This is only one of several places where the OP reads to me like a missive sent from another world, another time. At best. The OP simply assumes:
1) that Republicans given power will use it to cut spending (as opposed to shifting it to different things and running up deficits, which is what experience shows actually happens), and maximize individual freedom (which let's just call a questionable proposition and leave it at that);
and
2) that Donald Trump would be a good Speaker of the House (whatever his other personal and professional merits or lack thereof, Trump's means of exercising power is direct, public and unsubtle; his temperament and interest in public policy is is not compatible with the kind of work involved in administering the Speaker's office).
Finally, it questions whether Kevin McCarthy is a conservative, which again strikes me as having a perspective so strikingly different from my own (whatever his other qualities, good or bad, liberalism is not one of them) that I'm just going to remark on how it feels like the post comes from a different world.
And thanks to the lumber shortage, this homeowner who would like to build in some shelving in his basement brewery got deterred from doing so by the high cost of the lumber needed to fulfill his plans. It would be cheaper for me to buy prefab steel shelves than to make wooden ones myself out of plywood and 2x4s. But those would be 1) not as much fun to assemble as building the shelves myself, 2) not as good looking when they were done, and 3) more dangerous to people working under them (read: me) should they fall over in the event of a wall-mounting failure (it's either pretty thin drywall on a hollow core or solid cinderblock I'd need a gunpowder-charged bolt to secure the mounting bracket although yes, if I did that, that thing would be there permanently).
Don't get me wrong, there's still tons and tons of logs out there waiting to be loaded onto barges that I see out on the river. I mean, this is Oregon. We have lots of trees. But I bet those trees are more and more valuable than ever before, judging by the price of what lumber mills turn those trees into.
I'm old enough to remember this thing called the "Tea Party." The Freedom Caucus is a direct product of it.
I think the real surprises here are that a) McCarthy is trying to put some distance between himself and Trump, and b) he's still getting ~90% of the votes of his caucus. Hell, today he got up to 214, and they're re-convening in a few hours so maybe he'll pull it off.
If I'm a Democrat, I'm prepared to make some significant concessions to Republicans I can stand if they vote for Jeffries. But I sure as hell ain't voting for McCarthy.
if I'm a non-MAGA Republican, I'm prepared to make some significant concessions to Democrats I can stand if they vote for McCarthy. But I sure as hell ain't voting for Jeffries.
If I'm a MAGA Republican, I'm winning (everyone is paying attention to me so I can make demands) with only 21 votes because i have a bigger bladder than anyone else in the pissing contest. Why should I do anything different?
CSPAN reporters suggest there's some sort of a deal being cut, and there seem to be Republicans and Democrats negotiating with one another on the floor. (Just saw Matt Gaetz talking with Debbie Wasserman-Schultz, among other odd couples.) Maybe I'll have to eat my words!
For the time being, it is a given. For very similar reasons as to both propositions. The incentives on one or both sides need to shift before there's going to be any poaching.
Clicking through to get to the rule itself, and seeing the most prominent replies to the announcement, reinforced my decision to leave twitter. Nevertheless, thanks for flagging this, it's a very good thing.
I think we're a long way from the resolution described in the OP.
The MAGA bloc has found a lever and they're leaning into it for all it's worth and these aren't people who compromise. Compromising is swampish behavior. Or something a "wet" would do, to adopt Saul's nomenclature from yesterday's discussion.
And as we all seemed to concur yesterday, the Democrats have no real incentive to help McCarthy or any other Republican go over the top, absent the tender of a price that would absolutely doom the future of any Republican who might otherwise be willing to pay it.
We aren't going to see Members pressed up against the hard wall of needing to actually get the House organized until existing spending or debt limit resolutions become imminent enough that default on the debt becomes a possibility. IIRC, we're good for about eleven more months with the recent spending package passed three weeks ago.
If you're sitting back with the popcorn for every vote, you might want to budget some extra cardio time into your daily routine.
That you would propose doing such a thing and that I would agree to it is probably explanation enough for why you and I aren't actually there in the Chamber right now.
On ballot #8, recently concluded a few minutes before posting this comment, Donald J. Trump of Florida got exactly one vote. I don't know if, and if so how many, non-members have ever actually received votes before. But I think it's fair to evaluate the potential of him winning on a subsequent ballot as something of a long shot.
