Russian Forces Invade Ukraine On Multiple Fronts: News, Updates, & Open Thread
Sky News Live Feed, News and Updates to follow below:
Sunday morning updates from the BBC:
In case you’re just joining us, let’s take a minute to recap the latest lines coming out of Ukraine and elsewhere in Europe this morning:
Russian troops have entered Kharkiv, the country’s second-largest city, where they are fighting Ukrainian soldiers on the streets. Local authorities in the north-eastern city say Russian light vehicles have breached its centre and are urging civilians to remain in places of shelter
President Volodmyr Zelensky has rejected Moscow’s offer to meet for talks in Belarus. Kyiv says it is ready to negotiate with Russia elsewhere, but not in Belarus as the country is being used by Russia to launch its invasion into Ukraine
Also this morning, Zelensky announced that Ukraine is setting up an “international” legion of volunteers for foreigners wishing to join the Ukrainian army in its fight against Russian forces
The UK says that despite advances from multiple directions on Ukraine, it believes Russian forces are encountering “stiff resistance” from the country’s army. According to intelligence assessments from London fighting continued last night in Kyiv, but at a lower intensity than the previous night
Ukrainian civilians have also been attempting to block the advance of Russian forces peacefully. One video, believed to be recorded in the Chernihiv region, shows local residents halting a convoy of Russian tanks by walking at them en masse
Finland and Ireland are closing their air space to all Russian flights. The UK and a majority of EU countries have done the same – and the EU says a formal decision by the bloc is expected on this shortly.
Meanwhile, from The Guardian:
The US pledged an additional $350m in military assistance to Ukraine, while Germany said it would send missiles and anti-tank weapons, in a major U-turn from its longstanding policy of not exporting weapons to war zones.
The British prime minister, Boris Johnson, praised the heroism of the Ukrainian armed forces, but warned that the country faced âgrim daysâ ahead.
âThe Ukrainians are fighting heroically, and in some places with great success, as many of us thought they would because theyâre a great country and a very brave country,â Johnson told reporters after a phone call with Zelenskiy. âIt is incredibly important for tightening the economic ligature around the Putin regime.â
Liz Truss, the foreign secretary, said there would be ânowhere left to hideâ for wealthy allies of the Kremlin. In an interview with the Sunday Times, Truss said new names added to a list of oligarchs every few weeks as ministers seek to ratchet up the pressure on the president Vladimir Putin.
âWeâve already had letters to the foreign office, from lawyers, threatening us, so we have to make sure the cases are properly prepared and that we have the right evidence before we sanction these individuals,â she said.
âThat is why weâre taking it step by step, but we are working through that hit list and we will continue to sanction new oligarchs every few weeks.â
The UN security council is due to vote on Sunday to call for a rare emergency special session of the UN general assembly to discuss the Russian invasion.
With no veto option, the move needs only nine votes in favour and is likely to pass, diplomats said, with the meeting expected to be held on Monday.
The weekend has seen smaller acts of defiance and yet more support for Ukraine from overseas.
And a Ukrainian company in charge of building and maintaining roads said it was removing all road signs that could be used by invading Russian forces to find their way around the country. The company, Ukravtodor, said in a Facebook post: The enemy has poor communications, they cannot navigate the terrain. Let us help them get straight to hell.â
Videos circulating on Ukrainian media showed groups of Ukrainian women making Molotov cocktails. The BBCâs Sarah Rainsford said crowds of women in Dnipro in central Ukraine spent Saturday making the devices. âTeachers, lawyers, housewives, all crouched on the grass, filling bottles. They told me they try not to think about what theyâre doing. They didnât choose this. But they have to be ready to defend their city,â she said.
Japanese billionaire Hiroshi âMickeyâ Mikitani, meanwhile, said he would donate $8.7m to the government of Ukraine, calling Russiaâs invasion âa challenge to democracyâ.
The founder of e-commerce giant Rakuten said in a letter addressed to Zelenskiy that the donation of 1 billion yen ($8.7m) will go toward âhumanitarian activities to help people in Ukraine who are victims of the violenceâ, Agence France-Presse reported.
Some Saturday Morning Updates from the BBC:
It is the third day of Russia’s attack on Ukraine, its southern neighbour. Here are the latest developments:
There was fighting in and around Kyiv overnight. Ukraine’s military said it repelled Russian forces near its base on a major city street
A residential apartment block in Kyiv was struck and sustained severe damage
In the morning President Zelensky posted a video of himself in front of city landmarks, denying reports he had ordered a surrender and vowing that Ukraine would defend itself
Russia’s defence ministry said its forces had control of the south-eastern city of Melitopol – but a UK minister told the BBC he was sceptical of the claim
UK Armed Forces Minister James Heappey says the UK and 25 other countries have agreed to provide arms to Ukraine
The health ministry said 198 Ukrainians had been killed so far, including two children, and more than 1,000 had been injured
Poland has refused to play a World Cup qualifying match against Russia in Moscow in March – its football federation said it was “time to act”
The UN estimates that 100,000 people have escaped Ukraine in the past 48 hours
Update: 05:45am EST
The Russian forces who have reportedly entered the Ukrainian capital are seemingly centred around the northern district of Obolon.
