2024 Oscar Projections: Post-Thanksgiving Temperature Check
Nearly a month ago I looked at how the race for the 2024 Oscars ceremony was shaping up and found that Christopher Nolan’s nearly billion dollar grossing blockbuster epic Oppenheimer remained the movie to beat after surpassing the initial frontrunner, Martin Scorsese’s own epic Killers Of The Flower Moon, in the middle of the Summer. It won’t surprise you to learn that I still think that’s our current frontrunner in the Best Picture race. In fact you’ll find my current predicted lineup to be the exact same one in the exact same order as I had it after Halloween. Further down you’ll find very minimal changes to the other races I’m currently tracking closely with the same predicted winners in every category. Suffice to say unless you’re paying attention to the “on the bubble” and longshot contenders shifting some spots here or there, the race for the Oscars is basically exactly where it was last I checked in.
But this is the calm before the storm. We’ve been through the Spring when every would-be awards player looked like a sure thing on paper. We’ve been through the Summer blockbuster season to figure out what populist contenders could rise up. We’ve been through the Fall festivals that tested the heavyweight directors and polled audiences on what films they responded best to. Next up is December which will give us various critical groups’ awards, the National Board of Review’s picks for best films of the year, AFI’s picks for best American produced films of the year, and nominations announced for the Golden Globes, Critics Choice Awards, and Hollywood Creative Alliance (Previously known as the Hollywood Critics Association) Awards. On my end I’ll be hitting my deadline for watching films for consideration for voting in the Central Florida Critics’ awards due out in early January. This upcoming month will truly begin to separate the contenders from the pretenders before the turn of the year when the industry starts to get involved.
But that’s not say nothing of note has happened in the last month. Since I last wrote about these races we’ve seen the SAG strikes finally come to an end allowing actors and actresses to get involved in near daily awards screenings with Q&As to both critics and Academy voters – not to mention allowing the major studios to get back on the campaign trail. The Bikeriders which at one point I had as being a potential “on the bubble” contender was pushed back to next year with its distribution changing hands from 20th Century Studios to Focus Features. The Color Purple and Napoleon finally started screening with the former proving to be the contender I was confident it could be and the latter not getting its campaign off to the best start. Disney’s Wish premiered to lackluster reviews meaning any chance it had to be a Beauty And The Beast, Up, or Toy Story 3 type of historic contender are up in smoke as it now has to fight for just getting into the Animated Feature race to begin with. And another major change is that I’ve actually gotten my eyeballs on more of these contenders than before; allowing me a chance to see where the strengths and weaknesses of these films and performances are.
Next time I check in on the race near the end of December we should have a clearer picture on just how strong a frontrunner Oppenheimer is. Since 2018 the film that has won the most critics groups’ awards for Best Picture has gone on to win the prize at the Oscars three times (Parasite, Nomadland, Everything Everywhere All At Once) with the other two times that film being the very likely runner-up (Roma, The Power Of The Dog). If Oppenheimer is the clear critical darling, then its likely at the very least a top two or three contender at the Oscars. Adding to that the critical darling in Director almost always goes on to win the Oscar even when their film doesn’t win Best Picture, so Nolan cannot afford to not come away the obvious choice by critics for that prize. And we’ll also know what “on the bubble” contenders are actually getting a push from critics and making Academy voters make sure those films are on top of their screener piles. Not much has changed, but a hurricane of change and a little more certainty is about to hit awards season in the coming weeks and month.
