2023 Best Picture Oscars Projections: The Mid-Year Point

Back in mid-April, just weeks after the latest Oscars ceremony got hijacked by the Will Smith slap debacle, I wrote about my initial projections for the Best Picture race for next year’s ceremony. With the new campaign season just starting to get off the ground and the movie season in general almost ready to begin the summer blockbuster months, I found a little over fifty movies across eleven tiers of competition that I thought had some kind of chance to get into the slate of ten nominees come nomination morning. Now as we come into July with event films ramping up and two major summer film festivals (Cannes and Tribeca) behind us, we are now mid-way through the year of contention and boy has the race already had some big changes since.

Of the fifty four movies I highlighted back in April, eight have been confirmed to have been delayed to or finalized for release in 2023. A further ten movies have been knocked off the board for various reasons, ranging from the fact that space has run out on the board to genre films not getting the momentum they needed to smaller films fading into the background as the slate of true contenders becomes clearer. Four new movies that weren’t even on my radar have entered the race with two of them right on the cusp, and one of the initial ten predicted nominees has already slipped out of the top two tiers. What’s left is a field that I’ve shrunk down from fifty four to forty across eight tiers. As the year goes on the number of potential contenders will keep shrinking and we’ll find out what movies can survive the “new look” smell that later released movies enjoy. And not to mention that other movies not on anyone’s radar can still break into the race come the fall when the most major of film festivals are held.

A reminder these are not personal ratings from me in regard to these films; this is my objective attempt to figure out the Best Picture race for the upcoming Academy Awards regardless of my personal feelings on any one movie in contention. I’ll point out how quickly I figured out my personal favorite film from last year, In The Heights, was slipping out of contention last year and yet at the same time I remained bullish on two movies I didn’t particular care for in Don’t Look Up or West Side Story being in the final slate of ten. The reason I like to focus on just the Best Picture race until the end of the year is because it’s typically the category that will have the most trickle down effect down the ballot. Of the nineteen non-Best Picture awards in which feature films and their crew are eligible, fourteen of them went to a nominee from a Best Picture nominated movie last year. So getting to know this race early on gives you major clues on what the enviroment looks like down the ballot as well. Finally, these are a peak at the kinds of movies you’ll likely see in “Best of the Year” lists come the end of the season, so it can also serve as a list of films to keep an eye out for regardless whether they make the Oscars or not.

 

TIER 1: THE FRONT-RUNNERS TO GO ALL THE WAY

– Best Picture Oscars Contenders: 01. Babylon; 02. The Fabelmans; 03. Killers Of The Flower Moon; 04. Empire Of Light; 05. Amsterdam

– Details: Even though the chess pieces in the Best Picture race have moved around plenty the last few months, the top tier of the five movies I currently think aren’t just in the thick of it to get nominated but to actually go all the way and stand on that stage as the winner have not changed one bit.

We finally got an official name for David O. Russell’s next film which was originally going to be a contender last year before getting pushed to this year – Amsterdam. While Russel’s behavior outside the film lot could become a hinderance to the movie’s campaign success, the incredible cast list and his past films hitting the right marks with Academy voters keeps it in the top tier. Meanwhile, Sam Mendes’ upcoming Empire Of Light remains as the romantic genre movie that I believe could get enough passion to go deep in the race. Giants Martin Scorsese and Steven Spielberg have their upcoming respective movies still in the top tier in Killers Of The Flower Moon and The Fabelmans; though rumors persist that the former could be delayed until next year because of the growing size of the project. But still sitting atop at number one is the movie about the movies, set in the twenties, and featuring potential acting award nominees in director Damien Chazelle’s Babylon.

What you have here are five heavyweights that will take work for movies lower on the rung to knock down, but last year my initial top five only had two movies end up getting nominated, not including my initial pick for number one! So just because these behemoths look unstoppable to make the race all about them for now, it doesn’t mean that won’t change when inevitably one or two or more of them end up underwhelming late in the year. And that’s without taking into account recent trends in the preferential ballot era that have lead to critical darlings slipping up at the finish line because a crowd pleaser from a lesser known director captures hearts and surges late. Like with any politician or political party who has a lead in the polls early on, there’s no guarantee that lead will hold the closer we get to the actual voting period.

