Open Mic for the week of 6/19/2023

Jaybird

Jaybird is Birdmojo on Xbox Live and Jaybirdmojo on Playstation's network. He's been playing consoles since the Atari 2600 and it was Zork that taught him how to touch-type. If you've got a song for Wednesday, a commercial for Saturday, a recommendation for Tuesday, an essay for Monday, or, heck, just a handful a questions, fire off an email to AskJaybird-at-gmail.com

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248 Responses

  1. Jaybird says:

    Okay. Anheuser-Busch has sent out another press release:

    We recognize that over the last two months, the discussion surrounding our company and Bud Light has moved away from beer, and this has impacted our consumers, our business partners, and our employees.

    We are a beer company, and beer is for everyone.

    Today, we are announcing three important actions as we continue to move our business forward.

    First, we are investing to protect the jobs of our frontline employees.

    Second, we are providing financial assistance to our independent wholesalers to help them support their employees.

    Third, to all our valued consumers, we hear you. Our summer advertising launches next week, and you can look forward to Bud Light reinforcing what you’ve always loved about our brand – that it’s easy to drink and easy to enjoy.

    As we move forward, we will focus on what we do best – brewing great beer and earning our place in moments that matter to you.

    Here’s to a future with more cheers.

    Brendan Whitworth

    The Bud Light twitter account hasn’t tweeted since April 14th.Report

    • Marchmaine in reply to Jaybird says:

      Part of me thinks that the Summer Advertising might actually cut the baby in half.

      Morbidly curious to see what they mean.Report

    • InMD in reply to Jaybird says:

      I assume you saw the conspiracy theory?

      https://nypost.com/2023/06/16/ex-anheuser-busch-employee-says-dylan-mulvaney-campaign-a-strategic-destruction-of-bud-light/

      The whistleblower stated on “Tomi Lahren Is Fearless” that “nobody’s happy” about the fall in sales and “everybody” considers the move a “very bad idea.” However, on the corporate level, he claimed that this could have been part of a strategy to undermine the American company.

      “When the company was bought over by InBev, a lot of things changed [from] when it was owned by Anheuser-Busch. You know, it’s an American brand,” the whistleblower remarked.

      The whistleblower stated on “Tomi Lahren Is Fearless” that “nobody’s happy” about the fall in sales and “everybody” considers the move a “very bad idea.” However, on the corporate level, he claimed that this could have been part of a strategy to undermine the American company.

      “When the company was bought over by InBev, a lot of things changed [from] when it was owned by Anheuser-Busch. You know, it’s an American brand,” the whistleblower remarked.

      “Bud Light has been failing for many years. We’ve talked about that for many years. The numbers of just, you know, little by little deteriorated. And it feels like they said, ‘Let’s put this nail in the coffin,’” he said. “Now we have a lot of layoffs, a lot of loss in production. It would be easy for them to restructure, let’s say, pay or contracts.”

      Now, given where this is coming from the level of skepticism to be applied needs to be significant, and I think the most likely explanation really is advertising executives coming from a class background so far removed from the consumer base of the product to be blindsided. However it’s certainly an interesting thought that the whole thing could have been cynically self inflicted to further InBev’s capital interests.Report

      • DensityDuck in reply to InMD says:

        Conspiracy theory? What, like, they’re going to switch from cane sugar to corn syrup?Report

      • Jaybird in reply to InMD says:

        As conspiracy theories go, I admit to not understanding the tactical brilliance of shooting oneself in the foot in order to run faster in the future.

        Bud Light was what they call a “Cash Cow”. It was cheap to make and it was in the #1 slot. Sure, there wasn’t much *GROWTH*… but you’re in the #1 slot. The market is yours and it’s your job to not lose it. If you’re losing it slowly, it’s your job to lose it slower *OR* stop losing it.

        Saying “let’s rip the band-aid off!” and shooting yourself in the foot to get yourself into 2030’s market position today might help with the whole “I CAN’T STAND THE TENSION” problem, but six additional years at #1 ain’t nothin’. You’re losing some of your market share to yourself, sure.

        But you’re also losing some of it to Coors, The Banquet Beer.Report

        • InMD in reply to Jaybird says:

          Yea, there’s a lot of it that doesn’t add up to me, especially on the horizons modern businesses operate under. That said I guess you’d really have to understand the costs of maintaining the distribution network to rule it out.Report

          • Jaybird in reply to InMD says:

            A few years (okay, decades) back, Clorox had some commercials that said little more than “use more”.

            When your product is the #1 product and there ain’t *NOBODY* in spitting distance, what can you possibly do?

            “Instead of using half a cup, use a whole cup.”

            That’s all you can do!

            Light Beer can’t really run with the whole “Drink More! Start at Noon!” thing.Report

    • Chip Daniels in reply to Jaybird says:

      Uh oh:

      WASHINGTON (TND) — Famous cereal mascot Tony the Tiger was seen posing for photographs alongside transgender influencer/activist Dylan Mulvaney for the 76th Tony Awards and the sight has many critics calling for boycotts of Kellogg’s products.

      THIS IS NOT A DRILL!
      REPEAT, TONY THE TIGER WAS SEEN POSING WITH DYLAN MULVANEY!!

      https://abc6onyourside.com/news/nation-world/tony-the-tiger-poses-with-transgender-activist-dylan-mulvaney-sparking-backlash

      Unbelievably, it gets worse:
      “The Frosted Flakes mascot, Tony the Tiger, has just posed for a photo with Dylan Mulvaney and even acted like a fan,” Mannarino said on Twitter. “That’s always been my line. You associate with Dylan Mulvaney and you’re done with me.”

      “Even acted like a fan!” The cartoon tiger not only posed, but WAS ACTUALLY NICE to a transgender person.

      TO THE RAMPARTS, CITOYENS!Report

      • LeeEsq in reply to Chip Daniels says:

        How does these people manage to function when they seem to hyperventilate about everything? I’d thought that at least some of them would get a strong enough panic attack about something to be incapacitated.Report

      • Jaybird in reply to Chip Daniels says:

        Okay. So what’s measurable?

        The stock price of Kellogg’s was 68.86 a year ago, 70.98 six months ago, 68.34 one month ago, 65.00 five days ago, and 66.31 this morning.

        According to the google, it’s 65.65 right now.

        When do you think we should check on it again?

        Note: If you think that it will go up as a result of this, this is a great opportunity to buy.

        EDIT: THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICEReport

        • Chip Daniels in reply to Jaybird says:

          What’s not measurable:
          The incandescent rage conservatives feel when the hated outgroup is accepted and treated with dignity.

          What has no limit:
          The lengths to which they will go to enforce their preferred social order on the rest of us.

          So I expect we will see waves of videos of conservatives shooting boxes of Frosted Flakes or running them over with their pick-em-up trucks, and videos of conservative young men berating hapless Kroger’s employees for stocking shelves with the now-hated enemy flakes, thus building on their political brand identity as freaks and weirdos.Report

        • Kazzy in reply to Jaybird says:

          Twitter is worth about 1/3 of what Musk bought it for.Report

          • Jaybird in reply to Kazzy says:

            Yeppers. And he’s fired, what? 80% of the staff?

            Crazy.Report

            • Kazzy in reply to Jaybird says:

              Go right, finances tight!Report

              • Jaybird in reply to Kazzy says:

                Yes. It’s hard to believe that he’s still the richest man in the world. It seriously looked like Larry Ellison was going to bump him.

                (Who in the heck is Bernard Arnault? It’s weird when someone is the 2nd richest man in the world and you’re asking “who in the heck is that?”)Report

              • Kazzy in reply to Jaybird says:

                Yep… and Bud Light is the second most popular beer in America!Report

              • Jaybird in reply to Kazzy says:

                There are literally hundreds of beers who envy that position!Report

              • Pinky in reply to Kazzy says:

                I think the question is intent. Musk didn’t buy Twitter to make money, he bought it for the same reason a lot of billionaires own media outlets. Everyone but this Tomi Lahren insider believe that InBev was trying to make money.

                I guess there’s a question about whether companies actually take a hit in profits with their political agenda as an end, or if it’s just taking a hit in sales for the perceived goodwill that will eventually lead to the end of higher profits.

                In related news, DC and Pixar rolled out two new movies that tanked last weekend. To some extent, the low box office could be blamed on counting Juneteenth as a major 3-day weekend, but both of the films look to be on track for a $100 million loss.Report

              • Jaybird in reply to Pinky says:

                There was an old joke that people made about Donald Trump (and others, of course, but in the last 5 years or so, I only heard it about Trump):

                “What’s the fastest way to become a millionaire in Real Estate? Start out as a billionaire.”

                What’s the fastest way to become the #2 best-selling beer in America?Report

              • Chip Daniels in reply to Jaybird says:

                Argument #4: “Behold the power of our bigotry!”Report

              • Jaybird in reply to Chip Daniels says:

                There are some things that are a lot more important than making money.

                Corporations are finally being led by people who believe that.Report

              • Fish in reply to Jaybird says:

                Ok, look…if the “downfall” of Bud Light results in fewer watery American lagers on the shelf, that’s a net positive and really something we should all be getting behind, regardless the reasons.Report

              • Jaybird in reply to Fish says:

                Step One: Buy Modelo
                Step Two: Alienate enough of customer base to make Modelo Number 1 Brand
                Step Three: ProfitReport

              • Michael Cain in reply to Jaybird says:

                …to make Modelo Number 1 Brand

                Worth noting that they made Modelo Especial the number one brand for retail sales (ie, at liquor stores and groceries). When you add in all of the places where it’s sold out of kegs, Bud Light remains easily the top brand by dollars and volume.

                Note the same is true for Pepsi and Coke. At retail, Pepsi is comfortably the top brand. Once you add in all the places that buy Coke as syrup and mix it with their own carbonated water, Coke wins easily.Report

              • Jaybird in reply to Michael Cain says:

                Hey, but they used to be number one for that as well.

                They’re moving in the wrong direction on a non-zero number of Number 1 Lists *UNLESS* their goal was to do what they’re doing.Report

              • Kazzy in reply to Michael Cain says:

                That’s a little complicated by the fact that most (all?) places have exclusives with either Coke or Pepsi. So if you have Coke in the fountain machine, you can’t have Pepsi. And vice versa. So it is hard to tease out how much of Coke’s dominance is because of consumer preference and how much because they just control the marketplace.

                Beer has some gamemanship at the tap but outside of major venues, I don’t think you’ll see bars or restaurants with exclusive deals (I’m happy to be proven wrong here though). A friend of mine worked in distribution for Sam Adams and they would jockey for premium tap placement (he cited stats that the tap head closest to the entrance sees an X% jump as a result) and signage and other things.Report

              • Kazzy in reply to Pinky says:

                “I guess there’s a question about whether companies actually take a hit in profits with their political agenda as an end, or if it’s just taking a hit in sales for the perceived goodwill that will eventually lead to the end of higher profits.”

