Russian Forces Invade Ukraine On Multiple Fronts: News, Updates, & Open Thread

Andrew Donaldson

Born and raised in West Virginia, Andrew has been the Managing Editor of Ordinary Times since 2018, is a widely published opinion writer, and appears in media, radio, and occasionally as a talking head on TV. He can usually be found misspelling/misusing words on Twitter@four4thefire. Andrew is the host of Heard Tell podcast. Subscribe to Andrew'sHeard Tell Substack for free here:

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105 Responses

  1. InMD says:

    Good luck to the Ukranians. Hopefully they are able to bleed the Russians out. It’s probably their only chance.Report

    • Philip H in reply to InMD says:

      yeah once the body bags pile up and Russian mothers start getting angry that’s where the sweet spot will be. But a LOT of Ukrainians may have to die first.Report

      • InMD in reply to Philip H says:

        All depends on if they attempt an occupation. That would be hubris but as we have seen no leader is immune from that. He may even start to believe his own rhetoric about them being one people, just like our idiots believed our rhetoric about hunger for democracy in the ME.

        If on the other hand they just topple the government and leave the country in a frozen state of civil war he will likely succeed in keeping Ukraine out of the EU and NATO in perpetuity.Report

    • Marchmaine in reply to InMD says:

      On paper, Ukraine has a reasonably sized military. On paper. Not sure if that’s adequately trained and armed, though. The intel suggests Russia has deployed approx 150k troops for the invasion, and Ukraine projects approx 200k regular army with 200k reserves. On paper, that should provide a speed bump, once they engage. Of course, this assumes Ukraine intends to defend the East, which I’m not confident it intends to do… or assumes Russia will invade the west, which I’m not confident it intends to do – that said, a blitz on Kiyev from Belarus as a CCC decapitation strategy to end the war with Russian annexation in the East would seem possible. That would be very 19th century.

      I must say, I got some uncomfortable ‘vibes’ in the lead-up with various social medial expositions of the ‘citizenry’ arming themselves… did not feel like Israeli mobilization, felt like instagram mobilization.

      But honestly, I don’t have a strong opinion on the readiness of the Ukrainian military. My hunch, however, is that it isn’t anywhere near ready to oppose Russia… or that would have been the strategy from the outset. I’m certainly not projecting Kiyev falling in 2-days a’la Kabul, but if Kiyev falls in two days I’m not going to be surprised.Report

      • InMD in reply to Marchmaine says:

        From early reports the Russians are doing what we would, targeting air defenses. I assume once those are down and Russia establishes air supremacy Ukraine’s regular military will be swiftly defeated.

        The one thing Ukraine may have is loyal irregulars that have 8 years of experience in the east. Whether they could eventually be the core of a partisan resistance is anyone’s guess, though if they exist I doubt they are on instagram. The other x factor is whether the civil services and general population will be cooperative with whoever is installed. Many an invader has been frustrated by purely peaceful failures to show up to work. Again though, that will depend on whether there really is a Ukrainian nation, something still to be determined.Report

        • Marchmaine in reply to InMD says:

          Yes, I’m assuming total air domination within a few days (if not already).

          I have no idea what Russia’s strategic objectives really are. Maximally it could be the complete annexation of Ukraine. Which would likely incur all of the problems you suggest. My unsubstantiated hunch would lean towards a minimal annexation of the eastern regions as a direct corridor to the Crimea; which would incur -potentially- significantly less opposition in those regions. But one doesn’t always find out how things will go until they, as they say, f*ck around.Report

          • Chip Daniels in reply to Marchmaine says:

            My suspicion is they topple the existing government and install a puppet regime.Report

          • InMD in reply to Marchmaine says:

            My prediction remains just enough to entrench civil conflict and instability thus preventing any possibility of ascension to the EU, to say nothing of NATO.

            What will be interesting is the degree to which he feels he needs to sell this to the Russian public. That kind of goal isn’t really consistent with the idea that this is to protect their fellow Russians from Western backed fascists. Does the need to maintain that perception lead to overplaying his hand?

