2024 Oscar Projections: Final Nomination Predictions
Less than a week after my last outlook into how the battle for nominations at this year’s Oscars are shaking up and already some major signals are telling us races may already be shifting.
The BAFTAs, which have crossover voters with the Academy, nominated Oppenheimer, Killers Of The Flower Moon, Poor Things, The Holdovers, and Anatomy Of A Fall in their Best Film lineup of just five. Historically it is rare to miss BAFTA’s Best Film category and still win Best Picture at Oscar. The last film to do it was CODA two years ago; but before that you have to go all the way back to two decades ago with Million Dollar Baby which missed because it turned out screeners never really got to BAFTA members in the first place! In other words Barbie, which was riding a wave of momentum after winning HCA’s Astra Awards’ Best Picture prize and picking up plenty wins with Critics Choice, took a massive hit as international voters have signaled they don’t love the film as much as perhaps those stateside do. Last year’s Oscar winner, Everything Everywhere All At Once, also wasn’t as beloved with international voters but that movie still picked up a ton of BAFTA nominations including Best Film and Best Director – Barbie missed both of those major ones.
Oppenheimer remains the frontrunner as it has been since “Barbenheimer” weekend. As I stated in the last update, I have to go back to 12 Years A Slave a decade ago to the last time I would say a frontrunner has held the lead since the Summer and into Oscar nominations morning. Its favored to potentially pick up to 13 mentions, one short of the all-time record. Its pulled away as the common critics groups’ pick for Best Picture (Both of the groups I am a member of, Central Florida and Puerto Rico, themselves voted for it for Best Picture), and Christopher Nolan has become practically unstoppable in his quest for that directing Oscar.
The only movies that seem to be coming close to challenging it are Killers Of The Flower Moon (Which has been the second popular critics pick but can’t seem to find a path to a Best Picture win at bigger shows), Barbie (Which now must show strength with guilds after its BAFTA underperformance), Poor Things (Which won one of the two Picture prizes at the Golden Globes but had a major miss with SAG where it couldn’t make Ensemble), The Holdovers (Which is surging but also missed SAG Ensemble and has to prove it can win a screenplay race), and Anatomy Of A Fall (Beloved by international voters and surging, but stateside voters have yet to show major support for it).
Then you have two locked in also-rans in Maestro (Which has gotten major support from the industry even though audiences are mixed on it) and American Fiction (Which is picking up steam with stateside voters but not so much with international bodies). That leaves two spots which are likely to go to The Zone Of Interest (Which is getting some major momentum even with its dark subject matter) and Past Lives (Which has been holding its own but has been slipping of late after we shifted from the critical stage to the industry stage of awards season).
These are the very likely ten movies that will compete for the big prize. But given that never in history has the Producers’ guild chosen the same 10 Best Picture nominees, there’s a real possibility we get a surprise for what sneaks in as that tenth film. ‘Spiderverse’ remains a threat with its incredibly high audience scores and voters have been mentioning it when talking anonymously to awards journalists. The Color Purple is seemingly beloved by the actors and they do make up the largest branch of the Academy. International voters have been pushing hard for All Of Us Strangers. Napoleon has been showing strength in below-the-line shortlists and mentions. And then there’s the passion for others like May December, Society Of The Snow, Air, and The Iron Claw. One other potential surprise is Origin, which has been surging out of the blue with help from the same grassroots campaign that allowed Andrea Riseborough to come out of nowhere and get a Best Actress nomination last year for the super small and little seen film To Leslie.
Outside of the Best Picture race, Barbie and Oppenheimer seem on track to split technical and craft categories – save for Visual Effects which is as wide open as it gets, and Hair & Makeup which on paper should be Maestro‘s to lose. On the acting front Robert Downey JR and Da’Vine Joy Randolph have emerged as the clear early favorites in the two supporting categories (Though I think Randolph could be vulnerable), while both of the lead categories seem to be more up in the air with recent twists and turns. Both screenplay races are wide open and I’ve yet to get any clarity from any major body about them.