                So if that’s a question… maybe we should retire phrases like “Go woke, go broke” and stop looking at stock tickers mere days after a supposed controversy emerges. Just a thought.Report

              • Pinky in reply to Kazzy says:

                I never do the stock value blame game. There are too many factors that go into valuation. I did mention Disney though because they seem committed to an ideology over profits, across years now. I don’t think I’ve ever said “get woke go broke” but for Disney I’ll make an exception. The major movie, tv, and streaming companies have sent multiple franchises down the same path and they’ve all had the same results.Report

              • Philip H in reply to Pinky says:

                I don’t Pinky – Disney took the same 2020 pandemic hit everyone else did to net income, but they have also shown remarkable growth since then.

                https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/DIS/disney/net-incomeReport

              • Kazzy in reply to Pinky says:

                Well, I just think it interesting then you’re responding to me and not Jaybird, who is actually doing all those things.Report

              • Jaybird in reply to Kazzy says:

                Hey, we haven’t even defined what constitutes a mistake.

                If the marketing exec said “we want to make our beer less fratty” and the beer loses frat guys, is that a mistake?

                Sounds like she accomplished her goal!

                The *CORPORATION* lost money, maybe, but we don’t even know whether losing money counts as a mistake!

                Looking at stock prices is only relevant if you see stuff like stock prices as important.

                The useful thing about stock prices is that they are measurable and you can look at stuff like “this happened on February 20th” and see what happened on February 21st-today.

                Sometimes you can look at stuff like “The CEO is sending out a press release!” and get an idea of what the CEO thinks, or wants us to think that s/he thinks, from that… but, when you think about it, is there actually evidence for anything?Report

              • Jaybird in reply to Jaybird says:

                I mean, if we want to talk about Disney, it seems that Variety is reporting that Disney’s Chief Diversity Officer is moving on:

                Disney’s chief diversity officer and senior vice president Latondra Newton is exiting her role after more than six years, according to an internal memo obtained by Variety.

                An individual with knowledge of the situation says that Newton will be joining the corporate board of another company soon, and plans to devote more time to her self-owned creative company.

                In her role as head of DEI operations at Disney, Newton was charged with overseeing the company’s “commitment to produce entertainment that reflects a global audience and sustains a welcoming and inclusive workplace for everyone.”

                Does this mean anything? People quit jobs all the time! I’ve worked places where the guy who has been there for 3 years is the old man!Report

              • CJColucci in reply to Jaybird says:

                That’s a big “if,” but if you can get anyone to bite go for it.Report

              • Jaybird in reply to CJColucci says:

                I wasn’t the one who brought up Disney, CJ.Report

              • Kazzy in reply to Jaybird says:

                Only you and Pinky seem to be talking about Disney.Report

              • Jaybird in reply to Kazzy says:

                Don’t forget Phil (you can even compare timestamps).Report

              • Kazzy in reply to Jaybird says:

                Well, god forbid people not just talk about what you want to talk about.Report

              • Kazzy in reply to Jaybird says:

                Would you say buying a company and in less than a year it is worth 1/3 of the original price constitutes a mistake?Report

              • Jaybird in reply to Kazzy says:

                I would say that it depends on why you bought it.

                I mean, if *I* did that, that would be a *HUGE* loss on my books. Holy crap! That would be devastating!

                I know that he was making noises about how Twitter wasn’t worth what his original offer was and tried to pull out but, man, Chancery Court is one of those things that does *NOT* fool around.

                So I’d say that the fact that he tried to pull out and then was forced to buy it anyway demonstrates that he figured out that actually paying his original offer was a mistake.

                What was twitter actually worth when he bought it? That might be an interesting question and I imagine that the stock price smack dab in the middle of everybody thinking that Elon wouldn’t be forced to buy it might hint at the answer.

                If we had that answer, we could compare that price to the price today and see how different those two prices are.

                I know that a lot of big advertising brands have abandoned twitter. That’s gotta hurt.Report

              • Kazzy in reply to Jaybird says:

                Oh well… if the why matters…

                Didn’t he buy it to protect free speech?

                https://www.thedailybeast.com/elon-musk-says-the-word-cisgender-is-considered-a-slur-on-twitter

                Welp…Report

              • Jaybird in reply to Kazzy says:

                I don’t think he bought it to protect free speech.

                I think he bought it to protect the free speech of the people aligned with him politically and other folks who were opposed to people opposed to those aligned with him politically… but not free speech for *EVERYBODY*.

                I also think that there’s a great deal of value to be found in owning one of the biggest social media sites on the planet. Like Bezos buying the WaPo. Lemme tell ya, if Bezos bought the WaPo and told you “it’s because I believe in freedom of the press!”, you should IMMEDIATELY put your hand on your wallet.Report

              • Kazzy in reply to Jaybird says:

                Sorry… he SAID he bought it to protect free speech.

                Just like the sub guy said he was hiring people because of how inspiring they were.Report

              • Jaybird in reply to Kazzy says:

                Say what you will about the sub guy, but he wasn’t lying! (Unlike Elon.)Report

              • CJColucci in reply to Jaybird says:

                It isn’t “weird” not to know who Bernard Arnault is — just ill-informed or uninterested. What is weird is when no one cares whether you know or care who he is or not but you make a point of exhibiting your lack of knowledge or interest and suggest that it means something more than the limits of your knowledge or interest.Report

              • Jaybird in reply to CJColucci says:

                Did you recognize his name?Report

              • CJColucci in reply to Jaybird says:

                Yes. I know who he is, what he does, and that he’s the second-richest man in the world. Not that I preen myself on this knowledge; it’s merely something I happen to know. Anyone who came across his name and didn’t happen to know could Google him and find out about him. But maybe that would be “weird.”Report

              • Jaybird in reply to CJColucci says:

                Oh, I googled him after I saw his name! I was just weirded out that he has (apparently) done a fairly good job of keeping off the radar.

                Maybe it’s an East Coast thing.Report

              • CJColucci in reply to Jaybird says:

                He is very well-known, but he sticks to his knitting and doesn’t seem to think that his mastery of the luxury goods business makes him anything more than an extremely successful businessman.Report

  2. Saul Degraw says:

    https://www.cbsnews.com/sacramento/news/19-year-old-graduates-phd-uc-davis/

    A little local story from last week about a kid who received his Ph.D. at 19. His kid sister is getting her Masters in Music at 17 according to at least one of the articles I read on this matter.

    Stuff like this is really rare but when I read about it, I can never tell how much the kids are actually rare geniuses or being pushed by their parents in a pressure-cooker environment. I also wonder whether it is worse for the kid psychologically to be stuck with school that is too easy for him or her or that they are basically going to be isolated from their peers for a long time.Report

    • LeeEsq in reply to Saul Degraw says:

      I don’t think you can pressure cook a non-genius into getting a PhD at 19 or a masters in music at 17 but average parents might not necessarily raise a rare genius to get a PhD at 19 simply because they don’t know how to apply the necessary pressure. So these types of stories always require the combination of genius kid and high pressure parent. There does seem to be a trade off between being isolated from other kids because of intelligence but also not really having friends with people at their intelligence level because they are still emotionally and physically kids.Report

  3. Pinky says:

    “The researchers also observed that an expression of ‘contempt’ was related to ‘a predicted probability of left-wing ideology.'”

    https://www.dailywire.com/news/conservative-women-are-prettier-than-liberals-according-to-aiReport

  4. Philip H says:

    Rescuers were in a race against time to find a missing submersible on Tuesday, two days after it lost communication while taking wealthy tourists to see the wreckage of the Titanic in deep waters off Canada’s coast.

    One pilot and four passengers were on board the submersible that disappeared on Sunday. The operating company said it had the capacity to stay underwater for up to 96 hours – giving those aboard until early on Thursday before air ran out.

    https://www.marinetechnologynews.com/news/titanic-tourist-still-missing-629017Report

    • Saul Degraw in reply to Philip H says:

      Everything about the CEO of the company (and pilot of the submersible) makes him sound like a cartoon libertarian designed in a lab.Report

      • Philip H in reply to Saul Degraw says:

        Perhaps, though he’s hardly the first ultrarich person to have a desire to explore the deep ocean. James Cameron, Paul Allen, The Schmidts.Report

      • Jaybird in reply to Saul Degraw says:

        He’s got *SOME* current year insights:

        Report

        • Saul Degraw in reply to Jaybird says:

          The way I interpret this statement is that he thinks 50 year old white guys are too expensive. He also has statements where he states he would not follow industry guidelines because they were too focused on safety.Report

          • Jaybird in reply to Saul Degraw says:

            “I wanted our team to be younger, to be inspirational. I’m not going to inspire a 16 year old to go pursue marine technology. But a 25 year old who is a sub pilot or a platform operator or one of our techs can be inspirational.”

            While it might certainly be true that 50 year old white guys are too expensive, he sure found a way to say that without saying that.Report

            • Slade the Leveller in reply to Jaybird says:

              You sure would think having an old sub driver would be a great selling point for a ticket that costs $250K.Report

            • Kazzy in reply to Jaybird says:

              “We’re hiring less experienced people for really important positions because they’re cheaper” is not as good for PR as “We’re hiring dynamic and inspiring folks with lots of potential!”

              It’s almost like people sometimes don’t tell the honest truth.Report

              • Jaybird in reply to Kazzy says:

                Well, if you assume that people are pretty much interchangeable beyond how dynamic and inspiring they are, it’s probably smart to save money by getting the cheap ones.

                Why would you want the boring guy when you could hire the interesting one?

                “Everybody Is In Sales!”, remember when corporations had that as a motto? Good times.Report

              • Kazzy in reply to Jaybird says:

                I don’t assume that.Report

              • DensityDuck in reply to Kazzy says:

                “It’s almost like people sometimes don’t tell the honest truth.”

                If you want to claim that people are usually talking out their asses when they say “we’re making hiring choices based on giving opportunities to nonwhite nonmen”…go ahead!Report

            • Damon in reply to Jaybird says:

              I dived the Cayman wall to see Crinoids at @ 300 feet or more in a research sub a long time ago. The “old white guy” who was the driver (and only crewmember), gave my wife and I a safety briefing, instructed us on how to do an emergency accent, and how to use the radio to call for help once we surfaced, if, “I have a heart attack and become incapacitated.” Wife looked at me as if “is this ***t real? Yes, yes it was. This ain’t no Atlantis sub that is positively buoyant. I don’t need inspiration on dive to the Titanic. I don’t want to see a 30 year old person, of any flavor, at the helm. I want some guy who’s spent half his life underwater and knows his stuff. If that’s a 50 year old white guy, former navy submariner, so be it. It’s about safety and getting back alive.Report

              • Philip H in reply to Damon says:

                I’m not goging to swat all these assumptions post by post, So here’s the summary:

                1) The number of experienced 50’ish year old submersible pilots in the WORLD is in the couple of hundreds. Many work for their respective navies, or for places like Woods Hole. They are paid extremely well and usually don’t move around a ton. It’s not a huge career field.

                2) The 25-30 year old pilots usually cut their teeth on remotely operated vehicles (ROVs) which are fly by wire Often long wires). They are often as good or better at underwater maneuvering. Most modern research submersibles – even the commercial ones like Damon cites – are mostly fly by wire now, so the operating environment is not that different.