 

TIER 2: THE OTHER HEAVYWEIGHTS BREAKING INTO THE 10

– Best Picture Oscars Contenders: 06. The Killer; 07. Rustin; 08. She Said; 09. Everything Everywhere All At Once; 10. Bardo

– Details: Not much has changed since April for me in the second tier of competitors which includes movies I have predicted to be nominated at the moment, but I don’t yet see as contenders to actually win on Oscar night. David Fincher’s The Killer which I’m gambling on getting announced for this year remains my no guts, no glory predicted sixth nominee. Moving up a spot each are Netflix’s historical bio-drama Rustin and the Weinstein story-covering She Said which could end up the message movie of awards season after the recent striking down of Roe though I remain cautious some voters might not be comfortable getting reminded about past sins of their industry (but more on that in the fourth tier discussion). And I still have in the tenth spot as my choice for the international player of the year, the Mexican comedy Bardo from twice victorious Director Alejandro González Iñárritu.

The movie that has moved from two spots and has shifted from being on the heels of making it to getting into the slate of ten for now is the massive indie hit Everything Everywhere All At Once which enjoyed insane legs at the box office for a movie of its size and has perhaps the best word of mouth an A24 film has ever enjoyed. It has been able to stand out as more and more Academy voters have been on social media championing the movie and it could be the vehicle for veteran actors like Michelle Yeoh, Ke Huy Quan, and Jamie Lee Curtis to get first-time Oscar nominations. The movie also just won the mid-season award for Best Picture among the Hollywood Critics Association, a critics group I’ve argued are becoming among the most influential in getting movies in front of voters’ faces and may have been a major part in CODA‘s last second surge to victory last season. The question is can this hold for another six months when inevitably the race has certain chess pieces move in and out, and the inevitably late breakouts hog up all the air. It’s going to be tough but SO FAR everything this movie needed to stay in the race has happened and I believe it would get the nomination if the vote was today.

 

TIER 3: SERIOUS CONTENDERS ON THE HEELS OF THE 10

– Best Picture Oscars Contenders: 11. Avatar: The Way Of Water; 12. Top Gun: Maverick; 13. RRR; 14. Thirteen Lives; 15. The Son

– Details: The third tier is where things really start to get shaken up in the race compared to last April. This is the tier for contenders I wouldn’t currently predict to get nominated, but are on the heels of getting in and could sneak in as the surprise nominee in the way Nightmare Alley did last year when it was arguably a third tier film come nomination morning.

Spots eleven through thirteen are arguably the three top films battling to be that big blockbuster populist film that gets nominated every year and Oscars super fans use as the token choice to argue the Academy isn’t disconnected from the regular movie go-er (spoiler alert, they are). Avatar: The Way Of Water moves up a spot and it’s really going to take that movie living up to the hype and recapturing the box office magic of the first film to break through into the ten; it’ll have a major advantage in that it will release late enough in the season to feel like the “new look” contender compared to other populist films fighting to get in. Amazon’s Thirteen Lives falls seven whole spots and goes from a heavyweight to an “on the bubble” contender after the stunning news that studio execs were releasing the film much earlier in the fall than expected even with all the great word of mouth it got in test screenings. And The Son, the follow-up to the late surging movie of the 2020 awards season, The Father, remains in the fifteenth spot as I cautiously keep my eye on whether the less cinephile-centric season this time around compared to the one The Father was competing in keeps this one from having as much success.

The two new movies that have broken through from not being on the board last April to showing up as the twelfth and thirteenth spot respectively are massive box office juggernaut Top Gun: Maverick and the massive global Hindi hit that is RRR. The former has made a cultural footprint this year with its critical and financial success which is what a genre movie of its type needed to get in the face of Academy voters. Unlike other populist properties like the MCU that key voters have personal grudges with, this is a legacy sequel that could be respected in the same vein as Mad Max: Fury Road was from a few years ago when that got nominated for Best Picture. Then there’s the latter in RRR which is an epic three hour fictional historical re-telling about the bond between two revolutionaries that features all the bombastic and fun elements Indian films can offer. It surprisingly finished second for Best Picture at the Hollywood Critics Association mid-season awards which goes to show you the momentum this movie is currently enjoying has a high ceiling if India picks it as their International submission. (Plus it being available on Netflix doesn’t hurt its ability to get into voters’ homes.)

