“I was once reproved by a minister who was driving a poor beast to some meeting-house horse-sheds among the hills of New Hampshire” wrote Henry David Thoreau, “because I was bending my steps to a mountain-top on the Sabbath, instead of a church, when I would have gone farther than he to hear a true word spoken on that or any day.”
Watching Donald’s good, old fashioned Sermon on Mount Trump on how everyone not enamored with the MAGA beatitudes has sinned and must repent or else threw into sharp relief the pointlessness of horserace primary coverage. This 2024 Primary In Name Only has never been in doubt. The pitiful display of Nikki Haley babbling nonsense about getting “almost half the voters” while Tim Scott played the laughing fool for Trump and second fiddle sidekick to that jackass Vivek – whom Trump actually allowed to speak – drove the point home. None of these individuals had a chance of challenging Trump, and if you charged them with really wanting to challenge Trump in a court of law no conviction could be attained.
Since Nikki Haley is the only one left, Trump spent a good amount of time disparaging her, and at one point threatening the “Ted Cruz’s wife and father treatment” if she didn’t bend the knee and once again return to full faith and fellowship in the congregation of Trump First and the Gimme Gimmes. Ron DeSantis made it six days post-Iowa before resting on the seventh and endorsing Trump. The eschatology of when the inevitable end times for Haley 2024 is down to pre-South Carolina, post-a 30- or 40-point drubbing in the Palmetto State, or taking odds if Nikki lasts the week. But we have enough gospel of Trump to know what happens after that; No matter how much ugly Trump dumps on her between now and then, Nikki Haley will endorse Trump. Happily, with the same false, cringy over smile and talking hands that she sported pretending Iowa went great and New Hampshire went even better while attacking the “political class” that she herself has been at the forefront of for 20 years.
They all do. All the GOP wannabes take their turn like Tim Scott did in New Hampshire Tuesday night where they laugh and smile and slap the back of the man who is publicly burning their dignity in effigy to put a twinkle in his otherwise dim eye. Because they want to be liked by the Trump faithful after Trump. And a Republican Party that has trained a reactionary creature like Donald Trump that they will give him whatever he wants have authored this current display of Trump feeling supremely entitled to everything, all the time, from everyone.
Which is why digging through the numbers, polls, data, and precedents tell a different story than the current parables MAGA Republicans are pushing. Trump is doing what observant folks have long claimed he would do; dominate in the primary with his devoted base while at the same time damaging his general election chances with everyone else. While his path to the nomination is now a flat, wide road, he’s increasingly a pariah to independents, Democrats, and just about everyone else, and the “high floor, low ceiling” of Trump’s support hits the latter.
President Biden in a normal political dispensation of time would be a very vulnerable incumbent. But Joe Biden has once again – as he did in 2020 – received the greatest political gift given to a presidential candidate in modern times. All Joe Biden has to do is be not Donald Trump. There are other factors of course, but barring an economic collapse, Biblical event, a giant squid attacking the Potomac Basin, or some other unforeseen event in the time between now and November’s election is going to be all Trump bad, all the time. The Biden campaign, if it has a lick of sense, will be dumping hundreds of millions into advertising highlighting Trump, mostly in his own words and deeds.
Trump is on the ballot, and nothing is certain, so there is no absolute and it is foolish to do a blanket “he can’t win” statement no matter what the data and trends say. But barring those outside, nearly Biblical events that could happen, we should deal with what is most likely to happen. Which most of this primary coverage hasn’t done by most folks. Joe Biden set a record in votes received in 2020, and with this version of Donald Trump in full blown revenge mode with no filters or restraints, President Biden is mostly likely going to break his own record for turnout in 2024.
And it will all be thanks to Donald Trump, who was at the podium in New Hampshire, surrounded by his disciples of political expediency, shouting at anyone who was refusing to go along with the burdened GOP beast to the meeting house and revel in his greatness. Time will tell if enough folks ignore the shouts and proceed to the mountain anyway, willing to go a bit further for a true word.
Never interfere with the enemy when he is in the process of destroying himself.Report
What would be the timing of the most humiliating possible series of events for Haley to drop out and endorse Trump, clearing his path to re-nomination? Probably the morning after losing her home state to him. So that could be as long as a month from now.Report
Call me contrarian, but if she really wanted to damage him, she’d run this out until a brokered convention dawns . . . and then the GOP elites would be forced to nakedly, publicly, do the dance they are all doing in private . . .Report
You misunderstand me.
What sequence of events would be most humiliating to Haley before she, too, debases herself by kissing Trump’s ring, as predicted in the OP?
