In a way. The natural rejoinder to that though is to ask whether what Trump and the Republicans are likely to do to Medicaid, food stamps, etc. really constitutes 'populism' in any meaningful way.
The question for Democrats is how they've allowed themselves to become so obsessed with niche causes and groups so tiny and marginalized they might not even exist that they can no longer communicate with the people they're supposed to be sticking up for.
That's not really how I read it. The omnicause adherents are a combination of 2 groups. The first is that small cadre of permanent activist true believers that are a normal part of any democracy (you know, the ones that ran the campus food co-op), some of whom might actually have some sort of harder Marxist or leftist commitments that are in tension with their fellow travelers and the Democratic party more generally. They'll be enthusiastically languishing in some odd, ineffectual non-profit no one has ever heard of for the rest of their lives no matter what, and they'd be doing that no matter who is in charge among the Democrats.
You then have a much larger, more malleable group of over achievers chasing a zeitgeist. They were and remain the upwardly mobile enforcers. But the zeitgeist is changing and their principles were never that strong or coherent to begin with, to say nothing of the tension between their stated beliefs and their goals in life. They're the Biden staffers that staged a walk out over Gaza but then walked back in a few hours later fully expecting to keep their prestigious jobs that they conspicuously did not resign from.
Which isnt to say they haven't engaged in what is IMO the ugliest component of human nature, that being cruelty justified by self righteousness. But for them it's a means to an end, that being their personal advancement in the meritocracy, not an end in itself.
Yup, my fingers are crossed that the whole thing is a repeat of the boobery we had from 2016-2018. Lot of incompetence, lot of chaos, ultimately nothing big or lasting happens. It all sucks but isn't the end of the republic. America plays Russian roulette again and survives. Then again maybe we won't be so lucky this time.
Oh I put odds of that happening at under 5%. Maybe even under 1%.
More likely is a bunch of ham fisted stunts and executive actions caught up in the courts while the Republicans in Congress flail around until muscle memory kicks in and they pass a tax cut.
Trump is way too corrupt and venal to do it but he probably does have an opportunity to 'solve' immigration in a Nixon goes to China kind of way. Ramp up interior enforcement and be really aggressive about it. Have some big show of force at the border involving the military. Send people trudging back into Mexico at gun point and crow about not giving a damn about the wailing of people who had established themselves but never got legal being sent back to wherever. Make everyone at the ACLU, and the immigration lawyers, and the remnant of left twitter/x cry bitter tears about the injustice and fascism of it all.
Then, as soon as it starts encroaching on whatever strategic sector, be it agriculture or whatever else, declare victory. Say I did it! I got rid of the criminals and drug runners and rapists and set things up so they're never coming back! And after that when no one is really paying attention you do a big reform bill with major security investments at the border, mandate e-verify, and amnesty everyone without a felony still in the country illegally.
It'll never happen but it would at least be constructive.
Does anyone look at a pawn like Mike Johnson and think he is capable of setting the tone on anything? That guy looks like the type of person that pays sticker price at a car dealership.
I suppose any real check from the right would come from Thune but color me skeptical. He's a dinosaur, not someone that's going to out maneuver Trump the way McConnell did consistently during Trump 1. The next 2 years are going to be some combination of disaster and farce and the best we can hope for is that it's more the latter than the former.
Sure, I agree, but they vote in state level elections too. It isn't realistic to think you're ever going to get the critical mass of legislators you'd need to turn around and knife their most important, reliable constituents.
As distasteful as it may seem March's is the only theory with a chance of ever succeeding. Now, as I said above, I think we may still be quite some time from getting there, but there is no alternative, other than maybe hoping for a glut of housing as the boomers die off in big numbers over the next 2 or 3 decades.
Never say never. But... Florida is also one of the demographically oldest states in the country. Are its voters ready to turn off the flow of social security checks and Medicare for an ideologically driven secession project? It seems unlikely. Not quite as acute in TX but I'd think it's still a pretty important factor.
One of the weirder contradictions we're facing in Donald Trump's America is that the party of (wildly irresponsible, draconian) budget cuts takes a lot of its support from those currently or close to status as beneficiaries of federal entitlement programs.
