With a few exceptions, presidential candidates "pick" VPs the way most presidents "pick" Supreme Court justices...the people that actually make those calls make sure the candidate picks the "right" person gets the nod after carefully crafted deliberations so the candidate thinks they made the decision.
I wrote about that very thing on this very site at that very time here:. Of course, lot has happened between now and then so fun to see what I was wrong and right about looking back.
This is a good point Saul, which I also raised. Trump isn't gaining any voters here and every time he feeds his base he turns off everyone else. Biden's numbers have room to slosh around as folks make up their mind about him, but Trump isn't picking them up, its Biden or don't vote, stay home, split ticket, and so on. The "chronically online", which I admittedly am is one, are going to be predictable for the next few weeks. Just look at the calendar; Panic! for a few days, Monday will be Supreme Court reaction day, then holiday, then the chattering classes will lose their minds over the Trump sentencing the following week. Reaction to RNC. Reaction to DNC. Up and down it will go and most of it will be pretty predictable just based on what is already preordained to happen.
Biden has 130 days and a lot of money and campaigning to do yet, and is blessed with running against Trump who can self-destruct at any moment. I'm curious bordering on confident that Trump's team will take the wrong lessons from this, think election is over, and not take the optics win of this debate and put in the infrastructure for winning an election - which there are lots of reporting they aren't doing. All the money is going to legal defense. If Biden does another bad performance that is one thing, but if this is a one-off and he bounces back it is easy to see a scenario where the very online and Team Trump get surprised with perfectly viable Joe Biden in November because they think its over right now and coast when they need to get busy. We will see.
Its changed, but election isn't over. This will get run but the calendar will help Biden a bit here. We have the holiday week, then Trump's sentencing the following week, then we are into convention season. Biden gives a credible performance there and elapsed time, plus the (by his standards) disciplined Trump from last night isn't going to sustain for 130-whatever days. Lot can still happen, but like I said in the piece, just being "non-Trump" isn't going to work with those video clips now out there. Biden, if able, has to show something more for marginally engaged voters who saying "destroy the republic" doesn't register with.
Anecdotal, but as far as human beings being "plagiarism machines":
One of my oldest friends I've known since 6th grade currently lives in Costa Rica, and teaches English there to Spanish school students. The biggest issue he has right now down there is all the students using ChatGPT and other assorted AI's to try and cheat like they understand the language when they don't.
Maybe, probably, because my professional background was in transportation and logistics, I find this whole thing fascinating. The nomenclature of "colony/colonization" and "self-sufficient" tends to lead people down particular lines of thought. I think (and brought up) how some folks who actually seriously examine these things keep pointing out a moon or Mars facility would first and foremost have to be - in essence - a factory, making food, air, and water, or more specifically making/harvesting things like hydrogen and oxygen to do so. Most folks and a lot of SciFi envision a Moon/Mars colony being Jamestown in space, or an all-inclusive resort, but neither of those really fit the requirement. So envisioning a mostly automated factory is the skinny end of the population scale. One the other is something Michael talked about in the episode, trying to do space travel with less heavy ground support. It takes enormous amounts of manpower and support to send 2-3 astronauts back and forth to low earth orbit. It took a yet-to-be repeated nationalized effort to put 12 people on the moon for a few days at a time. If by "colony" you mean folks going back and forth those ratios of ground support to mission crew is going to be massive. So the other end of that population spectrum - fully self suffiecient on Mars/Moon to ground support their own ops and return trips, is probably going to be a much larger population than anyone realizes. But again, logisitcs guy thoughts, having even hundreds of folks up there is daunting. To use your Antartica example, look at what it takes for a facility like McMurdo that goes from 200ish in the winter to 1200ish in the summer season...now move it 238K miles further out for the moon, plus space...still seems generations away, whatever Elon might say.
3rd cousin is legal where I come from, Philip, so a high compliment...
I think I have several years of proven stuff/work/effort beyond just judging such folks, and dealing with deeper issues that spawned this hot mess, that speaks for itself. Landing a 1K word piece on a specific point is hardly comprehensive. These folks, and some media commentators who understand Trump more as a business model than anything else, see Trump as an excuse whereas I am of the number that see Trump as a revealing event to what was, is, and will be for some time to come.