            Time will tell.Report

            • Michael Cain in reply to InMD says:

              Reduce Ukraine’s grain exports, which compete directly with Russia. Have the extensive natural gas transit pipeline network suffer ongoing “technical problems” or “collateral damage”. If that happens, several EU countries are going to lean on Germany to let Nord Stream 2 start operating.Report

            • North in reply to InMD says:

              If I had to guess my assumption is the Russian operation will be a swift seizing and occupying of geography useful to Russian interests in the east and an attempt to decapitate the Ukrainian government if Putin thinks he can take a shot at it. Then probably a fall back to the areas he’s seized and switching to a diplomacy offensive to try and coax the EU into breaking ranks on sanctions now that the war is “over”.Report

            • Marchmaine in reply to InMD says:

              Like Crimea?

              I agree that full annexation will likely be difficult to digest; I’m less sanguine that the EU and NATO will care about the Donbas… in the medium term. Germany isn’t going to eat the Energy pain for that.

              I’m still waiting for reports on where the Ukrainian regular army is making their defensive stand… which side of the Dnieper are they on?
              There’s little hope for extended irregular fighting east of the Dnieper if the regular army isn’t east of the Dnieper and holding.Report

      • JS in reply to Marchmaine says:

        “that said, a blitz on Kiyev from Belarus as a CCC decapitation strategy to end the war with Russian annexation in the East would seem possible.”

        That appears to be what they’re trying. It looks like, at the very least, all the MANPADs neighboring countries donated are at least causing some pain. Russia’s lost some aircraft and helicopters already, despite having clear air superiority. (Ukraine’s air force was second-rate Russian stuff even before the Soviet Union broke apart. While I think the Russian claims of force modernization are 99% BS and propaganda, given they can’t even keep their sole aircraft carrier moving, they at least had a new generation of aircraft and more or less maintained them).

        I suspect that if Russia were to try to go toe-to-toe with, say, Germany alone it wouldn’t even be a bad joke. But against previous generations of their own hardware?

        That said, again — they got a lot of portable anti-air and anti-tank missiles from their neighbors, so Russia will pay the piper.

        And hand to God, Putin’s such a sociopath that I suspect he views that as a good thing. Russian body bags are good for keeping his populace angry at the Nazi controlled Ukrainians (yep, that’s an actual claim floating around) and Russia’s very strained GDP doesn’t have to pay for maintenance on exploded tanks.Report

        • Marchmaine in reply to JS says:

          Yes, the piper is always paid when hostilities commence.

          I honestly don’t know enough to handicap Russian v. Ukrainian v. German capabilities – so no comment.

          Politically there’s certainly risk for Putin and I’m not 100% sure where the Russian inflection points might be; I don’t, however, think think he’s doing this as a wag-the-dog body-bag thing you seem to imply.

          It depends, it seems to me, whether they get bogged down just inside the border and the bodies start to pile on both sides. If, however, he’s doing a photo-op in Kiyev to announce the liberated republics and the new Russian oriented Ukrainian partnership and government? Are you thinking the Russians will say enough we want to join the EU?

          I confess that I’m not following the Putin is losing his grip on Russia and therefore needs this Ukraine thing narrative. He’s deploying whatever propaganda he thinks will play in Russia. Might not work on me… but I’m not the target audience, and I have no particular confidence that outsiders are gauging Russian support correctly.Report

          • InMD in reply to Marchmaine says:

            I think we’d all probably be best off viewing any western commentary on how Russians view Putin as at best highly motivated projection. They don’t know. We don’t know.Report

          • JS in reply to Marchmaine says:

            Oh, my guess is Putin is an old man who grew up during the Cold War, and he longs for both the “glory days” of Soviet Power (not this “not even top 10 GDP with a slowly dying economy even before COVID stuff”) and wealth and views the West with the same reflexive distrust you’ll see in any 70 year old American boomer if “Communism” comes up.

            He wants to regain the buffer states, regain Russian Glory, and make everything like it was “in the good old days” except he’s in charge.

            Sprinkled in all that is the need to maintain power, keep the oligarchs happy, and keep the mob happy.

            Think of the average 70+ year old man, and how much of their view on “how things are” and “what things mean” are really based on stuff from when they were 30 or 40. Now put him in charge of Russia, and add in a paranoid KGB agent’s mindset.

