Last Spring, back in late March, I tried my hand at predicting the landscape of the Best Picture race for the 96th Academy Awards. I correctly had four of the eventual nominees in my initial projected ten, and three others within the top twenty. By Labor Day, a consensus started to develop around certain films for what would be the beginning of the most static Picture race I may have ever witnessed in my years of following awards season. Since then I only had to switch out two slots in my projections. Last Tuesday morning I correctly predicted the ten nominees for the biggest prize in movie awards. The first time ever I went ten for ten where as I am usually one or two off. Perhaps it was the strikes, perhaps its the great critical reception for all of these movies, perhaps its the solid audience scores for almost all of them, but the 2023-2024 awards season will forever be known as the year the Best Picture race barely shifted at all as the months passed by – leaving no room for a late surge-er to sneak in.
Even the frontrunner status has been static. Oppenheimer has enjoyed being the leader of the pack since July and it earned a whopping 13 Oscar nominations, one less than the overall record. It won the Golden Globes Picture prize for a Drama, as well as the Best Picture prize at Critics Choice, and It heads into the industry stage of the season favored to win at BAFTA and win with the Directors’ and Producers’ guilds. A win with the Screen Actors’ guild could put the competition away. Can anything stop this juggernaut?
Killers Of The Flower Moon, which was the leader back in March, but since July had been the consistent number two, has started to show some wobbliness with its lead Actress contender missing BAFTA and its Screenplay missing nominations at both BAFTA and the Oscars. Barbie, which started to have a big moment during the critics stage of things with a big upset win at the Hollywood Creative Alliance’s Astra Awards, and was projected as high as number three at one point by me, has shown weakness with its Director missing nominations with BAFTA and the Oscars, not to mention missing the all-important Editing category. American Fiction also feels like it has passionate support but a hard ceiling when it comes to wins. As much as I and many in the industry adore Maestro, its the contender with the worst audience scores. The Zone Of Interest showed some great strength with its nominations haul, but its subject matter will make it only so accessible. Past Lives may have its major boosters but its shown evidence as the weakest of the contenders.
I could be wrong and one of the aforementioned films peaks at the right time, but I currently think only three films could take the nominations leader down. The Holdovers is surging and the industry is lining up behind it as the potential warm crowd pleaser that could do well on a preferential ballot. Also surging is Anatomy Of A Fall which showed such great strength with the industry that its Director ended up being the lone female representative in that category. And then there’s Poor Things which quietly got 11 nominations and won the Golden Globes Picture prize for Comedy/Musical.
Oppenheimer will win DGA on Super Bowl weekend, no doubt about that in my mind. But if it is upset at BAFTA the weekend after by The Holdovers or Anatomy Of A Fall or Poor Things, its beatable. If it wins there then its all about the following weekend when we get results from SAG and PGA. If neither American Fiction or Barbie or even Killers Of The Flower Moon prevail at SAG then it really might be over. Which leaves PGA, which is the only major Best Picture race where a preferential ballot system is used the same way it will be with the Academy, and it just so happens this year all 10 PGA nominees are also the 10 nominees with Oscar.
Aside from the big question in Best Picture as to whether any movie can stop Oppy, the nominations leader is favored in multiple techs while Barbie continues to be favored in Original Song and crafts. Both screenplay races are tossups that could be hard to predict even after we get signals from BAFTA. I still think the latest ‘Spiderverse’ film is the one to beat in the Animated Feature race, and The Zone Of Interest has become the first “safe” lock of the season in International Feature. Visual Effects is a free-for-all where literally all five contenders have a multiverse where they win the prize on Oscar night. As for Best Director, if Nolan wins at DGA and BAFTA as expected, he basically walks into the ceremony with the trophy.
Overall I was able to predict 92 of the 115 nominee slots available across all 23 categories – 76% correct and a personal best for me. Below you’ll find how things look to me as we head into the industry stage of the season and now that all the nominations have been announced for the Oscars and almost every guild out there. Each category has a rating of confidence for me in what I’m picking to win as of today, and nominees are ranked by the likelihood of victory. This will be where I leave things until the week leading up to March 10 after BAFTA and all the guilds have had their say and we head into Oscar night. It’ll be interesting to see how much my projections change or don’t change by then. For the moment the only question is can any movie stop Oppenheimer?
