Philip: What the population of the nation state thinks is probably a very different matter.
I thought that and then tried to find out what the population really thinks. Far as I can tell, they view the war as fundamental for the survival of the state of Israel.
Yes, Bibi probably views it as fundamental for his own personal political survival, but that's a different issue.
The calls for Bibi to step down shouldn't be viewed as a lack of support for the war. We had unified public support for the 911 war until we decided to expand it to Iraq.
We had a lot less at stake and had fewer dead adjusted for population. The Israeli population would support the war for the next few years.
North: Israel wildly and disproportionately reacting to rocket attacks
Every time there is a rocket attack, between hundreds and tens of thousands of civilians need to take shelter.
What is a "proportional" reaction to that. Then after we have figured out what the reaction for one rocket should be, there have been thousands or tens of thousands.
Far as I can tell, we're in "all out war" territory right there. That would be the US's reaction to tens of thousands of our civilians being terrorized thousands of times.
FAICT, the only people in Israel to oppose the war are the families of the hostages. They have to use language like "make a deal" because saying "end the war" is a non-starter.
However Hamas never had the ability to return all of the hostages and they're mostly dead.
68% of Israeli Jews don't want aid trucks sent into Gaza because it will help Hamas. The killing of the peace activists at the music concert has sent the message that peace isn't an option.
However #6, i.e. make a deal that leaves Hamas in charge and doing the occasional 10-6, is viewed as a 2nd holocaust. Options can be horrible and still much better than that.
RE: #5
I think this was the US' idea. It seems breath takingly unrealistic but whatever.
RE: #3
For Gaza, the land was taken 70+ years ago. That's what the bulk of the population wants back. However with Germany, with the benefit of hindsight, I think our efforts and re-educating them failed and they changed their minds on their own.
RE: #4
Egypt is building "temporary" housing for them in case this happens. They are already a brutal dictatorship. They put them in camps, wait a decade for Hamas to come back, and then they go in and commit genocide when that's a problem. World would live with that.
However I think we'll see a corrupt dictatorship of some flavor.
I didn't give links to show Israeli support on my other post.
"There's a consensus in Israel that the war should continue until Hamas is not a military threat on Israel and does not control the Gaza Strip as such,"
What they think is letting Hamas govern Gaza gives them the resources to commit mass murder/terror.
The interesting question is what happens after Hamas is taken down.
The ideas I've heard are...
1) Set up a corrupt dictatorship (i.e. let the PA run things).
2) Multiple Clans running things.
3) De-nazification like Germany after WW2
4) Push all of them in Egypt
5) Have Saudi Arabia rule for a while.
From the Israeli point of view any of those would arguably be better than Hamas.
Israel keeps rejecting the "the war will end and then Hamas will continue terrorism" aspect to these proposals.
If that's still the hang up, then we will probably see a Rafa attack. The "deal" was made shortly after Israel ordered 100k civilians to leave.
Israel thinks it can kill about 10k Hamas soldiers in Rafa at the cost of a few tens of thousands of civilians. So we might see the number of dead double.
From Israel's point of view that probably looks like a bargain.
DavidTC: Trying to pretend the protestors are saying ‘No Jews at all’ is just…basically hallucinating,
If they are supporting Hamas, which some of them are, then keep in mind that Hamas' charter says "no Jews at all" and they have the habit of killing or kidnaping every Jew they can.
Every time a protester chants "from the river to the sea" we have the problem that this would involve a 2nd holocaust if they were serious.
Of course the vast bulk of them aren't calling for Israel to be Jew free. They haven't seen a map, don't understand what they're saying, and are not serious.
The Palestinian narrative is the Jews were dropped on the country of Palestine by Western Powers because of guilt over the holocaust.
That Israel is literally a colony; the Jews are foreigners; this state couldn't exist without that support.
This is their grand narrative, and if we believe it then Israel doesn't have any right to exist any more than India-as-English had a right to exist. The moment the West walks away, Israel is gone.
The problems are none of that is true and that narrative causes serious problems in resolving the conflict.
LeeEsq: they have gone somewhat berserk in their response
Have they? We know of lots of dead civilians because Hamas tells us... except Hamas claims all of the dead have been civilians and most women and children.
