The Paradox of Democratic Governance

Senator Charles Schumer escorts President Joe Biden through the US Capital. Photo by The White House, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons

The Democratic Party is experiencing a wide variety of negative emotions as Joe Biden’s midterm election year begins. Many Democrats are disappointed about the president’s flagging agenda and dismayed at the party’s electoral prospects in 2022. They are also lost as to how to solve the party’s current woes. Democrats view the Republican Party as a menace and worry that there is nothing they can do against its electoral juggernaut. As Ed Kilgore wrote back in August, “In 2024, of course, Democrats will either retain or lose the presidency. If they win then, 2026 is likely to be another bad year for them in House races. But if they lose, the trifecta is gone for sure until 2028.”

Several reasons have been given for this reversal in Democratic fortunes. Republicans have structural advantages based on their mostly rural power base and extensive efforts at gerrymandering over the past decade. Emily Badger argued in 2016 that “In a House of Representatives that structurally disadvantages Democrats because of their tight urban clustering, rural voters helped Republicans hold their cushion. In the Senate, the least populous states are now more overrepresented than ever before. And the growing unity of rural Americans as a voting bloc has converted the rural bias in national politics into a potent Republican advantage.”

Republicans are seen as more ruthless, more willing to bend electoral law and the practices of state houses in order to achieve their political ends. But there are also structural factors in our current day and age that make Republican governance simply easier. Democrats must be aware of these circumstances if they hope to both take power and successfully keep it.

Democrats have many factors supporting their agenda and their approach to governance. Their policy proposals are wildly popular. They are mostly determined to emphasize the popular aspects of their platform and avoid controversial wedge issues. The enactment of Democratic programs improves the lives of ordinary Americans. They create tangible benefits such as health care, Social Security checks, or protections from employers. Democratic leaders believe that this approach will be effective at securing an electoral majority because the vast majority of Americans have modest amounts of income and would appreciate more financial help. According to this theory, these voters will remember the benefits that Democrats accrued to them on election day and will vote accordingly.

Democrats contrast their governing approach to Republicans. The GOP does not have an economic program that is popular with a majority of Americans. These men and women do not support the gutting of environmental regulations or the cutting of taxes for the wealthy. Instead, Republicans have to turn entirely towards cultural issues in their campaigns. They have to use racist dog whistles, demonize immigrants, and otherwise scare their constituents in order to secure their votes.

In most cases, these cultural appeals will not provide anything of tangible benefit to Republican constituents. Restricting legal or even illegal immigration will most likely not increase their incomes. Putting limits on the use of food stamps will not affect a person who does not receive food stamps. In addition, racist attacks against a particular ethnic group may turn away that ethnic group from the party. It seems like an insane strategy to many Democrats, one that should not be as successful as it has been over the past century or more.

But the Republican governance strategy is tailor-made to our current news cycle. Republicans are much better at fighting daily battles and dominating news coverage as a result. Their media apparatus is finely tuned at picking some leftist outrage that their talk show hosts can discuss incessantly. Each battle accomplishes the goal of stoking viewer outrage and working to drive voter turnout among the party’s base.

What’s more, the culture war battle has no winners or losers. Republican voters do not care that talk show hosts were unable to return Dr. Seuss books to shelves or change rules regarding women athletics in schools. Their listener base is entertained, electorally engaged, and more willing to visit and patronize sponsors. The controversy-of-the-day model from the Donald Trump presidency is enormously effective at dominating the media landscape and gaining votes even after Republicans are out of power.

Democrats, on the other hand, want to avoid these cultural touchstones. The nature of their coalition requires them to lean away from cultural issues and towards large economic programs, the much-vaunted “bread and butter issues” that Democratic consultants constantly talk about. These campaigns are not as effective in our current media and political environment. Democrats can take power and pass a popular agenda, but there is inevitably a limit they will reach where their most conservative members will go no further. Once that limit is reached, what is the Democratic appeal? Joe Biden passed one of the largest stimulus programs in American history less than a year ago and has a 42% approval rating to show for his efforts. How do Democrats galvanize their voters and offer those voters consequential victories? Anti-Republicanism does not work as a motivator for people who elect Democrats to provide tangible benefits to their lives.

Furthermore, Democrats are naive about the power of cultural appeals to wide swaths of the electorate. They see one basic portrait of Republican cultural governance in their caricature of the typical Trump voter. This concept leads them to dismiss the power of cultural arguments. But in reality, Republicans use a wide variety of cultural appeals to add many groups into their big tent of grievance. They constantly harped to Latino voters on the socialist nature of Democratic officeholders. Republicans have also prioritized appeals to patriotism and American exceptionalism. These cultural acts do not have the racist, sexist, and imperialist connotations that they do to the Democratic activist base. They have helped Republicans solve their own governance paradox: winning an ever-increasing non-white share of the vote with arguable bigots in charge of the party.

The answer is not for Democrats to go all-in on culture war issues. Only a small fraction of their base wants to wage an active culture war or pass laws like the “critical race theory” bans that Republicans have been working on over the past year. Instead, Democrats need to formulate a strategy outside of government spending through massive legislative bills. They must craft a strategy for executive orders, judicial appointments, and other federal actions that a Democratic administration can take in the era of Joe Manchin and Kyrstin Sinema. These actions can be taken daily to show the strength of Democrats and make the argument that they are strong even with a stalled legislative agenda. A new message can be essential at reducing midterm losses and achieving the ultimate goal of keeping Joe Biden in the White House another four years.