I can already imagine the hue and cry when someone suggests that the party and its money back Sinema rather than an actual registered Democrat. Which some people will think is a good idea (she is the incumbent, after all, and she's a damn sight better than the Republican) and others will think is terrible (but she's not a Democrat and look we have a nominee!) and thus cause schism. Probably a schism that will heal only after Sinema is replaced by a Republican. (Unless she can somehow make nice with the progressives who have been criticizing her for so long and with such intensity that she defected out of the party altogether, and I for one will not be holding my breath waiting for that to happen.)
FTR my personal sympathies would be with the pragmatists, but the idealists have a valid point in that argument.
I guess schism could also be avoided or healed if Sinema opts to not run for re-election for some reason.
Are they really using those terms? I had to look them up and found that "wet" and "dry" trace back to factional fissures in the British Conservative Party under Margaret Thatcher.
Kevin McCarthy < Margaret Thatcher. I am quite confident that the Iron Lady would have put the 1981 equivalents of Matt Gaetz within the Conservative party's ranks firmly in their place up on the back benches where they could hoot and boo all they liked but safely away from anywhere they might do anything dangerous like interfere with the actual business of the House.
You know, another reason I dislike McCarthy is that I get the impression he isn't particularly sharp, intellectually. As in, I think nearly all the members of our commenting community here are probably smarter than him. It may genuinely not have occurred to him that he could cut a deal with Hakeem Jeffries and get the votes from across the aisle. And yeah, some members of his constituency wouldn't like that. But not enough to pull off a primary challenge. What's more, the example of Willie Brown taking an iron-clad grip of the California Legislature that way (cutting a deal with Paul Horcher and then screwing over Dick Mountjoy) is right there in front of him.
Other than utterly torpedoing McCarthy if he is seen as participating in such a deal. But as you say, why would they need to do anything about that? The MAGAs are doing a fine job of torpedoing the entire GOP all on their own, right now, in real time, and McCarthy is the one getting stuck holding the bag.
If McCarthy were to lure ~20 Democrats to vote for him, the proffer would have to be dear indeed. Maybe... the Voting Rights Act of 2023?
I find it interesting that McCarthy in particular is inspiring this sort of behavior from the far-right wing of the GOP. History rhyming.
Kevin McCarthy represents Bakersfield, California, and much area around it. Back in the 1980's and 1990's, that same area was represented by Bill Thomas, a Republican who was, in fact, plenty conservative by all standard measurements, and who had a very successful career in the House of Representatives, rising to become Chairman of the Ways and Means Committee. Nevertheless, Thomas who earned significant distrust from the right wing of the GOP, who called him a "squish," which was 90's-speak for what in the 10's was a "RINO" and today is a member of the "establishment."
Once upon a time, Thomas found a former President of the California Young Republicans to become his legislative aide. This young man was elected to the Bakersfield seat of the California Assembly (the lower house of the state legislature) that Thomas had once held when he was coming up through the ranks, with help from Thomas' impressive money-raising machine. Thomas' fortunate young protégé is named... Kevin McCarthy.
(Edited to add: before I moved to Oregon from California, McCarthy was my Congressman, because a little tendril of his district protruded down into my community. I... Well, let's just leave it at "I dislike him," and not just because of his political alignment.)
Thank you for this look into your heart. It is beautiful, as is your ongoing love for your best friend. Know that you have a whole community of support.
I disagree. There's a lot of creativity, good writing, interesting story ideas, feats of technical prowess, and perhaps most interesting of all, risk-taking going on in this list. Compared to much of the past decade, there are relatively few sequels, franchise fillers, and superheroes on this list. And the obvious king of these, Everything Everywhere All At Once, is an absolute triumph.
On “Democracy In Action or Inaction?”
This is only one of several places where the OP reads to me like a missive sent from another world, another time. At best. The OP simply assumes:
1) that Republicans given power will use it to cut spending (as opposed to shifting it to different things and running up deficits, which is what experience shows actually happens), and maximize individual freedom (which let's just call a questionable proposition and leave it at that);
and
2) that Donald Trump would be a good Speaker of the House (whatever his other personal and professional merits or lack thereof, Trump's means of exercising power is direct, public and unsubtle; his temperament and interest in public policy is is not compatible with the kind of work involved in administering the Speaker's office).
