TSN Open Mic for the week of 1/16/2023

Jaybird

Jaybird is Birdmojo on Xbox Live and Jaybirdmojo on Playstation's network. He's been playing consoles since the Atari 2600 and it was Zork that taught him how to touch-type. If you've got a song for Wednesday, a commercial for Saturday, a recommendation for Tuesday, an essay for Monday, or, heck, just a handful a questions, fire off an email to AskJaybird-at-gmail.com

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128 Responses

  1. Chip Daniels says:

    Climate change is here, and the water wars are beginning:

    Arizona city cuts off a neighborhood’s water supply amid drought

    Some living here amid the cactus and creosote bushes see themselves as the first domino to fall as the Colorado River tips further into crisis. On Jan. 1, the city of Scottsdale, which gets the majority of its water from the Colorado River, cut off Rio Verde Foothills from the municipal water supply that it has relied on for decades. The result is a disorienting and frightening lack of certainty about how residents will find enough water as their tanks run down in coming weeks, with a bitter political feud impacting possible solutions.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2023/01/16/rio-verde-foothills-water-scottsdale-arizona/Report

  2. Jaybird says:

    CNN reports the following:

    The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said Friday that there is a possible safety issue with the bivalent Covid-19 vaccine made by Pfizer and BioNTech but that it is unlikely to represent a true risk. The agency said it continues to recommend that people stay up-to-date with Covid-19 vaccines.

    The CDC said one of its vaccine safety monitoring systems – a “near real-time surveillance system” called the Vaccine Safety Datalink – detected a possible increase in a certain kind of stroke in people 65 and older who recently got one of Pfizer’s updated booster shots.

    Here is the part that has me wondering:

    Of about 550,000 seniors who got Pfizer bivalent boosters and were tracked by the VSD, 130 had strokes in the three weeks after the shot, according to a CDC official who spoke to CNN on condition of anonymity because they weren’t authorized to share the data. None of the 130 people died.

    What were the numbers for when the J&J shot was pulled?Report

    • Jaybird in reply to Jaybird says:

      Oh, those numbers are out there:

      On April 13, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, as well as the Food and Drug Administration, recommended providers pause on administering the Johnson & Johnson/Janssen COVID-19 vaccine after more than 6.8 million people in the United States received the one-dose vaccine. It comes after six women who received the vaccine experienced blood clots in the brain within two weeks after vaccination.

      Report

    • Chip Daniels in reply to Jaybird says:

      You’re doing the Creationist thing again, where you have arbitrary and fluctuating standards for credibility, depending on whether you like it or not.

      The CDC apparently goes from being “Credible” to “Not Credible” in the space of a single sentence.

      They state that “there may be a possible safety issue” and we are supposed to accept that this is a truthful and accurate statement.

      They go on to state that this isn’t a serious problem and people should continue to get boosters.

      This claim apparently is not credible, and must be subjected to rigorous independent verification.

      And in this case, “rigorous independent verification” apparently means “a half assed and amateurish comparison to some other metric which may or may not make any sense at all.”

      Like, why should we believe the first CDC claim, but doubt the second? You can’t seem to summon up any consistent standard for credibility, other than what fits your priors.Report

      • CJColucci in reply to Chip Daniels says:

        You can take the boy out of the YEC, but you can’t take the YEC out of the boy. Early habits and training die hard.Report

      • Jaybird in reply to Chip Daniels says:

        The CDC apparently goes from being “Credible” to “Not Credible” in the space of a single sentence.

        You’re seeing things as a binary instead of a gradient.

        What happens when you see things as a gradient instead of a binary?

        They go on to state that this isn’t a serious problem and people should continue to get boosters.

        Was it a serious problem when the J&J shot got pulled?Report

        • Chip Daniels in reply to Jaybird says:

          Ahh, so maybe the CDC makes errors sometimes, but is overall a good source of information?

          Wish I’d said that!

          Which leaves us all with the problem of how we can determine when the CDC should be trusted and when it should be challenged.

          In an earlier exchange, you mentioned checking with other sources to see if they aligned, or contradicted the claim.

          Are there sources other contradicting the CDC’s claim that we should continue to get boosted?
          Are these other sources themselves credible?Report

          • Jaybird in reply to Chip Daniels says:

            Ahh, so maybe the CDC makes errors sometimes, but is overall a good source of information?

            Oh, is that what you see when you look at it as a gradient rather than a binary?

            Which leaves us all with the problem of how we can determine when the CDC should be trusted and when it should be challenged.

            I don’t think that the CDC should be trusted to the point where we say it should never be challenged.

            Do you?Report

            • Chip Daniels in reply to Jaybird says:

              No, which is why I generally rely upon other sources to check and verify, or challenge, the CDC.

              Are there any other sources contradicting the CDC, in this instance? If so, are they themselves credible?Report

              • Jaybird in reply to Chip Daniels says:

                Are there any other sources contradicting the CDC, in this instance?

                Contradicting them on what?

                Whether the vaccine causes an increased chance for certain kinds of stroke?

                Whether people should get the Pfizer booster if they’re over 65?

                Lemme tell ya, I’ve never been gladder to be Ride-Or-Die with Moderna.Report

              • Chip Daniels in reply to Jaybird says:

                At this point, honestly, it doesn’t matter.

                You made a couple posts “just asking questions” and “wondering” and doing some amateur armchair statistics, but even after prompting, offered nothing that would cause any reasonable person to doubt the CDC advice to stay up to date with their boosters.Report

              • Jaybird in reply to Chip Daniels says:

                I’ve never said that I was “just asking questions”.

                but even after prompting, offered nothing that would cause any reasonable person to doubt the CDC advice to stay up to date with their boosters.

                I’m not asking any reasonable person to doubt the CDC’s advice.