                3) In the ocean sciences, the older you get – your salary goes up and you spend less time at sea. Some of the 5-60 year old senior PIs still go to sea, but most of their scientific crew is younger and cheaper. I’m 22 years into my federal science gig and it’s coming up on a decade since I’ve been to sea.

                4) Given what is known about the time into the dive at which contact as lost – and the fact that the a didn’t dump ballast and surface (and the ballast was allegedly designed to fall off at 24 hours) this is a catastrophic failure that no amount of piloting experience might have overcome.Report

              • DensityDuck in reply to Damon says:

                “The ‘old white guy’ who was the driver…instructed us on how to do an emergency accent…”

                …you mean, like, the guys rescuing you are from Philadelphia and you need to speak in a dialect they’ll understand? “ey, w’downeah, unneneat da wooda!”Report

              • Damon in reply to DensityDuck says:

                Funny, I used Word to type that and missed that. 🙂Report

        • Kazzy in reply to Jaybird says:

          Damn near everyone in a position of leadership for the company appears to be a 50ish-year-old white guy.Report

        • Jaybird in reply to Jaybird says:

          “You are remembered for the rules you break”

          Say what you will about this guy, but he ate his own dog food.Report

    • Chip Daniels in reply to Philip H says:

      As many others are pointing out, hundreds of migrants have drowned recently attempting to escape horrific conditions, but few of us have heard about it since most major media outlets didn’t deem it newsworthy.Report

  5. Saul Degraw says:

    Look who went on a luxury fishing vacation with Paul Singer and Leonard Leo in 2008. Master of the Universe Paul Singer would later go on to have cases in front of the Supreme Court: https://www.propublica.org/article/samuel-alito-luxury-fishing-trip-paul-singer-scotus-supreme-court

    The thing about this kind of corruption is that it is always cheap and not cheap. The trip is chump change for a guy like Singer but very expensive even for well paid individuals like Alito and Leo.Report

    • Chip Daniels in reply to Saul Degraw says:

      For decades, there has been a persistent but small and largely ineffective group of good government advocates who have tried repeatedly to curb the power of money in politics.
      And consistently they have failed, largely to the political lobbying of conservative business groups and the Federalist group headed by Leonard Leo and their affiliated justices like Alito.

      I really don’t want to hear a damn word about Hunter Biden, from the mouth of anyone who supported these groups over the years.
      This is what was obvious and predictable and everyone knew it.

      And even now, the ones bleating the loudest about Hunter Biden are steadfastly refusing to say what they want to do about it, because the truth is, they don’t want to do anything about it. They wholeheartedly approve of whatever it was they accuse Hunter Biden of doing, they just think he was playing for the wrong team.Report

      • LeeEsq in reply to Chip Daniels says:

        Many people also go into politics for these sorts of treats or at least see these sorts of treats as being something they are owed for their service. Since many Americans admire grifters, the good government types are fighting a losing battle.Report

  6. Philip H says:

    “Rather than protecting children or safeguarding medical ethics, the evidence showed that the prohibited medical care improves the mental health and well-being of patients and that, by prohibiting it, the State undermined the interests it claims to be advancing,” the ruling reads. “The testimony of well-credentialed experts, doctors who provide gender-affirming medical care in Arkansas, and families that rely on that care directly refutes any claim by the State that the Act advances an interest in protecting children.”

    I grow exceedingly weary of having to rely on the courts to afford people their humanity, and doubly so when the party seeking to strike that humanity bills itself as the political party of freedom and individual liberty.

    https://www.npr.org/2023/06/20/1183344228/arkansas-2021-gender-affirming-care-ban-transgender-blockedReport

  7. Kazzy says:

    https://www.bustle.com/wellness/is-therapy-speak-making-us-selfish

    The article is a little old and from the sounds of it, already made the rounds on the internet. But I heard the author on a podcast and found her take fascinating. While I think she chose some pretty extreme examples for the piece, I definitely do see how “therapy speak” dramatically shifts the way in which interactions, conversations, and relationships are impacted by it’s usage and agree with the conclusions Fishbein offers.

    I would even say that I see the 2nd generation of this with my students as many of them are absorbing and adopting this mindset from their parents. Some of that is just kids being kids — which perhaps speaks to the challenges presented from the use/thinking behind “therapy speak” — but having it so strongly affirmed definitely means I have to manage their social interactions differently.Report

    • Jaybird in reply to Kazzy says:

      This chart has a truncated Y axis but if you can get past that, these numbers are awful anyway.

      Report

      • Kazzy in reply to Jaybird says:

        Not seeing the connection to what I posted.Report

        • Jaybird in reply to Kazzy says:

          I think that there’s overlap between children adopting therapy-speak and these symptoms.Report

          • Kazzy in reply to Jaybird says:

            Did you read the article?Report

          • Pinky in reply to Jaybird says:

            I don’t know if the therapy speak is a cause or an effect of selfishness. My hunch is that people without a moral center like therapy speak because it lets them do an impersonation of acting on criteria. Likewise, I suspect that kids who think that life is to be enjoyed focus on their enjoyment too much. Teens can’t do anything right, and post-agrarian they’re useless, but they didn’t think about it as much before. Or maybe the survey only measures how useful teens find it to claim these things.Report

            • InMD in reply to Pinky says:

              I think there is something to your ‘moral center’ observation. Purely anecdotal but I feel as though I see a lot less of this among people who were raised with some sort of religion, even if they abandoned it by or during adulthood.

              I don’t want to get myself in trouble but I also think there are some differences in how the sexes approach these things. It looked like most if not all of the stories in the piece were about women. Unfortunately we don’t have many female regulars here and those we do don’t seem to come around much anymore. However I wonder if they wouldn’t have some perspectives on it with respect to their friendships with other women that us dudes lack.Report

              • Pinky in reply to InMD says:

                I could see that. The stereotype of male friendship is one or two friendships that last forever, while the female stereotype is a hundred new best friends gained every day. The internet probably forces short-term friendships past their expiration date, and I suspect that impacts women more than men. Combine it with the Friending and Defriending ceremonies and you’ve got the need to announce and justify decisions that used to be more organic or even implicit.Report

              • Kazzy in reply to InMD says:

                “I think there is something to your ‘moral center’ observation. Purely anecdotal but I feel as though I see a lot less of this among people who were raised with some sort of religion, even if they abandoned it by or during adulthood.”

                I’d agree with this insofar as most religions (or at least Western religions) call folks to be part of a group and, in some ways, put their individual interests aside in favor of the group’s. Other, non-religious groups can also achieve this but religion is/was far and away the most common way this was achieved in American society. I don’t know that I’d call it a “moral center” as much as it is about where they are on the me-vs-we spectrum.

                One of the more interesting things I heard said in the last few years was that the major generational divide(s) we see currently are about self vs group. Younger folks are more self-focused while older folks are more group focused. There are pros and cons to both but there is a tension between them.

                The article discusses this using the term “interiority:”

                “There may be instances when it’s necessary to bail on plans, ignore a text, speak up when you feel slighted, or take space from a trying friendship, but there are people on the other side of these interactions with their own sense of interiority. If your friends are frequently choosing their own needs over yours, Franco says, it’s worth asserting yourself.”

                “Saxbe notes that it’s essential “to be mindful of other people’s interiority, and the fact that everybody deserves to be in healthy relationships.” After all, Saxbe says, “Really good relationships are a two-way street.””Report

      • DensityDuck in reply to Jaybird says:

        This chart reminds me of the chart of autism diagnoses showing a huge spike in the 1990s.Report

    • Chip Daniels in reply to Kazzy says:

      What I think it interesting is how people spoke in past times, before the advent of psychology.

      For instance, people have always been depressed and neurotic, but spoke about it in different terms, reflecting a different understanding of how it should be viewed.

      For instance, they used the word “melancholy” for what we call depression. But aside from the different word, it was seen the way Stoics do, that grief and pain and sadness are just natural parts of life to be expected and coped with, rather than an aberration from normalcy which needs to be eliminated.

      From my observation, the mental health world has some of the same weaknesses that the physical health world does, in that there is an assumed ideal life free of pain and sadness, and if we don’t experience that, then it is some sort of cosmic injustice to be rectified.Report

      • LeeEsq in reply to Chip Daniels says:

        People in the past had to adopt the Stoic way because of lack of ability to do anything about it. The physical and mental health world believes that science can provide solutions and that telling people just to deal with the physical or mental pain is not an appropriate answer for any care provider. It also used to be expected that wealth was finite and for some people to be wealthy others had to be poor or even outright destitute. Then some scholars in the 17th and 18th century asked if this was really true and modern capitalisms and socialism with the idea that we can eliminate poverty came into being eventually.Report

      • LeeEsq in reply to Chip Daniels says:

        At least with mental health though, there isn’t much that can be done to rectify a lot of the emotional/mental pain people experience. We all know that lack of a romantic/sexual relationship is immensely frustrating for humans regardless of gender and sexual orientation. At the same time, nobody has to be your romantic partner. Some people are just out of luck. Yet telling them to tough and be a perpetual single person is very insensitive and doesn’t really do any good. A sex education class where a teacher says that sex is wonderful and some of the students are going to have the times of their life while others are going to know nothing but loneliness and sexual frustration till they die and they just need to live with it isn’t going to really come across that well.Report

    • LeeEsq in reply to Kazzy says:

      Modern society makes it a lot easier for people to live by themselves unless they develop something that really incapacitates them. So it could be that people just don’t need to stay around in relationships that aren’t good for them personally because they don’t need those relationships to live anymore. Like being a life long single person simply wasn’t economically viable in the past but now it kind of is. The result is people decide that no marriage is a lot preferable to a bad marriage. Naturally some people see this as a good thing and run on this to a maximum conclusion.

      Another complication is social status. Some people because of real or perceived high status along with a willingness to be inflexible and use their social power are able to make other people bend towards their preferences. People put up with this because they believe having a close relationship to this person will be of personal benefit to themselves. Other people want to do this but lack the status to make people bend towards them.Report

  8. Jaybird says:

    Something that I am not smart enough to understand: Antidepressant users may be less likely to test positive for COVID-19

    New research published in BMC Medicine suggests that using antidepressants (ADs), especially selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs), could help prevent COVID-19 infection.

    The study was based on infection trends seen among 5,664 patients admitted for mental health care at South London and Maudsley NHS Foundation Trust sites during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic (April to December 2020).

    Researchers from King’s College London looked at the COVID-19 test results of all inpatients routinely tested upon admission and found that 202 of the 5,664 patients (3.6%) were positive for COVID-19.

    Mental health patients with a recent (previous 90 days) prescription for an SSRI had an almost 40% reduction in the likelihood of a positive COVID-19 test.

    Report

    • Pinky in reply to Jaybird says:

      Depressed people are less likely to leave their houses?

      Also, this is another entry in the ongoing “most misleading headline” competition. “Less likely to test positive” sounds like “more likely to get a false negative”, not “more likely to be negative”.Report

      • Jaybird in reply to Pinky says:

        40% reduction.

