How far we’ve come in this Oscars race, it feels almost like yesterday when I wrote about the Best Picture race way back in May of last year and ended up nailing 6 of the would be 10 Best Picture nominees in my original 10. 7 if you include the twenty five I had in initial contention. Not bad given I was literally just going off my gut feelings and “buzz” from the industry. Since then the race has ebb and flow, not just for Best Picture but for all the categories. From the industry easing back into in-person film festivals and award shows to big studio films re-entering the race after a previous season dominated by small independent flicks. After being shut in during the pandemic and going through the stressing news cycles, the Academy showed more love to more crowd pleasers this year and what started out as a race between two well respected veteran Directors trying to have a big moment has become a battle to see which streamer will make history or if a theatrical film will jump off the top rope and spoil the party. Stats are on the line as long standing precursors could prove to have their limits this year, and almost all the acting races feel more locked in and safe to predict than other major races – maybe TOO safe?
In terms of the Oscars as a whole, I still think they continue to have too insular an audience and crop of contenders. While personally half of the Best Picture nominees made my personal Top 15 of 2021, only one of these films was a box office hit (Dune) and even that film didn’t break the Top 10 grosses of the year. They continue to give recognition to mostly movies many casuals haven’t seen for themselves and continue to ignore or give little attention to what the average guy or gal on the street is watching. Thus you get the lower and lower ratings we’ve been seeing for the ceremony; though to be fair the change in how we consume television is also a major factor. But while I can sympathize that ABC is desperate for better ratings for an event that used to compete with the Super Bowl, their attempts include a Twitter related “Fan Favorite” vote that I initially supported but has become a mess with troll campaigns that include putting a small Johnny Depp movie no one saw as a contender thanks to online culture fights over his messy separation. They’ve also decided not to present all 23 categories live on the show, have decided on three hosts that with all due respect to their comedic talents will likely not draw in a new and younger crowd, and have recently announced some sort of lineup of musical performances that have nothing to do with the ceremony itself sparse throughout the show. I think we’ll see better ratings after last year’s horrific numbers, but I suspect the jump may not be as dramatic as ABC is praying for either.
Back last month I made my final prediction for the nominees and I’m happy to say I got 70% of them correct (That number is higher without those pesky shorts categories). Over at Gold Derby I started off horrifically by only correctly predicting 33% of the SAG winners right but bounced back by nailing 63% of the BAFTA winners, 76% of the Critic’s Choice winners, and may or may not have peaked by predicting 80% of the PGA winners right. As the season has gone on and I’ve watched how things have played out, as I’ve read more about what those talking to voters have been hearing back, and as I look at the precursors and stats before us, I feel at ease and at peace with my predictions for what will happen this Sunday night. Some races seem like locks, but some are competitive as it gets. I’ve provided my predictions for all twenty three categories below with my personal vote, my predicted winner, the nominee I have as a potential upset, and a dark horse or two just in case we get a REAL surprise. I’ve also explained my thinking with a little analysis for each provided.
So without further adieu, here’s who or what I think will be taking home an Oscar and who or what could upset those predictions…
BEST PICTURE
– What I’d Personally Vote For: Belfast
– What I Predict Will Win: The Power Of The Dog
– Upset Alert: CODA
– Dark Horses: Belfast; King Richard; Licorice Pizza
– “Just Happy To Be Nominated”: Don’t Look Up; Drive My Car; Dune; Nightmare Alley; West Side Story
– Analysis: At the start of this awards season the battle for who’d win Best Picture seemed to be shaping up to be between the audience film festival awards’ dominating Belfast and the critics’ darling The Power Of The Dog. Both directed by respected veteran Directors with mixed filmography, one representing the would be first ever streamer Best Picture winner and the other representing an old school theatrical release that is clearly Oscar bait. Others attempted to get in-between as they had their peak moments from King Richard, West Side Story, and even for a little time there Licorice Pizza. But during the SAGs CODA finally broke through and has surged late into arguably becoming the new runner-up as it also won the Hollywood Critics Association Awards and the PGAs. The Power Of The Dog won at BAFTA, Critic’s Choice, and the Golden Globes in comparison.