The heavily residential area is just 9km north of Kyivâs parliament and the city centre.
Just before 10am local time, Ukraineâs Defence Ministry tweeted that enemy Russian operatives were in the area
The defence ministry called on locals to rally and make Molotov cocktails to fight back
Meanwhile, several videos online appear to show armoured vehicles rolling down mostly-empty roads in Obolon
The BBC has verified that Obolon is the location seen in the videos
There are also videos appearing to show fighting between civilians and people in military uniform
Kyiv has also been attacked from the air, with residents taking shelter in underground railway stations
Also, China is creeping closer and closer to outright supporting Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, adapting the language of the Kremlin’s excuses.
Long-time Russian ally China is still declining to condemn Russia, with its foreign ministry refusing to call Russia’s action against Ukraine an “invasion”.
At a daily news briefing in Beijing, spokesman Wang Wenbin reiterated China’s position that while it respected the territorial integrity of all countries, it also understood “Russia’s legitimate concerns on security issues”.
He added that China still recognised Ukraine as a legitimate state and believed the door to a political solution still had not shut in Ukraine, but did not give suggestions on how dialogue could take place.
He also did not say whether or not Beijing would recognise the self-declared breakaway republics of Donetsk and Luhansk in the east of Ukraine.
The BBC asked for a response to US President Joe Bidenâs comment that âany nation which countenances Russiaâs aggression in Ukraine will be stained by associationâ.
Wang responded that the “country whose reputation will be stained is that which interfered in other nationâs internal affairs in the name of human rights and which went on to wage warsâ.
In terms of sanctions, he said that since 2011, the US had imposed more than 100 sanctions on Russia, yet they had not worked, and that sanctions would only cause suffering.
Update: 3:05pm EST
President Biden announced sanctions at the White House and took some questions:
Original Post:
Russian forces fired missiles at several cities in Ukraine and landed troops on its coast on Thursday, officials and media said, after President Vladimir Putin authorised what he called a special military operation in the east.
Shortly after Putin spoke in a televised address on Russian state TV, explosions could be heard in the pre-dawn quiet of the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv.
Gunfire rattled near the capital’s main airport, the Interfax news agency said, and sirens were heard over the city.
“Putin has just launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Peaceful Ukrainian cities are under strikes,” Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said on Twitter.
“This is a war of aggression. Ukraine will defend itself and will win. The world can and must stop Putin. The time to act is now.”
U.S. President Joe Biden, reacting to an invasion the United States had been predicting for weeks, said his prayers were with the people of Ukraine “as they suffer an unprovoked and unjustified attack”, while promising tough sanctions in response. read more
“I will be meeting with the leaders of the G7, and the United States and our allies and partners will be imposing severe sanctions on Russia,” Biden said in a statement.
Russia has demanded an end to NATO’s eastward expansion and Putin repeated his position that Ukrainian membership of the U.S.-led Atlantic military alliance was unacceptable.
He said he had authorised military action after Russia had been left with no choice but to defend itself against what he said were threats emanating from modern Ukraine, a democratic state of 44 million people.
“Russia cannot feel safe, develop, and exist with a constant threat emanating from the territory of modern Ukraine,” Putin said. “All responsibility for bloodshed will be on the conscience of the ruling regime in Ukraine.” read more
The full scope of the Russian military operation was not immediately clear but Putin said: “Our plans do not include the occupation of Ukrainian territories. We are not going to impose anything by force.”
Speaking as the U.N. Security Council held an emergency meeting in New York, Putin said he had ordered Russian forces to protect the people and appealed to the Ukrainian military to lay down their arms.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said Russia had carried out missile strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure and border guards, and that explosions had been heard in many cities. An official also reported non-stop cyber attacks.
Zelenskiy said that martial law had been declared and that he had spoken by telephone to Biden. Reservists were called up on Wednesday.
Three hours after Putin gave his order, Russia’s defence ministry said it had taken out military infrastructure at Ukrainian air bases and degraded its air defences, Russian media reported.
Good luck to the Ukranians. Hopefully they are able to bleed the Russians out. It’s probably their only chance.Report
yeah once the body bags pile up and Russian mothers start getting angry that’s where the sweet spot will be. But a LOT of Ukrainians may have to die first.Report
All depends on if they attempt an occupation. That would be hubris but as we have seen no leader is immune from that. He may even start to believe his own rhetoric about them being one people, just like our idiots believed our rhetoric about hunger for democracy in the ME.
If on the other hand they just topple the government and leave the country in a frozen state of civil war he will likely succeed in keeping Ukraine out of the EU and NATO in perpetuity.Report
On paper, Ukraine has a reasonably sized military. On paper. Not sure if that’s adequately trained and armed, though. The intel suggests Russia has deployed approx 150k troops for the invasion, and Ukraine projects approx 200k regular army with 200k reserves. On paper, that should provide a speed bump, once they engage. Of course, this assumes Ukraine intends to defend the East, which I’m not confident it intends to do… or assumes Russia will invade the west, which I’m not confident it intends to do – that said, a blitz on Kiyev from Belarus as a CCC decapitation strategy to end the war with Russian annexation in the East would seem possible. That would be very 19th century.
