Thanks for reading Philip. I didn't write about the time I went to Gretnafest. Crossing the river was like leaving New Orleans and entered Louisiana with a capital L. Totally different but wonderful experience. We were adopted by the people around us for the night.
I considered that Almarie may have some African ancestry, and that's why i was careful to say someone that looked like her. I couldn't find any evidence in my research that she did. That said, it poses other interesting questions like: does it matter? and if so, how much? such a messy topic when you start parsing on that level.
Yeah, we do. Those are immunizations against diseases that harm children. This is an emergency use authorization vaccine that doesn't immunize a child from a virus that poses little risk to them.
You don'y have to buy that argument. That's what parents think. So go ahead and mandate covid shots to go to kindergarten. Find out what happens. Be prepared to be incredulous about how stupid these parents are for not capitulating and perplexed at how the GOP wipes out your side a year from now..
To compare the NYC 2021 Mayoral Election to the film "Dumb & Dumber" would be an insult to the scriptwriters of that movie.
Eric Admas just needed to keep his mouth shut to win in a landslide - and he did. Curtis Sliwa is a poor man's Donald Trump in a funny hat who thinks animal cruelty is the #1 issue facing NYers. Godspeed, NYC.
That's not was I was saying. My entire point was mandating kids to get vaxxed to go back to school will ensure a WIPEOUT. It's a 3rd rail issue. Touch it if you dare. I never implied it was the only thing they needed to back off of to have a good midterm. That's obviously not the case. Dems are going to bite it next year. the only questions now are how badly and are they willing to come back to the center to try and avoid a total disaster.
Unfortunately for the party, they are comprised of too many people who look at yesterday and think "we 'didn't go far left enough' - Y'all should not listen to those people. They know not what they say.
Personal opinion on the risk/reward societal benefit is largely irrelevant, but reasonable people can disagree on the necessity of mandatory vaxing of kids at this point of the pandemic.
Regardless, I doin't think it is a damned if you do, damned if you don't scenario for dems.
Compelling parents to have their children take a (EUA) shot that does not immunize them against a virus that is extremely low risk to them anyway - two plus years of mass exposure - that is a recipe for democratic disaster. Most parents of small children do not give a crap about 'greater good' arguments when it comes to their kids.
It's the moderates and independents you need to not piss off. This is not currently the demographic that is going to BLAME democrats for not enforcing mandates. The only people who will be angry at democrats for not doing mandates are democrats who are never voting republican anyway.
I think you understate the significance of the VA and NJ gubernatorial races - where one was driven by education and the other covid - but both relevant nationally. I currently live in NJ. Unlike VA where there were late warning signs, NO ONE expected it to be this close.
I also look to Nassau County on Long Island. A place I spent a a very long time living. It was traditionally GOP for decades, turned purple and then strongly blue in the last 15 years. The democrats were routed last night. The GOP hadn't had a showing like that since the 1990s.
Personally I think the results in NY and NJ are indicative of peoples frustration of democrat controlled Covid policies. And I think that is a midterm issue for all blues heading into midterms should fear.
And just calling it now, if children 5 and up are required to get the vax to return to the classroom in September, you can expect the Dems to get wiped out in the midterms. If you think CRT is unpopular, just wait until you force little kids to get the shot.
The GOP had a strong night. To say otherwise is detached from reality.
To the extent that it was.just a bad night or a disastrous one for Democrats depends entirely on how they course correct over the next 12 months. Less preaching and more listening might be a good start.
There is no hole in my theory. It's not even a theory. It's a plain as day observation.
Equity/CRT is a wedge issue that the GOP has certainly exploited to their advantage. (why wouldn't they?) But there are too many real life examples of the clumsy and embarrassing execution of the concepts in this PDF (and other materials, corporate or otherwise), to create such a natural, negative reaction in the public.
You can argue that it is rare (I don't think either of know how common or uncommon the flashpoint examples are) but this insistence that *this* isn't actually happening comes across as gas lighting to anyone who has a kid or grandchild who comes home with "race education" homework and is unhappy about it.