Haley will not embarrass Trump. She lacks the ability to do that, because she lacks the ability to command a majority of Republican primary voters in any state; she lacks the ability to gain a sufficient number of delegates to broker the convention.
This despite her admittedly sensational resume, a remarkably good manner of delivery, and her status as the Republican’s most credible choice of a person who could actually be President. (Particularly given DeSantis’ showing as the updated version of Scott Walker.) She just isn’t Trump, and the GOP wants Trump.Report
She’d probably run out of money well before then. It’s one thing to get the right wing money men to fund your long shot campaign to be a tax cutting placeholder for them. It’s another thing to ask them to fund your campaign that would potentially damage their actual tax cutting placeholders odds in the general.Report
But she can probably raise enough to run staff if she avoids big TV buys. So she keeps doing the grunt work to be on all the ballots and depends on the mainstream media to keep mentioning her. We’re still ten months out and there’s a lot of legal proceedings against Trump. Something may be the breaking point (eg, if a bunch of evidence surfaces that he literally sold US security secrets to China, or the New York civil suit bankrupts him). It’s a long shot, but you can’t win if you don’t play the game.
Recall the fairly regular headlines from 2012: “Romney Finishes 2nd in State X, Increases Delegate Lead.” Every time it looked like someone was going to make a run, it turned out they hadn’t done the paperwork and weren’t in the next couple of primaries.Report
There isn’t going to be a brokered convention. A brokered convention is the dream of pundits and it never happensReport
What you wrote.Report
From Jake Sherman at Punchbowl News:
We have the gameplan ahead of us.
Abortion vs. Immigration. Until November.Report
So the cynical ol turtle doesn’t want to reach any deal on the border. What a surprise.Report
A few days ago the Supreme Court gave the Biden administration a 5-4 decision on an emergency application that allows the Feds to dismantle all the barriers and barbed wire Texas erected at Eagle Pass to deter refugees/migrants. Texas is responding by doubling down and putting up more barriers (cargo containers double stacked) and barbed wire.
Texas is clearly trying to goad Biden into a military response and sees it as a heads we win/tails Biden loses situation. If Biden orders military response/arrest of Texan troops, it gives them permission to open/exchange fire and accuse Biden of having blood on his hands. Ruby Ridge II/Cliven Bundy II. Or they get a chance a jury nullification in Fed Courts in Texas. If Biden does not engage, they get to keep their barriers and Biden looks like a weaklingReport
Abbot would have a harder time doing this if Biden federalizes the National Guard in Texas for border enforcement.Report
I would have phrased that in a way that defends Biden’s not doing it.Report
Texas apparently has its own paramilitary esque units that can’t be nationalizedReport
The governors of Oklahoma, Florida, Virginia, Arkansas, and South Dakota have all claimed solidarity with Texas.
Biden can federalize those states’ National Guards.Report
Would that those governors would pressure their respective Congressional delegations to take the apparently incredible deal on offer.Report
Only Democrats have agency, InMD, on immigration questions as with so many other things.Report
I don’t think that that criticism works here.
What is Texas doing?
Acting.
That’s the complaint!Report
What are they doing? Obstructing. Just like they are in congress.Report
Yeah, but they’re obstructing THE BORDER.Report
And the border patrol is removing the inhumane obstructions. The lawsuit, need I remind you, was trying to stop the border patrol from acting.Report
It shows no actual interest in doing something about the problem including when the something actually now on the table is almost entirely on Republican terms. What Texas is doing is theater.
Think of it as renaming the elementary school from George Washington Elementary to Malcom X Decolonized Learning Center while 0% of the children meet reading proficiency standards.Report
Texas is finally demanding the federal judiciary pay its bill after 40 Years of reworking by conservatives. And they are seeking to make democrats look weak and ineffective so as to force permanent minority rule in the US.Report
If the migrants aren’t crossing at the obstructed part of the border (or merely crossing in significantly fewer numbers) but crossing at the unobstructed part, I think that a case can be made that a measurable part of the goal is meeting its milestone.Report
I don’t think putting state law enforcement on a collision course with federal law enforcement is likely to reap much fruit, but I suppose that’s an open question.
However my comment really boils down to asking where Abbott or the rest are when it comes to making the case for his own party to take a deal on the table? I feel like there’s a lot of contortion going on to give the benefit of the doubt to GOP theatrics that we would never give to Democrats on some other issue like, I dunno covid NPI or schools. Why would they rather defend putting up barbed wire for a photo op than taking yes for an answer at the level of government best suited to handle this?Report
I think it will reap fruit.
NOBODY is going like it. Sour persimmons will taste like pineapple rings with a maraschino cherry in the middle by comparison.