        What the hell does that mean? Of those 202, 80 were on SSRIs?

        Or 3/8ths of 202 so 76?Report

        • Pinky in reply to Jaybird says:

          I’m trying to back out the numbers, and it’s not working.

          “202 of the 5,664 patients (3.6%) were positive for COVID-19”
          if 202 of 5664 were positive, then 5664-202=5462 were negative.

          “In total, 27.7% percent of COVID-19–negative patients had at least one antidepressant prescription mention within 90 days preceding admission”
          If 21.6% of the negatives were on SSRI’s, that’d be .216*5462=1513.

          “A total of 1,020 (18.0%) had an SSRI prescribed within 90 days of inpatient admission.”
          But the number of negatives on SSRI’s is more than that.Report

  9. Chip Daniels says:

    A bit of good news out of Virginia:

    Reform Prosecutors Sweep Three Northern Virginia Primaries

    Steve Descano, Parisa Dehghani-Tafti, and Buta Biberaj were swept into office on reformist platforms four years ago in Fairfax, Loudoun, and Arlington counties, respectively. They quickly joined forces as part of a statewide alliance, the Virginia Progressive Prosecutors for Justice, that lobbied for changes like abolishing the death penalty and stepping up expungements. They also drew anger from conservative politicians and local law enforcement for not pursuing cases more aggressively, and clashed with judges and police—but survived recall efforts.
    Chip Daniels
    https://boltsmag.org/virginia-prosecutor-primaries-arlington-fairfax-loudoun/Report

  10. Damon says:

    “Black Holes might not exist after all, new study shows”

    https://anomalien.com/black-holes-might-not-exist-after-all-new-study-shows/

    “Before a black hole can form, the dying star swells one last time and then explodes. A singularity never forms and neither does an event horizon. The take home message of her work is clear: there is no such thing as a black hole.”Report

  11. Jaybird says:

    The CEO of A-B speaks publicly:

    Bud Light is ‘coming back’ but controversy is a ‘wake-up call,’ Anheuser-Busch exec says

    New York
    CNN

    Anheuser-Busch InBev’s top marketing executive is speaking out following a monthslong boycott of Bud Light that has cost the brand its title as America’s top-selling beer.

    “When things get divisive and controversial so easily, I think it’s an important wake-up call to all of us marketers to be very humble,” said Marcel Marcondes, Anheuser-Busch’s global chief marketing officer, at a conference on Monday.

    Bud Light sales have tumbled since the company’s partnership with transgender influencer Dylan Mulvaney sparked an anti-trans backlash and calls for a boycott. The company’s tepid response angered LGBTQ+ advocates, and the episode became ground zero in America’s culture wars.

    “It’s tough to see all the controversial and divisive debates happening in the US the last couple of weeks involving lots of brands and companies, including, especially, Bud Light,” Marcondes told an audience at the Cannes Lions International Festival of Creativity. He said brands in this situation should remain open to learning and understanding their customers.

    “He said brands in this situation should remain open to learning and understanding their customers.”

    Seems so strange to see that language used on behalf of fratty guys.Report

    • Pinky in reply to Jaybird says:

      Let me guess. He said it wasn’t their intent to be involved in controversy, they’ll be protecting their employees, and they’re going to recover thanks to a positive marketing campaign? And the article called it something like “breaking their silence” and “turning a corner” even though they’ve said the same thing a dozen times?Report

      • Chip Daniels in reply to Pinky says:

        Yes.
        Inbev will stubbornly, defiantly continue to treat trans people with respect and dignity, and in extreme cases, regard them as equals.

        Sorry.

        Maybe try bomb threats, they way you guys do with children’s hospitals and abortion clinics.Report

    • Kazzy in reply to Jaybird says:

      “Seems so strange to see that language used on behalf of fratty guys.”

      Why?Report

      • Jaybird in reply to Kazzy says:

        Because of the amount of privilege they have.Report

        • Kazzy in reply to Jaybird says:

          Yes, big corporations never kowtow to the already-empowered.Report

          • Jaybird in reply to Kazzy says:

            Did you see the marketing exec’s ideas about moving to the future?

            The company has gone from her comments to what it said in the article again:

            “He said brands in this situation should remain open to learning and understanding their customers.”

            But we still haven’t hammered out whether Alissa Heinerscheid made a mistake! She said that she wanted to move away from the fratty image of Bud Light. She did! And it looks like the fratty people moved away as well.

            *SHE SUCCEEDED*.

            The only real issue is that her goals and the (assumed) goals of the corporation to make money were at odds.

            Which goal is more important? I mean, if being inclusive of as many people as possible is more important than making money, she succeeded by being inclusive of more people than Bud Light was inclusive of prior to her leadership.

            And now we’ve got some CEO saying “we should be open to learning and understanding our customers”. Sounds like Alissa understood them just fine.Report

            • Kazzy in reply to Jaybird says:

              “The only real issue is that her goals and the (assumed) goals of the corporation to make money were at odds.”

              I’d argue that her goals were to make money and she thought this move would help the company make money. In a different era, Bud Light does some brand outreach to the LGBTQ+ community and maybe picks up some new customers and their regular customer base never gets wind of it and buys as usual. They maintain their base and add a new demo.

              She didn’t say they didn’t want young, frat guys to drink their beer; she said she wanted to move away from the fratty, out of touch humor. Those aren’t identical. Where she erred was misreading and misunderstanding how marketing works now. She didn’t mean to choose the LGBTQ+ community OVER frat guys or whatever; she thought she was adding them into the tent.

              It backfired. Horribly.Report

              • Jaybird in reply to Kazzy says:

                I’m going over the recent ad campaigns and I just remember the Cedric the Entertainer ads and the Dilly Dilly ads.

                The Dilly Dilly ads were from 6 years ago (with one crossover with Game of Thrones 5 years ago):

                I don’t know how “fratty” that is. Seems vaguely high concept. Dilly Dilly is from Lavender’s Blue, for goodness’ sake. Less cleavage than I expected, on top of that.

                Before that? I remember the Cedric the Entertainer ads but, jeez, that goes back to when Bush was president.

                I know that the 90’s had some crass stuff but… wait, was the “WASSUP” ad Bud Light?

                Nope. It was Bud.

                Anyway, I’m pretty sure that Bud Light *DID* pick up new customers.

                To be honest, I see Dylan Mulvaney as more of a Bud Seltzer person. Alissa Heinerscheid too, for that matter.

                If the goal is to make money, what she did was a mistake. I would have gone with something like get music from the 1940’s, and then 21 years later. Music from the 1950’s, and then 21 years later. And so on.

                Bud is good for *ALL* generations. And then play the #1 song from 2002. Let’s look it up…

                “How You Remind Me” Nickelback

                Oh.

                You know what? Bud Light could have brought back Nickelback. Show Chad Kroeger with a beer.Report

              • Slade the Leveller in reply to Jaybird says:

                Guys, we’re debating the efficacy of the advertising for one of the worst beers ever brewed. Don’t you think this topic is a bit played out?Report

              • See, it’s also (until recently, anyway) the #1 Beer.

                Being a wino, my tastes run differently. But the efficacy of advertising involves the ability to shoot your brand in the foot and turn the #1 Beer into the #2 Beer.

                Without getting into the merits of the beer itself which, I understand, haven’t changed.

                And I find that stuff *INTERESTING*.Report

              • Kazzy in reply to Jaybird says:

                Well, let’s not pretend this is JUST about advertising.

                As I said, in another place and time, 99% of people don’t even know about the sponorship with Mulvaney. But this was fodder for the culture wars so it got amplified and weaponized.

                They didn’t air this during the Super Bowl and Bud Light customers en masse were so turned off that they chose to buy something else. This went viral and then influential folks told gullible folks that they only right and moral course of action to fight back against (checks notes) Bud Light acknowledging trans people exist was to shoot cases of Bud Light and boycott and whatnot.

                Now, should the marketing execs have been aware of that potential outcome? Absolutely. We aren’t in that other place and time… we are in a place and time where everything can and will be weaponized.

                Let’s see where we are a year from now to see how much folks behavior has really changed when it isn’t the hot topic du jour.Report

              • CHip Daniels in reply to Kazzy says:

                Conservatives insist on talking about Bud Light endlessly, because they want to make it clear that anyone who regards trans people as equal is their enemy to be destroyed and amid the slow marginalization of social conservatism, this was a rare victory.

                A year from now, we will still be hearing them talk about Bud Light, and how for that one shining moment, the world trembled at the power of their bigotry.Report

              • Jaybird in reply to Kazzy says:

                Let’s see where we are a year from now to see how much folks behavior has really changed when it isn’t the hot topic du jour.

                Fair enough.

                But I’m also interested in what the CEO will do in the meantime.

                He sees this as something that should probably be turned around. You saw the most recent commercial, right? They’re trying to thread the needle and, as far as I can tell, they’re failing.

                But there’s no way to be sure.

                (And, seriously, I’m surprised that it’s still the hot topic du jour. The controversy started in *APRIL*!!! THAT’S AN ETERNITY AGO!!!)Report

              • Marchmaine in reply to Jaybird says:

                The “Dilly Dilly” campaign will find it’s place in future History of Ideas PhD dissertations as a successor meme to Wassup that was greeted with ironic recognition, but which failed to achieve its desired goal.

                …scholars will disagree whether it was because it was trying too hard, or just doing its best.Report

              • InMD in reply to Marchmaine says:

                And those PhD candidates will be real men of genius. Maybe even real American heroes, depending on whether we are over 9/11 by then.Report

              • Marchmaine in reply to InMD says:

                Heh. Meanwhile competing scholars:

                Yeeting the Most Interesting Man in the World into LITERAL space: Why consumers opted to stay thirsty.

                Expanded from my original peer reviewed article:

                Going from “Sharks have a week dedicated to Him” to who’s this a**hole?Report

              • Pinky in reply to Kazzy says:

                But let’s be honest here, she was saying a lot more than that. She may have been talking in contemporary business speak, but it’s also contemporary woke speak. When she praised “inclusivity” she wasn’t just talking about what an earlier generation of businessmen would have called a target market. You and I know she wasn’t thinking of expanding the brand among Korean-Americans or turning Bud Light into “The” brand among barbershop quartet aficionados.

                Also, all the information that we know just by hearing, it matches the way she acted.

                Was she explicitly mocking frat boys? No, but she was using the language of those who do. Of those who believe that “inclusion” includes the minorities but not the majorities. And going back to this point that few OT’ers seem to get, Dylan Mulvaney is a mockery of the female. It’s not incidental to his brand, it is his brand. He’s another Lia Thomas: men are the best at everything, including being women. Even those who might not have been able to articulate the nature of the attack noticed it, and I’m impressed that they stood up against it.Report

              • InMD in reply to Pinky says:

                I said at the outset of this that there is a very reasonable perspective that what Dylan Mulvaney is doing is a pretty vicious mockery of women that would probably be frowned upon in a lot of other contexts, like, I dunno, if it was a bunch of frat guys doing their journey to becoming girls.