Maybe bribe was the wrong word. And you have my vote on the concept. There is a tragedy of the commons aspect to the nexus of school quality, real estate values, and access to lifestyle perks. The best way to blow it up is for the state to find a way to guarantee the losers aren't totally screwed.
What makes me pessimistic that we're anywhere near that point in blue states though is just how much it would take to convince NIMBYs that the hypothetical payoff is better than the benefit they have right now. To give you an example of what I mean, one of my wife and I's favorite games to play when we're driving around here is spot the awkwardly renovated, 1300 square ft cape cod built in the 30s or 40s with an asking price of $800k or more. The house my dad grew up in is like this (shame I wasn't in a place to buy it when him and my uncle offloaded it). This is even more insane in the desirable school districts. The result is a political class that pretends to be saving blighted apartments full of illegal aliens for social justice-y reasons. In actuality they're protecting the interests of those with ancient, grossly over valued property that should be bulldozed for greater numbers of modern, higher density homes.
All this is to say that any scheme will need to convince people that their piece of junk valued at as much as 4 or 5 times what it should be stand a high chance of an even bigger payoff. That is just a really, really hard case to make when theyre already guaranteed enormous value for trash. My guess is that we will not reach a tipping point until a big enough proportion of today's haves are either dead or gone off to Boca Raton.
As for the growing redder states I think it's more likely they will succumb to the same kinds of political pressure the developed blue states did as they peak, rather than being far sighted enough to pre-empt it. Time will tell.
I think you're right that the only way to beat NIMBYism is some sort of elaborate bribe without calling it a bribe. However my sense is that in addition to loss aversion there are underlying political dynamics ensuring this is going to get worse before it gets better. For example it's easier to build in red states for no reason other than a traditional friendliness to moneyed interests, including businesses and developers. But NIMBYism is itself a form of small-c conservatism, and the MAGA movement, while incoherent, strikes me as a lot more skeptical of building and change than a traditional country club Republican that just wants them and their friends to get rich. My guess is they will start to lean more restrictive over time. Meanwhile the Democrats are still in the early stages of their identity crisis. They don't yet understand that they're now the party of the affluent and upwardly mobile, i.e. those who are pinched harder than the renters, if for no reason other than that group expects to own a home one day and achieve at least the type of lifestyle their parents did.
I certainly wouldn't want to be in a deep red state, post Dobbs for my wife's child bearing years, though I believe we are passed those.
However I see it a bit differently. In my adult life I've watched VA go from solidly red, to purple, to leans blue due to a self perpetuating influx into the DC suburbs and to a lesser degree the southeastern part of the state. We've also seen NC and GA become competitive for Democrats, even if previously in play rust belt states like OH and more cosmopolitan FL have fallen out of reach. Which isn't to say Democrats should be complacent. Our political system rightly ensures a fight that will never end. However I think the great sort is something more likely to happen at the county and zip code level, not the state level. There's no neat lines for a civil war. We also might be too old and rich to lay our lives down like that.
Yglesias is regularly beating on this drum and he isn't wrong about it. Maryland doesn't suffer from this stuff on quite the level of an NY or CA but it's got the same kind of dynamic. Quality of life isn't obviously better to the average person, for all of the taxation and high cost of living and the Democrats that govern the state seem broadly disinterested in bigger picture thinking. Governance is really parochial and focused on getting spoils to interest groups in the coalition at the expense of growth. Now that it is easy for me to work remote the only thing really tying me to it is all the friends and family. And the fact that this little state is apparently the only place in the entire country you can get a decent crab cake.
Democrats should work to improve this situation because its the right thing to do but I also am pretty meh on the political consequences. People will take their values with them and turn other, redder places purple or maybe over the long haul blue.
I think that's a truism among us political junkie types but I'm not sure it is to the electorate. I just watched the first 15 or 20 minutes of the Vance interview with Rogan that Jaybird embedded. Now I think Vance is insufferable, a deeply cynical person, and just kind of a jackass.
But he doesn't come off prehistoric at all and certainly not stupid. In the first bit of that interview he's affable, relatable, even a bit thoughtful. This was the first time I've ever listened to Rogan and Vance isn't some masterful politician. But anyone that can't match that performance probably shouldn't be in politics period.