Perception is reality.
Win or lose today, McAulliff is demonstrating, in real time, how costly the "denial" strategy is for democrats.
You can parse the definition of CRT all you want, whatever you call *this* seems to be wildly unpopular with the American public. Insisting *this* doesn't exist isn't helping your team.
The fact that blue Virginia is so close at this point indicates that Youngkin is a moderate Republican. The kind of candidate the LP should support, not try and destroy.
It's interesting looking at LP's twitter feed the last month. It seems they were more focused on trolling Trump on the fact that Youngkin wanted nothing to do with him. Then the race got close and now he's just like Trump. Funny how that happened.
Aside from the axe-to-grind crew (if I were Steele or worked for Mitt, I'd be pissed too), the LP Advisory Board boasts conservative stalwarts Like Molly Jong Fast (of the Daily Beast) and Rachel Bitecofer (who "launched a liberal super PAC named Strike Pac, which she describes as "a war machine for the Left."
You can see why conservatives concerned about the direction of the GOP would align themselves with such folk. The only way to save the party is to elect progressives!
George Conway (since has left the organization)
Steve Schmidt (since has left the organization)
Jennifer Horn (since has left the organization)
Ron Steslow (since has left the organization)
Mike Madrid (since has left the organization)
The LP sounded plausible when it was formed. Never Trump was a real thing. But Trump is gone and since the PAC exclusively supports dems now, any pretense that this is (if it ever was) a "GOP" operation is just willful ignorance.
Don't listen to what they say, just look at what they do and who funds it...
The McAuliffe campaign denounced it and denied any coordination with the group SIX HOURS after they shared it with the world claiming this was 'disqualifying'.
This wasn't performance art attempting to raise awareness. It was an immoral attempt to influence an election result.
Perhaps it was coordinated by the LP. Perhaps not. The only thing we do know for sure is that the people posing as "racist republicans" were actually democrats.
Whoever issued the lockdowns and where in Spring 2020 is largely irrelevant since I'm not aware of many places in the the U.S. you could do much of anything once the virus got going. The vast majority of the public was doing exactly what Dr Fauci recommended. The decisions he made in the early months are not the reason for his unpopularity with half the country today. The mask reversal was just the first of the "inconsistencies" that garner more attention because his emails indicate he advised personal connections not to bother wearing a mask. Honestly, that is more problematic for him than the "noble lie" of saving respirators for front line workers. If you are a person who hates wearing a mask, it's a hard thing not remember.
Sorry, I think I replied to you to Philip above. I guess I'd add a point here to Philip. I think most people would hold public health policy experts to a much higher standard than a politician. It's assumed they are all liars. That's why they run attack ads. Easier to tear someone else down than elevate yourself.
In terms of persuasion - I totally agree that they have been a failure. I concede persuasion IS an element of effective communications. People will say they did everything they could and anyone not on board is just a nutjob. But they didn't. Education efforts have been preachy and tone deaf. Blaming Fox News or Red State governors. Once everything became political, heels were dug in. The public health leaders should have done a better job of staying above the fray, but the did not. If they were actually interested in being persuasive, they would have tried harder and been more transparent.
I agree that some of the inconsistencies are due to evolving understanding of the virus, how it is transmitted, the efficacy of X, Y, Z, etc. And if that was the only thing we were talking about, there would still be be people who who are dead set against what he says - mainly because they just don't want to continue living this way. Let's call them the deeply cynical. But when you add the documented "noble lies" that are told because the public can't handle the truth (there are several) - he has admitted trying to 'nudge' people by fibbing this or that - throw in vaccines (there will not be mandates), suspending the J&J jab, ignoring natural immunity - and then add in the big ticket items like the orchestrated dismissal of the lab leak theory and the role his agency plays in gain-of-function research (that's not *really* gain of function...) -- it really should not be a surprise to see that half the country doesn't trust him anymore. Those are not communications issues, per se. Those are all choices, some worse than others, but they add up.