                Now, is that what people making a big stink over this are really protesting about? I don’t really know. While I’m always bemused by what is clearly to me woke folx experiencing the natural consequences of their ideology it’s also hard for me to get into the headspace of someone so angry about it they would take action. But I also wasn’t a bud light person to begin with.Report

              • Jaybird in reply to InMD says:

                My caffeinated beverage of choice is Diet Pepsi Wild Cherry.

                I’ve never seen it in a restaurant. If I want to drink it, I have to buy a case of it. As such, if I go through a drive-thru anywhere, I will easily switch to Diet Coke or Diet Pepsi or Diet Dr. Pepper. My preference for Diet Pepsi Wild Cherry is a mild preference.

                Indeed, there was a year there where local grocery stores didn’t carry it at all. It was mildly irritating but not, you know, lifechanging or anything.

                If PepsiCo came out tomorrow and started some dumb-assed ad campaign that started saying “We don’t want people like Jaybird buying our product! We prefer SKINNY people to drink Diet Pepsi!”, it wouldn’t be a big deal to switch to Diet Cherry Coke.

                “Taking Action” involves walking a little further down the aisle I’d be walking down anyway and getting a 12-pack from this shelf section instead of getting it from that shelf section.Report

              • InMD in reply to Jaybird says:

                Oh yea, I hear you (and of course by ‘bemused’ above I meant ‘amused’ damn autocorrect). I have my little brand loyalties too and if the message they started sending me was ‘sorry, not for you, and by the way you were always kind of problematic anyway’ I’m sure I’d move on, even if I wouldn’t make a big show of it nor would I waste ammo on whatever the thing I’m abandoning is in a TikTok video.Report

              • Jaybird in reply to InMD says:

                Okay. Here’s where I’m going to break down the ad campaign thing. It involves some light psychoanalysis of Alissa Heinerscheid.

                She busted her butt in college and busted her butt in internships and busted her butt paying her dues at the lower levels and, finally, landed a *DREAM* position.

                She was in charge of advertising for Bud Light. The #1 Beer in America.

                Seriously, there are no shortage of people who would *KILL* for this position.

                She got it. And you know what? When she hung out with her friends, they made fun of her for it. “Oh, Bud Light? That’s so Fratty!” “Bud Light? You don’t actually drink it yourself, do you?” “I can’t believe you spent all that time in History of Modern Art classes and now you’re selling beer with bikini babes!”

                She might have pointed out that the last time bikini babes were used was when Spuds McKensie was the original party animal but, let’s face it, the “Yes I Am” guy, the “Gimme a light… Bud Light” stuff, and, yes, the “horse farting” commercial were *ALL* low-brow.

                “You actually work for those people?”

                She wanted to make an ad campaign that her friends at the cosmo bar would praise her for.

                And here we are.Report

              • InMD in reply to Jaybird says:

                I think your hypothesis about her educational and career trajectory are probably right, but I have my doubts about the interpersonal motivations. One of the things I’ve noticed when recruiting junior lawyers in the hoity toity DC area is that the better the pedigree, the more certain words, phrases, and framings show up in the resumes and cover letters. In fact reading through applications for interns as I recently was, I was really amazed to see how strongly going to an elite school correlated with intersectional everything, to the point that the more elite the school the more woke everything was, from activities to how they described themselves and their interests.

                What it really hammered home to me is that what we’re seeing is a lingua franca of the elite and upwardly mobile. While I’m sure there are some true believers out there, I think it is an open question how much people actually care about this stuff in anything more than the most superficial ways. It’s just how they talk, and how they have been rewarded for talking, with the good grade or with the internship, or whatever else in their educational and early professional careers.

                The problem comes when they run into normal people, who aren’t in on the game. That’s what I think happened to Heinerscheid. All this sh*t she says sounds great to other people in the know. She has been taught to say it, and it has always advanced her career, right up until now.Report

              • Jaybird in reply to InMD says:

                She got her dream job for a product she held in contempt.

                And it shows.Report

              • Pinky in reply to InMD says:

                I wouldn’t know how to guess the depth of her belief. She spoke the part, and likely grew up insulated from people who believed differently. You, me, and Jaybird should all agree on that. Beyond that, it wouldn’t be surprising if she had contempt for the average Bud Light drinker. But did she deliberately alienate her brand’s customer base in pursuit of a better class of people in exchange for her professional future? I doubt she thought of it that way. I’d guess she expected to just put another straw on the camel’s back.

                I brought up Disney earlier because they’ve been doing nothing but Mulvaneys for about five years, and it seems to me that they’ve got to realize the damage they’re doing to their company. They can’t even see the camel any more under all that straw. It’s the difference between the Kent State kids and a Biko or Mandela.Report

              • Chip Daniels in reply to InMD says:

                “…experience the natural consequences of their ideology ”

                Explain for us what these “natural consequences” are. What makes them “natural”?

                Like for instance, if I said that Theo Van Gogh “experienced the natural consequences of defaming the Prophet Mohammed”, would everyone here find it equally amusing?Report

              • InMD in reply to Chip Daniels says:

                Of course not Chip. Theo Van Gogh was murdered. No one should ever be murdered.

                But yea, get in the habit of telling people they suck, and they might start to think you suck too and not buy your beer. Yeesh.Report

              • Chip Daniels in reply to InMD says:

                Exactly what is the difference though?

                When a Proud Boy tries to violently disrupt a drag brunch, how is this different than Muslims violently attacking a Satanic Verses reading?

                And here again, you see Bud Light acknowledging Dylan Mulvaney as an equal as an attack on conservatives.

                This just pure bigotry. That her existence as an equal citizen is an affront, meriting a “natural” reaction.Report

              • InMD in reply to Chip Daniels says:

                I am pretty confident you understand the difference between not buying a beer and killing somebody.Report

              • Philip H in reply to InMD says:

                These two things are rooted in the same bigotry though.Report

              • InMD in reply to Philip H says:

                Is it? I’m not really sure I agree. I feel pretty comfortable saying from what I’ve seen that Mulvaney is a gay man engaged in a form of performance art. He doesn’t need my or anyone’s validation of it, and in a free society he can do what makes him happy. Now, pair that performance art with a marketing exec that at least says she holds contempt for the traditional consumers of her product, i.e. fratty dudes, and you may well find yourself selling less of that product. But it’s quite a few leaps from there to someone going out and committing murder.

                Maybe to give a clumsy parallel, I am hoping against hope that I might be able to see the band Ghost when they play here later this year. They do performance art too, where the singer pretends to be some kind of evil pope, trying to use his band’s sick tunes to convert everyone to the devil. It’s pretty stupid and cliche but the songs are so catchy I can’t help myself. Not that there’s any danger of this happening, but if someone asked them to endorse a product in character I can imagine people more devout than I am having a problem with it, and not wanting to buy whatever was endorsed, maybe even feeling a little betrayed if it was something where they had some brand loyalty built up over many years. And that’s even when there is zero social pressure from any corner to believe that the band is actually what they pretend to be when they play to audiences of idiots like me that are entertained by this sort of thing.

                But none of them would be remotely in the same place as someone who decided to try to kill the members of the band for spreading the word of the devil or whatever. Really I don’t think they’d be doing anything wrong at all.Report

              • Jaybird in reply to InMD says:

                If you only look at intentions but don’t look at outcomes, don’t they have a lot in common?Report

              • InMD in reply to Jaybird says:

                If the lore is to be believed Ghost had to relocate some of their recording from TN to Hollywood because they couldn’t find a choir willing to perform portions of their lyrics.Report

              • Jaybird in reply to InMD says:

                Bake the Cake!Report

              • Chip Daniels in reply to InMD says:

                OK lets go with that then.

                If I said “The store I go to had a guy at the cash register, who was wearing a yarmulke/ cross. So as a consequence I will never set foot in that store again.”

                If I said this, most reasonable people would call me a bigot. No reasonable person would say “Well, it amuses me when Jews/Christians experience the natural consequence of their ideology”.

                Why treat transgender people any differently?Report

              • Jaybird in reply to Chip Daniels says:

                Have you bought any Bud Light in the last two months, Chip?Report

              • CJColucci in reply to Jaybird says:

                If he has good taste in beer, he hasn’t bought any in years.Report

              • Jaybird in reply to CJColucci says:

                We actually have people who enjoy Bud on the board, believe it or not.

                You can’t argue matters of taste.

                That said, if someone has the attitude of “I would never buy Bud Light”, feeling that those other people should buy it always strikes me as odd.

                For what it’s worth, I have no problem with others not doing stuff that I wouldn’t do.

                But if I thought that America Should Support Budweiser, I’d buy a case of Bud.Report

              • CJColucci in reply to Jaybird says:

                Of course you can argue about matters of taste. People do it all the time.
                But you’re the one who asked whether Chip had bought Bud Light in the last few months. Presumably, you thought this had some bearing on something. But if Chip wasn’t a Bud Light drinker before the Mulvaney brouhaha — very likely as he seems to have good taste — then his continuing his normal consumption patterns has nothing to do with anything and, therefore, your comment was pointless. Which wouldn’t be the first time.Report

              • Jaybird in reply to CJColucci says:

                I think it has to do with “Supporting Budweiser” and, by extension, whatever spokesperson the corporation has this week.

                For what it’s worth, as someone who hasn’t had a Bud in years, I’m not surprised, confused, or angered by other people not having one.Report

              • CJColucci in reply to Jaybird says:

                When you decide what you say actually has to do with rather than what you think what you say has to do with, let us know.
                Or maybe make it clear up front.Report

              • Jaybird in reply to CJColucci says:

                I honestly think that if a Person P is upset that some third party is not purchasing Product X, Person P should purchase that product.

                If they are not inclined to purchase Product X, it makes no sense to be upset that someone else is also not purchasing it.

                Seriously.

                Chip seems to be upset at all of these bigots out there not purchasing Product X.

                He ain’t buying it either. For what it’s worth, I don’t blame him. I prefer Red Wine, myself.Report

              • CJColucci in reply to Jaybird says:

                See, now that wasn’t so hard, was it? An intelligible thesis, clearly expressed. Now people can decide whether they agree, disagree, or just don’t care. Unless avoiding proof of the third alternative is the point of doing it differently.Report

              • LeeEsq in reply to Chip Daniels says:

                There are lots of people on the Further Right and Further Left who go “well, it amuses me when Jews experience the natural consequences of their ideology”, this usually revolves around something to do with Israel and the fact that there are hundreds of millions or billions of people in the world that want Israel totally gone. Israel is used as a pretext to attack Jews that don’t live in Israel and about issues that have nothing to do with Israel. Any Jew that fails to totally denounce Israel/Zionism is open to attack. You also still have a lot of Jews control the world rhetoric.

                Liberals and the Center Left overlook this if the person giving the anti-Semitism is somebody they would rather not criticize like an African-American or a Muslim. Usually just blink your eyes, call it mere anti-Zionism, and move on.