I must say, I got some uncomfortable ‘vibes’ in the lead-up with various social medial expositions of the ‘citizenry’ arming themselves… did not feel like Israeli mobilization, felt like instagram mobilization.
But honestly, I don’t have a strong opinion on the readiness of the Ukrainian military. My hunch, however, is that it isn’t anywhere near ready to oppose Russia… or that would have been the strategy from the outset. I’m certainly not projecting Kiyev falling in 2-days a’la Kabul, but if Kiyev falls in two days I’m not going to be surprised.Report
From early reports the Russians are doing what we would, targeting air defenses. I assume once those are down and Russia establishes air supremacy Ukraine’s regular military will be swiftly defeated.
The one thing Ukraine may have is loyal irregulars that have 8 years of experience in the east. Whether they could eventually be the core of a partisan resistance is anyone’s guess, though if they exist I doubt they are on instagram. The other x factor is whether the civil services and general population will be cooperative with whoever is installed. Many an invader has been frustrated by purely peaceful failures to show up to work. Again though, that will depend on whether there really is a Ukrainian nation, something still to be determined.Report
Yes, I’m assuming total air domination within a few days (if not already).
I have no idea what Russia’s strategic objectives really are. Maximally it could be the complete annexation of Ukraine. Which would likely incur all of the problems you suggest. My unsubstantiated hunch would lean towards a minimal annexation of the eastern regions as a direct corridor to the Crimea; which would incur -potentially- significantly less opposition in those regions. But one doesn’t always find out how things will go until they, as they say, f*ck around.Report
My suspicion is they topple the existing government and install a puppet regime.Report
eh, that’s a likely byproduct of whatever happens… but I think Russia is more interested in hard assets than unreliable puppets.Report
My prediction remains just enough to entrench civil conflict and instability thus preventing any possibility of ascension to the EU, to say nothing of NATO.
What will be interesting is the degree to which he feels he needs to sell this to the Russian public. That kind of goal isn’t really consistent with the idea that this is to protect their fellow Russians from Western backed fascists. Does the need to maintain that perception lead to overplaying his hand?
Time will tell.Report
Reduce Ukraine’s grain exports, which compete directly with Russia. Have the extensive natural gas transit pipeline network suffer ongoing “technical problems” or “collateral damage”. If that happens, several EU countries are going to lean on Germany to let Nord Stream 2 start operating.Report
That’s quite clever, well done.Report
If I had to guess my assumption is the Russian operation will be a swift seizing and occupying of geography useful to Russian interests in the east and an attempt to decapitate the Ukrainian government if Putin thinks he can take a shot at it. Then probably a fall back to the areas he’s seized and switching to a diplomacy offensive to try and coax the EU into breaking ranks on sanctions now that the war is “over”.Report
If I had to guess… yes.Report
Like Crimea?
I agree that full annexation will likely be difficult to digest; I’m less sanguine that the EU and NATO will care about the Donbas… in the medium term. Germany isn’t going to eat the Energy pain for that.
I’m still waiting for reports on where the Ukrainian regular army is making their defensive stand… which side of the Dnieper are they on?
There’s little hope for extended irregular fighting east of the Dnieper if the regular army isn’t east of the Dnieper and holding.Report
I don’t think the question is necessarily whether the EU/NATO care about the Donbas, it’s whether any hypothetical remaining independent Ukrainian state does. Like, would that entity be permitted to ascend to those other international organizations with a potentially permanent territorial dispute with Russia? I have to think there would always be at least one veto.
On the ‘last stand’ that’s what I’ve been trying to find but not seeing anything yet. Like where are the Ukranians actually contesting the advance?Report
I think that’s kind of info we won’t have until well after the fact.Report
Allegedly fighting is heaviest in Kharkiv in the east. Reports are that the Russians are aiming for the big population centers.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2022/02/24/russia-ukraine-invasion/6920609001/Report
I see… I’m not sure EU membership or NATO membership was ever really an option… more of a cruel joke that the McCain faction liked to play on various people throughout the world. I still have my ‘We’re All Georgians Now’ T-shirt.Report
You call them the McCain faction, but I would call them the people that were firmly in charge of the permanent American foreign policy establishment from roughly 1993-2016!
And I don’t think they (or at least not all of them) thought it was a joke. They were dead wrong of course about what was actually possible but I don’t think it was intentional misdirection. I think they believed it, in large part because they have always been too high on the theory of international relations and too light on history.Report
Neocons on the right, liberal internationalists on the left?Report
Beyond that there is a base level school of thought that the advance of democratic and neoliberal/capitalist institutions is the best and maybe only way to secure international peace. Both of those ideologies ground their political thought in this idea.