 

TIER 4: LONG SHOTS ON VERGE OF BEING TAKEN SERIOUS

– Best Picture Oscars Contenders: 16. Next Goal Wins; 17. Women Talking; 18. The Woman King; 19. Don’t Worry Darling; 20. Cha Cha Real Smooth

– Details: The fourth tier features contenders that aren’t quite “on the bubble” right now, but are on the verge of getting into that position. Like in April, Taika Waititi’s upcoming Next Goal Wins remains where it was as well as do three movies that could end up surpassing She Said as the feminist pick of the year – Women Talking, The Woman King, and Don’t Worry Darling. Those latter three could be the message movie some voters rally around after the Dobbs Supreme Court decision and if She Said falters any of these three could take that spot.

And if you’re skeptical that outside political news events wouldn’t affect something like the Oscars’ Best Picture race, I’d argue that Trump’s election helped Moonlight to surpass La La Land and that his defeat may have helped Nomadland fight off The Trial of the Chicago 7. Some have even wondered if the war in the Ukraine breaking out between nomination morning and Oscar night earlier this year may have lead voters to crave something that would put a smile on their face and thus the last second meltdown we saw for The Power Of The Dog. There’s zero evidence these narrative, political picks by the Academy shifts votes or public opinion but it’s something that happens and you have to keep an eye on where it could affect the race.

The new movie to enter this tier by moving one spot over from the below tier is Sundance hit Cha Cha Real Smooth which is attempting to have a CODA type surge into the race. Critics have heaped praise onto the movie and it has emerged as among their most beloved films mid-way through the year. My only reservations are that the movie came out so early and its audience scores are awful whereas CODA‘s audience scores were great. But at the same time Sundance has had a good streak of having one hit from the festival make it to a Best Picture nomination, and Apple proved last year they can take an early released movie and make it feel fresh in voters’ minds late in the season. In hindsight this is where this one either peaks in the race or starts to make a move.

 

TIER 5: LONG SHOTS WITHIN STRIKING DISTANCE

– Best Picture Oscars Contenders: 21. Marcel The Shell With The Shoes On; 22. Elvis; 23. Triangle Of Sadness; 24. Decision To Leave; 25. Holy Spider

– Details: There are long shots that are on the verge of becoming serious contenders, and then there are long shots that are farther behind but within striking distance of joining the top tiers in the race. That’s where these contenders in the fifth tier are placed on the board and all five of the films here have surged since April.

Marcel The Shell With Shoes On has the biggest climb of all, skipping ahead to twenty spots from being deemed an atypical contender with slight buzz to one that you might want to keep an eye on. The first ever family film from A24 has become one of the highest rated films in Letterboxd history and has received nominations for mid-season awards from the Hollywood Critics Association. Right behind it and climbing up an impressive fourteen spots is Elvis. The Baz Luhrmann bio-pic that features Tom Hanks as the king’s manager has received great audience scores, done better than expected at the box office, and can boast a record breaking standing ovation at Cannes after its showing. Not to mention that its lead, Austin Butler, has broken out as the super early frontrunner for Best Actor. And then there’s Park Chan-Wook’s next film Decision To Leave which garnered plaudits at the Cannes Film Festival and has jumped ten spots from a movie that needed a path to one that in my opinion is within striking distance.

The two other films are new contenders that I wasn’t even aware existed back in April in the form of Cannes winner Triangle Of Sadness and a breakout critical hit from the festival in the Persian language Holy Spider. “Triangle” is a satirical take on the differences in class and wealth aboard a cruise that ultimately ends up stranded on an island. It could be one of those crowd pleasers with something to say that does well with voters. “Spider” is a serial killer drama that has themes on violence against women that could help make it a narrative contender in the race. Either could pull off what Drive My Car did last year and use a great Cannes reception followed by a successful fall release followed by a surge during awards season at the right time.

 

TIER 6: VIABLE CONTENDERS THAT HAVE A VERY SLIM PATH

– Best Picture Oscars Contenders: 26. The Greatest Beer Run Ever; 27. The Whale; 28. White Noise; 29. Three Thousand Years Of Longing; 30. Nope

– Details: Now we’re getting to the part of the board where contenders have plausible paths into the ten but they’re slim. Unlike the previous tier, all five films featured here are trending down from being within striking distance to slim chances.

The Greatest Beer Run Ever slipped three spots as other contenders have surged ahead, and this one will need to have a very big splash when it shows up in the fall or it’ll fade into the background as an “also ran”.  A24 confirmed plans to release The Whale this year, but it’s starting to sound more and more like an acting vehicle than a top prize contender and has slipped seven spots. Not to mention word is this could be one of those limited releases in December followed by a wide release in January which could make it one of those “too late” movies that slips past some voters’ eyes.