                Look at all the times Jews in general and Israeli Jews in particular are told just to not take things to literally where some Arab dictator or Iranian mullah or something is sounding off about “Death to Israel” or “Death to Jews” despite Jews being the target of one of the most well-known genocide in the world.Report

              • InMD in reply to LeeEsq says:

                Just to be clear, the ‘experiencing consequences of ideology’ was in reference to Heinerscheid, not Mulvaney.

                Heinerscheid was the person deploring the nature of bud light drinkers. As far as I know Mulvaney has never said anything bad about anyone with respect to this controversy.Report

              • Jaybird in reply to InMD says:

                Mulvaney has picked up endorsement deals since it happened.

                Cha-ching!Report

              • InMD in reply to Chip Daniels says:

                I’d say in most situations it’s pretty dumb not to buy a widget from a person over the religious beliefs of the cashier but that it’s also part of life in a big multicultural country.

                But! I actually am really interested in your hypothetical and where it’s going! What if instead of a Christian or Jew it was a Scientologist? What if bud light was endorsed by Tom Cruise in full Xenu regalia? Would it be ok for people to find that offputting, or would we condemn it as religious bigotry?Report

              • Chip Daniels in reply to InMD says:

                I didn’t ask if it was “dumb”.
                That’s a cop out.

                I asked if an organized boycott of a Christian/ Jewish owned store counts as bigotry.

                Because your question about Scientology makes it seem like you are just drawing protective lines around religions and cultures you are comfortable with and demanding tolerance, but then excluding ones you don’t.Report

              • Karl Schmidt in reply to Chip Daniels says:

                We would like to note that Christians and Jews do this differently. They make lists of approved people to buy things from. They do not actually put the other people on lists. Instead, you get excluded by virtue of “not going to the right church.”

                If you want to say that every Jew who would never buy meat from a shiksa is bigoted, then yes, it’s bigotry. Just the same as your bigotry about White Men or Conservatives or Christians. (Please note: the bigotry about “not following the laws of kashrut” is likely to be a well-established generalization).Report

              • InMD in reply to Chip Daniels says:

                Actually it’s backwards. I’m saying what’s good for the goose is good for the gander.

                As to whether these kinds of individual consumption questions are bigotry in the United States of America in 2023? I answer ‘meh.’ You could create a hypothetical where the one Jewish family in town is boycotted to the point of having to close shop and leave and I’d say, yes, that’s bigotry, but we’re so many orders removed from that with bud light that calling it bigotry would cause the word to lose all meaning.

                Now I answered your question but what about mine? If your favorite pancake mix was endorsed by a prominent Scientologist would you feel it is ok for people to be turned off by it and not buy the brand or should they suck it up and keep purchasing so as not to be bigots?Report

              • Chip Daniels in reply to InMD says:

                Your boundary between “Bigotry” and just “matters of personal choice” seem arbitrary and convenient.

                The idea that “‘I don’t like Jews’ only counts as bigotry if it has serious results” seems like a poor principle to stand on.

                And honestly I really doubt you would feel the same if you were on the receiving end.

                As for your question, sure I would happily buy things endorsed by Scientologists.

                And its weird that you even choose this as your example, since although their beliefs are weird to me, they’re no weirder than evangelicals and I mean that sincerely.
                But it reinforces my contention that your parameters of tolerance extend only to things which are already safely within the “unchecked category”.Report

              • InMD in reply to Chip Daniels says:

                I think everybody’s personal choices in a consumerist society are arbitrary and convenient. And fair enough that the Scientologists don’t get your goat, I guess, I can respect that.

                But if your definition of bigotry is so broad that it extends to not buying consumer goods due to endorsement by people whose metaphysical belief systems or subjective morality you disagree with then virtually everyone is a bigot. While I understand you might wholeheartedly agree with that assertion, if it’s true, it reduces bigotry to something so totally meaningless and inconsequential that no one should bother to care about it.Report

              • Chip Daniels in reply to InMD says:

                not buying consumer goods due to endorsement by people whose metaphysical belief systems or subjective morality you disagree with then virtually everyone is a bigot.

                YES!

                That’s the very definition of bigotry!Report

              • Philip H in reply to Pinky says:

                And going back to this point that few OT’ers seem to get, Dylan Mulvaney is a mockery of the female. It’s not incidental to his brand, it is his brand. He’s another Lia Thomas: men are the best at everything, including being women. Even those who might not have been able to articulate the nature of the attack noticed it, and I’m impressed that they stood up against it.

                Wow.

                I don’t think I’ve ever seen someone roll misogyny, transphobia and homophobia up so neatly before. You almost deserve an “Atta boy.” for your wild bigotry.

                Neither Dylan Mulvaney nor Lea Thomas are trying to prove or state or imply that men are “better” at being women then women. They are trying to live their lives as their fully authentic selves. That you and other – who allegedly follow the teaching of tolerance in the New Testament – remain so intolerant to and of them is rapidly becoming inexcusable.Report

              • Pinky in reply to Philip H says:

                You understand that I’m not making the claim that “men are the best at everything, including being women”, right? I’m describing that as an underlying theme in the misogyny displayed by Mulvaney, Thomas, et al.Report

              • Philip H in reply to Pinky says:

                You continue to call them both “he and him.” And you said nothing to disagree with this alleged line of attack. You also have a long track record around here of misogyny and transphobia. Hence why you continue to assert – even here – that trans women are just men trying to be “better women.” You agree with the attack even if you won’t outright say so.Report

              • Pinky in reply to Philip H says:

                They’re both men and I speak English, so I’m going with “he and him”. And I have no idea what saying nothing to disagree with an alleged line of attack even means, except that it sounds Kafkaesque.Report

              • Philip H in reply to Pinky says:

                They’re both men and I speak English, so I’m going with “he and him”.

                Aside from your own misogyny and transphobia, on what basis do you conclude they are men? What gives you the moral right to make that statement? And ow are you displaying your Christian compassion by continuing to address them as such?Report

              • Pinky in reply to Philip H says:

                I’ve never analyzed their crotches or their genes, so I don’t know that they’re men. A person born as a man or identified as a man at birth can only be a man or intersex, although I should note that the vast majority of intersex people clearly present and identify as male or female. If they’re claiming to be trans, that is to be changing, then they’re wrong.

                As a Christian I don’t want to encourage confusion. I have a lot of compassion for a person who’s so messed up as to not know his sex. I find lying about it to be a lack of compassion. Considering we’re raising a generation of sad, suicidal kids, and sex and gender are definitely causes of confusion for young adults, I don’t see how a Christian can easily take the position you have.Report

              • Philip H in reply to Pinky says:

                Sex is not gender.
                That’s your first mistaken assumption.

                Trans people are not “messed up” or confused about their gender. That is your second wrong assumption. They are crystal clear that the gender assigned at birth – based entirely on external genitalia – is not aligned with their psychological or emotional understanding of themselves. Continuing to force them to live at the assigned gender after that point is what causes so many to self harm, including suicide.

                The Christian position – as taught Christ’s gospels, not church dogma – is to extend compassion to people where and how they are. Not to force them into living in a way that increases harm. That means accepting people as they are – including calling transgendered person by their preferred pronouns. So continuing to call a transwoman He or Him is to REMOVE compassion and acceptance. It is to FORCE them to conform to your assumptions. Because it is to deny their full selves. TO deny them their humanity.

                Christ called for radical acceptance of children, lepers, and women in a time when none of them were considered to exist as separate humans in society with worth beyond their relationships to men. He rebuked believers for being less compassionate to strangers then non-believers. He advocated for the humanity of hookers and slaves.

                Calling a transwoman “She” is the least, easiest thing a Christian can do in this instance.Report

              • Pinky in reply to Philip H says:

                I didn’t say that sex is gender, nor that anyone is confused about his gender.

                Christ never encouraged people to live as they are.
                He found them as they were, and encouraged them to repent from their sins and follow Him. In saying this, I’m not saying that gender confusion is a sin. I do consider steering a person toward gender confusion to be sinful though. Especially today, when people are ruining their futures.

                Calling a man who claims to be a woman “she” is arguably the most un-Christian thing a person can do.Report

              • Philip H in reply to Pinky says:

                How is allowing a person to live as they are steering them toward gender confusion?

                Transgender women don’t claim to be women. They are women. It’s only the small minded, the fearful who continue to believe otherwise.

                And if being transgender is not a sin, then Christ meeting people where they are means Christians meeting people where they are. There’s nothing to repent of.Report

              • Chip Daniels in reply to Pinky says:

                As always, every accusation is a confession.

                All the complaints about Orwellian political correctness are being enacted by conservatives themselves.

                Trans people are “confused”, you see, and we need to help them see the error of their ways by refusing to accept them as they are and forcing them to wear the correct clothing and hair styles.

                This is why we need a monitor at each restroom and gym to inspect everyone’s genitals. Its for your own good to make sure you are thinking correctly.

                And anyone who deviates must be punished with public censure and bankruptcy if necessary.Report

              • Mister Kim in reply to Philip H says:

                Can you please tell yourself these things? I mean, really, extending compassion to people isn’t hitting them with the kudgel of being “transphobic” “racist” or other bad things, in order to FORCE compliance with your version of the world.

                Either we all get our own opinions, or we have to abide by YOUR opinion. The second is a totalitarian hellscape, so let’s not choose that one, hmmm?Report

              • CJColucci in reply to Mister Kim says:

                There are people who talk, and there are people who make and enforce laws. Only one of these is potentially “FORCE” or a “totalitarian hellscape.”Report

              • John Puccio in reply to Philip H says:

                It’s sort of a weird argument to insist that “trans people are not confused about their gender”. Being born one sex (no sex is not “assigned”, as if some other had agency in the decision) and identifying as the opposite “gender” must be one of the most confusing situations a human can experience. Whatever process one goes through in reaching a point where they have “decided” they are X and not Y, it certainly must be rife with confusions of all sorts. To deny that this process, realization, transformation – is confusing – doesn’t seem based in practical reality.

                That’s why gender-affirming care is such a ridiculous statement. Given your definition of gender, how can anyone possibly know what they are really? Gender has been rendered a meaningless term. It’s not an identity, it’s a mood.

                You’re sad? Here’s a pill. You’re a boy who wants to be a woman? Here’s a puberty blocker.

                That’s your idea of progress?Report

              • Philip H in reply to John Puccio says:

                My idea of progress is people I care deeply about being able to live their lives as they fully are, not trying to stuff themselves into roles assigned to them by others that take them to the brink of suicide. Once a transperson is able to live as they are – be it transman or transwoman, their mental health improves dramatically, and they are no longer suffering from the “confusion” that you describe. Just like may idea of progress is for my lesbian daughter to be able to live and love as she fully is, not forced into a heterosexual relationship that is doomed because that presentation makes a few people more comfortable. These battles are personal for me because they concern real flesh and blood humans in my life. And as long as a certain part of our body politic rants and raves about individual freedom and liberty while actively seeking to prevent people from achieving that liberty and freedom, we are back sliding, not progressing.