                I do think that reasonable people might conclude that our level of certainty is not to the point where it is for, say, handwashing before surgery or polio vaccines, though.

                Like to the point where they might conclude that it’s a bad idea for people who do not follow CDC guidance on vaccines to be punished.

                In the same way that we have seen Leana Wen evolve on masks, I think that we will see the CDC continue to evolve on these very particular vaccinations.

                Like to the point where they start to agree with some of the equivalent to the CDC that exists in other, lesser, countries.Report

              • Chip Daniels in reply to Jaybird says:

                The level of certainty regarding the safety and efficacy of vaccine mandates seems pretty solid to me.

                Has anyone else here seen anything that would cause them to rethink vaccine mandates?.Report

              • Jaybird in reply to Chip Daniels says:

                If I am talking about the particular Pfizer vaccine and not vaccine mandates in general, does that matter?

                Like, will you continually pretend that I’m talking about polio and measles vaccines even though I’m specifically talking about the Pfizer?

                Is there anything I could say to get you to stop doing that?

                Because, if not, I’m going to continue to not answer your poorly framed question about “vaccine mandates” and respond with a comment like this one.Report

              • Chip Daniels in reply to Jaybird says:

                I thought you were talking about whether “it’s a bad idea for people who do not follow CDC guidance on vaccines to be punished.”

                Even if it isjust the CDC guidance on Pfizer bivalent Covid vaccine and nothing else, I’m not seeing any reason not to follow the CDC guidance that we continue to enforce mandates while the CDC continues further investigation.Report

              • Jaybird in reply to Chip Daniels says:

                I’m not seeing any reason not to follow the CDC guidance that we continue to enforce mandates while the CDC continues further investigation.

                Well, the EMA seems to have wandered away from compulsory vaccination.

                I know that you don’t see any country’s guidance as being worth the time of day when compared to the superior American one, but I do know that there are *SOME* people in the world who see Europe’s health bureaucracy as less captured than the US’s.

                But we’ve hammered on this before.Report

              • Chip Daniels in reply to Jaybird says:

                I thought you were just talking about the particular Pfizer vaccine and not vaccine mandates in general.

                But look, if your assertion is that “it’s a bad idea for people who do not follow CDC guidance on vaccines to be punished” you have two problems:

                One, there isn’t much punishment to begin with in the US for not being vaccinated- as evidenced by the large number of unvaccinated people who still conduct ordinary lives. Most “punishment” amounts to employer pressure which is barely above exhortation.

                Second, both the CDC and EMA and every leading medical authority in the world strongly supports the vaccine.

                Third, the cost of not being vaccinated is still very high- people are still dying of Covid at a rate of about 3 thousand every week.

                So looking at both things together, its hard to arrive at your conclusion.Report

              • Jaybird in reply to Chip Daniels says:

                Chip, there is a difference between “supports the vaccine” and “supports punishing people who do not take it”.

                I do the former.
                I do not do the latter.Report

    • Pinky in reply to Jaybird says:

      Some quick math:
      about 800k strokes per year
      about 75% of those among seniors = 600k per year
      about 56 million seniors in the US = 1.07% chance of senior having a stroke in a given year = .062% chance of a senior having a stroke in a given 3-week period

      Out of 550k seniors, we’d expect about 340 to have a stroke in a given 3-week period. The recipients of the shot suffered about 1/3 that many. Either I messed up my math, or the vaccine is 67% effective against strokes, or something’s been misreported.Report

      • Jaybird in reply to Pinky says:

        Yeah, it’s weird that the CDC screwed up the math that badly.Report

        • Pinky in reply to Jaybird says:

          Sure, it’s either the CDC or the structure of math itself that’s wrong, couldn’t be CNN.Report

          • Jaybird in reply to Pinky says:

            Well, CNN linked to this report from the CDC.

            Here’s an excerpt:

            Following the availability and use of the updated (bivalent) COVID-19 vaccines, CDC’s Vaccine Safety Datalink (VSD), a near real-time surveillance system, met the statistical criteria to prompt additional investigation into whether there was a safety concern for ischemic stroke in people ages 65 and older who received the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 Vaccine, Bivalent. Rapid-response investigation of the signal in the VSD raised a question of whether people 65 and older who have received the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 Vaccine, Bivalent were more likely to have an ischemic stroke in the 21 days following vaccination compared with days 22-42 following vaccination.

            No change in vaccination practice has been recommended.

            That said, I’m glad I got Moderna instead of Pfizer.Report

            • Michael Cain in reply to Jaybird says:

              That said, I’m glad I got Moderna instead of Pfizer.

              My wife and I both got the Pfizer this time (after four Moderna doses each). More than 21 days ago, no strokes. Not that we’re particularly candidates for strokes from the usual risk factors: blood pressures are good, no family histories of stroke, all the non-invasive kinds of tests they do for artery health that we happen to have had look fine.

              This isn’t a big enough risk for me to spend much time on.Report

              • Jaybird in reply to Michael Cain says:

                I thought that the J&J shot risk was miniscule at the time.

                They paused the shots, though.Report

              • Philip H in reply to Jaybird says:

                Its nice that some of you had a choice initially. Its lovely that that choice replicated itself across the boosters.

                One hopes you continue that have that option.

                Some of us got what we got, and we’ve had to ride or die with that ever since.Report

              • Jaybird in reply to Philip H says:

                When asked by my GP about whether I got the Bivalent Booster, I informed her “yes! All Moderna!”

                She told me that they now recommend that the boosters be mixed up from what you got before. Like, if you got a Moderna original pair for Alpha, they want you to get Pfizer boosters (or vice-versa).

                I don’t know if that’s the general consensus out there in the real world or anything but that’s what my GP told me back a few months ago.

                Ask your doctor!