Anyway, that's my take. I could be wrong, I often am...
If you're locking down society and enforcing the strictest of strict social distancing policies where you're not suppose to leave your house, why do you need to lie? You can't say, we need N95 respirators for our medical staffs for whom it provides *some* protection? I mean, do you really think whatever they said to deter the public from buying N95s made any difference? I don't.
Meanwhile supply ramped up pretty quickly and lying about it only hurt credibility, which has had a much more lasting effect.
But that sort of goes to my point. That's not a communications issue. That was the messaging that I can only assume was agreed to by Fauci and other public policy people.
The sum total of the inconsistencies in those messages is the issue. That is what undermines their ability to persuade a large portion of the public.
Let's put it this way, if you were on Fauci's comms team, you have a lot easier job than if you worked for a lunatic like Trump or a cognitively declining Biden. The "circle backs" to "clarify" what they said/say deserves serious hazard pay.
Dr Fauci is not just a good communicator, he's an excellent one. By any measure, scientist, bureaucrat, politician or otherwise.
The majority of his career has been spent doing hight profile, high stakes public engagement. He did not rise to the level he has achieved by not being an incredibly effective communicator. This isn't some researcher that has been hiding in lab for the past 40 years.
The problem isn't that he doesn't stay on message, the problem is the messaging is constantly changing.
On “Ode To The Big Easy”
Thanks for reading Philip. I didn't write about the time I went to Gretnafest. Crossing the river was like leaving New Orleans and entered Louisiana with a capital L. Totally different but wonderful experience. We were adopted by the people around us for the night.
I considered that Almarie may have some African ancestry, and that's why i was careful to say someone that looked like her. I couldn't find any evidence in my research that she did. That said, it poses other interesting questions like: does it matter? and if so, how much? such a messy topic when you start parsing on that level.
On “About Last Night: Youngkin Wins In Virginia, GOP Has Strong Night”
Yeah, we do. Those are immunizations against diseases that harm children. This is an emergency use authorization vaccine that doesn't immunize a child from a virus that poses little risk to them.
You don'y have to buy that argument. That's what parents think. So go ahead and mandate covid shots to go to kindergarten. Find out what happens. Be prepared to be incredulous about how stupid these parents are for not capitulating and perplexed at how the GOP wipes out your side a year from now..
"
Obviously. But I think a more serious GOP candidate could have made it an actual contest.
Unfortunately since the NYC GOP consists of about 25 guys on Staten Island, you get what you get.
"
To compare the NYC 2021 Mayoral Election to the film "Dumb & Dumber" would be an insult to the scriptwriters of that movie.
Eric Admas just needed to keep his mouth shut to win in a landslide - and he did. Curtis Sliwa is a poor man's Donald Trump in a funny hat who thinks animal cruelty is the #1 issue facing NYers. Godspeed, NYC.
"
That's not was I was saying. My entire point was mandating kids to get vaxxed to go back to school will ensure a WIPEOUT. It's a 3rd rail issue. Touch it if you dare. I never implied it was the only thing they needed to back off of to have a good midterm. That's obviously not the case. Dems are going to bite it next year. the only questions now are how badly and are they willing to come back to the center to try and avoid a total disaster.
Unfortunately for the party, they are comprised of too many people who look at yesterday and think "we 'didn't go far left enough' - Y'all should not listen to those people. They know not what they say.
"
Personal opinion on the risk/reward societal benefit is largely irrelevant, but reasonable people can disagree on the necessity of mandatory vaxing of kids at this point of the pandemic.
Regardless, I doin't think it is a damned if you do, damned if you don't scenario for dems.
Compelling parents to have their children take a (EUA) shot that does not immunize them against a virus that is extremely low risk to them anyway - two plus years of mass exposure - that is a recipe for democratic disaster. Most parents of small children do not give a crap about 'greater good' arguments when it comes to their kids.
It's the moderates and independents you need to not piss off. This is not currently the demographic that is going to BLAME democrats for not enforcing mandates. The only people who will be angry at democrats for not doing mandates are democrats who are never voting republican anyway.