Best Picture: Leans Oppenheimer
– Current Projection:
01. Oppenheimer
02. The Holdovers
03. Anatomy Of A Fall
04. Poor Things
05. Killers Of The Flower Moon
06. Barbie
07. American Fiction
08. Maestro
09. The Zone Of Interest
10. Past Lives
Best Director: Likely Nolan
– Current Projection:
01. Christopher Nolan; Oppenheimer
02. Justine Triet; Anatomy Of A Fall
03. Yorgos Lanthimos; Poor Things
04. Martin Scorsese; Killers Of The Flower Moon
05. Jonathan Glazer; The Zone Of Interest
Best Actor: Tilts Giamatti
– Current Projection:
01. Paul Giamatti; The Holdovers
02. Cillian Murphy; Oppenheimer
03. Bradley Cooper; Maestro
04. Jeffrey Wright; American Fiction
05. Colman Domingo; Rustin
Best Actress: Leans Stone
– Current Projection:
01. Emma Stone; Poor Things
02. Lily Gladstone; Killers Of The Flower Moon
03. Sandra Huller; Anatomy Of A Fall
04. Carey Mulligan; Maestro
05. Annette Benning; Nyad
Best Supporting Actor: Leans Downey J.R
– Current Projection:
01. Robert Downey J.R; Oppenheimer
02. Ryan Gosling; Barbie
03. Robert DeNiro; Killers Of The Flower Moon
04. Mark Ruffalo; Poor Things
05. Sterling K Brown; American Fiction
Best Supporting Actress: Tilts Randolph
– Current Projection:
01. Da’Vine Joy Randolph; The Holdovers
02. Emily Blunt; Oppenheimer
03. Jodi Foster; Nyad
04. Danielle Brooks; The Color Purple
05. America Ferrera; Barbie
Best Original Screenplay: Tilts The Holdovers
– Current Projection:
01. The Holdovers
02. Anatomy Of A Fall
03. Past Lives
04. Maestro
05. May December
Best Adapted Screenplay: Tilts Oppenheimer
– Current Projection:
01. Oppenheimer
02. Barbie
03. Poor Things
04. American Fiction
05. The Zone Of Interest
Best Animated Feature: Leans Spider-Man: Across The Spiderverse
– Current Projection:
01. Spider-Man: Across The Spiderverse
02. The Boy And The Heron
03. Elemental
04. Nimona
05. Robot Dreams
Best Animated Short: Tilts Once Upon A Studio → Tilts Letter To A Pig
– Current Projection:
01. Letter To A Pig
02. War Is Over!
03. Ninety-Five Senses
04. Pachyderme
05. Our Uniform
Best International Feature: Likely The Zone Of Interest → Safe The Zone Of Interest
– Current Projection:
01. The Zone Of Interest
02. Society Of The Snow
03. Perfect Days
04. The Teacher’s Lounge
05. Io Capitano
Best Live Action Short: Tilts The Wonderful Story Of Henry Sugar
– Current Projection:
01. The Wonderful Story Of Henry Sugar
02. The After
03. Red, White, And Blue
04. Knight Of Fortune
05. Invincible
Best Documentary Feature: Tilts American Symphony → Tilts 20 Days In Mariupol
– Current Projection:
01. 20 Days In Mariupol
02. Four Daughters
03. Bobi Wine: The People’s President
04. The Eternal Memory
05. To Kill A Tiger
Best Documentary Short: Tilts The ABCs Of Book Banning
– Current Projection:
01. The ABCs Of Book Banning
02. The Last Repair Shop
03. The Barber Of Little Rock
04. Nai Nai And Wai Po (Grandma And Grandma)
05. Island In Between
Best Original Song: Tilts “What Was I Made For?”
– Current Projection:
01. “What Was I Made For?”; Barbie
02. “I’m Just Ken.” Barbie
03. “The Fire Inside”; Flaming Hot
04. “It Never Went Away”; American Symphony
05. “A Song For My People”; Killers Of The Flower Moon
Best Original Score: Likely Oppenheimer
– Current Projection:
01. Oppenheimer
02. Killers Of The Flower Moon
03. Poor Things
04. American Fiction
05. Indiana Jones And The Dial Of Destiny
Best Sound: Likely Oppenheimer
– Current Projection:
01. Oppenheimer
02. The Zone Of Interest
03. Maestro
04. The Creator
05. Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning
Best Editing: Likely Oppenheimer
– Current Projection:
01. Oppenheimer
02. Killers Of The Flower Moon
03. Anatomy Of A Fall
04. Poor Things
05. The Holdovers
Best Cinematography: Likely Oppenheimer
– Current Projection:
01. Oppenheimer
02. Maestro
03. Poor Things
04. Killers Of The Flower Moon
05. El Conde
Best Visual Effects: Tilts The Creator
– Current Projection:
01. The Creator
02. Godzilla Minus One
03. Napoleon
04. Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning
05. Guardians Of The Galaxy Vol. 3
Best Production Design: Leans Barbie
– Current Projection:
01. Barbie
02. Poor Things
03. Oppenheimer
04. Killers Of The Flower Moon
05. Napoleon
Best Costume Design: Leans Barbie
– Current Projection:
01. Barbie
02. Poor Things
03. Oppenheimer
04. Killers Of The Flower Moon
05. Napoleon
Best Hair & Makeup: Tilts Maestro
– Current Projection:
01. Maestro
02. Poor Things
03. Oppenheimer
04. Society Of The Snow
05. Golda
