Reverse Causality

Mike Coté

Mike Coté is a writer and podcaster focusing on history, Great Power rivalry, and geopolitics. He has a Master’s degree in European history, and is working on a book about the Anglo-German economic and strategic rivalry before World War I. He writes for National Review, Providence Magazine, and The Federalist, hosts the Rational Policy podcast, and can be found on Twitter @ratlpolicy.

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28 Responses

  1. LeeEsq says:

    I do not know what the Palestinians want at this point. I mean I know what they want in broad strokes but not in detail. Like if you gave Palestinian leadership a bunch of maps, pens, papers, and diagrams and told them to write down what they want concretely, I’m not sure that they would be able to come up with anything. The Palestinians probably know that they can’t destroy Israel or get all the Jews to go home but they seem to really want something that will act as a vindicating victory rather than a negotiated settlement. They want Israel to suffer some sort of defeat that will chase them from the WB with their heads between their knees and for the world to agree that they the Arab, preferably Muslim, Palestinians are the real true inhabitants of the area and the Jews are not no matter how long a particular Jewish person had family living in the area.Report

    • Philip H in reply to LeeEsq says:

      I think they want the 1949 declaration of a Palestinian state – with secure borders, trade rights, etc, without having to admit they gravely miscalculated in not signing the declaration when offered. They do want the world to see them as a legitimate state – which would include Israel withdrawing settlements that are illegal under Israeli law – and probably paying some reparations for that damage and destruction.Report

      • LeeEsq in reply to Philip H says:

        I think that is what they realistically expect but if they could they would take the entire thing without any Jewish or at least a greatly reduced Jewish presence. There is a substantial minority that probably still believes that no Israel and no Jews is the only true just solution. I’m also sure that they want something that looks like a victory for them and defeat for Israel plus not having to reach a formal agreement, so they don’t have to have diplomatic relationships with Israel. Even the most sympathetic Israeli government is going to find this a hard no.Report

  2. Chris says:

    I’m trying to think how you think adding this “context” is gonna help. Are people gonna be like, “Storming the mosque and beating worshippers is very bad, and they shouldn’t have done it,” and then you tell them, “They stormed it because some people threw fireworks at them from nearby,” after which they’re gonna be like, “Oh, well then, those worshippers deserved to have their asses kicked!”?Report

    • Dark Matter in reply to Chris says:

      Israel is dealing with groups that have a na.zi level of anti-Semitism and who are openly genocidal. Spinning them into the plucky underdog whose rights are being trampled by an oppressive state does no one any favors.

      About 21% of Israel’s population are Arabs. If Israel wanted to attack Arabic civilians they wouldn’t have to look very hard. There are zero Jews living in the places these other groups control because any Jews subject to them will be killed.

      “Genocidal” isn’t a word I use lightly. One of the groups has that as part of their charter and every now and then they’ll have someone explain they’re serious. That works well with their terrorizing civilians and their view that all Jews are legit targets.

      Them being genocidal civilian targeting terrorists is the context of all this, and imho it “helps” a lot.Report

  3. Mike Coté says:

    Who knew that shooting off fireworks at police from inside a mosque was a traditional form of Islamic worship? You learn something new every day.Report

    • Chris in reply to Mike Coté says:

      I’m sure you’re better at convincing people than I, but I remain dubious that people who, even after reading your entirely fair and balanced post, are still thinking, “You know, police beating worshippers because some people shot fireworks at them is still very bad” are gonna be convinced by this sort of sarcastic response.Report

      • Philip H in reply to Chris says:

        His whole post is a sarcastic dig at anyone who doesn’t voice full throated support for any and all excess by the Israeli state. As is the case from nearly all good conservative these days, since Israel can do no wrong and the Palestinians can do no right.

        Its of the same cloth as the NRA’s refusal to howl at black men being killed for legally carrying.Report

        • LeeEsq in reply to Philip H says:

          Do the Palestinians have no agency? They have been trying the same tactics for a long time under many successive Israeli governments with no success. Their leaders never say what they want accept make the most maximalist demands and offer not even a cold peace in return. They demand,. along with the rest of the Muslim world, demand complete and absolute respect from the Jews while crapping on us as a religion and a people. Imans across the world say the most anti-Semitic things to their congregations and everybody ignores this. The Palestinians and their allies would be screaming bloody murder all the time if Rabbis would talk about Islam and Muslims the way that they talk about Judaism and Jews. They act as if the concept of a unified Muslim world from the tip of Morocco to the tip of Indonesia is the most natural thing with blasphemy laws and other elements of theocracy everywhere while saying that Jews can have no place of our own and that Jewish self-determination is a colonial imposition.Report

          • Jaybird in reply to LeeEsq says:

            Asking why the brown people resent being occupied by the white people to the point where they’re willing to engage in Antifa tactics against the occupiers is really, really showing off your privilege here.Report

            • LeeEsq in reply to Jaybird says:

              I know you are doing your usual Socratic thing but most Israeli Jews are descendants of people who would be considered not-White if they weren’t Jewish. The Ashkenazi Jews tend to be a lot more sympathetic towards the Palestinians/Muslims than the Mizrahi Jews. Try telling the average Palestinians and average Israeli apart just by looks.Report

              • Jaybird in reply to LeeEsq says:

                Perhaps you don’t understand “Whiteness”. That’s okay. A lot of people pretend to not understand it.

