Wiki's per day body count graph suggests Israel's "over reaction" may not be a thing.
Hamas did 10-7.
The appropriate response is a brutal war.
It's expected and acceptable if civilians die in a brutal war.
Genocide is illegal and immoral... but we want Israel to do seems to be more "not have a brutal war" than "not commit genocide".
As far as I can tell, as horrible as it is, Israel can keep the war going basically forever and have it still be ethical because Hamas refuses to surrender or stop it's war crimes.
Requests for us to prevent Israel from fighting the war are also requests for them to live with a fascist genocidal terror group terrorizing their civilians.
It would be nice if Israel found different ways to protect their civilians, and I'm doubtful that the current approach will work. Having said that, if their current approach is ethical then it's ethical.
That's why the Protesters keep jumping the shark. They need to spin a fascist genocidal terror group terrorizing civilians into something that's justified and ethical. Part of doing that is going to include "not dealing with reality".
It's like being in a bad 1970's sci fiction movie. Many loud, deeply dramatic hums and other sounds.
Occasionally I got a hot flash. I suspect there's (supposed to be not) enough energy being thrown around to set you on fire just from the iron in your blood.
Outlaw the loans. That forces the handful of people in this situation to actually have an income with realized cap gains. That fixes the actual problem created by these loans.
The flaw is it won't raise anywhere near enough money to do what the gov wants.
Harris gets a C+ or so. She's a generic Blue. She's missing both outstanding accomplishments and serious scandals. If someone brings solid evidence that she's been a key Biden aid then I'll raise that.
Her VP gets a B. Successful Governor.
Trump's VP gets an E or so. He's either a right wing nut or darn close and he was selected for personal loyalty to Trump.
Trump doesn't get a grade because school shooters don't graduate.
To a first approximation, businesses mostly collect taxes as opposed to paying them. There are a ton of fine print and inaccuracies to that statement, but if we're collecting a lot more in business taxes we should expect higher prices.
The PA is deeply corrupt, repressive, and doesn't represent it's people. Hamas is also deeply corrupt and also repressive.
However, violently opposing Israel is popular and desired. Attempting to get a "meaningful RoR" is so popular that the PA officially is trying to do that even though they've been bought out by Israel.
If they held elections right now Hamas would probably win, just because it managed to kill lots of Jews.
Hamas tends to get a pass because it's viewed as representing the "legitimate political aspirations" of the Palestinians. Those political aspirations can be summed up as "kicking the Jews out".
That's why I think Israel can't win the war in Gaza. Kill every member of Hamas and we'd instantly see a Hamas-2. They'd have to be violent because non-violence won't destroy Israel.
Hamas exists because the Palestinians want it. That's especially true for the people of Gaza who lost their land in the 1940s and have been told every since that they'll get it back.
That Hamas is greatly undercounting the number of people dead? Are we missing hundreds of thousands of people? Maybe vast numbers are starving to death stick-figure like but Hamas hasn't felt the need to mention this?
Or do we have a "genocide" going on without people dying?
IMHO what we have here is a brutal war but Israel isn't engaged in genocide. Even Hamas' numbers don't back that up.
Philip: Israel is engaging in genocidal activities by actively denying food, water, medical aid and evacuation routes to civilians in a war zone.
That is the claim. It's been the claim for a year.
So... how many people have died from this?
Here is a graph of Gaza death toll for every 5 days since the beginning of the war. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Casualties_of_the_Israel%E2%80%93Hamas_war#/media/File:Gaza_death_graph.png
If vast numbers of people were dying from hunger and thirst, wouldn't the per day body count be going through the roof?
We have a "genocide" where the number of dead per day is going down, not up.
The numbers suggest people aren't running out of food or water. The lack of medical care is killing fewer people as time goes on.
The UN claimed the lack of humanitarian evacuation routes would kill hundreds of thousands of people in the invasion of Rafa, but after the invasion Hamas claimed 900 people died.
The numbers strongly suggest the "genocide" narrative is wrong.
During Covid, we started out without much information at all because we haven't seen this in a century so the entire situation was effectively brand new.
Is covid worse than the flu? Is covid so bad we need to shut down the economy? Do the vaccines work?
Turns out that many of the answers are "it depends". So what "the official truth" was could reasonably change from day to day.
Unfortunately, shutting down unreasonable questions and unreasonable demands also includes shutting down reasonable questions and demands.