            I absolutely think Putin is mentally flexible when it comes to the politics between him and the oligarchs that run the country. He does that dance every day and has for decades. I think, however, that decades in a bubble, in a very information controlled country, and the mindset of his youth are absolutely driving this mess. And the only way out is getting the one group he HAS to listen to to get him to stop — or decide to replace him.

            i do note the Russian internal PR is very hamfisted, even for Russia, and that he was clearly thrown off stride and unable to adapt to Biden openly leaking what Russia was about to do right before they did it. I also note internal Russian polling doesn’t seem to be too heavily behind this war either.

            For all the bang for his buck he got off troll farms in 2016, I’m wondering how much he’s slowed down. That PR really was BAD, even by Russian standards. It felt phoned in, which is real weird given their domestic situation.

            What’s a real worry is if he buys into the PR about his own military. Against their own second-rate Cold War leftovers they’re doing fine. I worry that he thinks that means he can steamroll NATO’s first line stuff, which would turn his army into a bloody smear across the ground, right after turning his air force into scrap.

            Because at that point, he’s got backing down or nuclear weapons. And I don’t see him backing off after a defeat.Report

  2. North says:

    Ugh, so he’s gone and done it. Now it’s up to the Europeans.Report

  3. Saul Degraw says:

    1. The U.S. should seize the property of every Russian oligarichal holding in the United States. Seize every money laundering luxury condo that they own;

    2. So far there is an interesting split between Congressional Republicans (largely anti-Russian) and the propagandists in the right-wing media and Trump (Putin loving stains). One or the other will break.Report

    • Greg In Ak in reply to Saul Degraw says:

      R’s in congress will break. Most of them at least. Once they start getting to many interviews on Fox and the propagandists really get going most will crack like an egg. Romney and some others will hold on decently.Report

    • Jaybird in reply to Saul Degraw says:

      Is this something that the executive could direct as part of his law enforcement powers or is this something that needs to go through Congress and the Senate first?Report

    • Pinky in reply to Saul Degraw says:

      You misunderstand the right re Putin. I’m not saying that to start an argument or defend anything, because this is just sad news and I don’t feel like another round of the same argument. There will be anger on the right against Biden for his perceived accidental okaying of this, and there will be natural reluctance to get involved, but I expect the Republicans to be on-board with any response Biden makes up to and including US support for the, oh God, rebels. Anything but US soldiers fighting. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Biden get more support from the Republicans than the Democrats, although if he shifts with his party doves, the Republicans may end up more hawkish.Report

      • Chip Daniels in reply to Pinky says:

        We don’t “misunderstand”.

        We can read English, and read the words of Congressional Republicans.
        We can also read the words of Tucker Carlson, Laura Ingraham, and various Republican commenters and pundits.

        Which side will prevail? Like I said, I don’t know, and I don’t think anyone really does.

        But no one is misunderstanding anything.Report

        • Pinky in reply to Chip Daniels says:

          If anyone is interested in a Republican’s perception of the likely Republican thinking, I gave it.Report

          • Chip Daniels in reply to Pinky says:

            And Tucker Carlson answered you.

            Seriously, why do you think your views should be considered more representative of Republican thinking than his, or Lauren Boebert or Margerie Taylor Greene or Paul Gosar or Donald Trump or Greg Abbot or Ron DeSantis, the guys at the Daily Wire or Federalist or National Review?Report

            • North in reply to Chip Daniels says:

              He is here, and talks to us, and the Tuck doesn’t?Report

              • Chip Daniels in reply to North says:

                Being on OT doesn’t make him representative of Republicans.
                Like I said, with the views he holds, he couldn’t be elected to any office as a Republican.

                He is one, just not a representative one.Report

              • JS in reply to North says:

                He’s already dangerously tainted by even talking to liberals.

                It’s like telling us “Most Republicans/conservatives aren’t like Greg Abbot” and then having no answer to why Greg Abbot keeps winning popularity contests that only allow Republicans and conservatives to vote.