                (Here’s where I told this story back in December, even.)Report

              • Philip H in reply to Jaybird says:

                When I got my initial vaccine I got Pfizer because that’s what the National Guard was using that week at the big county-wide drive up vaccination site. When I went for my first booster after they became available, the Walgreen’s folks would only give me Pfizer because that matched what I had previously. My wife has consistently had Moderna. Few folks I know down here have had J&J.

                When I go for my next booster next week – I have a lot of travel for work beginning in March so it makes sense to me to get boosted before I go – we will see what transpires.Report

              • InMD in reply to Philip H says:

                My initial was J&J and I ended up being boosted with J&J Fall 2021 but believe that was just chance of where I went. I got a booster in the fall and they gave me Moderna. At this point I think they just give you whatever is on hand.

                I also tested positive for covid yesterday (got it in June too) but symptoms are very mild. Soon I assume I will naturally produce antibodies for all eternity with no outside assistance.Report

  3. Jaybird says:

    More Twitter files. These involve Pfizer.

    Report

  4. Philip H says:

    When you marinate your political party in the rhetoric of violence, you tend to get actual violence:

    Peña, 39, allegedly hired the men to carry out the shootings of the elected officials, all Democrats, and gave out the politicians’ addresses over the phone. Police also have surveillance footage and witnesses, according to Albuquerque Police Chief Harold Medina.

    https://www.npr.org/2023/01/17/1149464953/new-mexico-shooting-politicians-solomon-penaReport

  5. Chip Daniels says:

    “I’m from the government and I’m here to help you!”

    1. Karen Bass this week made good on her campaign promise to tackle the homelessness issue by clearing a massive encampment of homeless people in Venice, moving them to shelters and long term housing in motels.
    https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2023-01-11/mayor-karen-bass-inside-safe-venice-homeless-encampment
    Savanna Moran took about an hour to weigh the offer made by homeless outreach workers: Move into a warm motel room about a dozen miles away — but in exchange, give up her tent on Hampton Drive.

    After years of living on the streets, the 30-year-old was ready to make a change. Heavy rain was on the way, and she didn’t want to be out in it.

    When the time came, Moran and her boyfriend held on to their phones, headphones, bicycles, audio speakers and some of their clothes. They recorded a video for the city agreeing to let sanitation crews toss everything else, including the tent.

    By Monday evening, organizers of the Inside Safe operation had relocated 82 people, with all but two of them moving into motels. By midday Tuesday, only nine tent structures remained on 3rd, with a 10th on Hampton.

    With the Venice operation now in its second week, housed residents in the area have showered Bass and Park with praise. Venice resident Connie Brooks, who has been contacting City Hall about the encampment since 2019, said she feels a “tremendous weight” has been lifted.

    2. Gov. Newsom initiates a program to provide care for the mentally ill:
    Los Angeles County is on track to join the first wave of counties this year launching a sweeping plan backed by Gov. Gavin Newsom to address severe mental illness by compelling treatment for people who are in serious crisis.

    The governor’s office announced Friday that Los Angeles County would kick-start the new program known as CARE Court (for Community Assistance, Recovery and Empowerment) by Dec. 1, a year earlier than expected.
    Los Angeles County is on track to join the first wave of counties this year launching a sweeping plan backed by Gov. Gavin Newsom to address severe mental illness by compelling treatment for people who are in serious crisis.

    The legislation was initially meant to address the state’s homelessness crisis through the auspices of California Health and Human Services and be administered by county agencies. But requiring these agencies to address homelessness — with sanctions if court-ordered housing is not provided — was a hard sell, said Dr. Veronica Kelley, director of behavioral health services for Orange County.

    So the CARE Act evolved, and when the legislation was signed in September, it focused not so much on homelessness but on helping individuals with schizophrenia and associated disorders. Many behavioral health departments then decided it would be in their interest to be in the first set of counties to implement the program.

    When a funding measure for the CARE Act was passed in the fall, it allocated $88 million in new funding for implementation of the court-based system.

    In his January budget proposal unveiled on Tuesday, Newsom set aside another $52 million to continue helping counties and courts implement the new program, with plans to ramp up funding to nearly $215 million by fiscal year 2025-2026.

    These are not panaceas, but also not simply rousting homeless people from one streetcorner to the next. They are providing real measurable improvements in the lives of people.Report

    • Jaybird in reply to Chip Daniels says:

      $215 million to help with schizophrenia and associated disorders?

      How many people is this intended to help?

      An interesting contrast to the first story that mentioned the number of people helped but not the cost of the program.Report

      • Chip Daniels in reply to Jaybird says:

        How much is the budget for your local superior and municipal courts, and how many people is this intended to help?Report

        • Jaybird in reply to Chip Daniels says:

          Well, I’m not sure that “putting people on trial for crime” maps 1:1 for “helping people with schizophrenia” but I suppose we could start with asking “how many people are employed by the local superior and municipal courts?”

          And then say “well, look… *THESE* people are helped!”

          Do we want to do that for the CARE court?Report

          • Chip Daniels in reply to Jaybird says:

            What would be your desired metric of success for either system?
            How would you assess the cost of the status quo, so as to compare it to the change at some future time?Report

            • Jaybird in reply to Chip Daniels says:

              What would be your desired metric of success for either system?

              “Number of people employed” is measurable. Maybe we could say “We’re providing jobs to tons of people!” and use that as a metric of success.

              How would you assess the cost of the status quo, so as to compare it to the change at some future time?

              I suppose that that’s a good point too. Maybe look at unemployment numbers? Then we could lower unemployment numbers by hiring more people.

              If it comes to something like “improve homelessness” or something like that, I think it might be possible to figure out costs or something and say “$100,000/homeless person is an outstanding number and it gives an ROI that is 100% worth it!” and “$1M/homeless person is absurd. Practically money laundering.”Report

              • Chip Daniels in reply to Jaybird says:

                A good start, but keep working.
                Get back to me when you have this fleshed out and we can probably get somewhere.Report

              • Jaybird in reply to Chip Daniels says:

                Well, that’s why I wanted more information. Here, I’ll repeat myself:

                $215 million to help with schizophrenia and associated disorders?

