97th Oscars Projections: The Pre-Fall Festivals Outlook For The Best Picture Race

Seven and a half months into the year in movies and us film critics are at the mercy of hoping the last quarter of the year will deliver much better films than we’ve gotten so far. Thanks to last year’s strike delays, 2024 for film has had a little something for everyone, but also a lot more duds or good but yet underwhelming movies for many out there. Based on critics polls and letterboxd lists that I keep up with, I’d say four films as of this writing have emerged to become the most beloved and popularly ranked. Those films are Sing Sing, Dune: Part Two, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, and Challengers. The former two being favored to get nominated for Best Picture at the Oscars, and the latter two being seen as outsiders looking in if (and it’s a big if) the fall festival offerings live up to the hype.

At this point last year “Barbenheimer” fever had catapulted Oppenheimer into frontrunner status and it would end up never giving it up. Two years ago the thinking was the race could be down to Babylon versus The Fabelmans as eventual winner Everything Everywhere All At Once was steadily climbing the board. Three years ago eventual winner CODA was seen as fading on arrival as attention would eventually turn to a Belfast versus The Power Of The Dog race coming out of the fall festivals. Four years ago Mank was still seen as the movie to beat while eventual winner Nomadland was about to sweep the festivals. In other words, we enter the fall film festivals season not knowing whether our eventual winner is already in the conversation or being overlooked in favor of what will become also-rans. History tells us that it is still too early to know and anything can happen between now and Oscar sunday.

But it’s not just what will win Best Picture that is unclear at this moment, there’s still plenty fog about what will get nominated to begin with. At this point in the year Oscarologists likely have near-half or more movies in their predicted ten that will end up fading down the stretch or implode on arrival because of a bad first impression. There’s likely a movie or two nowhere near my radar going into the festivals that will make a push of getting into the race as well (i.e: American Fiction last year).  Last year saw an incredibly static race that barely moved and I believe this year will be a much more fluid one.

So with so much up in the air, and the awards race about to crank up to another level with the upcoming festivals, where do I think the Best Picture race stands at the moment? Well I’m counting on the festival films to deliver for the most part, but i’m not quite sure if we’ll see a film escape the festivals as the clear frontrunner. Last year no movie pulled that off, but it does tend to happen. Because I can’t figure out what will capture festival audiences’ hearts I am currently of the belief the race is between the big box office movie in Dune: Part Two and the small intimate critical darling in Sing Sing. I’ve had the former as the favorite since the last ceremony ended, but I am now of the belief the latter has taken the pole position.

A third Dune film is still to come, and I can see voters telling themselves they can wait for that movie to award the achievement Denis Villenueve has accomplished. And with the election campaign stirring a lot of messaging and narratives in voters minds, I can see this being one of those years the Academy gets behind the little movie that could with a message (like they did with Moonlight). Sing Sing hasn’t released wide as I write this, I haven’t even seen it myself and I’m an actual film critic, but with each theatre expansion the word of mouth is growing about the crowd pleaser and its become a popular pick among many as their favorite of the year.

But if the festival films deliver and one of them leaves the big audience darling, that could hurt Sing Sing which is trying to be a small movie that relies on word of mouth over a long period of time. That strategy helped Past Lives last year, but that movie barely got in after it started fading with industry voters. Going into the festivals I’d say Blitz, Conclave, Anora, Emilia Perez, The Piano Lesson, The Nickel Boys, and Queer are the ones that I expect to make a big splash.

I’d also note that until the 2021 season, we had been on a long streak of the eventual winner screening at a fall film festival; but CODA was screened at the start of the year at Sundance and then Everything Everywhere All At Once was screened in the Spring at the South by Southwest film festival in Austin. And just last year Oppenheimer became the first winner since The Departed not to screen at any of the festivals to begin with. That should make me more bullish on a fall festival player not winning it all, but I do wonder if that just means we’re getting overdue for the old rule to return – though Sing Sing did screen at some festivals earlier this year.