FWIW, The Bikeriders is about the Outlaws MC origins in Chicago, is about going from a group to a club to an organized crime organization, and the title is from the famous pictorial book of the same name the film is based on.
From dog catcher to president, whatever office I'm voting on, I go with the person I think is most capable and qualified to fill the position. If there is no one on my ballot that is capable for the position, I do not.
Color me skeptical that two of the highest-profile lawyers at the time where doing in-person skull work on case background and personally greasing palms with checks with their names on them...
The local muni near my NC house that I played a lot on, when I played, was locally known as "The Goat Farm", right down to the merchandise, since it paled in comparsion to the generally area that included Pinehurst being only a 30 minute drive away. Become something of a pride thing to play and play well there. Like a lot of courses it didn't survive, and is now a city park where you can still tell the holes and fairways where among the soccer fields and walking trails. And frankly, ten years of being public has improved the grass lol.
If the Israelis really did clip Mohammed Reza Zahedi, as is being reported, that's the biggest IRGC head since Soleimani to roll. Big, big deal...he's been the Iranian point man in Syrian for a while.
On “Fourth of July Group Activity: Civics Quiz”
I'm ashamed at my 9 correct out of 10.
On “Bring Back Signet Rings”
As I good-naturedly jokes with the author when he submitted this, you can tell who has never had a job in an industrial environment...
On “Open Mic for the week of 7/1/2024”
That isn't even the worst opinion headline in the NY Times this morning....guess the author without looking
"France’s Far Right Is Bad. But Not as Hypocritical as MAGA."
On “Open Mic for the week of 6/24/2024”
With a few exceptions, presidential candidates "pick" VPs the way most presidents "pick" Supreme Court justices...the people that actually make those calls make sure the candidate picks the "right" person gets the nod after carefully crafted deliberations so the candidate thinks they made the decision.
"
I wrote about that very thing on this very site at that very time here:. Of course, lot has happened between now and then so fun to see what I was wrong and right about looking back.
On “About Last Night: Debate Debacle Edition”
By the time you get accurate polling numbers it'll be Trump sentencing news cycle time and you'll have to do them all over again anyway
"
This is a good point Saul, which I also raised. Trump isn't gaining any voters here and every time he feeds his base he turns off everyone else. Biden's numbers have room to slosh around as folks make up their mind about him, but Trump isn't picking them up, its Biden or don't vote, stay home, split ticket, and so on. The "chronically online", which I admittedly am is one, are going to be predictable for the next few weeks. Just look at the calendar; Panic! for a few days, Monday will be Supreme Court reaction day, then holiday, then the chattering classes will lose their minds over the Trump sentencing the following week. Reaction to RNC. Reaction to DNC. Up and down it will go and most of it will be pretty predictable just based on what is already preordained to happen.
Biden has 130 days and a lot of money and campaigning to do yet, and is blessed with running against Trump who can self-destruct at any moment. I'm curious bordering on confident that Trump's team will take the wrong lessons from this, think election is over, and not take the optics win of this debate and put in the infrastructure for winning an election - which there are lots of reporting they aren't doing. All the money is going to legal defense. If Biden does another bad performance that is one thing, but if this is a one-off and he bounces back it is easy to see a scenario where the very online and Team Trump get surprised with perfectly viable Joe Biden in November because they think its over right now and coast when they need to get busy. We will see.
"
From the ed board that brought you "We endorse these two candidates, just pick one amongst yourselves..."
"
He's not universally liked in the party, and it would split the coalition Biden has.
"
Its changed, but election isn't over. This will get run but the calendar will help Biden a bit here. We have the holiday week, then Trump's sentencing the following week, then we are into convention season. Biden gives a credible performance there and elapsed time, plus the (by his standards) disciplined Trump from last night isn't going to sustain for 130-whatever days. Lot can still happen, but like I said in the piece, just being "non-Trump" isn't going to work with those video clips now out there. Biden, if able, has to show something more for marginally engaged voters who saying "destroy the republic" doesn't register with.
On “Throughput: The Kids Are All Right but the Surgeon General Isn’t Edition”
Anecdotal, but as far as human beings being "plagiarism machines":
One of my oldest friends I've known since 6th grade currently lives in Costa Rica, and teaches English there to Spanish school students. The biggest issue he has right now down there is all the students using ChatGPT and other assorted AI's to try and cheat like they understand the language when they don't.