If you want a taste of it in terms of mainstream accessibility read basically anything Anne Applebaum writes. Or listen to her recent interview with Andrew Sullivan.Report
Sullivan also had John Mearsheimer on as well for another different angle.Report
I listened to that too.Report
Here I am, stuck in the middle with youReport
Ah, you beat me to it!Report
At least the company is good!Report
Close. But for the purposes of accuracy, it’s: “clowns to the left of me, jokers to the right.” But basically, yes.Report
Sure… the Blob in popular parlance.
The difference to me is that McCain and Co were simply drunk on American hegemony whereas the the Liberal Interventionists were high on American hegemony.
See the difference?Report
“that said, a blitz on Kiyev from Belarus as a CCC decapitation strategy to end the war with Russian annexation in the East would seem possible.”
That appears to be what they’re trying. It looks like, at the very least, all the MANPADs neighboring countries donated are at least causing some pain. Russia’s lost some aircraft and helicopters already, despite having clear air superiority. (Ukraine’s air force was second-rate Russian stuff even before the Soviet Union broke apart. While I think the Russian claims of force modernization are 99% BS and propaganda, given they can’t even keep their sole aircraft carrier moving, they at least had a new generation of aircraft and more or less maintained them).
I suspect that if Russia were to try to go toe-to-toe with, say, Germany alone it wouldn’t even be a bad joke. But against previous generations of their own hardware?
That said, again — they got a lot of portable anti-air and anti-tank missiles from their neighbors, so Russia will pay the piper.
And hand to God, Putin’s such a sociopath that I suspect he views that as a good thing. Russian body bags are good for keeping his populace angry at the Nazi controlled Ukrainians (yep, that’s an actual claim floating around) and Russia’s very strained GDP doesn’t have to pay for maintenance on exploded tanks.Report
Yes, the piper is always paid when hostilities commence.
I honestly don’t know enough to handicap Russian v. Ukrainian v. German capabilities – so no comment.
Politically there’s certainly risk for Putin and I’m not 100% sure where the Russian inflection points might be; I don’t, however, think think he’s doing this as a wag-the-dog body-bag thing you seem to imply.
It depends, it seems to me, whether they get bogged down just inside the border and the bodies start to pile on both sides. If, however, he’s doing a photo-op in Kiyev to announce the liberated republics and the new Russian oriented Ukrainian partnership and government? Are you thinking the Russians will say enough we want to join the EU?
I confess that I’m not following the Putin is losing his grip on Russia and therefore needs this Ukraine thing narrative. He’s deploying whatever propaganda he thinks will play in Russia. Might not work on me… but I’m not the target audience, and I have no particular confidence that outsiders are gauging Russian support correctly.Report
I think we’d all probably be best off viewing any western commentary on how Russians view Putin as at best highly motivated projection. They don’t know. We don’t know.Report
Oh, my guess is Putin is an old man who grew up during the Cold War, and he longs for both the “glory days” of Soviet Power (not this “not even top 10 GDP with a slowly dying economy even before COVID stuff”) and wealth and views the West with the same reflexive distrust you’ll see in any 70 year old American boomer if “Communism” comes up.
He wants to regain the buffer states, regain Russian Glory, and make everything like it was “in the good old days” except he’s in charge.
Sprinkled in all that is the need to maintain power, keep the oligarchs happy, and keep the mob happy.
Think of the average 70+ year old man, and how much of their view on “how things are” and “what things mean” are really based on stuff from when they were 30 or 40. Now put him in charge of Russia, and add in a paranoid KGB agent’s mindset.
I absolutely think Putin is mentally flexible when it comes to the politics between him and the oligarchs that run the country. He does that dance every day and has for decades. I think, however, that decades in a bubble, in a very information controlled country, and the mindset of his youth are absolutely driving this mess. And the only way out is getting the one group he HAS to listen to to get him to stop — or decide to replace him.
i do note the Russian internal PR is very hamfisted, even for Russia, and that he was clearly thrown off stride and unable to adapt to Biden openly leaking what Russia was about to do right before they did it. I also note internal Russian polling doesn’t seem to be too heavily behind this war either.
For all the bang for his buck he got off troll farms in 2016, I’m wondering how much he’s slowed down. That PR really was BAD, even by Russian standards. It felt phoned in, which is real weird given their domestic situation.
What’s a real worry is if he buys into the PR about his own military. Against their own second-rate Cold War leftovers they’re doing fine. I worry that he thinks that means he can steamroll NATO’s first line stuff, which would turn his army into a bloody smear across the ground, right after turning his air force into scrap.
Because at that point, he’s got backing down or nuclear weapons. And I don’t see him backing off after a defeat.Report
https://thetriad.thebulwark.com/p/lets-blow-up-some-russian-yachts?utm_source=urlReport
Ugh, so he’s gone and done it. Now it’s up to the Europeans.Report
1. The U.S. should seize the property of every Russian oligarichal holding in the United States. Seize every money laundering luxury condo that they own;
2. So far there is an interesting split between Congressional Republicans (largely anti-Russian) and the propagandists in the right-wing media and Trump (Putin loving stains). One or the other will break.Report
R’s in congress will break. Most of them at least. Once they start getting to many interviews on Fox and the propagandists really get going most will crack like an egg. Romney and some others will hold on decently.Report
It is interesting that this appears to be the last island of traditional Republican force left.