Then there’s Noah Baumbach’s next production in White Noise but as details emerge of the Netflix backed film, its starting to sound like something that might not be in the wheelhouse of the Academy. Thus it’s slipped all the way down fourteen spots from being “on the bubble” to a long shot. Out of all the five this is one that could just be bottoming out before peaking again but it badly needs some renewed buzz and momentum.

Then there’s George Miller’s next movie in Three Thousand Years Of Longing which initially enjoyed some major buzz coming out of Cannes but since has started to seem like a film with “just okay” critical reviews. That doesn’t mean its done for, as voters have been known to nominate and outright give Oscars to movies critics weren’t that wild about. But it’s certainly taken a hit over the last month and like White Noise will need another push to get it to stop its current freefall. And finally there’s Jordan Peele’s next horror flick, Nope, which slips five spots down as the buzz around the movie has gone from potential genre awards contender to perhaps just more of a commercial play.

 

TIER 7: VIABLE CONTENDERS THAT NEED A PATH

– Best Picture Oscars Contenders: 31. Living; 32. Tar; 33. I Wanna Dance With Somebody; 34. Till; 35. All Quiet On The Western Front

– Details: The next tier of contenders are still viable and potential nominees for the top prize that are looking for that path to surge forward in the way some movies in higher tiers have since April.

Living, the British remake of Ikiru has slipped five spots down as Sundance fades from memory and the talk about this one has faded in favor of other releases. Tar has also slipped down five spots in bad need of some momentum. Whitney Houston bio-pic I Wanna’ Dance With Somebody has survived the cuts of other bio-pics from the race the last few months, climbing up five spots, but it’s going to need other higher tier contenders to underwhelm. Then there’s Till, the film about Emmitt Till’s mother that has also climbed up five spots but I’m going to need to see more before I think it can be a stronger contender. Finally there’s the All Quiet On The Western Front remake that remains in its spot from April as everyone awaits more news from this one.

 

TIER 8: UNLIKELY CONTENDERS BARELY HANGING ON

– Best Picture Oscars Contenders: 36. The Batman; 37. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery; 38. Strange World; 39. Turning Red; 40. The Northman

– Details: Now we’re at the final tier of this part of the year, the five films that are looking like unlikely nominees but are still barely hanging on with very slim chances.

Robert Egger’s latest in The Northman fell down eight spots and is on the verge of getting eliminated from the race all together after poor box office became the dominating story on this one, even with its great critical reception.  There’s Pixar’s Turning Red which has climbed four spots after it ended up more beloved than the struggling Lightyear and arguably stands as the super early frontrunner for Best Animated Feature. Then we have the next Disney Animation Studios film in Strange World which will attempt to take advantage of a sub-par year for animated contenders so far and has climbed up four spots. The Knives Out sequel Glass Onion will be getting a Fall Festival premiere and the movie has climbed up ten spots.

Then there’s the only superhero movie with a real shot to make it in The Batman which has climbed up ten spots but remains a massive longshot. Its early release, genre bias, and the emerging of Top Gun: Maverick as the major blockbuster that could be the populist nominee hinders it. However, its critical acclaim, its standing out as different from typical superhero fare, Warner Brother’s scant awards slate for the year, and its likely technical nominations are barely keeping it on the board though this may be in hindsight where it peaks.

 

And that’s where the race for Best Picture stands in my mind, mid-way through the year. I’ll be looking at how the race has shifted and what movies have come in and fallen off of the board since come the fall when the major film festivals have their say. Below I’ve provided the movies that were on the board in April but have since fallen off whether it be because of a 2023 release or getting eliminated from contention barring some sudden renewed surge later in the year. Until then good luck to all the productions still in it as we enter the thick of the blockbuster movie season.

 

PREVIOUS CONTENDERS DELAYED TO/CONFIRMED FOR 2023

– Spider-Man: Across The Spider-Verse

– Asteroid City

– Disappointment Blvd

– Emancipation

– Maestro

– Napolean

– Poor Things

– The Color Purple

 

PREVIOUS CONTENDERS KNOCKED OFF THE BOARD

– After Yang

– Apollo 10 1/2: A Space Age Childhood

– Armageddon Time

– Blonde

– Golda

– Lightyear

– Pinocchio

– Spaceman

– The Banshees Of Inisherin

– Black Panther: Wakanda Forever