We also have the complications that...
1) The gov loves to use excuses to take power and keep it
2) There are segments of society that reject vaccinations and don't trust science.
3) Those segments in #2 need to be beaten down in order for herd immunity to be a thing.
The idea that RoR isn't the cornerstone of the problem and the conflict.
The only supposed ‘example’ of that is Arafat in 2000,
When I read wiki on the RoR, the peace process, and the conflict, I see it spelled out repeatedly that the RoR is the cornerstone of the Palestinian demands. I also see that in the charters.
Accepting a limited right of return would not have, at any point, destroyed ‘Israel’.
150k per year forever means Israel is destroyed as a Jewish state over the next several decades.
For all the happy talk about how it wouldn't be used and how it would be discouraged, 150k/year was the actual black letter definition of "limited" from the Palestinian point of view.
The only thing Arafat actually wanted was the right of return to Jerusalem.
That spin doesn't match the Palestinian proposal.
a thing that actually could _end_ this, if Palestinians were actually _paid_ for the land they were forced out of
I see no evidence the Palestinians have ever made this proposal. If it'd work then that's great. However you are assuming they're not serious about RoR.
If you're correct then the settlements and so on are the root of the problem and all we need is for Israel to pull out and that would be that.
However I see a ton of evidence that says they are extremely serious about getting an Israel-destroying RoR.
If that's where their heads are at, then peace is impossible. That explains why there was no peace before the settlements existed which was the first 40 years or so. That also explains their charters, wiki's various statements, and so on.
I'm not looking at Israeli propaganda. I'm looking at Palestinian charters and proposals and even behavior.
For example Hamas doesn't make any distinction between "settler in an area that should be ours" and "Jew in an area that will eventually be Jewish". Those villages they wiped out weren't in disputed territory.
From this specific action? Probably not. The builders seem unclear as to what exactly they're building.
However we're bouncing back and forth from this as an example and policy in general.
If we get rid of NIMBY's ability to shut down the creation of housing and other changes to neighborhoods, then we will see more changes to neighborhoods and we will see more market forces resolving various issues.
If you're saying that you're in favor of change but just not this specific change and you want it stopped, then you're deep in NIMBY territory. They're always in favor of change but just want that change to happen somewhere else.
If we allow people to build what they want, then we're going to see more housing and more rich companies building random stuff.
The tools which allow you to pick and choose what is built will be controlled by NIMBY and they strongly oppose affordable housing. So the more tools you allow to control what is built, the less affordable housing you'll get.
If you're going to go full YIMBY then it's also expected that you'll have rich builders seeking profit. That's a good thing because stopping them also stops housing in general.
DavidTC: I would like a _single_ person in this discussion to actually address this very obvious point
My way to "address" your obvious point is point out that it doesn't match what the Palestinians themselves have claimed. Nor does it match the charters, nor the peace negotiations.
If your claims are correct, then why are the settlements not such a big deal in the peace negotiations but an Israel-destroying right to return is worth walking away from the table over?
On “Open Mic for the week of 8/26/2024”
They're negotiating like they're going to be killed if and when the hostages are released and the war ends.
"
Wiki's per day body count graph suggests Israel's "over reaction" may not be a thing.
Hamas did 10-7.
The appropriate response is a brutal war.
It's expected and acceptable if civilians die in a brutal war.
Genocide is illegal and immoral... but we want Israel to do seems to be more "not have a brutal war" than "not commit genocide".
As far as I can tell, as horrible as it is, Israel can keep the war going basically forever and have it still be ethical because Hamas refuses to surrender or stop it's war crimes.
Requests for us to prevent Israel from fighting the war are also requests for them to live with a fascist genocidal terror group terrorizing their civilians.
It would be nice if Israel found different ways to protect their civilians, and I'm doubtful that the current approach will work. Having said that, if their current approach is ethical then it's ethical.
That's why the Protesters keep jumping the shark. They need to spin a fascist genocidal terror group terrorizing civilians into something that's justified and ethical. Part of doing that is going to include "not dealing with reality".
On “Weekend Plans Post: The MRI”
It's like being in a bad 1970's sci fiction movie. Many loud, deeply dramatic hums and other sounds.
Occasionally I got a hot flash. I suspect there's (supposed to be not) enough energy being thrown around to set you on fire just from the iron in your blood.