On paper I want to objectively get on the bandwagon of predicting the CODA upset given the audience scores tell us its hitting with non-critics better than the front-runner which has had trouble clicking with regular audiences. In other words, industry voters may not be in line with critics just like in past Best Picture battles when movies like Shakespeare In Love, King’s Speech, or Green Book pulled off wins over films that seemed like they were destined to dominate the night. But “Power” has a whopping twelve nominations including all their main actors nominated and its Director the front-runner in that race as well. Plus its hit all the precursors it needed to hit to be historically in place to win the big award, whereas CODA has missed much more and only has three nominations not including key categories like Director and Editing. A CODA win would likely be the biggest statistical Best Picture upset since 1932’s Grand Hotel and yet in hindsight we have plenty of evidence that it might be coming. Ultimately I’m going with the stats over the momentum in what could be a move that bites me, and I don’t completely think Belfast or King Richard or even Licorice Pizza can’t spoil the party and pull off a stunner. But regardless we’ll likely have the first ever streaming Best Picture winner, but will it be Netflix who have been working years to have this moment or Apple TV Plus who have been around for just two years?
BEST DIRECTOR
– Who I’d Personally Vote For: Kenneth Branagh (Belfast)
– Who I Predict Will Win: Jane Campion (The Power Of The Dog)
– Upset Alert: Kenneth Branagh (Belfast)
– Dark Horses: Paul Thomas Anderson (Licorice Pizza); Stephen Spielberg (West Side Story)
– “Just Happy To Be Nominated”: Ryusuke Hamaguchi (Drive My Car)
– Analysis: This might be one of the locks of the night as Campion has won literally everywhere, even where the actual film has faltered in the Best Picture category. I think she pulls it off and gets her directing Oscar here, but after a controversial gaffe during her Critics Choice acceptance speech where it sounded like she was trying to downplay the Williams sisters’ accomplishments, I guess you could be on the lookout for a late surging upset if there is enough of a backlash, but I honestly highly doubt she won’t win even with that late season slip up.
BEST ACTOR
– Who I’d Personally Vote For: Denzel Washington (The Tragedy Of Macbeth)
– Who I Predict Will Win: Will Smith (King Richard)
– Upset Alert: Benedict Cumberbatch (The Power Of The Dog)
– Dark Horse: Andrew Garfield (Tick, Tick…Boom!)
– “Just Happy To Be Nominated”: Javier Bardem (Being The Ricardos); Denzel Washington (The Tragedy Of Macbeth)
– Analysis: Will Smith got no love from the critics’ circles but the industry awards have been a different monster as he’s begun sweeping all the big awards and looks poised to finally have his moment and get an Oscar. I think he will but IF the Academy shows more love than expected for the Best Picture frontrunner on the night of, look for Cumberbatch to pull off a late upset if not Garfield surging late and pulling off a stunner.