Obviously we're all still in the stage of Monday morning quarterbacking, and in light of how 2016 went I'd expect we will be doing that for the next 4 years and maybe beyond. But even if we assume 'shoot the sh*t in front of millions of potentially undecideds' is beyond her capabilities the professional recommendation is still to try it anyway. Hail Mary's are low percentage plays attempted in games almost certainly already lost and yet you still do it when called for by the circumstances. If her professional staff really made the call based on that rationale none of them should ever work in politics again.
If you are 30 now you were 7 when the towers fell and 9 or 10 when Operation Iraqi Freedom began. If you are 25 now you were 1 or 2 when the towers fell and maybe 4 or 5 during Operation Iraqi Freedom.
Also my hope for the Trump administration is that he renders himself ineffectual by doing things like... nominating Matt Gaetz to be US AG. Obviously TBD but If it creates rifts with the handful of remaining GOP legislators from the before times then even better.
It's going to suck no matter what but I'd rather it sucks in the way that the federal government is chaotic and poorly led than in the way where a GOP trifecta works in lockstep to enacted a bunch of hard to undo policy.
Eh I'm not sure it would have been worse than her decision not to go. Doesn't he regularly have guests on that talk about UFOs and the paranormal and that sort of thing?
My understanding is that like McConnell before him, Thune is not in on the joke. Of course Trump is a lot more powerful as a figure than he was last go round. Maybe someone more familiar with the inner dynamics of the right can give us a prediction on how this is likely to go.
*Comment archive for non-registered commenters assembled by email address as provided.
On “Open Mic for the week of 11/18/2024”
In a way. The natural rejoinder to that though is to ask whether what Trump and the Republicans are likely to do to Medicaid, food stamps, etc. really constitutes 'populism' in any meaningful way.
The question for Democrats is how they've allowed themselves to become so obsessed with niche causes and groups so tiny and marginalized they might not even exist that they can no longer communicate with the people they're supposed to be sticking up for.
"
That's not really how I read it. The omnicause adherents are a combination of 2 groups. The first is that small cadre of permanent activist true believers that are a normal part of any democracy (you know, the ones that ran the campus food co-op), some of whom might actually have some sort of harder Marxist or leftist commitments that are in tension with their fellow travelers and the Democratic party more generally. They'll be enthusiastically languishing in some odd, ineffectual non-profit no one has ever heard of for the rest of their lives no matter what, and they'd be doing that no matter who is in charge among the Democrats.
You then have a much larger, more malleable group of over achievers chasing a zeitgeist. They were and remain the upwardly mobile enforcers. But the zeitgeist is changing and their principles were never that strong or coherent to begin with, to say nothing of the tension between their stated beliefs and their goals in life. They're the Biden staffers that staged a walk out over Gaza but then walked back in a few hours later fully expecting to keep their prestigious jobs that they conspicuously did not resign from.
Which isnt to say they haven't engaged in what is IMO the ugliest component of human nature, that being cruelty justified by self righteousness. But for them it's a means to an end, that being their personal advancement in the meritocracy, not an end in itself.
On “How Republicans Can Save Trump’s Presidency”
Yup, my fingers are crossed that the whole thing is a repeat of the boobery we had from 2016-2018. Lot of incompetence, lot of chaos, ultimately nothing big or lasting happens. It all sucks but isn't the end of the republic. America plays Russian roulette again and survives. Then again maybe we won't be so lucky this time.
"
What's the alternative? Take up arms? I think best we can do now is hope we muddle through the stupidity and craziness to come.
"
Oh I put odds of that happening at under 5%. Maybe even under 1%.
More likely is a bunch of ham fisted stunts and executive actions caught up in the courts while the Republicans in Congress flail around until muscle memory kicks in and they pass a tax cut.
"
Probably also true. You have to be a truly desperate and undignified creature to serve Trump. I can't think of a more disloyal or thankless person.
"
Trump is way too corrupt and venal to do it but he probably does have an opportunity to 'solve' immigration in a Nixon goes to China kind of way. Ramp up interior enforcement and be really aggressive about it. Have some big show of force at the border involving the military. Send people trudging back into Mexico at gun point and crow about not giving a damn about the wailing of people who had established themselves but never got legal being sent back to wherever. Make everyone at the ACLU, and the immigration lawyers, and the remnant of left twitter/x cry bitter tears about the injustice and fascism of it all.