On “Ordinary World: Juneteenth Edition”
Maybe, probably, because my professional background was in transportation and logistics, I find this whole thing fascinating. The nomenclature of "colony/colonization" and "self-sufficient" tends to lead people down particular lines of thought. I think (and brought up) how some folks who actually seriously examine these things keep pointing out a moon or Mars facility would first and foremost have to be - in essence - a factory, making food, air, and water, or more specifically making/harvesting things like hydrogen and oxygen to do so. Most folks and a lot of SciFi envision a Moon/Mars colony being Jamestown in space, or an all-inclusive resort, but neither of those really fit the requirement. So envisioning a mostly automated factory is the skinny end of the population scale. One the other is something Michael talked about in the episode, trying to do space travel with less heavy ground support. It takes enormous amounts of manpower and support to send 2-3 astronauts back and forth to low earth orbit. It took a yet-to-be repeated nationalized effort to put 12 people on the moon for a few days at a time. If by "colony" you mean folks going back and forth those ratios of ground support to mission crew is going to be massive. So the other end of that population spectrum - fully self suffiecient on Mars/Moon to ground support their own ops and return trips, is probably going to be a much larger population than anyone realizes. But again, logisitcs guy thoughts, having even hundreds of folks up there is daunting. To use your Antartica example, look at what it takes for a facility like McMurdo that goes from 200ish in the winter to 1200ish in the summer season...now move it 238K miles further out for the moon, plus space...still seems generations away, whatever Elon might say.
On “Misinformation, Redefined Beyond All Meaning”
Heard
On “Judging Trump’s Greek Chorus After His Verdict”
3rd cousin is legal where I come from, Philip, so a high compliment...
I think I have several years of proven stuff/work/effort beyond just judging such folks, and dealing with deeper issues that spawned this hot mess, that speaks for itself. Landing a 1K word piece on a specific point is hardly comprehensive. These folks, and some media commentators who understand Trump more as a business model than anything else, see Trump as an excuse whereas I am of the number that see Trump as a revealing event to what was, is, and will be for some time to come.
On “97th Oscars Projections: The Post-Cannes Outlook For The Best Picture Race”
FWIW, The Bikeriders is about the Outlaws MC origins in Chicago, is about going from a group to a club to an organized crime organization, and the title is from the famous pictorial book of the same name the film is based on.
On “Open Mic for the week of 5/20/2024”
The pictures of the fog and weather yesterday looked like awful flying weather, FWIW
On “Trends in Social Media Commentary That Should Be Relentlessly Mocked Until They Stop”
Exceptions prove the rule, and that guy is a horrific case and its a miracle that didn't go even more bad
On “Republicans Defending Joe Biden”
I'm a simple person I reckon.
From dog catcher to president, whatever office I'm voting on, I go with the person I think is most capable and qualified to fill the position. If there is no one on my ballot that is capable for the position, I do not.
On “Ohisashiburi Desu Ne!”
Great having you back writing
On “OJ Simpson: Football Great, Murder Suspect, and Convicted Felon, Dead at 76”
Color me skeptical that two of the highest-profile lawyers at the time where doing in-person skull work on case background and personally greasing palms with checks with their names on them...
On “Open Mic for the week of 4/8/2024”
TSN post up on this topic
"
TSN post up on this topic
On “The Public Links”
The local muni near my NC house that I played a lot on, when I played, was locally known as "The Goat Farm", right down to the merchandise, since it paled in comparsion to the generally area that included Pinehurst being only a 30 minute drive away. Become something of a pride thing to play and play well there. Like a lot of courses it didn't survive, and is now a city park where you can still tell the holes and fairways where among the soccer fields and walking trails. And frankly, ten years of being public has improved the grass lol.
On “Open Mic for the week of 4/1/2024”
If the Israelis really did clip Mohammed Reza Zahedi, as is being reported, that's the biggest IRGC head since Soleimani to roll. Big, big deal...he's been the Iranian point man in Syrian for a while.
On “Sam Bankman-Fried Gets 25 Year Prison Sentence”
No parole in the federal system, worth pointing out...