BEST ACTRESS
– Who I’d Personally Vote For: Jessica Chastain (The Eyes Of Tammy Faye)
– Who I Predict Will Win: Jessica Chastain (The Eyes Of Tammy Faye)
– Upset Alert: Nicole Kidman (Being The Ricardos)
– Dark Horses: Olivia Coleman (The Lost Daughter); Penelope Cruz (Parallel Mothers); Kirsten Stewart (Spencer)
– “Just Happy To Be Nominated”: N/A
– Analysis: Your eyes are not deceiving you, I legitimately think all five of these nominees have a shot here. Best Actress has turned out to be the wildest and most unpredictable race there is with shocking snubs at each turn and different winners everywhere save for Chastain pulling off two major wins (SAG, CCA). On top of that, not one nominee is from a film that was nominated for Best Picture. My belief is Chastain will finally win her Oscar with her transformative role as Tammy Faye, but I would keep an eye on Kidman and after that maybe some other chaotic stunner from any of the other contenders.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
– Who I’d Personally Vote For: Cirian Hinds (Belfast)
– Who I Predict Will Win: Troy Kotsur (CODA)
– Upset Alert: Kodi Smit-McPhee (The Power Of The Dog)
– Dark Horse: Cirian Hinds (Belfast)
– “Just Happy To Be Nominated”: Jesse Plemons (The Power Of The Dog); J.K Simmons (Being The Ricardos)
– Analysis: Troy Kotsur has been winning over hearts and the CODA surge has helped him become a sweeper during the industry phase of the awards season. Even if CODA loses Best Picture I see him winning here. However one major sign that the movie won’t pull off the Best Picture upset is if it does manage to lose here and the front-runner film gets the win instead ala Smit-McPhee or if Hinds pulls off a big upset in a scenario where perhaps the dark horse and one time frontrunner in Belfast gets more love than expected.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
– Who I’d Personally Vote For: Kirsten Dunst (The Power Of The Dog)
– Who I Predict Will Win: Ariana DeBose (West Side Story)
– Upset Alert: Kirsten Dunst (The Power Of The Dog)
– Dark Horse: Aunjuane Ellis (King Richard)
– “Just Happy To Be Nominated”: Jessie Buckley (The Lost Daughter); Judi Dench (Belfast)
– Analysis: Of all the acting awards this feels like the biggest lock of all as DeBose has won everywhere and seems to be West Side Story‘s best shot to leave with anything on the night of. Its very hard to make a case against her, but if there was a stunner here I’d default once again to the front-runner for Best Picture’s acting nominee or Ellis getting love for her role in King Richard. With the shocking (and I think criminal) snub of Caitriona Balfe as the Belfast representative in favor of Dench, its come down to those three.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
– What I’d Personally Vote For: Belfast
– What I Predict Will Win: Belfast
– Upset Alert: Licorice Pizza
– Dark Horses: Don’t Look Up; King Richard
– “Just Happy To Be Nominated”: The Worst Person In The World
– Analysis: On paper Licorice Pizza could arguably be the film with momentum here as it pulled off a major win for screenplay at BAFTA whereas Belfast only won in the non-industry awards that are the Golden Globes and the Critics Choice Awards. It feels like what was supposed to be Kenneth Branagh’s moment to finally win an Oscar had become Paul Thomas Anderson’s. However in a stunner WGA (The writers’ guild) didn’t go with Licorice Pizza even with Belfast not in contention there, perhaps a sign that Belfast still had the edge even though its lost a lot of momentum in the last few weeks. There’s also the matter of the controversies surrounding “Pizza” in regard to a running gag about a racist character and the age gap between the two protagonists. This is a super tight race but given I still truly believe Branagh’s film is closer to the Best Picture win than Anderson’s would be I give the edge to the former; but whichever of the two win I’ll be pretty happy as a fan of both men.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
– What I’d Personally Vote For: Dune
– What I Predict Will Win: The Power Of The Dog
– Upset Alert: CODA
– Dark Horses: Drive My Car; The Lost Daughter
– “Just Happy To Be Nominated”: Dune
– Analysis: CODA‘s push to have a shot at the big Best Picture win has been helped by its sudden late surge in winning screenplay awards alongside its Supporting Actor sweep and their upset wins at SAG and PGA. I can see a world where The Power Of The Dog loses here but still manages a win for Picture, but I can’t see a world where CODA loses here but manages a win for Picture. So if we have any shot at seeing the upset by Apple, this is a must win in my opinion for them. I’m probably going to regret this because there’s plenty evidence CODA has surged ahead of “Power” here but I’m going to stick with the movie I’m leaning towards thinking wins the big prize to pull it off here as well. But understand this may just be the hardest category to pick of all twenty three.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
– What I’d Personally Vote For: Luca
– What I Predict Will Win: Encanto
– Upset Alert: The Mitchells VS The Machines
– Dark Horse: Luca
– “Just Happy To Be Nominated”: Flee; Raya And The Last Dragon
– Analysis: Encanto has become a phenomena in the billboard charts and the film has been racking up some major industry precursors. Its a Disney film which tends to win here and I actually think it may have been a movie that was in the next ten after the top ten who got into the Best Picture race. Its also one of only two films nominated here (The other being Flee) that also got nominated elsewhere. However Netflix and Sony’s The Mitchells VS The Machines has won even more awards among critics and pulled off big upset wins at the important for this category Annie Awards. While I think it is Encanto‘s to lose, the runner-up is nipping at its heels and could be the big surprise of the night.