                So I will continue to fight and continue to press because for me it’s both political and personal.Report

              • John Puccio in reply to Philip H says:

                Completely agree with your first statement. As long as they are adults, people can do whatever they want. Your second sentence makes giant assumptions, but ok. Your third sentence conflates gay and trans. Gay (or straight or Bi) is based on sexual attraction. That’s a self-evident reality. It also doesn’t require an individual to consider doing irreversible damage to one’s body. This is where your argument goes off the rails. Again, if you are an adult and want to artificially change your biology – go right ahead. But allowing children to do such things? Again, is that progress?Report

              • Chip Daniels in reply to John Puccio says:

                So…tell us your thoughts on circumcision.Report

              • Philip H in reply to John Puccio says:

                MY third sentence was in regards to OTHER attacks currently underway. I am very clear on the differences. Again – these are people in my life not internet abstracts.

                But allowing children to do such things? Again, is that progress?

                Since those kids are doing so with the support and consent of their parents and their medical providers and psychologists – yes it is because it means they won’t grow up tortured souls who are more likely to dies by their own hands.

                If parents are free to make decisions about what their kids read and don’t read and learn and don’t learn, the least we can do is support those parents and those kids in dealing with significant medical decisions shouldn’t we?

                Put another way – it is sick, twisted, delusional hypocrisy to assert that a single parent has the power to have books removed from schools and public libraries (and thus denied to other children of other parents) because that parent doesn’t want their kids to read something, but at the same time criminalize when parents assert their authority to provide the best medical and psychological care for their kids.

                Both are significant immoral assaults on personal liberty and freedom from a political party that touts individual liberty and freedom. It is sick, twisted, fascist and fear driven and deserves no quarter in what’s left of our democracy.Report

              • John Puccio in reply to Philip H says:

                You are expanding the scope of this discussion to things I don’t disagree with you about. Conflating reading lists with chemical castration of children does not help your argument.

                There are a lot of things we don’t let children do, with or without parental consent.

                For me, it is “sick and twisted” to trust a 12 year old to definitely *know* they are something as amorphous as a specific “gender” and advocate for biological augmentation to “affirm” that current belief. What if Billy is gay and confuses that with being a girl. Is that really so hard to imagine? Adolescence is a confusing time for almost everyone. I don’t understand how this opinion is fascist.Report

              • Philip H in reply to John Puccio says:

                Those “confused” children are 86% more likely to think about suicide when they are bullied for their transgendered status, denied gender affirming care and emotionally neglected by their families for being transgendered. They are 40% more likely to attempt suicide then their peers for those same reasons. SO preventing them from receiving the care they and their parents seek increases harm measurably.

                No transgendered youth is given any gender affirming care without parental consent. None is given hormonal treatments without extensive medical and psychological evaluation and on-going support. No child has – to my knowledge – undergone sexual reassignment surgery, which means that any hormones administered and their side effects are fully reversible. It also says a great deal about your lack of knowledge of the transgendered experience that you continue to conflate normal questioning about sexual attraction (am I gay) with gender dysphoria as experienced by transgendered people. They do not have the same root psychological sources; they are not addressed societally or medically the same way.

                And where your beliefs are fascist is in support of GOP politicians who seek to interfere with parental rights to provide standard of care to transgendered teens through laws. Just as it is fascist to allow a single parent the authority to remove books they disapprove of from schools and public libraries, it is fascist to create legal, criminal penalties for parents who are trying to help their children deal with serious and often fatal mental and emotional challenges. Thankfully the courts appear willing to check these impulses for now.Report

              • Pinky in reply to Philip H says:

                From what I understand, Jazz got the transition operation at age 17. Puberty blocking has long-term effects. Top surgery is performed regularly on minors. The NHS is moving away from all of the above due to the lack of scientific support.Report

              • Philip H in reply to Pinky says:

                not quite. What they are doing is continuing to seek informed consent, continuing to have practitioners look to both psychological wellbeing and development, and somewhat restricting hormone therapy. They are not passing laws calling this child abuse (as Texas and Florida did). I’d actually be ok with the approach the NHS is using – provided it was being delivered in a single payer setting.

                https://segm.org/England-ends-gender-affirming-careReport

              • Pinky in reply to Philip H says:

                They seem to consider it a marked change from an American-style approach. If this is accurate, the American system uses “scarce and inconclusive evidence to support clinical decision-making”. The system that you regularly defend fails to recognize that “many gender-dysphoric adolescents suffer from mental illness and neurocognitive difficulties, which make it hard to predict the course of their gender identity development”. If anyone but the NHS was “strongly discouraging social gender transition in prepubertal children” you’d call them fascists.Report

              • Philip H in reply to Pinky says:

                You can strongly discourage a thing without passing laws making it criminal child abuse. You can strongly discourage reading a book without physically removing it from a library shelf. The GOP in the US is passing laws to do both those things. It is the use of the force of law to intervene that makes it fascist.Report

              • John Puccio in reply to Philip H says:

                Compared to those in the sample with no history of gender-affirming treatment, receiving treatment with hormones (OR = 0.2, 95% CI (0.1, 0.5)) or breast augmentation surgery (OR = 0.3, 95% CI (0.1, 0.6)) were associated with lower odds of ever having thoughts of suicide or attempting suicide. Individuals who received genital surgery did not have a statistically significant difference from those who did not receive gender-affirming treatment. The results were adjusted for age and race/ethnicity. There was no correction for any potential relationship with psychiatric diagnostic history, psychiatric treatment, substance use, or time elapsed since gender-affirming treatment, increasing the likelihood that the statistically significant results were vulnerable to a high risk of type I error.

                https://www.cureus.com/articles/145464-suicide-related-outcomes-following-gender-affirming-treatment-a-review#!/Report

              • InMD in reply to John Puccio says:

                I think you and Pinky are more likely than not to be proven right over the long term, though unlike Europe the lines on our medical standards for something like this are more likely to be drawn by the plaintiff’s bar than public authorities, which work differently here. However it’s important to remember that there is at least an empirical question about what the right thing to do is for a minor whose mental state is persistently and profoundly at odds with the reality of his or her physical body. The answer may well be ‘nothing until adulthood’ but at least we have something that could be tested, and one day perhaps answered with some certainty.

                The reason all of this is coming up though, is the insistence by some institutions, primarily, but not only, public schools, on imposing a bunch of woo woo, pseudoscience, and secrecy about their own procedures that are only at best tangentially related to the very narrow question of what is the right approach for that vanishingly tiny number of individuals. It isn’t like there hasn’t been research into the subject going on for decades, and no one really cared about it right up until all that latter stuff started showing up in elementary school curriculums.Report

              • Philip H in reply to InMD says:

                No InMD, the reason this is coming to a head is Texas and Florida and other states are passing laws making parents criminals for giving a good g*dd@mn about their kids. Its bad enough those states are telling me I can’t decide for myself that my kids can read Amanda Gorman; but to tell me I am a criminal for seeking treatment for my kid if it becomes necessary is a line too far.Report

              • Pinky in reply to Philip H says:

                The Left innocently pushes and pushes and pushes and pushes then the majority push back a little, and you identify the majority as the instigators.Report

              • Philip H in reply to Pinky says:

                declaring a parent a criminal for pursuing standard of care for their gender dysphoric child is not a “little” pushback. And its not the majority. Republicans make up 28% of voters nationally.Report

              • Pinky in reply to Philip H says:

                Only Republicans oppose the current treatment methods? That’s not true.

                Going back to a point you haven’t responded to: to you consider top surgery to be appropriate for minors?Report

              • Philip H in reply to Pinky says:

                Its not my job – nor yours – to make declarations of things being appropriate or not appropriate for anyone but my own kids. There may indeed be cases where it is appropriate, but much like abortion, its none of my d@mn business. Yours either.

                And yes – Republicans oppose current treatment standards because Republican legislatures in Republican states are making it a criminal offense for parents to seek treatment for their children. Republicans in Florida also made it a criminal offense for adults to continue treatment.Report

              • Pinky in reply to Philip H says:

                You don’t believe your paragraph one.Report

              • Philip H in reply to Pinky says:

                yes, I very much do. Why would you assume otherwise?Report

              • Pinky in reply to Philip H says:

                Your first sentence essentially contradicts your second one, unless you’re giving some authoritative meaning to the word “declaration”. Otherwise you’re saying that some things are appropriate but no one can say that some things are appropriate.

                Moving on: do you consider breast removal reversible?Report

              • Philip H in reply to Pinky says:

                yes. Not with the original tissue mind you but yes.Report

              • Chip Daniels in reply to InMD says:

                If conservatives were forced to live under their own professed principles, they would react with violence.

                The modern religious liberty movement began with conservatives demanding the right to feed peyote to minors. And many conservatives themselves mutilate their children’s genitals because a sky god told them to.

                These OK only because of the same liberalism and tolerance that conservatives want to crush.

                Imagine subjecting parochial school curriculum to the same standard as conservatives set for gender affirmation and support.Report

              • InMD in reply to Chip Daniels says:

                Hey, I agree with you! And I think that’s why some of these laws are ultimately going to run into serious constitutional problems. But it’s also the reason that the state can’t endorse spiritual concepts like gender identity that have no basis in empirical fact, in public schools or wherever else.

                And while I know Philip disagrees with me I don’t think there’d be much traction on this subject outside of hard right socons but for the fact that it’s been attached to an evangelical post Protestant social movement that insists on official validation.Report

              • Chip Daniels in reply to InMD says:

                States actually DO “endorse spiritual concepts like gender identity that have no basis in empirical fact”.

                There is no empirical fact that demands that the gender assigned at birth is the only option available. Yet states do and always have endorsed this spiritual idea.

                And what liberals are calling for is for the state to stop doing this, and allow people to decide for themselves.Report

              • John Puccio in reply to Philip H says:

                Fully reversible? No damage, psychologically or physically? You sure about that?

                It takes a lot of hubris to be so convinced you are right that you are willing to let children be experimented upon.Report

              • Chip Daniels in reply to Philip H says:

                But at least the mask is off and they aren’t hiding behind “Just asking questions” or “groomers”.

                Its just straight up “Those people are living in a way we disapprove of and they must be stopped.”Report

    • Philip H in reply to Damon says:

      USCG plans a press briefing at 3PM EDT on this.