This Tuesday we’ll have nominations announced and I’m hopeful to have projected a vast majority of these right, but I’ll obviously get some spots wrong and thus I would implore you to take those on the outside looking in nearly as seriously as the nominees I am predicting will get in. Will we see “Oppy” dominate in nominations? Will Barbie‘s director get snubbed by the more snobby Directors’ branch? Will we see stunning acting snubs? Will Godzilla Minus One make history and get into Visual Effects? So many questions and they’ll be answered this Tuesday. Once we know who the actual nominees are – that’s when things really heat up to another level.
Best Picture: Leans Oppenheimer
– Final Projection:
01. Oppenheimer
02. Killers Of The Flower Moon
03. Barbie
04. Poor Things
05. The Holdovers
06. Maestro
07. American Fiction
08. Anatomy Of A Fall
09. The Zone Of Interest
10. Past Lives
– Watch Out For:
11. Spider-Man: Across The Spiderverse
12. The Color Purple
13. Saltburn
14. All Of Us Strangers
15. May December
16. Society Of The Snow
17. Napoleon
18. Origin
19. Air
20. The Iron Claw
Best Director: Likely Nolan
– Final Projection:
01. Christopher Nolan; Oppenheimer
02. Martin Scorsese; Killers Of The Flower Moon
03. Yorgos Lanthimos; Poor Things
04. Alexander Payne; The Holdovers
05. Jonathan Glazer; The Zone Of Interest
– Watch Out For:
06. Greta Gerwig; Barbie
07. Justine Triet; Anatomy Of A Fall
08. Bradley Cooper; Maestro
09. Celine Song; Past Lives
10. Andrew Haigh; All Of Us Strangers
Best Actor: Tilts Giamatti
– Final Projection:
01. Paul Giamatti; The Holdovers
02. Cillian Murphy; Oppenheimer
03. Bradley Cooper; Maestro
04. Jeffrey Wright; American Fiction
05. Colman Domingo; Rustin
– Watch Out For:
06. Leonardo DiCaprio; Killers Of The Flower Moon
07. Barry Keoghan; Saltburn
08. Andrew Scott; All Of Us Strangers
09. Zac Efron; The Iron Claw
10. Teo Yoo; Past Lives
Best Actress: Tilts Stone → Leans Stone
– Final Projection:
01. Emma Stone; Poor Things
02. Lily Gladstone; Killers Of The Flower Moon
03. Carey Mulligan; Maestro
04. Sandra Huller; Anatomy Of A Fall
05. Annette Benning; Nyad
– Watch Out For:
06. Margot Robbie; Barbie
07. Greta Lee; Past Lives
08. Fantasia Barrino; The Color Purple
09. Natalie Portman; May December
10. Aujanue Ellis-Taylor; Origin
Best Supporting Actor: Leans Downey J.R
– Final Projection:
01. Robert Downey J.R; Oppenheimer
02. Ryan Gosling; Barbie
03. Robert DeNiro; Killers Of The Flower Moon
04. William Dafoe; Poor Things
05. Sterling K Brown; American Fiction
– Watch Out For:
06. Mark Ruffalo; Poor Things
07. Dominic Sessa; The Holdovers
08. Jacob Elordi; Saltburn
09. Paul Mescal; All Of Us Strangers
10. Charles Melton; May December
Best Supporting Actress: Tilts Randolph
– Final Projection:
01. Da’Vine Joy Randolph; The Holdovers
02. Emily Blunt; Oppenheimer
03. Danielle Brooks; The Color Purple
04. Jodi Foster; Nyad
05. Penelope Cruz; Ferrari
– Watch Out For:
06. America Ferrera; Barbie
07. Rosamund Pike; Saltburn
08. Sandra Huller; The Zone Of Interest
09. Julianne Moore; May December
10. Lilly Gladstone; Killers Of The Flower Moon (If Voters Switch Her To Supporting)