                At some point, you have to realize that you don’t speak for your party anymore, if you ever did. And if you stay, and keep defending them — then really you don’t have that much of a problem with Greg Abbott, do you?Report

              • Philip H in reply to JS says:

                Given that Pinky is openly and proudly anti-abortion, no I don’t think he has any problems with Abbot.Report

      • Philip H in reply to Pinky says:

        There will be anger on the right against Biden for his perceived accidental okaying of this

        No idea what you think that means, but He has not okayed anything Russia has done in Ukraine since he got into office.

        I expect the Republicans to be on-board with any response Biden makes up to and including US support for the, oh God, rebels. Anything but US soldiers fighting.

        well if the follow Mr. Trump’s lead, and they generally do, then they will find a way to make this Biden’s fault. the Mississippi delegation (which only has one democrat) has called Biden too timid and hesitant, even as we sent tens of billions in arms to Ukraine, ratchet up sanctions and repositioned troops. SO far, the only statements of full throated support come from Democrats.Report

  4. Jaybird says:

    Welp.

    Report

  5. Jaybird says:

    There are more countries with hackers than merely Russia.

    Report

    • InMD in reply to Jaybird says:

      Everyone’s cyber liability premiums are about to go through the roof, as if that guy at Colonial Pipeline trying to see some boobs hadn’t already made things bad enough.Report

  6. Kazzy says:

    Can someone give me an elevator speech on why all this is happening now? I’m woefully ignorant on this.Report

    • JS in reply to Kazzy says:

      Russia invaded Ukraine last night, with the aid of Belarus, which is basically a Russian puppet state. They’re driving hard, and clearly looked like they wanted to take the capital outright and airlift troops, and pacify the country later.

      Why they’re doing this? Explanations range from Putin is a paranoid old KGB type who wants buffer states between him and, well, the “West” which he still thinks of as an enemy to Putin is desperate to distract his own populace from their economic woes, which COVID has made far worse, etc.

      Mostly, he’s just trying to finish the job from 2014 when he tried this the first time, and Ukraine managed to stall him.

      The West, by and large, is unwilling to risk WW3 for a non-NATO country (which wasn’t allowed IN NATO mostly to avoid triggering Putin to invade), but seems to be coalescing around responding by explaining to a paranoid old KGB type that he might love tanks and polonium tea, but it’s money that makes the world go ’round, and slapping a level of sanctions that make the last round like a love tap. (And the last round made him try to buy a US President and spend four years trying to get them lifted, and created a hatred for Obama and Clinton that is akin to a blood rage).

      In fact the UK is pushing to basically cut Russia off from SWIFT entirely, basically isolating them from the world banking system. I believe Biden is mulling starting to seize oligarch assets in addition to the already stated sanction threats. The Russian market and ruble are in free-fall and nobody’s done anything yet.

      A cynical man might look at the sanctions being discussed by the West, and asset seizures, and note that while it does hurt the Russian economy badly, it very much hurts the dozen or so oligarchs that Putin more or less needs to keep on his side (or at least splintered), and who have access to the same sorts of means and methods Putin cheerfully uses to cause ‘accidents’ to people he dislikes.

      I don’t think any NATO country would be terribly unhappy if Putin were to accidentally fall out a window and someone less invasion happy took over. Why, sanctions might even be dropped to celebrate the new regime.Report

      • Michael Cain in reply to JS says:

        I doubt the SWIFT thing will happen, as Putin’s obvious response is to say, “Not going to pay for all that natural gas? Spigot turns off now!” It’s easy for the UK to make that demand, less than 5% of the UK’s gas comes from Russia. Germany is like 40%, Austria around 65%. Stored gas mitigates that somewhat, but eventually the EU is looking at a recession/depression sized problem.Report

        • JS in reply to Michael Cain says:

          They can and likely will simply switch suppliers and pay the premium. Pipelines are cheaper, but LNG can and is transported in a number of ways.