Best Picture: Tilts Oppenheimer
– Tier 1: My Current Predicted 10
01. Oppenheimer (Unchanged Since Last Update)
02. Killers Of The Flower Moon (Unchanged Since Last Update)
03. Poor Things (Unchanged Since Last Update)
04. The Holdovers (Unchanged Since Last Update)
05. The Color Purple (Unchanged Since Last Update)
06. Barbie (Unchanged Since Last Update)
07. Maestro (Unchanged Since Last Update)
08. American Fiction (+3 Since Last Update)
09. Past Lives (Unchanged Since Last Update)
10. Anatomy Of A Fall (Unchanged Since Last Update)
– Tier 2: “On The Bubble” Contenders
11. The Zone Of Interest (+2 Since Last Update)
12. Air (-1 Since Last Update)
13. Spider-Man: Across The Spiderverse (+1 Since Last Update)
14. The Iron Claw (+4 Since Last Update)
15. Saltburn (-3 Since Last Update)
16. May December (+3 Since Last Update)
17. All Of Us Strangers (+3 Since Last Update)
18. Napoleon (-3 Since Last Update)
19. Priscilla (-3 Since Last Update)
20. Rustin (-3 Since Last Update)
– Tier 3: Longshots Within Striking Distance
21. Nyad (+1 Since Last Update)
22. Ferrari (+1 Since Last Update)
23. Perfect Days (+2 Since Last Update)
24. The Promised Land (+2 Since Last Update)
25. Wonka (+4 Since Last Update)
26. John Wick: Chapter 4 (+4 Since Last Update)
– Off The Board Since Last Update: Asteroid City; The Bikeriders; The Boy And The Heron; Wish
Best Director: Tilts Nolan
– Tier 1: My Current Predicted 5
01. Christopher Nolan; Oppenheimer (Unchanged Since Last Update)
02. Martin Scorsese; Killers Of The Flower Moon (Unchanged Since Last Update)
03. Yorgos Lanthimos; Poor Things (Unchanged Since Last Update)
04. Alexander Payne; The Holdovers (Unchanged Since Last Update)
05. Justine Triet; Anatomy Of A Fall (Unchanged Since Last Update)
– Tier 2: “On The Bubble” Contenders
06. Greta Gerwig; Barbie (Unchanged Since Last Update)
07. Celine Song; Past Lives (Unchanged Since Last Update)
08. Jonathan Glazer; The Zone Of Interest (Unchanged Since Last Update)
09. Bradley Cooper; Maestro (Unchanged Since Last Update)
10. Blitz Bazawule; The Color Purple (Unchanged Since Last Update)
– Tier 3: Longshots Within Striking Distance
11. Cord Jefferson; American Fiction (Unchanged Since Last Update)
12. Sean Durkin; The Iron Claw (Added To The Board Since Last Update)
13. Emerald Fennell; Saltburn (Unchanged Since Last Update)
14. Ridley Scott; Napoleon (Unchanged Since Last Update)
15. Sofia Coppola; Priscilla (Unchanged Since Last Update)
– Off The Board Since Last Update: Wim Wenders (Perfect Days)
Best Actor: Tilts Cooper
– Tier 1: My Current Predicted 5
01. Bradley Cooper; Maestro (Unchanged Since Last Update)
02. Cillian Murphy; Oppenheimer (Unchanged Since Last Update)
03. Leonardo DiCaprio; Killers Of The Flower Moon (Unchanged Since Last Update)
04. Paul Giamatti; The Holdovers (Unchanged Since Last Update)
05. Colman Domingo; Rustin (Unchanged Since Last Update)
– Tier 2: “On The Bubble” Contenders
06. Jeffrey Wright; American Fiction (Unchanged Since Last Update)
07. Zac Efron; The Iron Claw (+4 Since Last Update)
08. Barry Keoghan; Saltburn (-1 Since Last Update)
09. Teo Yoo; Past Lives (Unchanged Since Last Update)
10. Andrew Scott; All Of Us Strangers (Unchanged Since Last Update)
– Tier 3: Longshots Within Striking Distance
11. Matt Damon; Air (Added To The Board Since Last Update)
12. Joaquin Phoenix; Napoleon (-4 Since Last Update)
13. Adam Driver; Ferrari (Unchanged Since Last Update)
14. Mads Mikkelsen; The Promised Land (Unchanged Since Last Update)
15. Koji Yakusho; Perfect Days (Unchanged Since Last Update)
– Off The Board Since Last Update: Austin Butler (The Bikeriders)
Best Actress: Tilts Stone
– Tier 1: My Current Predicted 5
01. Emma Stone; Poor Things (Unchanged Since Last Update)
02. Lily Gladstone; Killers Of The Flower Moon (Unchanged Since Last Update)
03. Fantasia Barrino; The Color Purple (Unchanged Since Last Update)
04. Carey Mulligan; Maestro (Unchanged Since Last Update)
05. Annette Benning; Nyad (+4 Since Last Update)
– Tier 2: “On The Bubble” Contenders
06. Sandra Huller; Anatomy Of A Fall (Unchanged Since Last Update)
07. Greta Lee; Past Lives (Unchanged Since Last Update)
08. Margot Robbie; Barbie (Unchanged Since Last Update)
09. Natalie Portman; May December (-4 Since Last Update)
10. Cailee Spaeny; Priscilla (Unchanged Since Last Update)
– Tier 3: Longshots Within Striking Distance
11. Teyana Taylor; One Thousand And One (Unchanged Since Last Update)