                How many people is this intended to help?

                An interesting contrast to the first story that mentioned the number of people helped but not the cost of the program.

                Report

              • Chip Daniels in reply to Jaybird says:

                You don’t even know how to quantify “help”.

                Like, if one mentally ill homeless person is moved off the street, how many people does this help?

                You need to figure that out first.Report

              • Jaybird in reply to Chip Daniels says:

                Let’s say it helps 1.2 people. Let’s say it helps 1.3.

                And now I can repeat my questions.Report

              • Chip Daniels in reply to Jaybird says:

                The program estimates that it will help 39 million people every year, working out to $5.50 per person, per year, or about the cost of a cup of coffee.Report

              • Jaybird in reply to Chip Daniels says:

                Oh, I’d love to read their methodology for that! Could you provide a link?Report

              • Chip Daniels in reply to Jaybird says:

                California has a population of 39 million.
                Mentally ill homelessness affects every single resident.
                Therefore, removing homeless people from the street helps all 39 million.Report

              • Jaybird in reply to Chip Daniels says:

                I see.

                Could you not also argue that it helps everyone in the world?

                Divide $215 million by 7.8 billion!Report

              • Chip Daniels in reply to Jaybird says:

                Yes, you certainly could.

                Now you see the issue.
                Who is harmed by mental illness, homelessness, crime and broken windows?

                How much does that harm cost?

                How do we measure that cost, and therefore the return on a solution?Report

              • Jaybird in reply to Chip Daniels says:

                This is why I brought up employment numbers!

                If the $215 million program employs 800 people and helps 40 individuals with schizophrenia, that’s 840 people who have been helped!

                7.8 billion, if you count everyone on the planet! Or 39 million if you only want to count the population of California.Report

              • Chip Daniels in reply to Jaybird says:

                Look at the first example I provided, of Mayor Bass moving 82 people out of tents and into permanent housing.

                Who was helped? Hint- look at the last paragraph I quoted.Report

              • Jaybird in reply to Chip Daniels says:

                Yeah, 82 people. That’s why I want to know the cost of the program.

                If that program helped house 82 people at the cost of $215 million, I’d say something like “More than 82 people were helped! We helped 39 million people! Not just 82!” in the hopes to not get people to say “YOU SPENT $215 MILLION ON HOUSING A PALTRY 82 PEOPLE?!?!?!?”Report

              • Chip Daniels in reply to Jaybird says:

                So 82 people living in tents in Venice harms no one but those 82?

                I wonder why homelessness is considered such a big problem then.Report

              • Jaybird in reply to Chip Daniels says:

                I didnt’ say no one but those 82.

                I gave an estimate of 1.3 people per homeless and that means that we’re talking (rounding up) 107 people who were helped by that $215 million! And that’s not counting the hundreds of people who were employed to help move those 82 people!

                Let alone the 39 million in California!Report

              • Chip Daniels in reply to Jaybird says:

                So the 82 person homeless encampment only harmed 107 people?Report

              • Jaybird in reply to Chip Daniels says:

                What definition of “harm” are we using?

                Is “being annoyed as you drive past” harm?

                If “my mood is temporarily worsened” constitutes harm, maybe *THOUSANDS* of people benefitted from this. Tens of thousands!

                MAYBE EVEN 39 MILLION! (The population of California.)Report

              • Chip Daniels in reply to Jaybird says:

                Harm is the reciprocal of help.

                So if you want to ask how many people are helped, you need to figure out what you mean by those words.Report

              • Jaybird in reply to Chip Daniels says:

                Well, my earlier definition of “help” included “employed”.

                So if the $215 million employed 800 people and housed 82, the program helped 882 people.

                What definition of “harm” are we using? Does it include people thinking bad thoughts as they drive past a homeless camp?

                Because maybe we could reduce harm by getting rid of homeless camps entirely! Imagine how few people might think bad thoughts!Report

              • Chip Daniels in reply to Jaybird says:

                Why not also use the effect on property values?
                Or effect on tourism and visitors?
                Or the cost of security?
                Or the effect on business formation?Report

              • Jaybird in reply to Chip Daniels says:

                Yeah, you’d think that with all of the harm that homeless people do, more people would be willing to spend money to help themselves by getting rid of them.

                We’d just have to figure out what the amount they’d be willing to spend would be and compare it to the numbers that actually exist.

                Do we have those numbers, by the way?Report

              • Chip Daniels in reply to Jaybird says:

                You’re displaying our point here.

                You obviously don’t like this program and are desperately searching for some angle of attack, some entry point upon which you can condemn it.

                But of course, you also have no alternative proposal or even conceptual idea of how to address homelessness or mental illness.
                Like, none whatsoever.

                So as others here have noted, the conservative approach is just standing on the sidelines carping about some imaginary idea they woulda had, coulda had and it would be brilliant just you wait and see.

                Right now, people like Gavin Newsom and Karen Bass are actually doing things and changing the status quo and solving problems and helping the citizens of California.

                As opposed to whinging about drag queens and unf*ckable M&Ms.Report

              • Jaybird in reply to Chip Daniels says:

                No, it’s not that I don’t like the program.

                I think that if the program cost $215 million and helped people at a cost of, oh, $200,000 per person, I could see that as being a decent enough return. It helped a thousand people!

                If, however, it cost $215 million and helped 200ish people? It’s obviously a jobs program. It’s using the homeless as way to pay a bunch of middle class people middle class wages and to deflect criticism of this by appealing to how they’re “helping”.