But if I had to bet, I would put money on the Tucker Carlson wing prevailing.Report
You and Chip are probably correct. Gaetz has already proven himself a dick on this issue by trolling the President of Taiwan.
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/aa97bb0b3348f3874cc9704c8966aeb065f164b40044f3300094cc5a129b3a85.png?fbclid=IwAR0KTNYt5PE-LkSsCWN8EX91yOLGlJRW9rwobPrnpgZyFke01FHTB7EY5zgReport
Is this something that the executive could direct as part of his law enforcement powers or is this something that needs to go through Congress and the Senate first?Report
There is an affordable housing crisis and a lot of people want homes but are priced out of them. It is a win-win.Report
This sounds like something that Biden could do right now and help a lot of people.
Hell, just put them on the open market (to US buyers only, of course) and give the proceeds to help pay off student loans!Report
I really need your up to date assessment of US intell at this point.Report
You misunderstand the right re Putin. I’m not saying that to start an argument or defend anything, because this is just sad news and I don’t feel like another round of the same argument. There will be anger on the right against Biden for his perceived accidental okaying of this, and there will be natural reluctance to get involved, but I expect the Republicans to be on-board with any response Biden makes up to and including US support for the, oh God, rebels. Anything but US soldiers fighting. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Biden get more support from the Republicans than the Democrats, although if he shifts with his party doves, the Republicans may end up more hawkish.Report
We don’t “misunderstand”.
We can read English, and read the words of Congressional Republicans.
We can also read the words of Tucker Carlson, Laura Ingraham, and various Republican commenters and pundits.
Which side will prevail? Like I said, I don’t know, and I don’t think anyone really does.
But no one is misunderstanding anything.Report
If anyone is interested in a Republican’s perception of the likely Republican thinking, I gave it.Report
And Tucker Carlson answered you.
Seriously, why do you think your views should be considered more representative of Republican thinking than his, or Lauren Boebert or Margerie Taylor Greene or Paul Gosar or Donald Trump or Greg Abbot or Ron DeSantis, the guys at the Daily Wire or Federalist or National Review?Report
He is here, and talks to us, and the Tuck doesn’t?Report
Being on OT doesn’t make him representative of Republicans.
Like I said, with the views he holds, he couldn’t be elected to any office as a Republican.
He is one, just not a representative one.Report
He’s already dangerously tainted by even talking to liberals.
It’s like telling us “Most Republicans/conservatives aren’t like Greg Abbot” and then having no answer to why Greg Abbot keeps winning popularity contests that only allow Republicans and conservatives to vote.
At some point, you have to realize that you don’t speak for your party anymore, if you ever did. And if you stay, and keep defending them — then really you don’t have that much of a problem with Greg Abbott, do you?Report
Given that Pinky is openly and proudly anti-abortion, no I don’t think he has any problems with Abbot.Report
No idea what you think that means, but He has not okayed anything Russia has done in Ukraine since he got into office.
well if the follow Mr. Trump’s lead, and they generally do, then they will find a way to make this Biden’s fault. the Mississippi delegation (which only has one democrat) has called Biden too timid and hesitant, even as we sent tens of billions in arms to Ukraine, ratchet up sanctions and repositioned troops. SO far, the only statements of full throated support come from Democrats.Report
Welp.
Report
China ain’t gonna (can’t) invade Taiwan from the air.Report
I’m not sure they need to.Report
https://twitter.com/MattNegrin/status/1496861386030333959?s=20&t=RPYfIPX5GTSQpd1Fo-Gdlw
New last minute guest at CPACReport
Is this real or a joke?Report
No, a joke is “Biden Tasks Greg Abbot With Taking Down Russian Electrical Grid”.Report
Now that is a good joke.Report
There are more countries with hackers than merely Russia.
Report
Everyone’s cyber liability premiums are about to go through the roof, as if that guy at Colonial Pipeline trying to see some boobs hadn’t already made things bad enough.Report
Can someone give me an elevator speech on why all this is happening now? I’m woefully ignorant on this.Report
Russia invaded Ukraine last night, with the aid of Belarus, which is basically a Russian puppet state. They’re driving hard, and clearly looked like they wanted to take the capital outright and airlift troops, and pacify the country later.
Why they’re doing this? Explanations range from Putin is a paranoid old KGB type who wants buffer states between him and, well, the “West” which he still thinks of as an enemy to Putin is desperate to distract his own populace from their economic woes, which COVID has made far worse, etc.
Mostly, he’s just trying to finish the job from 2014 when he tried this the first time, and Ukraine managed to stall him.
The West, by and large, is unwilling to risk WW3 for a non-NATO country (which wasn’t allowed IN NATO mostly to avoid triggering Putin to invade), but seems to be coalescing around responding by explaining to a paranoid old KGB type that he might love tanks and polonium tea, but it’s money that makes the world go ’round, and slapping a level of sanctions that make the last round like a love tap. (And the last round made him try to buy a US President and spend four years trying to get them lifted, and created a hatred for Obama and Clinton that is akin to a blood rage).