          It’s certainly one reason Germany is dragging it’s feet on SWIFT, but bluntly — if this doesn’t cause them to realize that depending on Russia to keep the power on is a bad idea, they might as well ask if Putin’s new Russian Empire needs a German puppet state.Report

        • Brent F in reply to Michael Cain says:

          The German’s are one to watch, because naked economic interest calls for a slow roll from them. But this is a new government and it can become a matter of honour/German blood guilt. And I wouldn’t underestimate what a German would do to reclaim another piece of their national soul.Report

        • North in reply to Michael Cain says:

          Yeah that’s the twenty four hundred dollar question. If Europe turns the spigots off, gets the recession, grits their teeth and bears it then a clock starts ticking in Russia and when their stash of cash runs out Russia’s economy goes the way of Iran. But Putin is betting that the European voting public won’t be willing to weather that kind of pain (and their politicians won’t want to risk their jobs asking them to) over Ukraine.Report

          • JS in reply to North says:

            The Russian market has already crawled up inside itself and gone catatonic.

            Much more of that, especially if Western countries decide to go after oligarch money and assets, and Putin is going to get pressure from people he really does need to listen to.

            Those guys didn’t steal and murder and blackmail for decades to have all their stolen money and power taken from them so Putin can indulge in his paranoia.Report

            • North in reply to JS says:

              Possibly, possibly, but the majority of their wealth is, of course, parked within Russia and thus can’t be appropriated. I do think the west should go after oligarch money where they can get it but I don’t maintain the illusion that doing so will kill the oligarchs. But Russia isn’t self sufficient and when their foreign reserves run out a lot of stuff will go wildly bad for them. But they have a lot of foreign reserves. So it requires broad reaching and strong sanctions; and sticking with them for quite some time. It’s anyone’s guess if such things are possible.

              Also if Ukraine folds entirely and their government is wiped out, then what?Report

              • JS in reply to North says:

                “Possibly, possibly, but the majority of their wealth is, of course, parked within Russia and thus can’t be appropriated”

                Well, the cratering Russian market helps with that.

                And then there’s something of a blunt truth: They also didn’t steal all that money to be stuck spending in just in Russia. Cut them off from their foreign wealth, with the value of the ruble in free fall and the Russian market cratering?

                How will they afford the finer things? Everything will have to be purchased with rubles via the black market, and they’d be unable to really leave Russia and spend money elsewhere depending on exactly how bloodthirsty the sanctions are.Report

              • North in reply to JS says:

                Yup, and again it filters back to a question of political and economic will. All those things those oligarchs purchase advantage non-Russian interests and economies. When Putin starts doing his whole song and dance of “c’mon, it’s over, why cling to sanctions…” a lot of people will be tempted.Report

              • JS in reply to North says:

                I suspect Germany is hoping Ukraine turns into a quagmire.

                It might. They’re certainly loaded for bear, and they were gifted quite a supply of things that Iraqi and Afghanistan guerillas would have traded their children for.

                Not to mention sharing a nice big border with a bunch of countries that will HAPPILY send them all sorts of party presents to keep fighting even after a surrender.

                I don’t see sanctions easing up until Putin is dead, TBH. NATO would much prefer not to court nuclear war, but NATO also doesn’t have much of a choice except collective response if he moves on a NATO country.

                NATO doesn’t fear the Russian military for a hot second. They fear it’s nukes.Report

              • North in reply to JS says:

                Mmmhmmm the hawks are hawky I agree and for Ukraine- it turning into a bloody quagmire is roughly their best case scenario. The only area I differ is we’re ignoring public resolve. To beat Russia the sanctions would have to be ferocious and consistent. It remains to be seen if the Germans or the west writ large is willing to back those sanctions up or if the politicians are willing to take the risk of imposing them.

                Best case scenario for the west: Bloody grind in Ukraine, consistent ferocious sanctions despite savage recession and inflation.

                Best case for Russia: Quick decapitation of Ukraine, occupation of the bits they want, then when Russia offers “drop the sanctions and we’ll pretend nothing happened” the Europeans break ranks and the sanctions collapse (either before or after a bloodbath election).

                Worst Case: Putin loses his fishing mind, dukes it out with NATO and lets fly some fishin nukes.Report

              • JS in reply to North says:

                I believe his original “We’re coming in as peacekeepers to the territories we already really control” is his fallback if he can’t manage that decapitation.

                He’ll pull back, declare victory, claim he’s destroyed the Ukrainian nuclear program out of Chernobyl (probably cracking the dome out of pure spite and to give NATO a huge problem to deal with), and pull back to reinforce the territory he already really had.