"
I think you understate the significance of the VA and NJ gubernatorial races - where one was driven by education and the other covid - but both relevant nationally. I currently live in NJ. Unlike VA where there were late warning signs, NO ONE expected it to be this close.
I also look to Nassau County on Long Island. A place I spent a a very long time living. It was traditionally GOP for decades, turned purple and then strongly blue in the last 15 years. The democrats were routed last night. The GOP hadn't had a showing like that since the 1990s.
Personally I think the results in NY and NJ are indicative of peoples frustration of democrat controlled Covid policies. And I think that is a midterm issue for all blues heading into midterms should fear.
And just calling it now, if children 5 and up are required to get the vax to return to the classroom in September, you can expect the Dems to get wiped out in the midterms. If you think CRT is unpopular, just wait until you force little kids to get the shot.
"
The GOP had a strong night. To say otherwise is detached from reality.
To the extent that it was.just a bad night or a disastrous one for Democrats depends entirely on how they course correct over the next 12 months. Less preaching and more listening might be a good start.
On “The Lincoln Project Takes a Trip to the Theater”
Republicans pounce!
There is no hole in my theory. It's not even a theory. It's a plain as day observation.
Equity/CRT is a wedge issue that the GOP has certainly exploited to their advantage. (why wouldn't they?) But there are too many real life examples of the clumsy and embarrassing execution of the concepts in this PDF (and other materials, corporate or otherwise), to create such a natural, negative reaction in the public.
You can argue that it is rare (I don't think either of know how common or uncommon the flashpoint examples are) but this insistence that *this* isn't actually happening comes across as gas lighting to anyone who has a kid or grandchild who comes home with "race education" homework and is unhappy about it.
Perception is reality.
Win or lose today, McAulliff is demonstrating, in real time, how costly the "denial" strategy is for democrats.
"
You can parse the definition of CRT all you want, whatever you call *this* seems to be wildly unpopular with the American public. Insisting *this* doesn't exist isn't helping your team.
https://www.doe.virginia.gov/edequityva/navigating-equity-book.pdf
"
That sounds like a George W Bush quote.
It's almost as if a politician running for office never attempted to walk a fine line on a wedge issue.
"
The fact that blue Virginia is so close at this point indicates that Youngkin is a moderate Republican. The kind of candidate the LP should support, not try and destroy.
It's interesting looking at LP's twitter feed the last month. It seems they were more focused on trolling Trump on the fact that Youngkin wanted nothing to do with him. Then the race got close and now he's just like Trump. Funny how that happened.
"
Aside from the axe-to-grind crew (if I were Steele or worked for Mitt, I'd be pissed too), the LP Advisory Board boasts conservative stalwarts Like Molly Jong Fast (of the Daily Beast) and Rachel Bitecofer (who "launched a liberal super PAC named Strike Pac, which she describes as "a war machine for the Left."
You can see why conservatives concerned about the direction of the GOP would align themselves with such folk. The only way to save the party is to elect progressives!
"
George Conway (since has left the organization)
Steve Schmidt (since has left the organization)
Jennifer Horn (since has left the organization)
Ron Steslow (since has left the organization)
Mike Madrid (since has left the organization)
The LP sounded plausible when it was formed. Never Trump was a real thing. But Trump is gone and since the PAC exclusively supports dems now, any pretense that this is (if it ever was) a "GOP" operation is just willful ignorance.
Don't listen to what they say, just look at what they do and who funds it...
Walks like a duck, sounds like a duck ...
"
The LP only supports democrats. The LP is entirely funded by democrats.
But sure, they're a GOP organization ... because they say they are ... LOL
"
It seems the only people who consider the LP to be a GOP organization are in the media.
How convenient for dem ops...
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/group-anti-trump-republicans-was-behind-tiki-torches-virginia-campaign-2021-10-30/
"
The McAuliffe campaign denounced it and denied any coordination with the group SIX HOURS after they shared it with the world claiming this was 'disqualifying'.