Then, as soon as it starts encroaching on whatever strategic sector, be it agriculture or whatever else, declare victory. Say I did it! I got rid of the criminals and drug runners and rapists and set things up so they're never coming back! And after that when no one is really paying attention you do a big reform bill with major security investments at the border, mandate e-verify, and amnesty everyone without a felony still in the country illegally.
It'll never happen but it would at least be constructive.
"
I think many of the selections are operating as a loyalty test Trump is giving Senate Republicans.
"
Does anyone look at a pawn like Mike Johnson and think he is capable of setting the tone on anything? That guy looks like the type of person that pays sticker price at a car dealership.
I suppose any real check from the right would come from Thune but color me skeptical. He's a dinosaur, not someone that's going to out maneuver Trump the way McConnell did consistently during Trump 1. The next 2 years are going to be some combination of disaster and farce and the best we can hope for is that it's more the latter than the former.
On “Open Mic for the week of 11/11/2024”
I was going to make a joke about how white men struggle hardest with disappointment due to getting their way so often but that would be mean spirited.
I for one hope he finds his way back soon. We need all the perspectives we can get.
"
Sure, I agree, but they vote in state level elections too. It isn't realistic to think you're ever going to get the critical mass of legislators you'd need to turn around and knife their most important, reliable constituents.
As distasteful as it may seem March's is the only theory with a chance of ever succeeding. Now, as I said above, I think we may still be quite some time from getting there, but there is no alternative, other than maybe hoping for a glut of housing as the boomers die off in big numbers over the next 2 or 3 decades.
"
That's pretty tough when the tool they use is called democracy. And they're among the most motivated voters.
"
Never say never. But... Florida is also one of the demographically oldest states in the country. Are its voters ready to turn off the flow of social security checks and Medicare for an ideologically driven secession project? It seems unlikely. Not quite as acute in TX but I'd think it's still a pretty important factor.
One of the weirder contradictions we're facing in Donald Trump's America is that the party of (wildly irresponsible, draconian) budget cuts takes a lot of its support from those currently or close to status as beneficiaries of federal entitlement programs.
"
Maybe bribe was the wrong word. And you have my vote on the concept. There is a tragedy of the commons aspect to the nexus of school quality, real estate values, and access to lifestyle perks. The best way to blow it up is for the state to find a way to guarantee the losers aren't totally screwed.
What makes me pessimistic that we're anywhere near that point in blue states though is just how much it would take to convince NIMBYs that the hypothetical payoff is better than the benefit they have right now. To give you an example of what I mean, one of my wife and I's favorite games to play when we're driving around here is spot the awkwardly renovated, 1300 square ft cape cod built in the 30s or 40s with an asking price of $800k or more. The house my dad grew up in is like this (shame I wasn't in a place to buy it when him and my uncle offloaded it). This is even more insane in the desirable school districts. The result is a political class that pretends to be saving blighted apartments full of illegal aliens for social justice-y reasons. In actuality they're protecting the interests of those with ancient, grossly over valued property that should be bulldozed for greater numbers of modern, higher density homes.
All this is to say that any scheme will need to convince people that their piece of junk valued at as much as 4 or 5 times what it should be stand a high chance of an even bigger payoff. That is just a really, really hard case to make when theyre already guaranteed enormous value for trash. My guess is that we will not reach a tipping point until a big enough proportion of today's haves are either dead or gone off to Boca Raton.
As for the growing redder states I think it's more likely they will succumb to the same kinds of political pressure the developed blue states did as they peak, rather than being far sighted enough to pre-empt it. Time will tell.
"
I think you're right that the only way to beat NIMBYism is some sort of elaborate bribe without calling it a bribe. However my sense is that in addition to loss aversion there are underlying political dynamics ensuring this is going to get worse before it gets better. For example it's easier to build in red states for no reason other than a traditional friendliness to moneyed interests, including businesses and developers. But NIMBYism is itself a form of small-c conservatism, and the MAGA movement, while incoherent, strikes me as a lot more skeptical of building and change than a traditional country club Republican that just wants them and their friends to get rich. My guess is they will start to lean more restrictive over time. Meanwhile the Democrats are still in the early stages of their identity crisis. They don't yet understand that they're now the party of the affluent and upwardly mobile, i.e. those who are pinched harder than the renters, if for no reason other than that group expects to own a home one day and achieve at least the type of lifestyle their parents did.