But fruit we will have.Report
I don’t know. The Constitution isn’t a suicide pact, or it’s not supposed to be. At some point, a governor is responsible for his state.Report
So he can make a big spectacle of shipping a bunch of confused illegal aliens across the country but he can’t go banging down Chip Roy’s door demanding he and the Freedom Caucus vote yea on a total GOP win in Congress?Report
Oh he can. He’s just choosing not to in the same way that Chip Roy is screaming at his colleagues for not accomplishing anything while obstructing them from accomplishing anything.Report
Not sure what you mean.Report
I mean that the GOP has by all reports won major, major policy concessions at the federal level in exchange for aid to Ukraine and Israel, that a critical mass of them, including GOP reps from those states, have decided nevertheless they won’t vote for, lest it dampen interest in Trump’s key issue. I am saying if the governors actually cared about this problem putting pressure on their colleagues is where the focus would be. Instead we have this which at the end of the day will be just another stunt.Report
I don’t know that this will end up as another stunt.
I’m not an expert on the issue or the politics of it, but it seems that there’s a compromise deal promised every year that never passes. If the reports are true that there was a real deal to be made and the Republicans in Washington walked away from it, then it seems like a mistake for the governors to not press them on it.Report
What concessions?
I honestly haven’t seen (no do I think the article writers know) what concessions have been conceded.
That said, it does seem as though R’s won’t sell out Trump’s key issue before the election.
The negotiator in me says to use Trump as leverage to get even bigger concessions from Dems as you do the thing you want to do and slide the knife into DJT’s back.Report
Based on reporting I am seeing basic contours are:
-More money for enforcement and judges
-Higher standard for asylum
-expedited deportation
-possibly hard caps on parole into the country while cases are pending
All with no policy concessions from Democrats on people already here or are trying to get here. I’d add other links but this hits it in a nutshell.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/senate-immigration-deal-republicans-biden-border/Report
Thanks to both.
Still mostly a positioning doc for the public.
Way at the bottom:
“The White House and the small group of senators involved in the negotiations have agreed on some provisions, like [1] creating an authority to expel migrants [1a] when border agents record a spike in illegal crossings, [2] making asylum screenings harder to pass and [3] expanding the expedited removal process. But the [4] parole policy has continued to divide them, sources said.”
That’s not nothing, but seriously, compare it to H.R. 2 and see what ‘Major’ concessions would look like.
Here’s the thing… politically… if it’s really a Major Concession legislation, it really would hurt Trump and give Biden a great campaign position.
But, if it’s ‘Major’ in the Ronald Reagan/George Bush Major sort of way, I bet Trump wins.
I say, dig deep Dems and Rotary Club R’s… the pain of a strong border bill is offset by the pleasure of sticking the knife in Trump’s back.Report
I’m on record as saying I don’t care about giving the GOP big concessions on immigration (meaning I’d give them) because a. I think it’s in our long term interest for Ukraine to stay in the fight and b. for exactly what you suggest, taking the wind out of the sails for Trump’s key issue going into the election.
We all rely on the reporting though, and the latest is that they were quite close to something up until the Trump campaign stepped in pushing for no deal.
Maybe the reporting is wrong or misleading but it’s what we have to go on at the moment.Report
Agreed, we can only infer from what the press tells us.
My point is that this only seems like ‘major concessions’ to reporters who think they are major concessions. My concern is that if those are the concessions, they aren’t major. Plus… the issue a Parole — which is dividing them — is Major.Report
CBS has a decent summary.
https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/senate-immigration-deal-republicans-biden-border/Report
In addition to the governors of Oklahoma, Florida, Virginia, Arkansas, and South Dakota stating support for Texas, the states of Georgia, Iowa, Idaho, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, South Carolina, Tennessee, Virginia, West Virginia, and Wyoming have reportedly sent resources to Texas to assist.
Biden has to start shooting people now.
Or, I suppose, change the subject to abortion, abortion, and abortion.Report
Add Montana, Alabama, Utah, and Louisiana to the list.Report
A joint statement signed by 25 governors has been released:
Report
Fentanyl and terrorists are the best they can come up with? This is laughable. You would think the fearmongering would wear thin after awhile, but apparently that side of the aisle has an endless appetite for it.Report
I think that the best that they can come up with is that there are 25 of them.Report
If the statement came from a bipartisan group it would carry a lot more weight. As it is, it’s just electioneering.Report
Let’s hope the Democrats don’t fall into fearmongering, especially during this election when democracy is at stake!Report
If they really want a hit war they may get it.Report
Ooohhh all red states and governed by Trump lickspittles.
What kind of fools do you take us for? Why should this be taken at face value?Report
Don’t take it at face value!