The local media there are so in bed with Hamas that I watched a local "reporter" get very upset at the suggestion that "both sides" were committing war crimes and not just Israel.
Big picture Israel wants Hamas gone, and any war that is going to attempt that will require them to attack hospitals and other civilian areas because Hamas is there.
The local population strongly supports Hamas and their efforts. Hamas has been running the media, the charities, and the educational system for a long time. Their option is they should be able to commit mass murder without suffering from a war.
Within the (very, very large) margin of error, it is possible Israel is fighting a civilized war to the extent it can. To be fair they also might be needlessly punitive and brutal.
Given Israel has dropped a lot more bombs than they've killed people, they're probably making some effort to avoid civilian deaths.
Hamas and others have spent a lot of time and energy claiming things that fit the Left's worldview nicely. White vs Non-white. Colonialism is bad. Power is bad. Lack of power is virtue.
However these are emotional arguments. There are facts that are really jarring if we pay attention. Hamas targeting and killing civilians. Israel's "colonial backer" keeps changing.
Most damning at the moment, we have the argument that Israel is deliberately targeting civilians. They can even present various dead bodies, and they claim there are a lot more.
However, for every dead body in Gaza, Israel has dropped two bombs. That suggests the Israeli army is going out of it's way to not kill civilians.
What Rittenhouse knew at the time was he was being chased down and attacked.
The "protesters" ("rioters" is a better word) knew very little and were in lynch mob territory.
After the fact we found out that Rosenbaum was a lunatic freshly released from a mental hospital with a history of attacking boys, and the media still insisted he was an innocent protester.
We also found out Rittenhouse was a local. The media insisted he was from "out of state" but the state line was very close. He worked there and his dad's house was there.
8% of the adult population conceal carry, or 10% if we exclude California and New York. That's an overcount because it's "active licenses".
We have had protests nationwide.
The number of CC people shooting rival protesters has apparently been zero.
Rittenhouse, the poster child for the out-of-control-gun-carrier, shot an apolitical insane serial pedophile rapist who attacked him. Then the situation got worse when the protesters jumped in to back up the pedophile.
Far as I can tell the behavior of the gun carrying people in all this has been fine. It's the protesters who behave like entitled children.
On “Open Mic for the week of 5/6/2024”
Philip: What the population of the nation state thinks is probably a very different matter.
I thought that and then tried to find out what the population really thinks. Far as I can tell, they view the war as fundamental for the survival of the state of Israel.
Yes, Bibi probably views it as fundamental for his own personal political survival, but that's a different issue.
The calls for Bibi to step down shouldn't be viewed as a lack of support for the war. We had unified public support for the 911 war until we decided to expand it to Iraq.
We had a lot less at stake and had fewer dead adjusted for population. The Israeli population would support the war for the next few years.
"
North: Israel wildly and disproportionately reacting to rocket attacks
Every time there is a rocket attack, between hundreds and tens of thousands of civilians need to take shelter.
What is a "proportional" reaction to that. Then after we have figured out what the reaction for one rocket should be, there have been thousands or tens of thousands.
Far as I can tell, we're in "all out war" territory right there. That would be the US's reaction to tens of thousands of our civilians being terrorized thousands of times.
"
InMD: Do you think a second Holocaust is actually possible against a nuclear weapons state...
Me? Of course I don't. I'm not Jewish and I'm not there.
But that's where Israel's head is at and will be for years.
They currently view Hamas as an existential threat. The idea that Israel is going to give up the war because it's hard for Israel is nonsense.
Israel thinks it's in a serious war for it's survival. That basic concept need to frame what is happening and what can happen.
"
North: They also know war is hard on them.
Not as hard as a second holocaust would be.
FAICT, the only people in Israel to oppose the war are the families of the hostages. They have to use language like "make a deal" because saying "end the war" is a non-starter.
However Hamas never had the ability to return all of the hostages and they're mostly dead.
68% of Israeli Jews don't want aid trucks sent into Gaza because it will help Hamas. The killing of the peace activists at the music concert has sent the message that peace isn't an option.