12. Aujanue Ellis-Taylor; Origin (Unchanged Since Last Update)
13. Emily Blunt; Pain Hustlers (Added To The Board Since Last Update)
14. Helen Mirren; Golda (Unchanged Since Last Update)
15. Trace Lysette; Monica (Unchanged Since Last Update)
– Off The Board Since Last Update: Jodie Comer (The Bikeriders)
Best Supporting Actor: Tilts Downey JR
– Tier 1: My Current Predicted 5
01. Robert Downey JR; Oppenheimer (Unchanged Since Last Update)
02. Robert DeNiro; Killers Of The Flower Moon (Unchanged Since Last Update)
03. Mark Ruffalo; Poor Things (Unchanged Since Last Update)
04. Ryan Gosling; Barbie (+1 Since Last Update)
05. Charles Melton; May December (+1 Since Last Update)
– Tier 2: “On The Bubble” Contenders
06. William Dafoe; Poor Things (-3 Since Last Update)
07. Colman Domingo; The Color Purple (Unchanged Since Last Update)
08. Sterling K Brown; American Fiction (Unchanged Since Last Update)
09. Dominic Sessa; The Holdovers (Unchanged Since Last Update)
10. Matt Damon; Oppenheimer (Unchanged Since Last Update)
– Tier 3: Longshots Within Striking Distance
11. John Magaro; Past Lives (Unchanged Since Last Update)
12. Paul Mescal; All Of Us Strangers (Unchanged Since Last Update)
13. Glenn Howerton; Blackberry (Unchanged Since Last Update)
14. Jesse Plemons; Killers Of The Flower Moon (Unchanged Since Last Update)
15. Holt McCallany; The Iron Claw (Added To The Board Since Last Update)
– Off The Board Since Last Update: Jacob Elordi (Priscilla)
Best Supporting Actress: Tilts Brooks
– Tier 1: My Current Predicted 5
01. Danielle Brooks; The Color Purple (Unchanged Since Last Update)
02. Taraji P Henson; The Color Purple (Unchanged Since Last Update)
03. Da’Vine Joy Randolph; The Holdovers (Unchanged Since Last Update)
04. Emily Blunt; Oppenheimer (Unchanged Since Last Update)
05. Jodi Foster; Nyad (+2 Since Last Update)
– Tier 2: “On The Bubble” Contenders
06. Viola Davis; Air (Unchanged Since Last Update)
07. Julianne Moore; May December (-2 Since Last Update)
08. Vanessa Kirby; Napoleon (Unchanged Since Last Update)
09. Penelope Cruz; Ferrari (Unchanged Since Last Update)
10. American Ferrera; Barbie (Unchanged Since Last Update)
– Tier 3: Longshots Within Striking Distance
11. Racheal McAdams; Are You There God? Its Me, Margaret (Unchanged Since Last Update)
12. Cara Jade Myers; Killers Of The Flower Moon (Unchanged Since Last Update)
13. Rosamund Pike; Saltburn (Unchanged Since Last Update)
14. Claire Foy; All Of Us Strangers (Unchanged Since Last Update)
15. Niecy Nash-Betts; Origin (Unchanged Since Last Update)
– Off The Board Since Last Update: None
Best Original Screenplay: Tilts The Holdovers
– Tier 1: My Current Predicted 5
01. The Holdovers (Unchanged Since Last Update)
02. Barbie (Unchanged Since Last Update)
03. Past Lives (Unchanged Since Last Update)
04. Anatomy Of A Fall (Unchanged Since Last Update)
05. Air (Unchanged Since Last Update)
– Tier 2: “On The Bubble” Contenders
06. Maestro (Unchanged Since Last Update)
07. The Iron Claw (+5 Since Last Update)
08. Saltburn (-1 Since Last Update)
09. May December (-1 Since Last Update)
10. Napoleon (-1 Since Last Update)
– Tier 3: Longshots Within Striking Distance
11. Priscilla (-1 Since Last Update)
12. Rustin (-1 Since Last Update)
13. Fair Play (Added To The Board Since Last Update)
14. Asteroid City (Unchanged Since Last Update)
15. Origin (Unchanged Since Last Update)
– Off The Board Since Last Update: The Bikeriders
Best Adapted Screenplay: Tilts Oppenheimer
– Tier 1: My Current Predicted 5
01. Oppenheimer (Unchanged Since Last Update)
02. Killers Of The Flower Moon (Unchanged Since Last Update)
03. Poor Things (Unchanged Since Last Update)
04. American Fiction (Unchanged Since Last Update)
05. The Zone Of Interest (Unchanged Since Last Update)
– Tier 2: “On The Bubble” Contenders
06. The Color Purple (Unchanged Since Last Update)
07. Spider-Man: Across The Spiderverse (+1 Since Last Update)
08. All Of Us Strangers (-1 Since Last Update)
09. Nyad (Unchanged Since Last Update)
10. Ferrari (Unchanged Since Last Update)
– Tier 3: Longshots Within Striking Distance
11. Are You There God? Its Me, Margaret (Unchanged Since Last Update)
12. Blackberry (Unchanged Since Last Update)
13. Wonka (Unchanged Since Last Update)
14. Next Goal Wins (Unchanged Since Last Update)
15. Dumb Money (Unchanged Since Last Update)
– Off The Board Since Last Update: None