In fact the UK is pushing to basically cut Russia off from SWIFT entirely, basically isolating them from the world banking system. I believe Biden is mulling starting to seize oligarch assets in addition to the already stated sanction threats. The Russian market and ruble are in free-fall and nobody’s done anything yet.
A cynical man might look at the sanctions being discussed by the West, and asset seizures, and note that while it does hurt the Russian economy badly, it very much hurts the dozen or so oligarchs that Putin more or less needs to keep on his side (or at least splintered), and who have access to the same sorts of means and methods Putin cheerfully uses to cause ‘accidents’ to people he dislikes.
I don’t think any NATO country would be terribly unhappy if Putin were to accidentally fall out a window and someone less invasion happy took over. Why, sanctions might even be dropped to celebrate the new regime.Report
I doubt the SWIFT thing will happen, as Putin’s obvious response is to say, “Not going to pay for all that natural gas? Spigot turns off now!” It’s easy for the UK to make that demand, less than 5% of the UK’s gas comes from Russia. Germany is like 40%, Austria around 65%. Stored gas mitigates that somewhat, but eventually the EU is looking at a recession/depression sized problem.Report
They can and likely will simply switch suppliers and pay the premium. Pipelines are cheaper, but LNG can and is transported in a number of ways.
It’s certainly one reason Germany is dragging it’s feet on SWIFT, but bluntly — if this doesn’t cause them to realize that depending on Russia to keep the power on is a bad idea, they might as well ask if Putin’s new Russian Empire needs a German puppet state.Report
The German’s are one to watch, because naked economic interest calls for a slow roll from them. But this is a new government and it can become a matter of honour/German blood guilt. And I wouldn’t underestimate what a German would do to reclaim another piece of their national soul.Report
Yeah that’s the twenty four hundred dollar question. If Europe turns the spigots off, gets the recession, grits their teeth and bears it then a clock starts ticking in Russia and when their stash of cash runs out Russia’s economy goes the way of Iran. But Putin is betting that the European voting public won’t be willing to weather that kind of pain (and their politicians won’t want to risk their jobs asking them to) over Ukraine.Report
The Russian market has already crawled up inside itself and gone catatonic.
Much more of that, especially if Western countries decide to go after oligarch money and assets, and Putin is going to get pressure from people he really does need to listen to.
Those guys didn’t steal and murder and blackmail for decades to have all their stolen money and power taken from them so Putin can indulge in his paranoia.Report
Possibly, possibly, but the majority of their wealth is, of course, parked within Russia and thus can’t be appropriated. I do think the west should go after oligarch money where they can get it but I don’t maintain the illusion that doing so will kill the oligarchs. But Russia isn’t self sufficient and when their foreign reserves run out a lot of stuff will go wildly bad for them. But they have a lot of foreign reserves. So it requires broad reaching and strong sanctions; and sticking with them for quite some time. It’s anyone’s guess if such things are possible.
Also if Ukraine folds entirely and their government is wiped out, then what?Report
“Possibly, possibly, but the majority of their wealth is, of course, parked within Russia and thus canât be appropriated”
Well, the cratering Russian market helps with that.
And then there’s something of a blunt truth: They also didn’t steal all that money to be stuck spending in just in Russia. Cut them off from their foreign wealth, with the value of the ruble in free fall and the Russian market cratering?
How will they afford the finer things? Everything will have to be purchased with rubles via the black market, and they’d be unable to really leave Russia and spend money elsewhere depending on exactly how bloodthirsty the sanctions are.Report
Yup, and again it filters back to a question of political and economic will. All those things those oligarchs purchase advantage non-Russian interests and economies. When Putin starts doing his whole song and dance of “c’mon, it’s over, why cling to sanctions…” a lot of people will be tempted.Report
I suspect Germany is hoping Ukraine turns into a quagmire.
It might. They’re certainly loaded for bear, and they were gifted quite a supply of things that Iraqi and Afghanistan guerillas would have traded their children for.
Not to mention sharing a nice big border with a bunch of countries that will HAPPILY send them all sorts of party presents to keep fighting even after a surrender.
I don’t see sanctions easing up until Putin is dead, TBH. NATO would much prefer not to court nuclear war, but NATO also doesn’t have much of a choice except collective response if he moves on a NATO country.
NATO doesn’t fear the Russian military for a hot second. They fear it’s nukes.Report
Mmmhmmm the hawks are hawky I agree and for Ukraine- it turning into a bloody quagmire is roughly their best case scenario. The only area I differ is we’re ignoring public resolve. To beat Russia the sanctions would have to be ferocious and consistent. It remains to be seen if the Germans or the west writ large is willing to back those sanctions up or if the politicians are willing to take the risk of imposing them.
Best case scenario for the west: Bloody grind in Ukraine, consistent ferocious sanctions despite savage recession and inflation.