On “Open Mic for the week of 8/26/2024”
Judge tossed the appeal because he did something unprofessionally foolish in writing out the papers. Something about the PDF.
Note it's impossible to appeal that.
"
Looks like they were recently killed by their captors. There are suggestions it was when Israeli troops got too close. No clue if that's speculative.
On “Kamala’s Taxing Policies”
Outlaw the loans. That forces the handful of people in this situation to actually have an income with realized cap gains. That fixes the actual problem created by these loans.
The flaw is it won't raise anywhere near enough money to do what the gov wants.
"
True that.
If I have to give school grades to all of them...
Harris gets a C+ or so. She's a generic Blue. She's missing both outstanding accomplishments and serious scandals. If someone brings solid evidence that she's been a key Biden aid then I'll raise that.
Her VP gets a B. Successful Governor.
Trump's VP gets an E or so. He's either a right wing nut or darn close and he was selected for personal loyalty to Trump.
Trump doesn't get a grade because school shooters don't graduate.
"
To a first approximation, businesses mostly collect taxes as opposed to paying them. There are a ton of fine print and inaccuracies to that statement, but if we're collecting a lot more in business taxes we should expect higher prices.
On “Open Mic for the week of 8/26/2024”
North: Hamas tends to “get a pass” because it is the opponent both the Israeli and American right wants.
When I say it "gets a pass" I mean "it gets a pass from the Arab media that I listen to".
The phrase "represents the legitimate political aspirations of the Palestinians" is something I've gotten from Al Jazeera a time or three.
That phrase is the flip side of them pretending Hamas doesn't exist and Israel is at war with the people of Gaza.
North: the PA administers more Palestinians and has been behaving generally quite well towards Israel for the past decade or so.
True. And this is one of the reasons they can't have elections. The people want their land back, to do that they need a war with Israel.
"
The PA is deeply corrupt, repressive, and doesn't represent it's people. Hamas is also deeply corrupt and also repressive.
However, violently opposing Israel is popular and desired. Attempting to get a "meaningful RoR" is so popular that the PA officially is trying to do that even though they've been bought out by Israel.
If they held elections right now Hamas would probably win, just because it managed to kill lots of Jews.
Hamas tends to get a pass because it's viewed as representing the "legitimate political aspirations" of the Palestinians. Those political aspirations can be summed up as "kicking the Jews out".
That's why I think Israel can't win the war in Gaza. Kill every member of Hamas and we'd instantly see a Hamas-2. They'd have to be violent because non-violence won't destroy Israel.
Hamas exists because the Palestinians want it. That's especially true for the people of Gaza who lost their land in the 1940s and have been told every since that they'll get it back.
"
So what is your claim here?
That Hamas is greatly undercounting the number of people dead? Are we missing hundreds of thousands of people? Maybe vast numbers are starving to death stick-figure like but Hamas hasn't felt the need to mention this?
Or do we have a "genocide" going on without people dying?
IMHO what we have here is a brutal war but Israel isn't engaged in genocide. Even Hamas' numbers don't back that up.
"
Philip: Israel is engaging in genocidal activities by actively denying food, water, medical aid and evacuation routes to civilians in a war zone.
That is the claim. It's been the claim for a year.
So... how many people have died from this?
Here is a graph of Gaza death toll for every 5 days since the beginning of the war. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Casualties_of_the_Israel%E2%80%93Hamas_war#/media/File:Gaza_death_graph.png
If vast numbers of people were dying from hunger and thirst, wouldn't the per day body count be going through the roof?
We have a "genocide" where the number of dead per day is going down, not up.
The numbers suggest people aren't running out of food or water. The lack of medical care is killing fewer people as time goes on.
The UN claimed the lack of humanitarian evacuation routes would kill hundreds of thousands of people in the invasion of Rafa, but after the invasion Hamas claimed 900 people died.
The numbers strongly suggest the "genocide" narrative is wrong.
"
The definition of "full-blown genocide" just got equated to "civilians killed in a brutal war".
The result of that redefinition is Israel isn't allowed to have a brutal war in Gaza.
This then becomes "Israel must tolerate it's civilians being terrorized and even subjected to mass murder".
"
So all we have to do is pretend that the gov has no ability to hurt companies if they don't do what is wanted and we're good.