                It’s not just about whether you are more likely to tan or burn after 20 minutes in the sun.

                Here is an opportunity to educate yourself.

                The indigenous Palestinians have been treated poorly. I understand wishing that they were better sports about it. But there is stuff that would probably work better than complaining about how they need to be held to a higher standard.Report

              • LeeEsq in reply to Jaybird says:

                There were Jews living in that place to. It isn’t like you had long periods of No Jews and then suddenly Jews appear and imposed themselves on the place. This is how groups try to have it both ways with us. They like to appeal for our support because of our history but at the same time look the other way as Jewish communities that are hundreds or thousands of years old get destroyed overnight because anti-colonialism or some other such goal is more important. Indigenous is such a useless concept.Report

              • Jaybird in reply to LeeEsq says:

                Hey, if you ask me, Israel is an island of Western Civ in a part of the world that seems stuck centuries ago.

                My inclination is to support Israel a *LOT* more than the barbarians in the Gaza Strip. But Israel does itself absolutely no favors by acting like there’s an intifada when there’s not one and by treating Palestinians like second-class citizens.

                9/11 bought them a *LOT* of goodwill when fighting against Arafat’s stupid fanaticism but 9/11 is a long, long way in the rear-view mirror.Report

              • InMD in reply to Jaybird says:

                I’m with Lee that trying to parse the situation through the language and lens of American identity politics and leftist pseudo-history is of pretty limited insight. Where I probably disagree with him (and what the OP studiously ignores) is that the existential threat to Israel is entirely within. It’s territorial security is guaranteed not only by its advanced Western conventional military technology and doctrine but its nuclear weapons.

                The fundamental failure of Israel is to use the space those enormous advantages give it to solve the political problem of the disenfranchised Palestinians in the territory it controls. Instead its in a slow reversion to the regional mean, i.e. just another sectarian state in thrall to its most fanatical religious zealots, willing to use them as a weapon when convenient but unable to control them when it needs to. They get a little more like their neighbors every day, a trend that is sure to accelerate and that may no longer be reversible.Report

              • Jaybird in reply to InMD says:

                Ah, but American identity politics and leftist pseudo-history is ascendant and will not wane until something significant happens… like the dollar ceases to be used as the Petrodollar.Report

              • Dark Matter in reply to InMD says:

                to solve the political problem of the disenfranchised Palestinians in the territory it controls

                The solution may be worse.

                Israel’s yardstick for success will be many dead Jews does it create. That’s baked into the cake.

                The Arabs there being genocidal predates the occupation. That’s not a fringe view for them, it’s mainstream.

                The strong implication is the better Israel treats them, the more dead Jews they’ll have. Gaza got self rule and instantly and constantly goes to war with Israel.

                The only “solution” I can see to square this circle is… Israel takes what land it wants and can defend, kicks out the people it doesn’t want, and understands that it needs to live with genocidal neighbors where it’s going to need to have really nasty wars every now and then.

                So rather than having a Gaza level war every decade it has a Ukraine level war.

                The good news would be we don’t have disenfranchised Palestinians. The bad news is the entire situation would be a LOT more bloody.Report

              • InMD in reply to Dark Matter says:

                This is totally disconnected from the actual geopolitical situation. It isn’t 1967 anymore. No state in Israel’s vicinity is remotely capable of inflicting a genocide on it and any that came close would be devastated by Israel’s strategic nuclear weapons, not to mention maybe become at war with the United States well before such a thing occurred. Israel also has relatively normalized relations with Egypt, Jordan, and a number of the gulf states. The Palestinians themselves are a handful of bees against an elephant and their allies are poor, weak countries like Iran and Syria. They can inflict a little momentary pain but not much else and certainly not anything like a Ukraine level conflict.

                So, yes, it’s unresolvable if you start from the premise that Israel is under threat of being wiped off the map. The problem is that’s an objectively ridiculous premise, and treats idle threats made by mostly powerless actors as the same as if they had the means to carry them out.

                The real problem is the conflict between Israel’s liberal democratic aspirations and its own ever growing population of ethno-nationalist religious fanatics.Report

              • Dark Matter in reply to InMD says:

                No state in Israel’s vicinity is remotely capable of inflicting a genocide on it…

                Very true. Israel, as a whole, is in no danger of destruction from these groups.

                However “genocidal” is a good description on where their heads are at. That makes peace undesirable or impossible.