Best case for Russia: Quick decapitation of Ukraine, occupation of the bits they want, then when Russia offers “drop the sanctions and we’ll pretend nothing happened” the Europeans break ranks and the sanctions collapse (either before or after a bloodbath election).
Worst Case: Putin loses his fishing mind, dukes it out with NATO and lets fly some fishin nukes.Report
I believe his original “We’re coming in as peacekeepers to the territories we already really control” is his fallback if he can’t manage that decapitation.
He’ll pull back, declare victory, claim he’s destroyed the Ukrainian nuclear program out of Chernobyl (probably cracking the dome out of pure spite and to give NATO a huge problem to deal with), and pull back to reinforce the territory he already really had.
He’ll declare victory to his populace, and then start screaming about the unfair West and sanctions and blame Russian suffering on them.
And again, and I mean this literally: Russia will NEVER economically recover from this mess. The benefits of taking Ukraine, even absent sanctions will simply never be worth what he paid.Report
Yeah, this is a massive short term play with the medium and long term looking terrible for putin and russia. Lots of people in western europe are fine with autocratic sob in russia as long as things go smooth enough. Things get rocky and there is a lot of fear that won’t go away for a very long time. Putin knows he can win the short term but geez after that….Report
He has spent most of his adult life bullying to this very moment. He won’t stop unless he is stopped.Report
In the long term he’s dead, of course. He ain’t a young man.Report
He’s 69 (teenage boys may now chuckle). I’m betting he feels young and believes he will be in power for another decade or two. Not like the old soviet leaders had a thing for youth.Report
Oh agreed. Ukrainian territory is, if anything, an economic drag to acquire. The more of it he takes the more people he’s responsible for providing for and the more infrastructure he has to build. It’s not exactly gold/oil rich territory*- mostly it’s just defunct old industrial stuff.
He definitely is hoping he can go in, go out and then present a fait accompli. At the heart of this mess is a single question: how much of a fight can Ukraine put up and how much economic pain can Europeans accept.
*Though they have amazing soil.Report
Media just announced that SWIFT is happening. Supposedly we got good at this dealing with the Iranians.
https://www.cnn.com/2022/02/26/politics/biden-ukraine-russia-swift/index.htmlReport
Select banks will be blocked. Everything I have read suggests that the gas and oil payments will go through without any problems.
The German government has announced crash construction of two LNG terminals. Everyone is asking if that means they’re going to ignore the EU rules against state subsidies on energy infrastructure.Report
Thank you! Very helpful.Report
Wondering at this moment what the real capabilities on both sides on the cyber-front are.
Like, we’re hinting that maybe we could shut down big systems in Russia… and I’m wondering if we could, why we wouldn’t… and if the wouldn’t has to do with – let’s say – trading power in NYC for power in Moscow.
Maybe Mr. Moline could comment on where he thinks the Cyber-Mutually-Assured-Destruction lines are drawn?Report
One of the artists I follow on Instagram turns out to be Ukrainian and posted a heartbreaking message, personalizing the abstract.
https://www.instagram.com/alksko/Report
We just got our Heightened Cybersecurity Posture notification at work.Report
https://www.politico.com/news/2022/02/24/russia-sanctions-ukraine-invasion-00011431Report
from the same story:
Report
“Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania”
This is Schroedinger’s NATO.
On the one hand, it is plausible that Putin would not consider expanding the conflict to the Baltics because of NATO… on the other hand, if he wanted to break NATO he’d force Article V existential crisis over Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania.
* Could add Romania to that mix… but honestly I feel people would throw Romania under the bus.
** Poland, by contrast, would validate NATO.Report
What is a bit a baffling is how putin has gamed out the Euro response. The Sweeds and Finns met with NATO today. This may push them very far towards trying to join NATO or to at least strong security guarantees. Certainly western euro countries and the Baltic’s are going to be pouring money into their military’s. vlady gets a bit of …..how do you say living space in russian…but this is most likely to lead to them surrounded by increasingly strong foes including some that already hate the russians and have well proven fear of them. Not going to happen today or in week, but in a month or two russian “strategic” thinkers may be watching every country that borders buying MANPADS, ATGM’s, tanks and every other damn thing. Do russians really want to watch the delivery of a few thousand TOW’s to Helsinki? How much do the German’s spend on their mil after today? A few hundred new Leopards would stack burned out russian armor and dead russians in heaping mounds if they were tested.
One possibility of course is putin knows this but is fine with this and will use the strength of enemies to help keep people afraid and keep his lock on power. It’s also possible others in the kremlin might get that is not good for russia.Report
Given the rhetoric and mocking sarcasm he’s used up to this point I think this is your lede.Report
Brave Russians protested the war in Saint Petersburg. Ireland has waved visa requirements for Ukrainians. There is a long stream of people heading to western Ukraine from Kiev.Report
From the Number 3 in Republican House Leadership Elise Stefanik:
That’s not support of the President. Not by along shot.Report
In the interest of being the change I would like to see in the world, I will begin and end my commentary on this situation with an acknowledgement that I have at best slightly above average understanding of the issue and thus have no special insight to offer.Report
Very interesting piece on how this may have been avoided, written 3 days before the invasion too:
https://nonzero.substack.com/p/why-biden-didnt-negotiate-seriously
I cop that it confirms my priors about the Blob but I do think it’s a solid counter point to the idea that Putin is just too crazy/evil to be negotiated with.Report
It captures my (dated) experience with the foreign policy establishment pretty well.
