voters instead. November 5’s outcome could really shape the contorts of a wide-open race for Best Picture. Because even the battle for golden statues allows politics to play a hand in it.

 

Tier 1: The Post Fall Festivals’ Heavyweight Contenders

01. The Brutalist (+0 Since The Last Update)

02. Anora (+3 Since The Last Update)

03. Dune: Part Two (-1 Since The Last Update)

04. Emilia Perez (+2 Since The Last Update)

05. Conclave (-1 Since The Last Update)

06. Saturday Night (+1 Since The Last Update)

07. Blitz (-4 Since The Last Update)

08. Sing Sing (+0 Since The Last Update)

09. Nickel Boys (+1 Since The Last Update)

10. Gladiator II (+4 Since The Last Update)

 

Tier 2: The Post Fall Festivals’ “On The Bubble” Contenders

11. A Complete Unknown (+1 Since The Last Update)

12. September 5 (+1 Since The Last Update)

13. The Wild Robot (+3 Since The Last Update)

14. Wicked (+1 Since The Last Update)

15. A Real Pain (+9 Since The Last Update)

16. The Piano Lesson (-7 Since The Last Update)

17. Queer (+0 Since The Last Update)

18. Challengers (+0 Since The Last Update)

19. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (+0 Since The Last Update)

20. The Substance (+1 Since The Last Update)

 

Tier 3: The Post Fall Festivals’ Contenders Within Striking Distance

21. Nosferatu (+1 Since The Last Update)

22. Nightbitch (+1 Since The Last Update)

23. Juror #2 (+2 Since The Last Update)

24. Here (+2 Since The Last Update)

25. The Apprentice (+5 Since The Last Update)

 

Off The Board Since The Last Update (For Now?): Flow; Joker: Folie à Deux; The Life Of Chuck (Moved To 2025); The Room Next Door; The Seed Of A Sacred Fig