                A stronger more prosperous Gaza results in more dead Jews, not fewer. That’s the political challenge right there.

                The real problem is the conflict between Israel’s liberal democratic aspirations and its own ever growing population of ethno-nationalist religious fanatics.

                This is a problem and not a small one. However it’s only lightly linked to the Palestinians.

                If Israel had a partner for peace, then they could stand up to their fringe. However the political evaluation is since the Palestinians are going to insist on Israel’s destruction no matter what Israel does, there’s no point in even trying to make them happy so they might as well be unhappy with less.Report

              • LeeEsq in reply to InMD says:

                I don’t think Israel is in existential threat. I don’t think that the Palestinians should be allowed to achieve independence without entering into an actual negotiated deal. If you pay close attention to Palestinians and their supporters, it is clear what they want is for somebody to make Israel leave the West Bank, they know they can’t do it, without them having to enter into any agreement with Israel. This means that the hardliners don’t have to be dealt among other things.

                The world essentially just wants Israel to deal with the occasional Palestinian terrorist attack and missile barrage with a stiff upper lip when they would not tolerate such activities aimed at them.Report

              • LeeEsq in reply to InMD says:

                Regarding the application of American identity politics and leftist history or pseudo-history to Israel-Palestine, these things are basically inevitable. Most people are going to see everything through the lenses they are familiar with unless they are really broad minded or well-educated. I do this, you and Jaybird probably do this at times. So for activists in the United States to code Jews as white and Palestinians as not white is just something that will make a lot of sense to them.

                On the other blog, somebody noted that the white-black divide is so big in the United States that it acts as sort of blackhole that just absorbs everything else even if the United States as nothing to do with it.

                An additional difficulty is that Jews don’t really fit very well into how the Left or the Right sees race. The big drive at both sides is to put everything into a broad spectrum between White and Black and have different groups fall somewhere on them. So East Asians are closer to White while Native Americans are closer to Black. Most Jews, including Mizrahi Jews, come across as white but there are only 15 million of us and you can’t deny the Jewish history of experiencing persecution. At the same time, it is difficult for non-Jews to see Jews as anything but white and they don’t think we have a special way of being the way an indigenous person might be seen as having a special way of being.

                Jewish battles about what it means to be Jewish don’t help. Many Jews would be happy if Jews were nothing more than a mere religious group that one can enter and leave. Other Jews insist on Jewish nationhood/peoplehood and say even if you are atheist who doesn’t do anything religiously Jewish, you are a Jew and fooling yourself if you believe otherwise.Report

              • Chip Daniels in reply to LeeEsq says:

                The Israeli/ Palestinian conflict reminds me of the Irish Troubles.

                In that conflict, I regularly heard similar descriptions where domestic American politics were overlain on Ireland- The IRA were regularly described as agents of Communism, the British were the fascists, depending on the flavor of your politics.

                And likewise, Americans described the situation as hopeless and a stalemate which could only be broken by some genocidal slaughter.

                Until it wasn’t.
                Things were were considered unthinkable became thinkable, things which were entirely unacceptable became acceptable.

                There are obvious differences but the similarities are that the people involved can make different choices than they are.
                From way over here it is easy to ascribe some essentialist identity which is somehow baked into their DNA and which prevents them from finding a way to coexist but that simply isn’t so.

                I think Americans tend to want to do some sort of lazy handwaving over a complex problem because it makes it easy on us.Report

              • Dark Matter in reply to Chip Daniels says:

                You’re not wrong. In theory we could have peace break out tomorrow… but…

                They’re further away from peace. Picture The Troubles with:
                1) foreign states actively egging on one of the sides with funding and religious/social/other support.
                2) fighting over control over “holy land”.
                3) one of the sides being openly genocidal to the point where civilians from the other side can’t survive living in their territory.
                4) A large numbers of “refugees” who have their lives on hold waiting for the destruction of the other side.

                Anyone who makes peace with Israel needs to explain to the refugees that they’re screwed, and that person will probably be killed. They have nothing to lose by continuing the conflict and everything to lose by making peace (if that peace doesn’t involve Israel’s destruction).

                IMHO a pre-condition for peace is to close the refugee camps and then wait a generation for life to go on and tempers to subside.

                On the Israeli side they need to figure out what land they’re going to keep and how to either leave the Palestinians with a State (which means some of the settlements aren’t viable) or to convince/force/pay them to leave. They need to set their boarders.Report

              • LeeEsq in reply to Chip Daniels says:

                I’m not as pessimistic as Dark Matter but the Israeli-Palestinian conflict involves some mythic elements that the Irish Troubles lacked or were a lot less present. Israel is an official Little Satan for a billion plus people and a lot of conspiratorial anti-Semitism exists with this.Report

  4. Uri Goldmann says:

    If the Jews lived in Israel for time immemorial, why don’t the Mizrahim control the Judiciary? or have more than token representation (singular)? Ashkenasic Jews are racist, it’s really that simple.Report