                But of course, you also have no alternative proposal or even conceptual idea of how to address homelessness or mental illness.
                Like, none whatsoever.

                I do. Some of them might even cost less than $1 million per person helped.

                But we still don’t know how much the program cost per person, do we? You’d think that that’d be information worth knowing, rather than worth defending not knowing.Report

              • Philip H in reply to Jaybird says:

                We’d just have to figure out what the amount they’d be willing to spend would be and compare it to the numbers that actually exist.

                Do we have those numbers, by the way?

                But we still don’t know how much the program cost per person, do we? You’d think that that’d be information worth knowing, rather than worth defending not knowing.

                Not really. Despite a ton of semi-satirical pieces over the years, we don’t really know how much hammers or toilet seats or parachutes actually cost the DoD on a per capita basis. And no one asks because the outcome – America is defended – is the thing people care about.

                Same here. The outcome – visible “order” is expanded by housing the homeless – is the thing most people care about. So if this program spends X million dollars and achieves that end long term, its a success to the vast majority of voters. Even around here its still a success in those terms.

                So, what are your roposals?Report

              • Jaybird in reply to Philip H says:

                So, what are your roposals?

                At this point, I’m pretty sure that my proposals would be pretty good.

                “I would house the homeless!” and then I could give a bunch of jobs to my cronies and anybody who asked what the numbers of homeless I’d helped could be told to get bent.

                What are your proposals?, I could then ask.

                If I kept my numbers hidden, I wouldn’t have to change a darn thing.

                That’s my proposal. I assume you’re on board.Report

              • Chip Daniels in reply to Jaybird says:

                You aren’t able to quantify the harm of shoplifting or turnstile jumping or vandalism either.

                No one can, which is why criminals are charged in the name of “The People” because these things harm the entire body of society regardless of cost.

                So removing one single mugger or mentally ill homeless person from the streets benefits every member of society, even if in some small way.

                And no, neither you nor any other conservative have put forward any other alternative for homelessness and mental illness.Report

              • Jaybird in reply to Chip Daniels says:

                So removing one single mugger or mentally ill homeless person from the streets benefits every member of society, even if in some small way.

                Sure.

                But we’re also talking about stuff like “trade-offs”.

                Is it worth $20 million to catch turnstile jumpers?

                If you say “can’t we do it for $2 million?”, is it then fair for me to talk about you not caring about the damage done by turnstile jumping?

                Because that’s what we’re doing here.Report

              • DensityDuck in reply to Chip Daniels says:

                “So removing one single mugger or mentally ill homeless person from the streets benefits every member of society, even if in some small way.”

                this is dandy but remember it the next time you complain about the right-wing grifters sucking money into this-or-that scheme

                because someone out there is employed helping handle all of that money

                and if that person is kept off the streets by being employed, doesn’t that benefit every member of society, even if in some small way?Report

  6. Philip H says:

    Keeping up the theme of violent rhetoric and its outcomes – when else in history have we had major Congressional Committee sitting on revelations that a major industry sector ignored its own rules (and people) because it was afraid of offending another political party?

    Congressional investigators found evidence that tech platforms — especially Twitter — failed to heed their own employees’ warnings about violent rhetoric on their platforms and bent their rules to avoid penalizing conservatives, particularly then-president Trump, out of fear of reprisals. The draft report details how most platforms did not take “dramatic” steps to rein in extremist content until after the attack on the Capitol, despite clear red flags across the internet.

    “The sum of this is that alt-tech, fringe, and mainstream platforms were exploited in tandem by right-wing activists to bring American democracy to the brink of ruin,” the staffers wrote in their memo. “These platforms enabled the mobilization of extremists on smaller sites and whipped up conservative grievance on larger, more mainstream ones.”

    Makes one wonder where this is in the Twitter Files.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2023/01/17/jan6-committee-report-social-media/?utm_campaign=wp_post_most&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&wpisrc=nl_most&carta-url=https%3A%2F%2Fs2.washingtonpost.com%2Fcar-ln-tr%2F38df9c7%2F63c6d31def9bf67b23617e7e%2F59738e7cade4e21a848fe4b9%2F8%2F72%2F63c6d31def9bf67b23617e7e&wp_cu=5471d46db8b7f35fdd491ffd33791772%7C2AE372BEC443EE5DE050007F01004171Report

  7. Saul Degraw says:

    Professor Lopez sues Hameline for religious discrimination, defamation, breach of contract, and under the Minnesota Whistleblower Act: https://reason.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/LopezPraterComplaint.pdf

    Suing in state court was probably the smart idea though the U.S. Supreme Court could have ultimate jurisdiction depending on whether the parties want to argue the defamation cause of action to the bitter end. The breach of contract claim might work too if the complaint is accurate about being offered a course.

    Damages in this case will be interesting. Lopez was still a poorly paid adjunct and the chances of her being offered a tenure track position before this incident were slim and by slim, I mean practically non-existent. Considering that the majority of the world seems to be on Professor Lopez’s side in this story, you can’t quite say she is being defamed. If anything, her reputation is probably better than it was previously. The nearly universal reaction to the story seems to be Hamline messed up and the student is full of it and potentially just wanted to stir things up.

    That being said, the defamation cause of action has a 50/50 chance of succeeding in my opinion. In the professor’s favor, the nearly universal reaction to the Islamophobia charge was an eyeroll of epic proportions. On the other hand, the First Amendment does offer an opinion defense to defamation suits. People and organizations are entitled to their opinions even if no one else agrees.

    I do wonder if the university has an insurance policy which would cover the defense and/or liability, if any. Maybe a variant of errors and omissions insurance. However, almost all the allegations in the complaint are intentional acts which are usually not covered by insurance.Report

    • InMD in reply to Saul Degraw says:

      I doubt it gets decided on the merits. The question Hamline’s counsel will ask is how much money and time it wants to spend dealing with this. It’s not like they’re Oberlin or anything.Report

    • Jaybird in reply to Saul Degraw says:

      “Considering that the majority of the world seems to be on Professor Lopez’s side in this story, you can’t quite say she is being defamed.”