Finally, it questions whether Kevin McCarthy is a conservative, which again strikes me as having a perspective so strikingly different from my own (whatever his other qualities, good or bad, liberalism is not one of them) that I'm just going to remark on how it feels like the post comes from a different world.
On “TSN Open Mic for the week of 1/9/2023”
And thanks to the lumber shortage, this homeowner who would like to build in some shelving in his basement brewery got deterred from doing so by the high cost of the lumber needed to fulfill his plans. It would be cheaper for me to buy prefab steel shelves than to make wooden ones myself out of plywood and 2x4s. But those would be 1) not as much fun to assemble as building the shelves myself, 2) not as good looking when they were done, and 3) more dangerous to people working under them (read: me) should they fall over in the event of a wall-mounting failure (it's either pretty thin drywall on a hollow core or solid cinderblock I'd need a gunpowder-charged bolt to secure the mounting bracket although yes, if I did that, that thing would be there permanently).
Don't get me wrong, there's still tons and tons of logs out there waiting to be loaded onto barges that I see out on the river. I mean, this is Oregon. We have lots of trees. But I bet those trees are more and more valuable than ever before, judging by the price of what lumber mills turn those trees into.
On “The Big Surpise From the Speaker Fight That No One is Talking About”
My comment was about McCarthy specifically, not Republicans generally.
"
I'm old enough to remember this thing called the "Tea Party." The Freedom Caucus is a direct product of it.
I think the real surprises here are that a) McCarthy is trying to put some distance between himself and Trump, and b) he's still getting ~90% of the votes of his caucus. Hell, today he got up to 214, and they're re-convening in a few hours so maybe he'll pull it off.
I wonder what he's had to give away to get there.
On “Rise of the Moderates?”
If I'm a Democrat, I'm prepared to make some significant concessions to Republicans I can stand if they vote for Jeffries. But I sure as hell ain't voting for McCarthy.
if I'm a non-MAGA Republican, I'm prepared to make some significant concessions to Democrats I can stand if they vote for McCarthy. But I sure as hell ain't voting for Jeffries.
If I'm a MAGA Republican, I'm winning (everyone is paying attention to me so I can make demands) with only 21 votes because i have a bigger bladder than anyone else in the pissing contest. Why should I do anything different?
"
CSPAN reporters suggest there's some sort of a deal being cut, and there seem to be Republicans and Democrats negotiating with one another on the floor. (Just saw Matt Gaetz talking with Debbie Wasserman-Schultz, among other odd couples.) Maybe I'll have to eat my words!
"
For the time being, it is a given. For very similar reasons as to both propositions. The incentives on one or both sides need to shift before there's going to be any poaching.
On “TSN Open Mic for the week of 1/2/2023”
Clicking through to get to the rule itself, and seeing the most prominent replies to the announcement, reinforced my decision to leave twitter. Nevertheless, thanks for flagging this, it's a very good thing.
On “Rise of the Moderates?”
I think we're a long way from the resolution described in the OP.
The MAGA bloc has found a lever and they're leaning into it for all it's worth and these aren't people who compromise. Compromising is swampish behavior. Or something a "wet" would do, to adopt Saul's nomenclature from yesterday's discussion.
And as we all seemed to concur yesterday, the Democrats have no real incentive to help McCarthy or any other Republican go over the top, absent the tender of a price that would absolutely doom the future of any Republican who might otherwise be willing to pay it.
We aren't going to see Members pressed up against the hard wall of needing to actually get the House organized until existing spending or debt limit resolutions become imminent enough that default on the debt becomes a possibility. IIRC, we're good for about eleven more months with the recent spending package passed three weeks ago.
If you're sitting back with the popcorn for every vote, you might want to budget some extra cardio time into your daily routine.
"
That you would propose doing such a thing and that I would agree to it is probably explanation enough for why you and I aren't actually there in the Chamber right now.
"
On ballot #8, recently concluded a few minutes before posting this comment, Donald J. Trump of Florida got exactly one vote. I don't know if, and if so how many, non-members have ever actually received votes before. But I think it's fair to evaluate the potential of him winning on a subsequent ballot as something of a long shot.