                He’ll declare victory to his populace, and then start screaming about the unfair West and sanctions and blame Russian suffering on them.

                And again, and I mean this literally: Russia will NEVER economically recover from this mess. The benefits of taking Ukraine, even absent sanctions will simply never be worth what he paid.Report

              • Greg In Ak in reply to JS says:

                Yeah, this is a massive short term play with the medium and long term looking terrible for putin and russia. Lots of people in western europe are fine with autocratic sob in russia as long as things go smooth enough. Things get rocky and there is a lot of fear that won’t go away for a very long time. Putin knows he can win the short term but geez after that….Report

              • Philip H in reply to Greg In Ak says:

                He has spent most of his adult life bullying to this very moment. He won’t stop unless he is stopped.Report

              • North in reply to Greg In Ak says:

                In the long term he’s dead, of course. He ain’t a young man.Report

              • Greg In Ak in reply to North says:

                He’s 69 (teenage boys may now chuckle). I’m betting he feels young and believes he will be in power for another decade or two. Not like the old soviet leaders had a thing for youth.Report

              • North in reply to JS says:

                Oh agreed. Ukrainian territory is, if anything, an economic drag to acquire. The more of it he takes the more people he’s responsible for providing for and the more infrastructure he has to build. It’s not exactly gold/oil rich territory*- mostly it’s just defunct old industrial stuff.

                He definitely is hoping he can go in, go out and then present a fait accompli. At the heart of this mess is a single question: how much of a fight can Ukraine put up and how much economic pain can Europeans accept.
                *Though they have amazing soil.Report

        • Dark Matter in reply to Michael Cain says:

          Media just announced that SWIFT is happening. Supposedly we got good at this dealing with the Iranians.

          https://www.cnn.com/2022/02/26/politics/biden-ukraine-russia-swift/index.htmlReport

          • Select banks will be blocked. Everything I have read suggests that the gas and oil payments will go through without any problems.

            The German government has announced crash construction of two LNG terminals. Everyone is asking if that means they’re going to ignore the EU rules against state subsidies on energy infrastructure.Report

      • Kazzy in reply to JS says:

        Thank you! Very helpful.Report

  7. Marchmaine says:

    Wondering at this moment what the real capabilities on both sides on the cyber-front are.

    Like, we’re hinting that maybe we could shut down big systems in Russia… and I’m wondering if we could, why we wouldn’t… and if the wouldn’t has to do with – let’s say – trading power in NYC for power in Moscow.

    Maybe Mr. Moline could comment on where he thinks the Cyber-Mutually-Assured-Destruction lines are drawn?Report

  8. Chip Daniels says:

    One of the artists I follow on Instagram turns out to be Ukrainian and posted a heartbreaking message, personalizing the abstract.

    https://www.instagram.com/alksko/Report

  9. Philip H says:

    We just got our Heightened Cybersecurity Posture notification at work.Report

  10. Philip H says:

    Speaking in generalities from the White House, Biden said his administration would stunt the Russian military’s ability to finance and grow its force; freeze U.S. assets held by Russian banks, including VTB; target elites and members of Putin’s inner circle; and curtail Russia’s high-tech imports in a way that could damage Moscow’s aerospace industry.

    Minutes later, the White House and Treasury Department released fact sheets detailing the moves: cutting off Sberbank from the U.S. financial system; placing full blocking sanctions on VTB and three other Russian financial institutions; imposing new debt and equity restrictions on 13 enterprises and entities; targeting seven Russian elites and their families; and hitting 24 Belarusians for supporting Russia’s invasion.

    Notably, the president didn’t announce crushing sanctions on Russia’s energy sector, including conglomerates like Rosneft. He did say the sanctions might not have an immediate effect, but over time could prove punishing for Putin. “Let’s have a conversation in another month or so to see if they’re working,” he said.

    The administration is concerned about global energy markets, a person familiar with the situation told POLITICO. Another person familiar said the focus of the sanctions this time around was on financial institutions.

    https://www.politico.com/news/2022/02/24/russia-sanctions-ukraine-invasion-00011431Report

    • Philip H in reply to Philip H says:

      from the same story:

      Biden also announced the deployment of ground and air forces to countries on NATO’s eastern front, including Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland and Romania — though he reiterated that U.S. troops won’t go into Ukraine to fight Russia.