      Is that how defamation works?

      The New York Times has a fun article called “After Lecturer Sues, Hamline University Walks Back Its ‘Islamophobic’ Comments”.

      From the article:

      “Like all organizations, sometimes we misstep,” said a statement from Ellen Watters, the chair of the university’s board of trustees, and Fayneese S. Miller, the president. “In the interest of hearing from and supporting our Muslim students, language was used that does not reflect our sentiments on academic freedom. Based on all that we have learned, we have determined that our usage of the term ‘Islamophobic’ was therefore flawed.”

      The statement added, “It was never our intent to suggest that academic freedom is of lower concern or value than our students — care does not ‘supersede’ academic freedom, the two coexist.”

      The part that strikes me as interesting:

      The lawsuit, in Minnesota district court, states that Hamline’s actions have caused Dr. López Prater the loss of income from her adjunct position, emotional distress and damage to her professional reputation and job prospects.

      This doesn’t strike me as necessarily wrong on her part.

      Even if she got an article in Reason Magazine.Report

      • Saul Degraw in reply to Jaybird says:

        “Is that how defamation works?”

        The question is difficult. Theoretically, no it is not how defamation works. Hamline could take this all the way to the top if it wants to and possibly have a reasonable chance of winning. Not guaranteed but the opinion defense is a real thing. Though as the old saying goes, bad facts make bad law and this case is filled with bad facts. I guess the Supreme Court would need to decide if it hates labor rights or the woke more.

        In actuality, the court of public opinion may influence the decision of the Board of Trustees on whether it wants to settle and when. The “mistakes were made” release from yesterday is already an indication that someone (general counsel?, the board of trustees?) is telling Hameline’s senior admin that they messed up.

        As a more practical matter, juries can hear bad facts and award what I call “quasi punitive damages.” Most lawsuits for personal injury are done under negligence cause of actions. They are brought in negligence because liability insurance covers negligence but not intentional torts. There are no punitive damages for negligence. However, if the negligence is particularly egregious, my experience is that juries tend to be more generous with their awards and settlements also tend to be higher because defense counsel is warning the adjusters about a likely excess verdict which could lead to a bad faith lawsuit and bad faith lawsuits come with treble damages.Report

        • InMD in reply to Saul Degraw says:

          And insurance companies often step in well before that. The fact that this has gotten so high profile may bring other considerations into play but under most circumstances they’re not going to let you litigate a case to victory for $200k just to prove a point if you can settle it for $50k.Report

          • Saul Degraw in reply to InMD says:

            That being said, I am trying hard to think what kind of insurance would cover defense and indemnity for this fact pattern. Breach of contract is typically excluded from insurance but the religious discrimination count might be covered by a policy. I can’t think of any kind of policy that would cover defamation. Maybe a standard business policy?Report

            • InMD in reply to Saul Degraw says:

              Not sure if it’s different in an educational environment but businesses will carry employment practices liability policies that might respond. I would expect it offer coverage to a similar fact pattern in a corporate environment, absent an express exclusion.Report

  8. CJColucci says:

    Just to unpack a few things Saul said:

    The Opinion Defense is based on the idea that an opinion, as opposed to a statement of fact, can’t be true or false. But just calling something an opinion is not a get out of jail free card. Saying: “CJ is a thief” is, if false, defamatory. If you say: “In my opinion, CJ is a thief,” whether it is defamatory depends on whether, in context, the statement seems to rest on the speaker’s knowledge of facts not expressed in or around the “opinion,” or whether the speaker lays out the facts on which he bases his opinion. In effect, the speaker is saying “I think CJ is a thief because of facts A, B. and C.” For the opinion defense to work, facts A,B, and C have to be true. Something that doesn’t get addressed in the cases I’ve seen is whether the true facts have to be such that they rationally support the opinion. If A,B, and C are: CJ is an Italo-Finnish American, he wears glasses, and he loves really bad movies, those are all true facts, but they don’t rationally support the inference that I am a thief. My guess is that cases based on such crazy facts don’t get filed.
    As for the majority of the world agreeing with Professor Lopez, that is really an issue of damages rather than liability. If someone says: “CJ is a pederast” and nobody believes it, I have been defamed but have not been damaged. If I bother to litigate, I may get $1.00 in nominal damages, and I might get punitive damages — the prospect of which might be enough to get a lawyer to represent me on contingency.Report

    • Jaybird in reply to CJColucci says:

      When it comes to “the majority of the world agreeing with Professor Lopez”, how is that measured in the courtroom?

      “Look at these tweets supporting her! She went viral and, therefore, has clout!” seems to me to be in a different category than “look, Hillsdale College gave her tenure after she went viral!”Report

      • InMD in reply to Jaybird says:

        There are different kinds of damages that can be added/pursued but at the most basic level the plaintiff needs to prove he or she is out something. To use a terrible parallel a big part of the reason Johnny Depp won as much as he did in his suit against Amber Heard was that the defamation cost him a multimillion dollar role and potentially future roles in a hit Disney franchise. That’s big bucks. If Disney had kept him the damages would have been downwardly impacted, maybe considerably, because by definition he wasn’t out that money.Report

      • CJColucci in reply to Jaybird says:

        That’s the plaintiff’s lawyers’ problem. If they want to claim that almost nobody believed their client, and, therefore, the defendant didn’t suffer actual damages, they have to come up with something. They probably won’t be able to. Surveys, social media, and the like might suggest themselves, but all of them have their problems.Report

    • Saul Degraw in reply to CJColucci says:

      Which is why the case here is interesting. Are the (presumably) sincere complaints from an Islamic student and the local CAIR enough to give rise to the opinion defense. I think it could go either way.Report

      • Jaybird in reply to Saul Degraw says:

        Assuming you had your pick of the paychecks, would you rather be on the plaintiff’s team or the defense’s?Report

        • Saul Degraw in reply to Jaybird says:

          The defense always gets paid even if they lose at trial. In terms of a contingency fee, I am really not sure where the plaintiff’s damages are going to lie. I can see her plausibly getting anywhere from zero to several million dollars and I normally pride myself on being very good with determining where a case will end up.Report

  9. Saul Degraw says:

    New York State Senate Democrats reject Hector LaSalle for the chief position of the New York Court of Appeals. Governor Hochul threatens some kind of lawsuit to bring the vote to the floor: https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/18/nyregion/chief-judge-lasalle-hearing.html

    For those who don’t know, Governor Hochul was given an opportunity to nominate the chief judge of the New York Court of Appeals (the state’s highest court) after a surprise resignation. She decided to nominate a very conservative pick with long history of rulings against several groups that played heavy roles in getting her past the finish line in November. Mainly women on abortion and labor. A lot of Democrats, including moderate it ones, balked at the nomination, and Hochul apparently choose this hill to die on.

    As a former New Yorker turned San Franciscan, New York Democrats always had a more conservative feel in ways that are hard to articulate and I think that San Francisco’s voters are a lot more moderate that often portrayed in the media.Report

    • Philip H in reply to LeeEsq says:

      So the GOP is so desperate to obtain and cling to power that it willingly seats a gay drag queen who lies about his history and his finances in the House, while encouraging its aligned militias to physical assault Drag Queen Story Hour.

      You couldn’t sell that script to Hollywood if you tried.Report

  10. Michael Cain says:

    In a completely different direction, Stephen Colbert’s production company has joined the group working on an adaptation of Zelazny’s Chronicles of Amber for television.Report

  11. Saul Degraw says:

    Tell us it was Justice Alito without telling us it was Justice Alito: https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/19/us/politics/supreme-court-leak-roe.htmlReport

  12. Burt Likko says:

    There are people who think that runaway juries goaded by crazed liberal-woke trial attorneys and their greedy and cynical race-baiting clients are a problem sapping the vitality out of America. Then there are the people who understand that this result is closer to what one normally expects in a police abuse case.
    https://www.npr.org/2023/01/19/1149924822/army-lieutenant-virginia-police-traffic-stopReport

  13. LeeEsq says:

    Conservative media star outraged that he has to do some work and can’t be too racist for $50 million contract from the Daily Wire:

    https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-news/steven-crowder-feuds-daily-wire-50-million-offer-1234664277/Report

    • Burt Likko in reply to LeeEsq says:

      Sometimes I regret quitting Twitter; I’d have learned about this earlier and gotten to enjoy conservapundits calling one another nasty names.

      But, had I been on this, I’d have had to have dealt with too much of my feed gossiping about conservapundits calling one another nasty names.Report

  14. Michael Cain says:

    NBC reports on a Massachusetts high school whose entire lighting system is under centralized software control. The software failed. The failure mode leaves all lights on at full brightness 24/7/365. For the last 18 months. The company that wrote the code appears to have been resold multiple times and says they can’t patch the system (usually shorthand for “the source code has been lost somewhere along the line”).

    At some point in the past someone asked me, “But Mike, what will you do with a billion ops-per-second processor?” My answer was I will never write programs in a compiled language again. Given where we are today, I don’t understand why anyone specs systems — short of a small number running against hard real time — that doesn’t include, “System will be written in an open-source interpreted language and run from a complete local copy of the unobfusticated source code.”

    https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/lights-massachusetts-school-year-no-one-can-turn-rcna65611Report

  15. Chip Daniels says:

    Remember when conservatives said they only wanted to ban excessive DEI, or maybe just sexually explicit passages?

    North Dakota Republicans introduce a bill which would put librarians in jail for refusing to suppress books:

    House Majority Leader Mike Lefor, of Dickinson, introduced the bill and said public libraries currently contain books that have “disturbing and disgusting” content, including ones that describe virginity as a silly label and assert that gender is fluid.

    When they say “sexually explicit”, they mean any book which describes gender as fluid.

    Library Director Christine Kujawa at Bismarck Veterans Memorial Public Library said the library has a book with two little hamsters on the cover. At the end of the book, the hamsters get married, and they are both male.

    “It’s a cute book,” Kujawa said — but it would be considered pornography under the bill because the book includes gender identity.

    Facing criminal charges for keeping books on shelves is “something I never thought I would have to consider during my career as a librarian,” Kujawa added.

    https://www.nbcnews.com/nbc-out/out-politics-and-policy/north-dakota-weighs-ban-sexually-explicit-library-books-rcna66271?cid=sm_npd_nn_tw_maReport

  16. Saul Degraw says:

    Well it turns out Americans can tell the difference between accident and on purpose despite the media’s best efforts to blur the lines: https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2023/01/trump-biden-classified-documents-poll-differences-voters.html

    “A new Quinnipiac poll out Wednesday takes on a disconcerting idea circulating about the classified documents scandals: that the public cannot distinguish between former President Donald Trump’s year-and-a-half stonewall of government efforts to get back the ones he had shipped to Mar-a-Lago and President Joe Biden’s lawyers’ prompt return upon discovery of those they found in storage at his think tank and garage.