BEST ANIMATED SHORT
– What I’d Personally Vote For: Robin Robin
– What I Predict Will Win: Robin Robin
– Upset Alert: Bestia
– Dark Horse: The Windshield Wiper
– “Just Happy To Be Nominated”: Affairs Of The Art; Boxballet
– Analysis: The shorts are always hard to figure out and tend to be the Oscar pool breaking categories. Based on where the betting markets seem to be pushing their confidence in, I’m playing it safe here with the favorite Robin Robin but Bestia and The Windshield Wiper could win here instead.
BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
– What I’d Personally Vote For: Drive My Car
– What I Predict Will Win: Drive My Car
– Upset Alert: The Worst Person In The World
– Dark Horse: Flee
– “Just Happy To Be Nominated”: Lulana: A Yak In The Classroom; The Hand Of God
– Analysis: Its pretty simple, Drive My Car found its way to the main Best Picture race and has a lot of love and support behind it. Even voters who criminally decided to not even bother watching any of these nominees will likely just vote for the one that got into the big race as a default. That said if it somehow manages to choke here, I’d say The Worst person In The World is its toughest competition as its the only other International film that got a screenplay nomination and I believe was within the top twenty of the Best Picture ballot.
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT
– What I’d Personally Vote For: The Dress
– What I Predict Will Win: The Long Goodbye
– Upset Alert: The Dress
– Dark Horse: Ala Kachuu: Take And Run
– “Just Happy To Be Nominated”: On My Mind; Please Hold
– Analysis:The shorts are always hard to figure out and tend to be the Oscar pool breaking categories. Based on where the betting markets seem to be pushing their confidence in, I’m playing it safe here with the favorite The Long Goodbye but The Dress and Ala Kachuu: Take And Run could win here instead.
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
– What I’d Personally Vote For: Summer Of Soul
– What I Predict Will Win: Summer Of Soul
– Upset Alert: Flee
– Dark Horse: Attica
– “Just Happy To Be Nominated”: Ascension; Writing With Fire
– Analysis: Summer Of Soul has been dominating the awards season here and I have no reason to think it somehow doesn’t add an Oscar to its haul. That said if there is going to be a major upset, perhaps Flee will win given its also nominated in two other categories.
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
– What I’d Personally Vote For: The Queen Of Basketball
– What I Predict Will Win: The Queen Of Basketball
– Upset Alert: Audible
– Dark Horse: Three Songs For Benazir
– “Just Happy To Be Nominated”: Lead Me Home; When We Were Bullies
– Analysis: The shorts are always hard to figure out and tend to be the Oscar pool breaking categories. Based on where the betting markets seem to be pushing their confidence in, I’m playing it safe here with the favorite The Queen Of Basketball; but Audible and Three Songs For Benazir could win here instead.
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
– What I’d Personally Vote For: “Be Alive” (King Richard)
– What I Predict Will Win: “No Time To Die” (No Time To Die)
– Upset Alert: “Dos Oruguitas” (Encanto)
– Dark Horse: “Be Alive” (King Richard)
– “Just Happy To Be Nominated”: “Down To Joy” (Belfast); “Somehow You Do” (Four Good Days)
– Analysis: After what seemed to be a battle between Beyoncé or Billie Eilish for which international star singer would get to take home an Oscar, “Be Alive” from King Richard has seemingly been fading to third place with Encanto‘s beloved soundtrack perhaps putting it within range to get the win here. That said the undoubtable favorite here is “No Time To Die” from No Time To Die as the Academy’s love for Bond songs in the last decade has become almost what the nineties Disney songs were then. Eilish looks to be adding an Oscar to her trophy case like Lady Gaga did a few years back.