      Report

      • Marchmaine in reply to Philip H says:

        “Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania”

        This is Schroedinger’s NATO.

        On the one hand, it is plausible that Putin would not consider expanding the conflict to the Baltics because of NATO… on the other hand, if he wanted to break NATO he’d force Article V existential crisis over Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania.

        * Could add Romania to that mix… but honestly I feel people would throw Romania under the bus.
        ** Poland, by contrast, would validate NATO.Report

  11. Greg In Ak says:

    What is a bit a baffling is how putin has gamed out the Euro response. The Sweeds and Finns met with NATO today. This may push them very far towards trying to join NATO or to at least strong security guarantees. Certainly western euro countries and the Baltic’s are going to be pouring money into their military’s. vlady gets a bit of …..how do you say living space in russian…but this is most likely to lead to them surrounded by increasingly strong foes including some that already hate the russians and have well proven fear of them. Not going to happen today or in week, but in a month or two russian “strategic” thinkers may be watching every country that borders buying MANPADS, ATGM’s, tanks and every other damn thing. Do russians really want to watch the delivery of a few thousand TOW’s to Helsinki? How much do the German’s spend on their mil after today? A few hundred new Leopards would stack burned out russian armor and dead russians in heaping mounds if they were tested.

    One possibility of course is putin knows this but is fine with this and will use the strength of enemies to help keep people afraid and keep his lock on power. It’s also possible others in the kremlin might get that is not good for russia.Report

    • Philip H in reply to Greg In Ak says:

      One possibility of course is putin knows this but is fine with this and will use the strength of enemies to help keep people afraid and keep his lock on power.

      Given the rhetoric and mocking sarcasm he’s used up to this point I think this is your lede.Report

  12. LeeEsq says:

    Brave Russians protested the war in Saint Petersburg. Ireland has waved visa requirements for Ukrainians. There is a long stream of people heading to western Ukraine from Kiev.Report

  13. Philip H says:

    From the Number 3 in Republican House Leadership Elise Stefanik:

    “After just one year of a weak, feckless, and unfit President of the United States and Commander-in-Chief, the world is less safe. Rather than peace through strength, we are witnessing Joe Biden’s foreign policy of war through weakness. For the past year, our adversaries around the world have been assessing and measuring Joe Biden’s leadership on the world stage, and he has abysmally failed on every metric. From kinetic and deadly attacks on our allies and partners, to the catastrophic withdrawal and surrender in Afghanistan, to the cyber attacks impeding American industry and infrastructure, to today’s Russian invasion of Ukraine, Joe Biden and his Administration have failed America and the world.”

    That’s not support of the President. Not by along shot.Report

  14. Brandon Berg says:

    In the interest of being the change I would like to see in the world, I will begin and end my commentary on this situation with an acknowledgement that I have at best slightly above average understanding of the issue and thus have no special insight to offer.Report

  15. InMD says:

    Very interesting piece on how this may have been avoided, written 3 days before the invasion too:

    https://nonzero.substack.com/p/why-biden-didnt-negotiate-seriously

    I cop that it confirms my priors about the Blob but I do think it’s a solid counter point to the idea that Putin is just too crazy/evil to be negotiated with.Report

    • Marchmaine in reply to InMD says:

      It captures my (dated) experience with the foreign policy establishment pretty well.

      My one caveat is that we’re never really clear on the communications front/back-channels that happened until we get the correspondence 50+ yrs later.

      And even more challenging, in a ‘path dependent way’ the hardest thing I studied in foreign policy was that the number of options at any given moment were often constrained by years of prior actions. Which is why the typical Political Activist Congressional Local Organizer type of model for Twitter or Commentors is so wide the mark on foreign affairs.

      e.g. the best way to make NATO powerful is to make it small and the massive implied threat totally credible… expanding NATO weakens NATO at it’s very core… it also constrains us from conventional options because we’ve muddled NATO’s existential threat into areas where it isn’t existential. Biden has fewer options owing to NATO expansion.Report

      • InMD in reply to Marchmaine says:

        Well yea. Mutual defense means something when it’s us plus a handful of other decently capable powers like the UK, France, Germany, Italy, and Turkey. And sure folding in the little mini-countries already geographically surrounded by those bigger ones isn’t hurting anyone.

