97th Oscars Projections: The Post-Cannes Outlook For The Best Picture Race

Two months ago, when I sat down to write about my initial outlook for the next Academy Awards’ Best Picture race, I was taken aback over how wide open and non-buzzy the race seem to be. This was coming off the back of industry strikes that delayed major projects, film festivals such as Sundance and South By Southwest that left some wanting, and the conversation gobbled up by the critical and financial high that Dune: Part Two was enjoying. Flash forward to the start of the Summer and the legendary Cannes film festival has come and gone; providing us with a little bit more of a clearer picture on where the race could be headed as we stare down a Summer blockbuster season that will likely have struggles at the box office compared to what ‘Barbenheimer’ pulled off last year. And with new data in, we still have a wide open race surrounded by tons of thick fog.

At the moment Dune: Part Two remains the frontrunner by default. The epic blockbuster Sci-Fi hit stands out as the only true 100% lock of the early season. But at this point in the race movies like Mank, Babylon, or Killers Of The Flower Moon were the ones to beat, and all three of those movies would slip into being “also rans” (Babylon didn’t even get nominated). Even Oppenheimer, which went on to hold on to the top spot from as early as July and all the way into Oscar night, wasn’t ahead at this point in the race. Hell, the next winners of the NBA Finals, Stanley Cup Finals, World Series, Super Bowl, Emmys, Grammys, the Royal Rumble, and elections in the U.S, UK, and Canada will themselves be decided much sooner than this current Oscars season for film will be. Take that as proof on how incredibly early things still are. Plenty time to see Villenueve’s masterpiece slip from frontrunner status barring a 12 Years A Slave start-to-finish run (And even that movie got a major scare at the end from Gravity).

Cannes seemed like a flop through the first-half of the festival. Besides a great reception for Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (One of the best films of the year if you ask me), divisive reviews for premiering films seemed to be the norm – headlined by a disastrous reception for Francis Ford Coppola’s Megalopolis that was so bad, it went from being in my predicted Best Picture 10 to being off the board completely. But the second half of the festival got spicy with standout premieres for international features, including a Spanish musical picked up by Netflix that catapulted itself into the race, Emilia Perez. But the biggest story from the festival came from Sean Baker’s Anora winning the top prize and now perhaps being the independent director’s ticket to his first Oscar nomination. Baker’s movies tend to get very mixed reactions as he loves to examine the fringes of society with dark comedy and unlikable characters, but this might be his first truly accessible film.

Besides Megalopolis, another film I had predicted getting nominated fell off the board altogether – The Supremes At Earl’s All-You-Can-Eat proved to be a lesser movie than we were anticipating and will be dropped on Hulu as a “straight to streamer” rather than the festival audience prize contender I thought it would be. That could be a major help to a crowd pleaser like Sing Sing, which I still think could be the little film that could that surges late as it has been quietly winning audience prizes at smaller festivals before its Summer release. Other potential top-tier contenders I’m keeping an eye on are Apple Studios’ Blitz, Focus Features’ Conclave, MGM’s Nickle Boys, Netflix’s The Piano Lesson, and Queer.

But with the race being so wide open, there is a chance for a 2022-style, more populist slate of contenders. Joker: Folie à Deux could be yet another sequel to a previous Best Picture nominee that joins the race. There’s also the matter of Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga and Gladiator II; which both seem to be on the bubble of getting in with the right perfect storm. I also think folks are way underrating the potential of a path for Wicked to sneak in if the box office, critical praise, and Universal’s campaign all hit at the right time, as it will come out just as awards start getting handed out and industry voters are attending screenings.

Other movies that could be on the cusp include Challengers, The Apprentice, Kinds Of Kindness, His Three Daughters, Didi, or The Bikeriders. I’d also venture to say that there’s a slim, but not impossible path for Twisters to become this year’s Top Gun: Maverick, or for one of the big animation awards contenders to end the fourteen year drought for the medium of a Best Picture nomination. And I do wonder if this could be the year we actually see a horror movie get nominated with some potential paths for Nosferatu or The Substance – the latter getting raves at Cannes.