"
Agreed that all options are bad.
However #6, i.e. make a deal that leaves Hamas in charge and doing the occasional 10-6, is viewed as a 2nd holocaust. Options can be horrible and still much better than that.
RE: #5
I think this was the US' idea. It seems breath takingly unrealistic but whatever.
RE: #3
For Gaza, the land was taken 70+ years ago. That's what the bulk of the population wants back. However with Germany, with the benefit of hindsight, I think our efforts and re-educating them failed and they changed their minds on their own.
RE: #4
Egypt is building "temporary" housing for them in case this happens. They are already a brutal dictatorship. They put them in camps, wait a decade for Hamas to come back, and then they go in and commit genocide when that's a problem. World would live with that.
However I think we'll see a corrupt dictatorship of some flavor.
"
I didn't give links to show Israeli support on my other post.
"There's a consensus in Israel that the war should continue until Hamas is not a military threat on Israel and does not control the Gaza Strip as such,"
https://www.npr.org/2024/03/09/1236537541/israel-five-months-hamas-war
They view the war as existential. They know the war is hard on the Palestinians but whatever.
"
What they think is letting Hamas govern Gaza gives them the resources to commit mass murder/terror.
The interesting question is what happens after Hamas is taken down.
The ideas I've heard are...
1) Set up a corrupt dictatorship (i.e. let the PA run things).
2) Multiple Clans running things.
3) De-nazification like Germany after WW2
4) Push all of them in Egypt
5) Have Saudi Arabia rule for a while.
From the Israeli point of view any of those would arguably be better than Hamas.
"
Kazzy: The implication is that Hamas has been holding up any and all ceasefire agreements.
"Ceasefire" means: a temporary suspension of fighting
Hamas has been insisting that it won't release the hostages until it gets a "permanent ceasefire" with Israel withdrawing and not coming back.
So it doesn't want a "ceasefire", it wants to end the war. It has also promised to stage 10-7 again.
In a normal conflict the losing side would surrender and not call for the winning side to surrender.
"
The Israeli public is insisting on "deal with Hamas this time". The war is popular even if Bibi himself is not.
Put a dove in there and there's a good chance we'd still see a Rafa invasion.
"
Israel keeps rejecting the "the war will end and then Hamas will continue terrorism" aspect to these proposals.
If that's still the hang up, then we will probably see a Rafa attack. The "deal" was made shortly after Israel ordered 100k civilians to leave.
Israel thinks it can kill about 10k Hamas soldiers in Rafa at the cost of a few tens of thousands of civilians. So we might see the number of dead double.
From Israel's point of view that probably looks like a bargain.
On “Campus Insurrections?”
"Got his job back"?
Pike (cop #1 and the guy in the picture) was fired and wasn't taken back.
He wasn't criminally charged. Because of the 17k death threats he received he got some workman's comp.
Lee (cop #2) wasn't on the state database for people employed there a year later. Might have quit before he could be fired but we don't know.
"
Part of it is scale. It's like the big lie, if you repeat something often enough, then it must have some truth to it.
There are hundreds of millions of Muslims who believe Israel shouldn't exist because of reasons.
Israel is a lightning rod. Anything that is wrong in the Middle East and/or any horrible act that someone wants to do gets put onto it existing.
Various other leaders have said they can't stop abusing their own citizens until Israel does whatever.
Saddam invaded a fellow Arabic country and claimed he'd give it back if the Israelis would do whatever.
OBL claimed 911 was because of Israel. The number of Jews his organization attempted to kill was zero.
"
DavidTC: Trying to pretend the protestors are saying ‘No Jews at all’ is just…basically hallucinating,
If they are supporting Hamas, which some of them are, then keep in mind that Hamas' charter says "no Jews at all" and they have the habit of killing or kidnaping every Jew they can.
Every time a protester chants "from the river to the sea" we have the problem that this would involve a 2nd holocaust if they were serious.
Of course the vast bulk of them aren't calling for Israel to be Jew free. They haven't seen a map, don't understand what they're saying, and are not serious.
"
Sounds like the Southern narrative were all the slaves were happy.