Hell! Say it doesn’t exist! Say it doesn’t matter! Say that all of these guys should be shot! Call for Biden to shoot them! DARE SOMEONE TO DISAGREE WITH YOU!!!!
It’s all good.Report
The drowned woman and her baby were not available for a rebuttal to the Party Of Life.Report
Here’s the best play, Saul. “Are you still talking about that?”
Here are screenshots of the front page of the New York Times, CNN, and MSNBC. I took these myself about 5 minutes ago.
Check the screenshots that I took against the front pages yourself, if you want: NYT, CNN, MSNBC.
Look for a mention of what the governors did.
Play this the *EXACT* same way.
“Why are you talking about something that doesn’t even matter?”Report
Biden getting too directly involved in immigration right now is playing into their hands. There’s no upside. He’s probably correct is staying hands off and pushing for a deal.Report
I am not so sure. This kind of open defiance can’t be let to stand.Report
An armed confrontation between state forces and federal forces or even a very vicious court battle in the Supreme Court as currently constituted are both playing into Abbot and the rights hands.
It bears remembering that the voting population sits uncomfortably far to the right of the popular left consensus on immigration. The more you elevate this issue in the public eye the worse it gets unless you have some actual resolution you can impose- which we don’t.Report
Maybe Biden should just get a court order, forcing Abbot to comply…with the previous court order he is ignoring.Report
We’re in “Biden needs to send men with guns down there” territory at this point.
And the dilemma is:
1. If Biden sends men with guns down there, someone is likely to get shot
2. If Biden fails to send men with guns down there, he will be the guy who failed to send men with guns down there after the court order
Which of those would you prefer?
If you see significant downsides to both, congrats. You’re now seeing the root of the problem.Report
Imagine they are black people blocking a freeway.Report
If I’m intended to read that as saying “Just as it is justified to shoot freeway blockers (or drive over them), Biden will be justified in sending men with guns down to shoot the Texas guys (as well as any others from other states who may be participating)”, then let me ask you:
Do you think it will reflect negatively on Biden if he does not send people down there to shoot these guys?Report
Biden already has men with guns down there. Called the Birder Patrol. Who should probably start arresting Texas guys with guns for obstructing federal law enforcement.Report
I think that the argument is that they’re obstructing non-enforcement.
But I’ll ask you the same question: Do you think it will reflect negatively on Biden if he does not start shooting these guys?Report
The Border patrol is apprehending people crossing at places that are not official. They then take them to border facilities and process them. If those persons claim asylum they get sent down one path, where they are allowed to go free until their cases can be heard. Do you know how many of them then skip their hearings? 17%. And 96% of asylum seekers who are represented by an attorney show up for their hearings. These people want to be here and our system can’t let them in fast enough.
As to the others, I find it laughable that both Biden and Obama have higher arrest and deportation rates are still dinged as not enforcing the laws. It’s a cool lie being told by the GOP because they don’t want to reform the system because it will weaken their political power.
As to how Biden looks – the only thing making him look bad is that he keeps expecting the GOP to act like a governing party instead of a frat house.Report
Do you think it will reflect negatively on Biden if he does not start shooting these guys?Report
No because craving an epic battle for supremacy is a fascist tendency, not a small L liberal democracy thing.Report
Well, I imagine you’re right. I think that it is quite likely that he will not, in fact, send people down there to start arresting people.
Would you like to start talking about abortion?Report
And the tendency of Republicans to shoot abortion providers?
And their depraved indifference to human life?
Or wage violent attempts to overthrow an election?
Or shoot cops?
Sure.Report
“The Republican Party is the party of Kyle Rittenhouse.”
Try something like that.
“People should be free to protest!”Report
Bluejays don’t stand a chance!!!Report
SCOTUS just said that the Feds can’t be locked out of the Border area, and therefore they couldn’t be sued for cutting the barrier wire. No reasons were given.
Is there another ruling I should be looking at too?Report
I disagree strongly. Allowing state governments to openly defy federal supremacy and the federal government is a bad idea. They must be made to conform to lawful authority.Report
” Allowing state governments to openly defy federal supremacy and the federal government is a bad idea”
In this paper we demonstrate why the practice of legalizing marijuana necessitates the Federal Government take over state and local police enforcement.Report
I’ve also seen the comparison to the school in Little Rock.
That governor was defying Federal Law!
Just like the governors today are! I mean, I assume they are. Does anyone know what the Federal Law in question is?Report
Sure, then you can double back to ‘sanctuary cities’ which have as their basis non-compliance with Federal Authorities on matters of Immigration.
Turtles of non-compliance all the way down.