"
I find Israel troops videoing themselves breaking teacups a lot less of a problem than someone videoing themselves killing civilians.
"
During Covid, we started out without much information at all because we haven't seen this in a century so the entire situation was effectively brand new.
Is covid worse than the flu? Is covid so bad we need to shut down the economy? Do the vaccines work?
Turns out that many of the answers are "it depends". So what "the official truth" was could reasonably change from day to day.
Unfortunately, shutting down unreasonable questions and unreasonable demands also includes shutting down reasonable questions and demands.
We also have the complications that...
1) The gov loves to use excuses to take power and keep it
2) There are segments of society that reject vaccinations and don't trust science.
3) Those segments in #2 need to be beaten down in order for herd immunity to be a thing.
"
My brother had a high prey drive dog who found a squirrel under a car. After that every car had a squirrel.
On “Kamala Harris DNC Speech: Watch It For Yourself”
What part of my statement is disputable?
The idea that RoR isn't the cornerstone of the problem and the conflict.
The only supposed ‘example’ of that is Arafat in 2000,
When I read wiki on the RoR, the peace process, and the conflict, I see it spelled out repeatedly that the RoR is the cornerstone of the Palestinian demands. I also see that in the charters.
Accepting a limited right of return would not have, at any point, destroyed ‘Israel’.
150k per year forever means Israel is destroyed as a Jewish state over the next several decades.
For all the happy talk about how it wouldn't be used and how it would be discouraged, 150k/year was the actual black letter definition of "limited" from the Palestinian point of view.
The only thing Arafat actually wanted was the right of return to Jerusalem.
That spin doesn't match the Palestinian proposal.
a thing that actually could _end_ this, if Palestinians were actually _paid_ for the land they were forced out of
I see no evidence the Palestinians have ever made this proposal. If it'd work then that's great. However you are assuming they're not serious about RoR.
If you're correct then the settlements and so on are the root of the problem and all we need is for Israel to pull out and that would be that.
However I see a ton of evidence that says they are extremely serious about getting an Israel-destroying RoR.
If that's where their heads are at, then peace is impossible. That explains why there was no peace before the settlements existed which was the first 40 years or so. That also explains their charters, wiki's various statements, and so on.
I'm not looking at Israeli propaganda. I'm looking at Palestinian charters and proposals and even behavior.
For example Hamas doesn't make any distinction between "settler in an area that should be ours" and "Jew in an area that will eventually be Jewish". Those villages they wiped out weren't in disputed territory.
On “Open Mic for the week of 8/26/2024”
My divorce lawyer did just fight with his landlord and ended up in a new building. This sort of thing isn't normally "destruction".
"
From this specific action? Probably not. The builders seem unclear as to what exactly they're building.
However we're bouncing back and forth from this as an example and policy in general.
If we get rid of NIMBY's ability to shut down the creation of housing and other changes to neighborhoods, then we will see more changes to neighborhoods and we will see more market forces resolving various issues.
If you're saying that you're in favor of change but just not this specific change and you want it stopped, then you're deep in NIMBY territory. They're always in favor of change but just want that change to happen somewhere else.
"
If we allow people to build what they want, then we're going to see more housing and more rich companies building random stuff.
The tools which allow you to pick and choose what is built will be controlled by NIMBY and they strongly oppose affordable housing. So the more tools you allow to control what is built, the less affordable housing you'll get.
If you're going to go full YIMBY then it's also expected that you'll have rich builders seeking profit. That's a good thing because stopping them also stops housing in general.
On “Kamala Harris DNC Speech: Watch It For Yourself”
DavidTC: I would like a _single_ person in this discussion to actually address this very obvious point
My way to "address" your obvious point is point out that it doesn't match what the Palestinians themselves have claimed. Nor does it match the charters, nor the peace negotiations.
If your claims are correct, then why are the settlements not such a big deal in the peace negotiations but an Israel-destroying right to return is worth walking away from the table over?
On “Open Mic for the week of 8/26/2024”
That sort of thing is expected of what we should see with YIMBY.
"
Hopefully Cannon gets removed from the case on this one.
"
TFG is going to constantly interrupt her if they have live mics and lie constantly if they don't.
I'm not sure there's a solution here other than "no debate".
I would prefer a robust debate but there's no way he's going to follow even the basic rules of discourse.
*Comment archive for non-registered commenters assembled by email address as provided.