    The new poll says that, notwithstanding the White House’s botched lack of transparency around the documents’ discovery, a plurality of Americans—46 percent—think Biden should not be prosecuted, compared to 37 percent who think he should be. It’s the reverse for Trump: A plurality of 50 percent think he should be prosecuted, while 41 percent think he shouldn’t be.”Report

  17. Jaybird says:

    Google layoffs. Multiple layoffs all over in tech:

    One of the rumors I’ve seen flying around from one of my tweeps with a locked account who works at tech company is that it wasn’t the engineers getting fired but the more ancillary employees.Report

    • Saul Degraw in reply to Jaybird says:

      The gravy train of venture capital for tech is over. From what I read and heard, many of these companies over hired during the pandemic for projects that largely went nowhere and there were a lot of employees collecting paychecks without having much to do. This is a nice gig while it lasts but people figure it out eventually.Report

      • Same thing happened in the late 1990s and early aughts with the dot-com bust. Tens of thousands of people hired because maybe, with luck, they could put together a web page lost their jobs. Venture capital disappeared. Cisco lost 80% of its (bubble) stock price.Report

    • Jesse in reply to Jaybird says:

      This continues to happen, as inflation continues to drop, and unemployment continues to stay low, all while the jobs numbers stay good.

      A sector of the economy can have run too hot (ie. tech), while everybody else is fine.Report

    • Jaybird in reply to Jaybird says:

      And more:

      Report

  18. Saul Degraw says:

    The latest financial/tech fraud: https://www.businessinsider.com/charlie-javice-frank-fintech-startup-jp-morgan-fraud-2023-1

    Frank was a company that allegedly set out to revolutionize financial aid for colleges and help students save more money. JP Morgan paid 175 million for the company and its alleged 5 million customers. The company turned out only to have only 300,000 students and was a fraud in other ways. Morgan decided to sue Frank founder Charlie Javice.

    The thing that gets me is that Javice received numerous puff pieces of journalism where her obvious lies could have been caught with maybe 10-15 minutes left of google searching. She is the child of a hedge fund manager, she did not need scholarships or loans to pay for Penn. Wharton has had a no loan policy since 2008.Report

  19. Jaybird says:

    Two interesting things to read from the last couple of days.

    Freddie linked to his old “Education Doesn’t Work” post and it’s a banger.

    Reason magazine talks about a recent survey on Education and notes that attitudes on k-12 schooling has shifted in the last 3 years. Less college prep, more practical skills.Report

  20. Saul Degraw says:

    From Eater, an interesting look at the origin of “California Cuisine”, it appears to be more about saving on labor costs and needing big kitchens as much as anything else: https://www.eater.com/23560806/california-cuisine-history-great-chefs-pbs-show

    “The second season of Great Chefs, which aired in 1983, focused on San Francisco, an era and region that calls to mind rustic grilled pizzas, little mesclun salads dotted with goat cheese, and fruits on plates. Instead, the season is a paean to pate. Of the 13 episodes, seven feature chefs who are French or trained in traditional French kitchens. They don’t all cook true haute cuisine, but their food is much closer to the refined, rich, technique-heavy cooking of traditional French restaurant kitchens than the rustic peasant-style French cooking that inspired Waters and others. The chefs featured in these episodes make salmon mousseline and duck liver mousse; they craft marzipan roses and bread baskets made of literal bread; they wield multiple wine-reduced sauces and stuff chicken legs with veal. There is so much straining. None of the food could be described as simple….

    The one episode of the 1982 Great Chefs to focus squarely on the new “California cuisine,” as the narrator calls it, visits Jeremiah Tower, who was cooking then at the Santa Fe Bar and Grill. The opening shot presents Tower basting a whole pig turning over an open mesquite fire, framed by dried chile peppers hanging above. Over the course of the episode, he prepares a black bean cake topped with fresh salsa and cilantro (the narrator notes, “It’s a measure of the food sophistication of San Francisco that cilantro, Chinese parsley, usually sold in speciality stores elsewhere, is sold in grocery stores here”), a simple poached fish in a tomato-based sauce, and, yes, goat cheese topped with sundried tomato, wrapped in fig leaves and grilled. The whole pig he describes as a deceptively simple dish. You just need the spit, and the fire pit.”Report

    • Years ago I figured out that (a) I am a man of simple tastes and (b) I had a serious tendency to overeat on business travel. I learned to ask for “green salad, soup, glass of decent white wine”. Over the years, I concluded that California does that better than anywhere else in the US.

      One of the memorable ones was at the restaurant attached to a Best Western motel somewhere in Southern California. (I don’t remember any details about that trip other than dinner at the end of a day that had exhausted me beyond going out.) I was the only one in the dining room. The man running the room listened to my request — I think I added, “And can you make it interesting?” — and said, “Let me speak to the cook.” He came back and said, “The cook likes your attitude and can give you something excellent that’s not on the menu.” It was outstanding. Probably not as good as I remember it, because lucking into something always makes it better.Report

      • Saul Degraw in reply to Michael Cain says:

        California’s great benefit here is a temperate climate that allows it to produce excellent produce for almost the entire year if not the entire year. There are a few weeks between seasons when the pickings at the farmer’s market are meh but it usually a bounty of produce.Report

        • Denver is seeing the indoor growing techniques developed for the marijuana business applied to vertical farming of greens and some types of vegetables. It will be years, if ever, before the volume makes it available to regular people. But restaurants are all over it for the advantage of how this evening’s salads taste when the ingredients were picked this morning.

          The Netherlands is becoming a large year-round exporter of greens and vegetables using the same kind of technology.Report

          • Chip Daniels in reply to Michael Cain says:

            Each Sunday there is a farmers market right on the street below my building.
            One of the vendors is an indoor farm here in DTLA that grows microgreens, which just all sorts of sprouts. I’ve visited their facility and they told me the indoor grow is now highly efficient because of LED lights.
            They sell the sprouts live in little flats like you buy at the nursery and so like tonight I’ll just snip off a bunch of fresh greens to have for my salad.Report

          • Jaybird in reply to Michael Cain says:

            As it turns out, you can use the tech to make heirloom tomatoes.Report