What liberalism really needs is an authoritarian president who’s not afraid to do what’s right! Crush the Marijuana Dispensaries and arrest local govt employees who ignore Federal requests on Immigration enforcement.Report
Say what you will about Martha’s Vineyard, they expelled those immigrants in less than 2 days.Report
Sanctuary cities aren’t defying any law or court order.
And no one is asking Texas state officials to cooperate with federal Border Patrol, just not stand in their way.
A true comparison would be if Gavin Newsom directed California state police to physically block Border Patrol agents from carrying out raids.Report
Sure, there’s your compromise then!
Border patrol will be free to patrol the border in between the physical barriers and the border. They are also free to patrol the area outside the physical barriers.
Meanwhile Texas employees will just go about their business maintaining the physical barriers at unauthorized crossings so as to encourage migrants to use the 50 authorized crossings for their safety and good order.
And Border control continues to manage the authorized crossings according to Federal guidelines on immigration.
It’s not like Abbot is physically blocking the authorized crossings.Report
So long as they comply with a lawful court order, we’re good.Report
Sanctuary cities are not non-compliant. They rightfully expect the Feds to enforce immigration.Report
They rightfully expect the Feds to enforce immigration.
Hence, the problem.Report
“Allowing state governments to openly defy federal supremacy and the federal government is a bad idea. ”
like when the President lawfully enacted security measures that were entirely within his power and multiple states challenged those measures?Report
Did they admit those travellers?Report
That’s a briar patch that Abbot and his cronies are just horrified we might throw them into. Just quaking in their boots. /sReport
On the other hand if the Texas National Guard is filled with MAGATs that would openly defy a lawful order from a Democratic President, it is better to find this out now than on Election Day or later.Report
I really don’t see how you can use that term given your rightful sensitivity about dehumanization.Report
No one should assume that. People generally join the National Guard for tuition assistance and to serve their communities.
The more likely scenario is people standing around trying to figure out what they’re supposed to do on an ill defined mission they aren’t trained or equipped for.Report
As usual I think you’re right. I’m not really sure what the parry to McConnell is here though. I’d do a deal too but if the Republicans have decided there is no deal no matter what I’m not sure what the Biden admin is supposed to do. I guess look into what unilateral executive action is available to maks a show of ‘getting serious about the border’ even if it doesn’t do anything on the long term policy front.Report
I would, assuredly, focus all messaging on blasting out that the GOP is actively refusing and obstructing a border deal. That being said I also recognize that simply messaging is weak tea- but what can you do? More executive action is like struggling in quick sand- it just makes you sink deeper and compounds the problem.
I think the main, concrete take away is that the Dems need to internalize that addressing immigration should be a huge priority the next time they take a trifecta. In the past the left has always avoided it because the far left and center left are badly divided on policy and no one on the left feels that strongly that it needs addressing as they view the status quos as tolerable.Report
Agree 100%.Report
Until that trifecta includes a 60/40 split in the Senate there isn’t a damn thing the Dems can do. Getting rid of the filibuster rule ought to be job one.Report
I agree with you, and the filibuster came awfully close to dying this session. Its days are numbered.Report
While Manchin and Sinema took most of the heat in public over not getting rid of the filibuster, I believe Angus King also said he would vote against such a move. I suspect there are a number of other Democrats who would vote against if it ever got that far.
Being a Senator seems to endow them with a belief in complicated privileges for themselves and the body. To get the 17th Amendment through the Senate and sent to the states required being on the verge of calling a constitutional convention.Report
Yeah, the filibuster protects the majority as much as it protects the minority.
Shift the blame, make a sad statement, maintain your rep.Report
I agree, Manchin and Sinema were simply the faces for this but the filibuster has been buckling and breaking despite that dynamic. It’s never been used as a universal impediment to all business like it has been used under McConnell and I think that innovation is going to burn it out like a car constantly floored to spin its wheels in the snow. Even Senators will eventually tire of it if it keeps being used in such a lop sided fashion to beat them over the head. It’ll only take a 50% vote to end it, and only once.Report
I don’t know if I would use as strident language as Lee but I think there is a real danger in letting the GOP defy the Federal Courts this way. They tried it during the civil rights era and nationalizing their state guards largely caused them to fold.Report
Yep. And the base will eat it up because they can’t think their way out of the morass GOP politicians have built.
Trump’s federal trials can’t come soon enough and I hope at least one is televised.Report
“Happily, with the same false, cringy over smile and talking hands”
gosh, i wonder why don’t more women post hereReport
I think sometime in the next few weeks, Nikki Haley will have a struggle session in which she admits her BadThink, and learns to love Donald Trump.Report