      As a reminder – the submersible was one hour and 45 minutes into a two hour descent when contact was lost. It was reportedly design to drop all its ballast after 24 hours if it hadn’t resurfaced, and has not been reported to do so. I have further thoughts, but I’m not going to speculate here.Report

  12. Damon says:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_j6tO0kWTBk&ab_channel=DailyMail

    “Missing Titanic submarine was ‘shoddy’ and I pulled out at the last minute”

    This guy claims that there was no plan for certifications to achieve the depth they were going to, nor for multiple dives to that depth. Time stamp: .56

    W
    T
    F?Report

    • North in reply to Damon says:

      Paging professor Darwin.Report

      • InMD in reply to North says:

        That’s what I keep thinking. The more I read about this the more shocking it is that anyone went out in this thing. I wonder if the passengers had any idea.Report

        • Philip H in reply to InMD says:

          At a briefing currently underway, USCG and the Navy report finding what they believe are two pieces of the pressure hull. This would be consistent with am implosion at depth. There were likely never survivors as an imp0losion at that depth would kill in a literal instant.Report

        • Kazzy in reply to InMD says:

          Who you gonna trust… the government and their “certifications” or the other billionaires who can do no wrong?Report

          • Chip Daniels in reply to Kazzy says:

            “Move fast and break things.”Report

          • InMD in reply to Kazzy says:

            I’m not even totally sure what the government would do about this. I suppose you could prohibit commercializing underwater tours that don’t meet code. But at a certain point if a person wants to build a rickety contraption and drop themselves to the bottom of the ocean I’m not sure what could be done to stop it. I assume whatever is left of the guy’s company will soon be hearing from the attorneys of the passengers’ surviving kin.Report

            • North in reply to InMD says:

              It’s in international waters so even if you try and make a regulation good luck applying it outside your borders. Of course the Americans could pull it off by saying “if you don’t follow our regulations in international waters and something goes wrong we won’t come rescue you” which might be sufficient to snap billionaire idiots heads around- but far from certain.Report

              • InMD in reply to North says:

                While I am sure they would have absolutely loved to bring the people back alive, my guess is the powers that be in the coast guard and various rescue organizations view this as a useful, low stakes training exercise and chance to test equipment they rarely ever deploy.Report

              • North in reply to InMD says:

                That sounds cynically plausible to me. I still hope they bill’m tho.Report

              • Philip H in reply to North says:

                They won’t. There’s no legal way for USCG to do so, nor the Navy. Private craft brought to bear by USCG will be reimbursed by the government, but may seek additional compensation form Ocean Gate.Report

              • North in reply to Philip H says:

                Oh, well they’ll get bupkiss then since they’ll be in line with all the other creditors for a soon to be hollowed out shell of a company.

                I read somewhere one of the lost rich folks families sais “Spare no expense, we’ll pay for it all!” And had hope for a moment.Report

            • Kazzy in reply to InMD says:

              Oh, I’m not arguing on behalf of regulation or anything. Rather, lots of folks are wondering how these guys could make such a stupid, risky decision. To me, I think it is rather obvious: folks who attain the position they do often do so because they’ll flout customs and norms and take big stupid risks that pay off.

              This time, it didn’t. Fatally, unfortunately.Report

              • Damon in reply to Kazzy says:

                Not bothering to get certifications, using a game controller to steer the sub, other examples of shoddy work/poor design? It was either arrogance, ignorance, or stupidity, or some combo. As to those paying for the trip, where was their due diligence? (this wasn’t a tour company tour) One guy had the smarts to apparently change his mind and not go.Report

              • Slade the Leveller in reply to Damon says:

                I just read that one of the viewports was only rated to 1300 meters. Not even half the depth of the Titanic.Report

              • Kazzy in reply to Damon says:

                This is where I return to my original comment. Due diligence? Hey man… we’re BILLIONAIRES! Bad things don’t happen to us!

                I would go with “All of the above” as regards arrogance, ignorance, and stupidity.Report

              • Damon in reply to Kazzy says:

                Here’s James Cameron commenting….

                https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LEBCc-Qpilw&ab_channel=DailyMail

                You know, if I’m a billionaire, sure my phrase is “make it happen”…but I’m not arrogant enough to ignore safety when it’s my own neck on the line.

                Well, the gene pool is better off….Report

              • Brandon Berg in reply to Kazzy says:

                To me, I think it is rather obvious: folks who attain the position they do often do so because they’ll flout customs and norms and take big stupid risks that pay off.

                This seems superfluous. Poor people make stupid, self-destructive choices that flout norms all the time. Do we really need a theory to explain why rich people sometimes do as well?Report

          • Philip H in reply to Kazzy says:

            There are international bodies that certify submersibles for deep ocean work. They require significant engineering and in water unoccupied testing followed by occupied testing. The research submersible fleet supported in the US by NSF routinely undergoes these inspections, as do the submersibles operated by most of the world’s oceanographic agencies and Navies. Yes its a cumbersome and expensive process, but it works.

            Separately there are two other regulatory schemes to be brought to bear – the insurance industry and the commercial shipping bureaus, which operate under the International Maritime Organization. These are the mechanisms that enforce the International Convention of the Law of the Sea, and all the countries who responded to this incident are signatories to those agreements.

            Again, other scientific and commercial operators all adhere to these rules for good reason. This implosion will no doubt result in some hand wringing, but little regulatory change as the system works quite well when you follow it.Report

  13. Philip H says:

    First, federal courts struck down the Arkansas law banning transgender treatment support for minors. Now they have done so in Florida.

    U.S. District Judge Robert Hinkle declared the state’s practices invalid, saying they violated the constitutional right to equal protection under the 14th amendment in addition to violating the federal Medicaid statue and the Affordable Care Act’s prohibition of sex discrimination.

    The injunction was expected after Hinkle on June 6 partially blocked Florida from enforcing its recent ban on people under 18 receiving gender-affirming care such as puberty blockers and hormone therapy.

    U.S. district court judges elsewhere have blocked state laws banning gender-affirming care in Alabama, Arkansas, Indiana and Oklahoma.

    https://www.reuters.com/legal/us-court-strikes-down-florida-transgender-health-rule-2023-06-22/Report

  14. LeeEsq says:

    The Kim regime in North Korea remains a big global problem without much of a solution. The BBC managed to do some A+ reporting and get contacts in North Korea. It turns out that the COVID pandemic is brought North Korea to brink of collapse more so than anybody else on the planet.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/extra/bskbb4rmae/inside-north-korea?utm_source=pocket-newtabReport

  15. Philip H says:

    “In Sum, the States have brought an extraordinarily unusual lawsuit,” Kavanaugh wrote, in an opinion joined by Chief Justice John Roberts, and Justices Sonia Sotomayor, Elena Kagan and Ketanji Brown Jackson. “They want a federal court to order the Executive Branch to alter its arrest policies so as to make more arrests. Federal courts have not traditionally entertained that kind of lawsuit; indeed, the States cite no precedent for a lawsuit like this.”

    Justice Neil Gorsuch, joined by Justices Clarence Thomas and Amy Coney Barrett, wrote a concurring an opinion that concluded that the states also lacked reasoning, but for different reasons than the majority opinion. Justice Samuel Alito dissented.

    https://www.cnn.com/2023/06/23/politics/biden-supreme-court-immigration-republican-lawsuit/index.htmlReport

    • Chip Daniels in reply to LeeEsq says:

      And as always, the pertinent takeaway here isn’t that all Republicans quote Natsees.

      But all Republicans are cool with people who quote Natsees.Report

  16. North says:

    https://www.politico.eu/article/putin-in-crisis-as-wagner-chief-prigozhin-declares-war-on-russian-military-leadership/

    There might, emphasis on MIGHT, be something huge happening in Russia. It’s possibly this is nothing. Yevgeny Prigozhin has been full of it many many many times before but this isn’t something you can posture at and walk back afterwards. If he’s said the stuff he’s said (and by all apparent accounts he has) the possible outcomes are he wins or he’s dead.

    I am struggling with this; likel; I fear to even consider giving it credence because a Russian civil conflict of significant size right in the midst of a Ukrainian offensive is just… I don’t know… too good to be true? LIke do we live in a timeline where this is possible? Or is there some way this all goes to crap? I suppose is Prigozhin is too successful and somehow we end up with that nut controlling the nuclear button… or maybe a total chaotic scrum?

    Even in those worst case scenarios I struggle to see how this isn’t good news for Ukraine but I hope ol’ Uncle Joe has all his experts working overtime this weekend.Report

  17. Jaybird says:

    Huh. This might be the end of the world.

    Report

    • North in reply to Jaybird says:

      You owe me a beer. But, heck, if this turns out to be substantive we can both drink several in delight.Report

      • Jaybird in reply to North says:

        I’ll crack some wine, just in case.Report

        • North in reply to Jaybird says:

          Holy fish. Wagner has taken Rostov. If they fish things up there the whole Russian logistics chain into Ukraine could implode. Do we actually live in a timeline bright enough for this to fishin happen!?!?Report

          • InMD in reply to North says:

            I’m not sure how to link to it but search for (((Tendar))) on twitter. It’s as best as I can tell account based in Germany. I’ve been following it for a while and it has yet to be wrong about anything. It’s reporting Wagner units have advanced north and taken another town, possibly have shot down Russian military aircraft.

            One thing to keep in mind in terms of Prigozhin’s leverage- Rostov is the main artery to supplying Crimea over the Kerch bridge, which Ukraine damaged last fall. It’s a big choke point for the Russian military in southern Ukraine.Report

            • North in reply to InMD says:

              Thanks InMD.Report

            • North in reply to InMD says:

              Professor Freedman has excellent long thoughts on the matter. I agree with him that this isn’t a coup- it’s a mutiny.

              https://samf.substack.com/p/prigozhins-mutiny?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=631422&post_id=130568843&isFreemail=true&utm_medium=emailReport

              • InMD in reply to North says:

                Great link and thanks for sharing. I have to confess I’ve been watching all of this obsessively. WW1 and the revolutionary period in Russia are major points of interest to me. I never make predictions and think it’s always better to assume we know less about what’s going on in Russia than we think but it’s hard not to hear some echoes from those periods.Report

              • North in reply to InMD says:

                Agreed, I’m struggling to wrench myself away as well. Daily kos #Ukraine is pretty good for someone who hates twitter. I am trying, trying, to temper my expectations and hopes but this feels… I don’t know… extra historic.

                I cannot IMAGINE how the Ukrainians are feeling right now. Probably, healthily, suspicious. But the Russians just have to crack somewhere along that line and the Ukrainians just have to find it. If they get all that mobile armor and infantry vehicles the west has given them behind the Russian defensive lines the whole RU offense will roll up like an unglued carpet.Report

              • InMD in reply to North says:

                I have to think the Ukranians are pleased, and history is replete with moments where those that weather a storm no one thought they could suddenly find themselves with unexpected opportunities.

                To me those commenters willing to humbly follow developments are the ones worth listening to. I myself was pretty skeptical of Ukraine at the beginning of all of this and figured they were the incohesive corrupt rump state everyone said they were but the facts are the facts. While I try not to get into it with the trolls I’m finding that the realist community and Russian sympathizers are the ones who sound more like Donald Rumsfeld as time goes on, wedded to a theoretical perspective increasingly disconnected from reality. Even without a collapse of the Russian army or Hollywood ending for Ukraine there’s no way to paint this as any kind of net success for Russia. It’s already an even bigger disaster for them than Iraq or Afghanistan were for us.Report

              • InMD in reply to InMD says:

                I’m not sure if you’re human or machine but this kind of assertion doesn’t really matter, even if it is true. What matters is what it says about the Russian economy and war machine, that it’s been unable to overwhelm what on paper should have been a beatable adversary. The worse, and weaker Ukraine is, the more damning the conclusions one must reach about Russian capabilities.Report

  18. Jaybird says:

    This is how bad it’s gotten:

    Report