Best Original Screenplay: Tilts The Holdovers
– Final Projection:
01. The Holdovers
02. Anatomy Of A Fall
03. Past Lives
04. Maestro
05. Saltburn
– Watch Out For:
06. May December
07. Air
08. The Iron Claw
09. Asteroid City
10. Rye Lane
Best Adapted Screenplay: Tilts Oppenheimer
– Final Projection:
01. Oppenheimer
02. Killers Of The Flower Moon
03. Barbie
04. Poor Things
05. American Fiction
– Watch Out For:
06. The Zone Of Interest
07. All Of Us Strangers
08. Origin
09. Are You There God? Its Me, Margaret
10. Spider-Man: Across The Spiderverse
Best Animated Feature: Leans Spider-Man: Across The Spiderverse
– Final Projection:
01. Spider-Man: Across The Spiderverse
02. The Boy And The Heron
03. Elemental
04. Nimona
05. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem
– Watch Out For:
06. The Super Mario Bros. Movie
07. Chicken Run: Dawn Of The Nugget
08. Wish
09. Suzume
10. Robot Dreams
Best Animated Short: Tilts Once Upon A Studio
– Final Projection:
01. Once Upon A Studio
02. Letter To A Pig
03. War Is Over!
04. Ninety-Five Senses
05. Humo (Smoke)
– Watch Out For (Listed In ABC Order):
06. 27
07. A Kind Of Testament
08. Boom
09. Eeva
10. I’m Hip
11. Koerkoter (Dog Apartment)
12. Our Uniform
13. Pachyderme
14. Pete
15. Wild Summon
Best International Feature: Leans The Zone Of Interest → Likely The Zone Of Interest
– Final Projection:
01. The Zone Of Interest
02. Society Of The Snow
03. Fallen Leaves
04. The Taste Of Things
05. 20 Days In Mariupol
– Watch Out For:
06. Four Daughters
07. Perfect Days
08. The Promised Land
09. Totem
10. The Teacher’s Lounge
11. Io Capitano
12. Godland
13. The Monk And The Gun
14. Amerikatsi
15. The Mother Of All Lies
Best Live Action Short: Tilts The Wonderful Story Of Henry Sugar
– Final Projection:
01. The Wonderful Story Of Henry Sugar
02. Strange Way Of Life
03 The Anne Frank Gift Shop
04. The After
05. The Shepard
– Watch Out For (In ABC Order):
06. An Avocado Hit
07. Bienvenidos A Los Angeles (Welcome To Los Angeles)
08. Dead Cat
09. Good Boy
10. Invincible
11. Invisible Border
12. Knight Of Fortune
13. Red, White, And Blue
14. The One Note Man
15. Yellow
Best Documentary Feature: Tilts American Symphony
– Final Projection:
01. American Symphony
02. Still: A Michael J. Fox Story
03. 20 Days In Mariupol
04. Beyond Utopia
05. Four Daughters
– Watch Out For:
06. Bobi Wine: The People’s President
07. Going To Mars: The Nikki Giovanni Project
08. A Still Small Voice
09. The Eternal Memory
10. Stamped From The Beginning
11. 32 Sounds
12. Apolonia, Apolonia
13. To Kill A Tiger
14. In The Rearview
15. Desperate Souls, Dark City, And The Legend Of Midnight Cowboy
Best Documentary Short: Tilts The ABCs Of Book Banning
– Final Projection:
01. The ABCs Of Book Banning
02. The Last Repair Shop
03. The Barber Of Little Rock
04. Camp Courage
05. Nai Nai And Wai Po (Grandma And Grandma)
– Watch Out For (In ABC Order):
06. Bear
07. Between Earth And Sky
08. Black Girls Play: The Story Of Hand Games
09. Deciding Vote
10. How We Got Free
11. Last Song From Kabul
12. If Dreams Were Lightning: Rural Healthcare Crisis
13. Island In Between
14. Oasis
15. Wings Of Dust
Best Original Song: Tilts “What Was I Made For?”
