Can RFK Jr Actually Help Joe Biden?

Photo by Artaxerxes, CC BY-SA 4.0 , via Wikimedia Commons

On Monday, Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., announced that he was leaving the Democratic Party primary and running as an independent. Republicans hated the decision since it allows Biden to avoid a poor showing in the New Hampshire primary. But the announcement came with a muted response among many Democrats. They were obviously tired of Kennedy’s constant media attention, his high, name-related polling, and the ability of his campaign to create bad press for Joe Biden. But Democrats also worried that this independent run may threaten the president’s reelection campaign. RFK Jr.’s announcement is one in a long line of outrage cycles over the ability of spoilers to doom the Biden reelection and secure Trump’s victory.

The assumption is that Joe Biden is the only candidate with fungible support. He is the incumbent president and the leader of one of two major parties. But he is also old, unpopular, and unable to keep complete control of his party. The number of voters who have pledged to support Biden no matter what is relatively low. Therefore, a new candidate who offers something that Biden cannot offer may stand a chance of taking votes away from the incumbent. In the case of Democrats and RFK Jr., practically the only advantage the latter has is a famous name.

On the other hand, observers believe that Trump’s vote is ironclad and secure. They have seen how Trump’s polling has weathered numerous scandals and indictments. Pundits believe in Trump’s political movement less like a traditional president and more like a cult. This cult-like support would never waiver because of the presence of an independent presidential candidate, no matter how attractive or conservative.

The possible flaw in this indictment stems from how pundits view RFK Jr. Many think of him rightly as a dangerous crank and a craven opportunist. But he is also viewed as a fallen liberal hero. RFK Jr. was a former liberal talk show host, author, and leading environmentalist. He was known throughout the 1990s and early 2000s as one of the most famous voices in left-leaning media. A large number of pundits either knew him during this time or vividly remember his rise and fall. To them, he will always be known as a Democrat.

But to many more people, RFK Jr. will only be known for his anti-vaccine stance. These are people who have no idea what Air America and the Waterkeeper Alliance are. To them, RFK Jr. parachuted in from the blue with a famous name and the single issue of vaccine skepticism. There is a chance that he will own that issue in 2024, since both Biden and Trump support COVID-19 vaccines. Kennedy will be able to corner single-issue vaccine-skeptic voters, a group that pundits believe is relatively large. In this way, he will sap many more votes from Trump than he ever could from Biden.

RFK Jr.’s independent run is understandably upsetting to Democrats. They do not want any unexpected variables stepping in to complicate an already grueling election season. But for Kennedy specifically, there may be no need for doom and gloom. Republicans who pledge themselves as true believers in the evil of vaccines, a group who would vote for Trump in a two-person race, may give Kennedy a second look. It is entirely possible that Republicans who have boosted the Kennedy run so far may have gotten more than they bargained for.