        But now we really have to think about whether we’d risk nuclear armageddon over Latvia… which is 25% f—ing Russian! Setting up such an obvious bluff could itself he seem as a provocation and increase the risk of war.Report

        • Chip Daniels in reply to InMD says:

          There’s more to mutual defense than nuclear weapons, right?

          A strong alliance also incudes the willingness to use economic and political pressure, and having a larger group in the alliance gives those tools greater strength.Report

          • InMD in reply to Chip Daniels says:

            Other things are all well and good but mutual defense means you’re willing to send your own people to their deaths over an attack on the other. You never do it lightly, and in a democracy, it’s something the people get a say in, at least eventually.Report

          • Marchmaine in reply to Chip Daniels says:

            No, that’s not what NATO is for. There are other organizations for that sort of collective action on matters that don’t pertain to mutual defense of NATO members.

            That’s been a core ‘debate’ for decades as NATO has expanded it’s idea of NATO outside of it’s charter. That’s been the Neo-Con/Liberal Interventionist position on NATO and the counter argument was that doing so puts NATO in a weaker position with less room for member Nations to act outside of NATO.Report

          • The big hurdle here is the kind of EU vs NATO obligations that appear to be giving Germany fits.

            NATO issued a long communiquĂŠ last year describing how they would go forward. The only place economic sanctions are mentioned is when they encourage all nations, NATO members or not, to enforce the UN sanctions against North Korea. Political, conventional military, and nuclear deterrents are mentioned again and again. Economic weapons, not at all.

            I suspect that there were several of the EU members who balked on allowing economic weapons. Suppose NATO wanted to order its members to not buy Russian natural gas, nor allow it to transit NATO countries. Germany’s in a tough spot: that action would almost certainly violate treaty obligations they have to Austria, a non-NATO EU member. The US (and now the UK) may have to face up to the reality that many/most of its members believe economic responses are not in NATO’s purview.Report

    • Brent F in reply to InMD says:

      Both of his premises have been torpedoed by the invasion itself. Going for all of Ukraine tell you that this wasn’t really about NATO, it was about rebuilding the Russian Empire, and the extent NATO is involved its because the Article 5 guarantee and implied nuclear shield is a barrier to those ambitions.

      Second, buy making a massive invasion of the entire Ukrainian state, Putin is doing something most observers discounted because it was kinda crazy. And Hitler wasn’t a gibbering madman either, he was pretty rational within his own skewed framework (sometimes more rational than his own generals/subordinates).Report

  16. InMD says:

    Russia meeting stiffer resistance than anticipated:

    https://www.economist.com/europe/2022/02/25/kyiv-continues-to-defy-an-intensifying-russian-assault

    Good for the Ukranians. If they can hold out long enough to have a seat at the settlement table without capitulation they’ll have earned their independence. Follow the path of Finland. We should send them as much weapons and aid as we can.

    Hard to know what is real vs. wishful thinking but Russian tactics, tech, and capabilities getting a lot of criticism as behind the times.Report

    • Michael Cain in reply to InMD says:

      What terrifies me is that the Russians will pick one of the smaller cities and turn their artillery loose on it for 24 hours. If they’re even half as good as the Pentagon and NATO have been telling us for years, that should be long enough to get to the “just bouncing rubble” state.

      Putin may be crazy enough to do it rather than take the casualties of sending tanks and/or infantry in.Report

  17. InMD says:

    Mod help requested. I have sinned by editing a omment with a link. Please and thank you.Report

  18. InMD says:

    Kharkiv and Kiev lasted another night. Ukraine and Russia agreeing to talks at the Belarussian border.

    Good point I saw was that it took the US about 2 weeks to defeat Baathist Iraq so any celebration is way premature. Still impressive showing from Ukraine so far, certainly better than I would have thought. Way too soon for hard predictions but this could turn out to be quite the blunder by Putin especially if the long term result is re-militarizing the European continent.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/02/27/russia-ukraine-war-kyiv-news/Report