– Final Projection:
01. “What Was I Made For?”; Barbie
02. “I’m Just Ken.” Barbie
03. “Road To Freedom”; Rustin
04. “It Never Went Away”; American Symphony
05. “The Fire Inside”; Flaming Hot
– Watch Out For:
06. “Dance The Night”; Barbie
07. “Keep It Moving” The Color Purple
08. “Superpower (I)” The Color Purple
09. “Quiet Eyes”; Past Lives
10. “Am I Dreaming”; Spider-Man: Across The Spiderverse
11. “Can’t Catch Me Now”; The Hunger Games: The Ballad Of Songbirds & Snakes
12. “High Life” Flora And Son
13. “Meet In The Middle”; Flora And Son
14. “A Song For My People”; Killers Of The Flower Moon
15. “Dear Alien (Who Art In Heaven)”; Asteroid City
Best Original Score: Leans Oppenheimer → Likely Oppenheimer
– Final Projection:
01. Oppenheimer
02. Killers Of The Flower Moon
03. Poor Things
04. Spider-Man: Across The Spiderverse
05. Indiana Jones And The Dial Of Destiny
– Watch Out For:
06. Elemental
07. The Zone Of Interest
08. Saltburn
09. Society Of The Snow
10. The Boy And The Heron
11. Barbie
12. The Holdovers
13. American Fiction
14. The Color Purple
15. American Symphony
Best Sound: Leans Oppenheimer → Likely Oppenheimer
– Final Projection:
01. Oppenheimer
02. Killers Of The Flower Moon
03. Maestro
04. The Zone Of Interest
05. Ferrari
– Watch Out For:
06. Barbie
07. Napoleon
08. The Creator
09. Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning
10. The Killer
Best Editing: Leans Oppenheimer → Likely Oppenheimer
– Final Projection:
01. Oppenheimer
02. Killers Of The Flower Moon
03. Barbie
04. Poor Things
05. The Holdovers
– Watch Out For:
06. Anatomy Of A Fall
07. The Zone Of Interest
08. Maestro
09. Past Lives
10. Ferrari
Best Cinematography: Leans Oppenheimer → Likely Oppenheimer
– Final Projection:
01. Oppenheimer
02. Killers Of The Flower Moon
03. Poor Things
04. Maestro
05. The Zone Of Interest
– Watch Out For:
06. El Conde
07. Saltburn
08. Barbie
09. Society Of The Snow
10. Napoleon
Best Visual Effects: Tilts Godzilla Minus One → Tilts The Creator
– Final Projection:
01. The Creator
02. Poor Things
03. Guardians Of The Galaxy Vol. 3
04. Indiana Jones And The Dial Of Destiny
05. Godzilla Minus One
– Watch Out For:
06. Spider-Man: Across The Spiderverse
07. Napoleon
08. Society Of The Snow
09. Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning
10. Rebel Moon Part 1: A Child Of Fire
Best Production Design: Tilts Barbie → Leans Barbie
– Final Projection:
01. Barbie
02. Poor Things
03. Oppenheimer
04. Killers Of The Flower Moon
05. The Zone Of Interest
– Watch Out For:
06. Maestro
07. Saltburn
08. Asteroid City
09. The Creator
10. Wonka
Best Costume Design: Leans Barbie
– Final Projection:
01. Barbie
02. Poor Things
03. Oppenheimer
04. Killers Of The Flower Moon
05. Napoleon
– Watch Out For:
06. Maestro
07. The Color Purple
08. Saltburn
09. Wonka
10. Priscilla
Best Hair & Makeup: Tilts Maestro
– Final Projection:
01. Maestro
02. Poor Things
03. Oppenheimer
04. Napoleon
05. Golda
– Watch Out For:
06. Killers Of The Flower Moon
07. Society Of The Snow
08. Ferrari
09. Beau Is Afraid
10. The Last Voyage Of The Demeter