One last thing I’m keeping mind of is the 2024 Presidential election. As I write this, per polling, former Republican President Donald Trump is arguably a slight favorite to unseat Democratic President Joe Biden. We all know Hollywood is a very blue town and if Trump is re-elected, it could shift voters’ minds to wanting to recognize certain types of films with certain things to say. We saw this back in 2016 when Moonlight surged late over heavy favorite La La Land as voters got behind it as a message towards Trump’s election. However there is the possibility that even if Trump wins they are so worn down and sick and tired of him, that they actually lean towards something that is more escapism and “feel good” in the same way the Russian invasion of Ukraine may have arguably gotten voters behind CODA over the much high-brow The Power Of The Dog back in 2021. Or Biden could still win re-election and perhaps we see a movie like The Apprentice get in as a way for voters to keep shoving it to Trump in the months after election night. Regardless, I think you’d be a fool not to account for it being an election year, and said election being decided in the middle of awards campaign season starting to truly ramp up.

Below I’ve listed what 40 films I currently have on the board as potential Best Picture nominees. I’ve divided them by eight different tiers of contention, but the top two tiers make up my current gun-to-head predictions for what gets nominated come nominations morning. Now that Cannes has chimed in, and we have a whole Summer blockbuster season ahead of us, its best to wait and re-assess where the race is until some time in late August, just before the fall festivals try to shake things up a bit and the election’s impact on the mood of the voters is easier to gage. Until then, lets enjoy the upcoming Summer box office battle.

Tier 1: The Post-Cannes Frontrunners

01. Dune: Part Two (+0 Since The Last Update)

02. Blitz (+1 Since The Last Update)

03. Sing Sing (-1 Since The Last Update)

04. Conclave (+0 Since The Last Update)

05. Nickel Boys (+2 Since The Last Update)

Tier 2: The Post-Cannes Heavyweight Contenders

06. The Piano Lesson (+2 Since The Last Update)

07. Queer (+2 Since The Last Update)

08. Anora (+20 Since The Last Update)

09. Emilia Perez (New Addition To The Board Since The Last Update)

10. Joker: Folie à Deux (+0 Since The Last Update)

Tier 3: The Post-Cannes “On The Bubble” Serious Contenders

11. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (+0 Since The Last Update)

12. Gladiator II (+0 Since The Last Update)

13. Wicked (+0 Since The Last Update)

14. Challengers (+11 Since The Last Update)

15. The Apprentice (+0 Since The Last Update)

Tier 4: The Post-Cannes Longshots On The Verge Of Being Taken Serious

16. Kinds Of Kindness (-2 Since The Last Update)

17. His Three Daughters (-1 Since The Last Update)

18. Didi (+3 Since The Last Update)

19. The Bikeriders (+1 Since The Last Update)

20. Here (-2 Since The Last Update)

Tier 5: The Post-Cannes Longshots Within Striking Distance

21. The Room Next Door (-4 Since The Last Update)

22. Juror No. 2 (-3 Since The Last Update)

23. A Real Pain (-1 Since The Last Update)

24. The End (+11 Since The Last Update)

25. The Seed Of A Sacred Fig (New Addition To The Board Since The Last Update)

Tier 6: The Post-Cannes Contenders With A Slim Path

26. Parthenope (+4 Since The Last Update)

27. Maria (-1 Since The Last Update)

28. The Outrun (-1 Since The Last Update)

29. A Different Man (+2 Since The Last Update)

30. Exhibiting Forgiveness (+2 Since The Last Update)

Tier 7: The Post-Cannes Contenders Searching For A Path

31. Twisters (+10 Since The Last Update)

32. Nosferatu (+7 Since The Last Update)

33. Nightbitch (New Addition To The Board Since The Last Update)

34. The Substance (New Addition To The Board Since The Last Update)

35. Civil War (+1 Since The Last Update)

Tier 8: The Post-Cannes Longest Of Longshots

36. Horizon: An American Saga Chapter 1 Or Horizon: An American Saga Chapter 2 (+6-7 Since The Last Update)

37. The Wild Robot(+8 Since The Last Update)

38. The Lord Of The Rings: The War Of Rohirrim (+6 Since The Last Update)

39. Inside Out 2 (+7 Since The Last Update)

40. Mufasa: The Lion King (+10 Since The Last Update)

Off The Board Since The Last Update: Beetlejuice Beetlejuice; Emmanuelle; Hit Man; I Saw The TV Glow; Kingdom Of The Planet Of The Apes; Megalopolis; Monkey Man; Piece By Piece; SNL 1975; The Fire Inside; The History Of Sound; The Supremes At Earl’s All-You-Can-Eat; We Live In Time