My one caveat is that we’re never really clear on the communications front/back-channels that happened until we get the correspondence 50+ yrs later.
And even more challenging, in a ‘path dependent way’ the hardest thing I studied in foreign policy was that the number of options at any given moment were often constrained by years of prior actions. Which is why the typical Political Activist Congressional Local Organizer type of model for Twitter or Commentors is so wide the mark on foreign affairs.
e.g. the best way to make NATO powerful is to make it small and the massive implied threat totally credible… expanding NATO weakens NATO at it’s very core… it also constrains us from conventional options because we’ve muddled NATO’s existential threat into areas where it isn’t existential. Biden has fewer options owing to NATO expansion.Report
Well yea. Mutual defense means something when it’s us plus a handful of other decently capable powers like the UK, France, Germany, Italy, and Turkey. And sure folding in the little mini-countries already geographically surrounded by those bigger ones isn’t hurting anyone.
But now we really have to think about whether we’d risk nuclear armageddon over Latvia… which is 25% f—ing Russian! Setting up such an obvious bluff could itself he seem as a provocation and increase the risk of war.Report
There’s more to mutual defense than nuclear weapons, right?
A strong alliance also incudes the willingness to use economic and political pressure, and having a larger group in the alliance gives those tools greater strength.Report
Other things are all well and good but mutual defense means you’re willing to send your own people to their deaths over an attack on the other. You never do it lightly, and in a democracy, it’s something the people get a say in, at least eventually.Report
No, that’s not what NATO is for. There are other organizations for that sort of collective action on matters that don’t pertain to mutual defense of NATO members.
That’s been a core ‘debate’ for decades as NATO has expanded it’s idea of NATO outside of it’s charter. That’s been the Neo-Con/Liberal Interventionist position on NATO and the counter argument was that doing so puts NATO in a weaker position with less room for member Nations to act outside of NATO.Report
Not to mention the tendency to take lesser action off the table since some of the members probably can’t realistically be defended by conventional means.Report
The big hurdle here is the kind of EU vs NATO obligations that appear to be giving Germany fits.
NATO issued a long communiquĂŠ last year describing how they would go forward. The only place economic sanctions are mentioned is when they encourage all nations, NATO members or not, to enforce the UN sanctions against North Korea. Political, conventional military, and nuclear deterrents are mentioned again and again. Economic weapons, not at all.
I suspect that there were several of the EU members who balked on allowing economic weapons. Suppose NATO wanted to order its members to not buy Russian natural gas, nor allow it to transit NATO countries. Germany’s in a tough spot: that action would almost certainly violate treaty obligations they have to Austria, a non-NATO EU member. The US (and now the UK) may have to face up to the reality that many/most of its members believe economic responses are not in NATO’s purview.Report
Both of his premises have been torpedoed by the invasion itself. Going for all of Ukraine tell you that this wasn’t really about NATO, it was about rebuilding the Russian Empire, and the extent NATO is involved its because the Article 5 guarantee and implied nuclear shield is a barrier to those ambitions.
Second, buy making a massive invasion of the entire Ukrainian state, Putin is doing something most observers discounted because it was kinda crazy. And Hitler wasn’t a gibbering madman either, he was pretty rational within his own skewed framework (sometimes more rational than his own generals/subordinates).Report
Russia meeting stiffer resistance than anticipated:
https://www.economist.com/europe/2022/02/25/kyiv-continues-to-defy-an-intensifying-russian-assault
Good for the Ukranians. If they can hold out long enough to have a seat at the settlement table without capitulation they’ll have earned their independence. Follow the path of Finland. We should send them as much weapons and aid as we can.
Hard to know what is real vs. wishful thinking but Russian tactics, tech, and capabilities getting a lot of criticism as behind the times.Report
What terrifies me is that the Russians will pick one of the smaller cities and turn their artillery loose on it for 24 hours. If they’re even half as good as the Pentagon and NATO have been telling us for years, that should be long enough to get to the “just bouncing rubble” state.
Putin may be crazy enough to do it rather than take the casualties of sending tanks and/or infantry in.Report
Mod help requested. I have sinned by editing a omment with a link. Please and thank you.Report
Kharkiv and Kiev lasted another night. Ukraine and Russia agreeing to talks at the Belarussian border.
Good point I saw was that it took the US about 2 weeks to defeat Baathist Iraq so any celebration is way premature. Still impressive showing from Ukraine so far, certainly better than I would have thought. Way too soon for hard predictions but this could turn out to be quite the blunder by Putin especially if the long term result is re-militarizing the European continent.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/02/27/russia-ukraine-war-kyiv-news/Report