"
I certainly wouldn't want to be in a deep red state, post Dobbs for my wife's child bearing years, though I believe we are passed those.
However I see it a bit differently. In my adult life I've watched VA go from solidly red, to purple, to leans blue due to a self perpetuating influx into the DC suburbs and to a lesser degree the southeastern part of the state. We've also seen NC and GA become competitive for Democrats, even if previously in play rust belt states like OH and more cosmopolitan FL have fallen out of reach. Which isn't to say Democrats should be complacent. Our political system rightly ensures a fight that will never end. However I think the great sort is something more likely to happen at the county and zip code level, not the state level. There's no neat lines for a civil war. We also might be too old and rich to lay our lives down like that.
"
Yglesias is regularly beating on this drum and he isn't wrong about it. Maryland doesn't suffer from this stuff on quite the level of an NY or CA but it's got the same kind of dynamic. Quality of life isn't obviously better to the average person, for all of the taxation and high cost of living and the Democrats that govern the state seem broadly disinterested in bigger picture thinking. Governance is really parochial and focused on getting spoils to interest groups in the coalition at the expense of growth. Now that it is easy for me to work remote the only thing really tying me to it is all the friends and family. And the fact that this little state is apparently the only place in the entire country you can get a decent crab cake.
Democrats should work to improve this situation because its the right thing to do but I also am pretty meh on the political consequences. People will take their values with them and turn other, redder places purple or maybe over the long haul blue.
On “The Four Stages of Post-election Cruelty”
It's an office that suffers from an odd combination of prominence and lack of official duties or authority, other than breaking ties in the Senate.
On “An Election Map that Asks “What if Only Educated People Voted?” and a Follow-up Question”
I'm not sure that's the right metric. The divide is college and/or trade school. 90% of the population has an HS diploma.
On “Open Mic for the week of 11/11/2024”
I think that's a truism among us political junkie types but I'm not sure it is to the electorate. I just watched the first 15 or 20 minutes of the Vance interview with Rogan that Jaybird embedded. Now I think Vance is insufferable, a deeply cynical person, and just kind of a jackass.
But he doesn't come off prehistoric at all and certainly not stupid. In the first bit of that interview he's affable, relatable, even a bit thoughtful. This was the first time I've ever listened to Rogan and Vance isn't some masterful politician. But anyone that can't match that performance probably shouldn't be in politics period.
"
What about long unserious interviews?
Obviously we're all still in the stage of Monday morning quarterbacking, and in light of how 2016 went I'd expect we will be doing that for the next 4 years and maybe beyond. But even if we assume 'shoot the sh*t in front of millions of potentially undecideds' is beyond her capabilities the professional recommendation is still to try it anyway. Hail Mary's are low percentage plays attempted in games almost certainly already lost and yet you still do it when called for by the circumstances. If her professional staff really made the call based on that rationale none of them should ever work in politics again.
"
If you are 30 now you were 7 when the towers fell and 9 or 10 when Operation Iraqi Freedom began. If you are 25 now you were 1 or 2 when the towers fell and maybe 4 or 5 during Operation Iraqi Freedom.
"
Gotta laugh to keep from crying.
Also my hope for the Trump administration is that he renders himself ineffectual by doing things like... nominating Matt Gaetz to be US AG. Obviously TBD but If it creates rifts with the handful of remaining GOP legislators from the before times then even better.
It's going to suck no matter what but I'd rather it sucks in the way that the federal government is chaotic and poorly led than in the way where a GOP trifecta works in lockstep to enacted a bunch of hard to undo policy.
"
Eh I'm not sure it would have been worse than her decision not to go. Doesn't he regularly have guests on that talk about UFOs and the paranormal and that sort of thing?
"
My understanding is that like McConnell before him, Thune is not in on the joke. Of course Trump is a lot more powerful as a figure than he was last go round. Maybe someone more familiar with the inner dynamics of the right can give us a prediction on how this is likely to go.
*Comment archive for non-registered commenters assembled by email address as provided.