This wasn't performance art attempting to raise awareness. It was an immoral attempt to influence an election result.
Perhaps it was coordinated by the LP. Perhaps not. The only thing we do know for sure is that the people posing as "racist republicans" were actually democrats.
On “Going to the Dogs Over Anthony Fauci”
Whoever issued the lockdowns and where in Spring 2020 is largely irrelevant since I'm not aware of many places in the the U.S. you could do much of anything once the virus got going. The vast majority of the public was doing exactly what Dr Fauci recommended. The decisions he made in the early months are not the reason for his unpopularity with half the country today. The mask reversal was just the first of the "inconsistencies" that garner more attention because his emails indicate he advised personal connections not to bother wearing a mask. Honestly, that is more problematic for him than the "noble lie" of saving respirators for front line workers. If you are a person who hates wearing a mask, it's a hard thing not remember.
"
Sorry, I think I replied to you to Philip above. I guess I'd add a point here to Philip. I think most people would hold public health policy experts to a much higher standard than a politician. It's assumed they are all liars. That's why they run attack ads. Easier to tear someone else down than elevate yourself.
In terms of persuasion - I totally agree that they have been a failure. I concede persuasion IS an element of effective communications. People will say they did everything they could and anyone not on board is just a nutjob. But they didn't. Education efforts have been preachy and tone deaf. Blaming Fox News or Red State governors. Once everything became political, heels were dug in. The public health leaders should have done a better job of staying above the fray, but the did not. If they were actually interested in being persuasive, they would have tried harder and been more transparent.
"
I agree that some of the inconsistencies are due to evolving understanding of the virus, how it is transmitted, the efficacy of X, Y, Z, etc. And if that was the only thing we were talking about, there would still be be people who who are dead set against what he says - mainly because they just don't want to continue living this way. Let's call them the deeply cynical. But when you add the documented "noble lies" that are told because the public can't handle the truth (there are several) - he has admitted trying to 'nudge' people by fibbing this or that - throw in vaccines (there will not be mandates), suspending the J&J jab, ignoring natural immunity - and then add in the big ticket items like the orchestrated dismissal of the lab leak theory and the role his agency plays in gain-of-function research (that's not *really* gain of function...) -- it really should not be a surprise to see that half the country doesn't trust him anymore. Those are not communications issues, per se. Those are all choices, some worse than others, but they add up.
Anyway, that's my take. I could be wrong, I often am...
"
If you're locking down society and enforcing the strictest of strict social distancing policies where you're not suppose to leave your house, why do you need to lie? You can't say, we need N95 respirators for our medical staffs for whom it provides *some* protection? I mean, do you really think whatever they said to deter the public from buying N95s made any difference? I don't.
Meanwhile supply ramped up pretty quickly and lying about it only hurt credibility, which has had a much more lasting effect.
"
But that sort of goes to my point. That's not a communications issue. That was the messaging that I can only assume was agreed to by Fauci and other public policy people.
The sum total of the inconsistencies in those messages is the issue. That is what undermines their ability to persuade a large portion of the public.
Let's put it this way, if you were on Fauci's comms team, you have a lot easier job than if you worked for a lunatic like Trump or a cognitively declining Biden. The "circle backs" to "clarify" what they said/say deserves serious hazard pay.
"
Agree, they should be either mandating N95 respirators (they are technically not masks) or just forget about face coverings.
Your CVS mask does nothing but wear it for the entirety of this transatlantic flight anyway.
"
Are you're saying I should *stop* wearing by bedazzled lycra mask?
If virtue signaling while looking fabulous is wrong, I don't want to be right!
"
Dr Fauci is not just a good communicator, he's an excellent one. By any measure, scientist, bureaucrat, politician or otherwise.
The majority of his career has been spent doing hight profile, high stakes public engagement. He did not rise to the level he has achieved by not being an incredibly effective communicator. This isn't some researcher that has been hiding in lab for the past 40 years.
The problem isn't that he doesn't stay on message, the problem is the messaging is constantly changing.