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
– What I’d Personally Vote For: The Power Of The Dog
– What I Predict Will Win: Dune
– Upset Alert: The Power Of The Dog
– Dark Horse: Encanto
– “Just Happy To Be Nominated”: Don’t Look Up; Parallel Mothers
– Analysis: Dune is the easy favorite here as it is in almost every single below the line tech award. However this is one of three categories its favored in that I can see it having a tough fight from the runner-up. In this case its The Power Of The Dog‘s score and if “Power” is going to win the big prize, an upset here could be a sign early in the night that its going to happen for Netflix.
BEST SOUND
– What I’d Personally Vote For: Dune
– What I Predict Will Win: Dune
– Upset Alert: West Side Story
– Dark Horses: Belfast; The Power Of The Dog
– “Just Happy To Be Nominated”: No Time To Die
– Analysis: Dune is the easy favorite here as it is in almost every single below the line tech award.
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
– What I’d Personally Vote For: The Tragedy Of Macbeth
– What I Predict Will Win: Dune
– Upset Alert: The Power Of The Dog
– Dark Horse: The Tragedy Of Macbeth
– “Just Happy To Be Nominated”: Nightmare Alley; West Side Story
– Analysis: Dune is the easy favorite here as it is in almost every single below the line tech award. However this is one of three categories its favored in that I can see it having a tough fight from the runner-up. In this case its The Power Of The Dog and if “Power” is going to win the big prize, an upset here could be a sign early in the night that its going to happen for Netflix. However keep an eye out for a potential The Tragedy Of Macbeth stunner as the Academy has been known to be suckers for black and white films here.
BEST FILM EDITING
– What I’d Personally Vote For: Dune
– What I Predict Will Win: Dune
– Upset Alert: King Richard
– Dark Horse: The Power Of The Dog
– “Just Happy To Be Nominated”: Don’t Look Up; Tick, Tick…Boom!
– Analysis: Dune is the easy favorite here as it is in almost every single below the line tech award. However this is one of three categories its favored in that I can see it having a tough fight from the runner-up. In this case its King Richard which has won here elsewhere, but IF we see a major over-performance for The Power Of The Dog the night of, I can see it winning here as well.
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
– What I’d Personally Vote For: Dune
– What I Predict Will Win: Dune
– Upset Alert: Spider-Man: No Way Home
– Dark Horse: No Time To Die
– “Just Happy To Be Nominated”: Free Guy; Shang-Chi And The Legend Of The Ten Rings
– Analysis: Dune is the easy favorite here as it is in almost every single below the line tech award.
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
– What I’d Personally Vote For: The Tragedy Of Macbeth
– What I Predict Will Win: Dune
– Upset Alert: Nightmare Alley
– Dark Horse: The Tragedy Of Macbeth
– “Just Happy To Be Nominated”: The Power Of The Dog; West Side Story
– Analysis: Dune is the easy favorite here as it is in almost every single below the line tech award. Though Nightmare Alley is nipping at its heels.
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
– What I’d Personally Vote For: Cruella
– What I Predict Will Win: Cruella
– Upset Alert: Dune
– Dark Horse: West Side Story
– “Just Happy To Be Nominated”: Cyrano; Nightmare Alley
– Analysis: This is actually one of only two tech categories Dune isn’t coming into the night of favored to win as Cruella has swept up here and seems unstoppable. However I would say Dune is nipping at its heels and could have a shot to upset the Disney film.
BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
– What I’d Personally Vote For: The Eyes Of Tammy Faye
– What I Predict Will Win: The Eyes Of Tammy Faye
– Upset Alert: Coming 2 America
– Dark Horses: Cruella; House Of Gucci
– “Just Happy To Be Nominated”: Dune
– Analysis: This is actually one of only two tech categories Dune isn’t coming into the night of favored to win as The Eyes Of Tammy Faye seems poised to win here, but keep an eye out on Coming 2 America which surprised many by doing really well with the hairstyling and makeup guilds.
I would really like Drive My Car to win best picture but like Murakami and the nobel prize, I have my doubts it will happenReport