"
The Palestinian narrative is the Jews were dropped on the country of Palestine by Western Powers because of guilt over the holocaust.
That Israel is literally a colony; the Jews are foreigners; this state couldn't exist without that support.
This is their grand narrative, and if we believe it then Israel doesn't have any right to exist any more than India-as-English had a right to exist. The moment the West walks away, Israel is gone.
The problems are none of that is true and that narrative causes serious problems in resolving the conflict.
"
They're taking the claims of a genocidal terror organization as the black letter truth. "Virtue" isn't the word I'd use.
Further, there will be departments where everyone is involved in the protests and others were none are.
My expectation is the serious students with serious majors are less on the lines and the "is that really a major" departments are more.
"
LeeEsq: they have gone somewhat berserk in their response
Have they? We know of lots of dead civilians because Hamas tells us... except Hamas claims all of the dead have been civilians and most women and children.
The local media there are so in bed with Hamas that I watched a local "reporter" get very upset at the suggestion that "both sides" were committing war crimes and not just Israel.
Big picture Israel wants Hamas gone, and any war that is going to attempt that will require them to attack hospitals and other civilian areas because Hamas is there.
The local population strongly supports Hamas and their efforts. Hamas has been running the media, the charities, and the educational system for a long time. Their option is they should be able to commit mass murder without suffering from a war.
Within the (very, very large) margin of error, it is possible Israel is fighting a civilized war to the extent it can. To be fair they also might be needlessly punitive and brutal.
Given Israel has dropped a lot more bombs than they've killed people, they're probably making some effort to avoid civilian deaths.
"
Hamas and others have spent a lot of time and energy claiming things that fit the Left's worldview nicely. White vs Non-white. Colonialism is bad. Power is bad. Lack of power is virtue.
However these are emotional arguments. There are facts that are really jarring if we pay attention. Hamas targeting and killing civilians. Israel's "colonial backer" keeps changing.
Most damning at the moment, we have the argument that Israel is deliberately targeting civilians. They can even present various dead bodies, and they claim there are a lot more.
However, for every dead body in Gaza, Israel has dropped two bombs. That suggests the Israeli army is going out of it's way to not kill civilians.
"
What Rittenhouse knew at the time was he was being chased down and attacked.
The "protesters" ("rioters" is a better word) knew very little and were in lynch mob territory.
After the fact we found out that Rosenbaum was a lunatic freshly released from a mental hospital with a history of attacking boys, and the media still insisted he was an innocent protester.
We also found out Rittenhouse was a local. The media insisted he was from "out of state" but the state line was very close. He worked there and his dad's house was there.
"
My actual position is people should be able to judge for themselves whether having a gun decreases or increases their risk.
It changes your risk(s) profile by a lot.
The bottom line is people have the Right to defend themselves. They should walk away if they can, but that's not always possible or reasonable.
Where it can get really nasty is if the gov refuses to supply order then people will supply it themselves.
"
The part of the society that is armed is polite. The part of the society that isn't polite isn't armed.
If we picture Israel as being unarmed at any point in it's history, the strong expectation should be a second holocaust.
"
Pointing to how things work in the real world is absolutely an answer to a hypothetical.
Now it could be that selecting CC is also selecting for serious people while selecting protesters is also selecting for emotional nonsense.
"
And then Rosenbaum would have attacked someone else.
Why is all of the moral judgement supposed to be on Rittenhouse and not Rosenbaum?
"
8% of the adult population conceal carry, or 10% if we exclude California and New York. That's an overcount because it's "active licenses".
We have had protests nationwide.
The number of CC people shooting rival protesters has apparently been zero.
Rittenhouse, the poster child for the out-of-control-gun-carrier, shot an apolitical insane serial pedophile rapist who attacked him. Then the situation got worse when the protesters jumped in to back up the pedophile.
Far as I can tell the behavior of the gun carrying people in all this has been fine. It's the protesters who behave like entitled children.
"
Chip: You see what I’m driving at here, right?
Sure. You're trying to claim Rittenhouse should have not had a firearm.
That society would be better off if he'd been raped or killed by a random lunatic because it was during a protest.
*Comment archive for non-registered commenters assembled by email address as provided.