On “From the New Republic: Kevin McCarthy Has Lost Control of the House GOP”
I can already imagine the hue and cry when someone suggests that the party and its money back Sinema rather than an actual registered Democrat. Which some people will think is a good idea (she is the incumbent, after all, and she's a damn sight better than the Republican) and others will think is terrible (but she's not a Democrat and look we have a nominee!) and thus cause schism. Probably a schism that will heal only after Sinema is replaced by a Republican. (Unless she can somehow make nice with the progressives who have been criticizing her for so long and with such intensity that she defected out of the party altogether, and I for one will not be holding my breath waiting for that to happen.)
FTR my personal sympathies would be with the pragmatists, but the idealists have a valid point in that argument.
I guess schism could also be avoided or healed if Sinema opts to not run for re-election for some reason.
"
Yes, and also Jeremy Renner getting run over by his own SnowCat. Yikes.
"
Are they really using those terms? I had to look them up and found that "wet" and "dry" trace back to factional fissures in the British Conservative Party under Margaret Thatcher.
Kevin McCarthy < Margaret Thatcher. I am quite confident that the Iron Lady would have put the 1981 equivalents of Matt Gaetz within the Conservative party's ranks firmly in their place up on the back benches where they could hoot and boo all they liked but safely away from anywhere they might do anything dangerous like interfere with the actual business of the House.
"
You know, another reason I dislike McCarthy is that I get the impression he isn't particularly sharp, intellectually. As in, I think nearly all the members of our commenting community here are probably smarter than him. It may genuinely not have occurred to him that he could cut a deal with Hakeem Jeffries and get the votes from across the aisle. And yeah, some members of his constituency wouldn't like that. But not enough to pull off a primary challenge. What's more, the example of Willie Brown taking an iron-clad grip of the California Legislature that way (cutting a deal with Paul Horcher and then screwing over Dick Mountjoy) is right there in front of him.
"
Looks like she just got about three and a half hours to make that happen.
"
McCarthy 201
Jeffries 212
Donalds 20
Others 0
Present 1 (Victoria Spartz, R-Indiana)
House adjourns, to reconvene at 8:00 p.m. EST tonight. Trade them horses!
"
Other than utterly torpedoing McCarthy if he is seen as participating in such a deal. But as you say, why would they need to do anything about that? The MAGAs are doing a fine job of torpedoing the entire GOP all on their own, right now, in real time, and McCarthy is the one getting stuck holding the bag.
If McCarthy were to lure ~20 Democrats to vote for him, the proffer would have to be dear indeed. Maybe... the Voting Rights Act of 2023?
"
I find it interesting that McCarthy in particular is inspiring this sort of behavior from the far-right wing of the GOP. History rhyming.
Kevin McCarthy represents Bakersfield, California, and much area around it. Back in the 1980's and 1990's, that same area was represented by Bill Thomas, a Republican who was, in fact, plenty conservative by all standard measurements, and who had a very successful career in the House of Representatives, rising to become Chairman of the Ways and Means Committee. Nevertheless, Thomas who earned significant distrust from the right wing of the GOP, who called him a "squish," which was 90's-speak for what in the 10's was a "RINO" and today is a member of the "establishment."
Once upon a time, Thomas found a former President of the California Young Republicans to become his legislative aide. This young man was elected to the Bakersfield seat of the California Assembly (the lower house of the state legislature) that Thomas had once held when he was coming up through the ranks, with help from Thomas' impressive money-raising machine. Thomas' fortunate young protégé is named... Kevin McCarthy.
(Edited to add: before I moved to Oregon from California, McCarthy was my Congressman, because a little tendril of his district protruded down into my community. I... Well, let's just leave it at "I dislike him," and not just because of his political alignment.)
"
[Finger pointing directly upwards]
This. This right here.
"
Danegeld is subject to inflation over time.
On “The World Is Yours, Or At Least The Size of It Is”
No. I'm not coming back to Twitter. I'm happier without it. Do you realize how many books I've read this month?
On “Grief and Gratitude”
Thank you for this look into your heart. It is beautiful, as is your ongoing love for your best friend. Know that you have a whole community of support.
On “2022: The Year in Science”
We should probably take the microchips out of them then. Who's got the tweezers?
On “My Top 25 Films Of 2022: One Critic’s Best Of The Year List”
I disagree. There's a lot of creativity, good writing, interesting story ideas, feats of technical prowess, and perhaps most interesting of all, risk-taking going on in this list. Compared to much of the past decade, there are relatively few sequels, franchise fillers, and superheroes on this list. And the obvious king of these, Everything Everywhere All At Once, is an absolute triumph.