If most of the fall festival films falter though, we could be in a situation like we saw two years ago when such an event allowed a more populist slate of contenders to rise up. In that case you have to consider potential big IP box office hits that ride a handful of craft and tech nominations to a Best Picture nomination. I’m talking Joker: Folie à Deux, Gladiator II, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, or maybe even Wicked. That would also give a big opening to first half of the year cinephile favorites like Challengers or Didi to get into the conversation.

There’s also the matter of other films that could climb the board if most of the festival films don’t deliver. Nosferatu, Nightbitch, His Three Daughters, or an animated contender could emerge to fill the void. There’s also the stunning decision by Searchlight Pictures to quickly get A Complete Unknown, a Bob Dylan biopic just filmed earlier this year, out to theatres right smack in the middle of awards season.

It’s the calm before the storm when it comes to movies positioning themselves. If the Spring and the Summer blockbuster season were the training camps, the fall film festivals are the draft. Once the festivals are over, we’ll know for sure what kind of slate of contenders we’ll be seeing compete for the big prize. Will it be a battle between small critical darlings, or populist films, or even a mix of both? Will a movie win over audiences enough to leave the festivals the new frontrunner? All these questions will just have to wait to be answered weeks from now as Telluride, Toronto, Venice, and eventually New York all have their celebration of new films. Next time I update my projections, the fog should have cleared much more for what films we’ll be seeing duke it out next March.

Below you’ll find my board of films that I have my eye on making it into the Best Picture race. The board has shrunk down to thirty films via six tiers based on my confidence of either them getting into the slate of ten nominees or whether they could go all the way and have their cast and crew up on stage to close out the next Oscars ceremony. Based on past experience I’m expecting a lot of this to get shaken up in the coming weeks.

 

Tier 1: The Pre Fall Festivals Frontrunners

01. Sing Sing (+2 Since The Last Update)

02. Dune: Part Two (-1 Since The Last Update)

03. Blitz (-1 Since The Last Update)

04. Conclave (+0 Since The Last Update)

05. Anora (+3 Since The Last Update)

 

Tier 2: The Pre Fall Festivals Heavyweight Contenders

06. Emilia Perez (+3 Since The Last Update)

07. The Piano Lesson (-1 Since The Last Update)

08. The Nickle Boys (-3 Since The Last Update)

09. Queer (-2 Since The Last Update)

10. A Complete Unknown (New Addition To The Board Since The Last Update)

 

Tier 3: The Pre Fall Festivals “On The Bubble” Serious Contenders

11. Joker: Folie à Deux (-1 Since The Last Update)

12. Gladiator II (+0 Since The Last Update)

13. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (-2 Since The Last Update)

14. Wicked (-1 Since The Last Update)

15. Challengers (-1 Since The Last Update)

 

Tier 4: The Pre Fall Festivals Contenders On The Verge Of Being Taken Serious

16. Didi (+2 Since The Last Update)

17. Nosferatu (+15 Since The Last Update)

18. Nightbitch (+15 Since The Last Update)

19. A Real Pain (+5 Since The Last Update)

20. His Three Daughters (-3 Since The Last Update)

 

Tier 5: The Pre Fall Festivals Contenders Within Striking Distance

21. The Seed Of A Sacred Fig (+4 Since The Last Update)

22. Maria (+5 Since The Last Update)

23. The Room Next Door (-2 Since The Last Update)

24. Saturday Night (Returning To The Board After Confirmation Of A 2024 Release)

25. The Brutalist (New Addition To The Board Since The Last Update)

 

Tier 6: The Pre Fall Festivals Long Shots With A Slim Path

26. Here (-6 Since The Last Update)

27. Civil War (+8 Since The Last Update)

28. The Substance (+6 Since The Last Update)

29. The Wild Robot (+9 Since The Last Update)

30. Flow (New Addition To The Board Since The Last Update)

 

Off The Board Since The Last Update (For Now?): A Different Man; Exhibiting Forgiveness; Horizon: An American Saga; Inside Out 2; Juror No. 2; Kinds Of Kindness; Mufasa: The Lion King; Parthenope; The Apprentice; The Bikeriders; The End; The Lord Of The Rings: The War Of Rohirrim; The Outrun; Twisters