I agree, the books will be written and if Harris loses it's possible that could be one of the titles. And until those books from Bidens famously tight lipped inner circle are written we won't know- heck, even once they're written we won't know exactly until historians balance the whole genre against itself.
More like projection than make believe. We don't know when exactly Biden declined to the point where he was incapable of both being President and running for the job of being President. We know the right was saying it since prior to Biden being elected in 2020 which was patently nonsense. We know Biden reached that point sometime around the time of the debate but prior to that? We don't know and neither do you.
Correct me if I'm mistaken but when the current conservative majority passed Dobbs (after expressly saying in their various appointment hearings that they'd respect precedent but that's just griping) didn't they specifically suggest in their ruling that a national abortion law would pass constitutional muster even as they discarded the idea of a found constitutional right? If so why do you think they'd strike down a national abortion ban? I do suspect they'd probably quite merrily strike down a national codification of Roe.
Yes indeed. China is, of course, another subject. Not so much as a member of such an Axis, exactly, so much as simply the emerging opposite pole of a bipolar global scene and the pole that's more sympathetic to the Russian Axis while having a number of self interested red lines- nuke use for instance where is expects the Axis to toe their line and they have to or else.
I acknowledged we're both speculating on alt history. The point remains that W's speech and subsequent actions on that speech closed off an opportunity for lowering the temperature on that relationship when the Iranians had every reason, at the time, to want that temperature lowered. It was foreign policy malpractice- it had real opportunity costs while gaining us nothing.
That's a lot of assertions of fact that're more opinions and alt-history speculation than actual fact. Saudi Arabia and Iran are pretty much equally hideous and the primary reason the Saudis don't want to upset the applecart while the Iranians do is that the Saudis have a deal with us/the developed world while the Iranians don't (and were never offered one when they had the temerity to throw out the government we chose for them). Had W and his administration not been a passel of chuckleheaded idiots possibly we could have moved Iran more towards a Saudi Arabia state and away from an Iran-of-Now state.
Which brings us back around to Jaybirds point which was that W approached the subject of Iran deontologically rather than in a more transactional manner. I can't know that an attempted deal with Iran would have succeeded in making them engage more productively in the Middle East- that's alt history- but neither can you know that it would have failed. The point is they didn't even try. Yet another example of how catastrophically badly that awful administration handled things.
Yeah that wasn't such a prominent problem in 2002 as it is now. It also bears noting that the Iranians adhered to the (later) nuclear deal until Trump reneged on it. Also we were in Afghanistan and Iraq on either side of Iran- cutting any level of deal with them could have made life a lot easier and they indicated openness to the idea but W and his lackeys wanted an idiotic speech item so we got the Axis of Evil instead. Yet another lump of crap on the wagon full of fecal matter that is neocon reputation in hindsight.
The vibe I've gotten is they're genuinely terrified of pushing the Russians too far and then ending up with some kind of nuke use on their hands. I personally think that fear is overwrought but I also can see even, say, a 10% chance of it making the Administrations hair stand on end. But over all I agree they played it tolerably well but one can always, in hindsight, imagine playing it better.
The Saudi Wahhabi's are evil religious despots and we get along "fine" with them. The Iranians were trying to talk it's entirely conceivable that some level of de-escalation or arrangement could have been achieved- certainly an outcome better than W and his neocon clowns achieved by simply labelling them part of the Axis of Evil. We had, after all, just knocked over Iraq which was a major benefit to Iran. An earlier nuclear deal could have easily been conceivable, any level of de-escalation was at least theoretically possible. Being able to play Iran off the Saudi's and off the Israeli's would have been potentially useful.
Jay beat me to it. A lot of states in that miserable region indulge in that behavior. Arguably Israel is a sponsor of terror too (ironically mostly against the Palestinians and themselves) - they encouraged, funded and propped up Hamas to say nothing of the settlement movement. I never said Iran was ready to join the side of the angels- I said they were nervous and wanted to cut a deal- and got the Axis of Evil idiocy instead.
It bears keeping in mind that historically it didn't have to be this way. The Axis of Evil was, to some degree, a self fulfilling prophecy. Iran, looking askance at the sunni terrorism of 9/11 and their sunni neighbors in Afghanistan and Iraq, quietly put out feelers about peace and W, in one of his many (more than Trump even- I still consider W's administration the most destructive in modern history) historic idiocies, lumped the Iranians into the "Axis of Evil" for their troubles.
I agree! It's entirely possible. That's the quantum torture of our current polling. When the wave function collapses we could discover that the cat is alive, there's a Trump route and it'd be -entirely- within the existing polling margin of error unless it's a landslide loss for Trump.
And I would LOVE for there to be a landslide Harris victory- especially because seeing Nate Silver have to eat a but a la Wang would be funny as heck.
Hey, I am fine with certain amount of hopium but I temper it with gloomium- I don't think I can go into an election optimistically after '16- it might kill me.
Yeah only #3 turns my head, possibly because it aligns with a notion I had that Trump voters who were willing to vote for him already overtly want to vote for him and those who're hesitating/uncertain about voting for Trump will end up breaking away from him.
Still, it's just gonna be an agonizing two weeks and change.
On “The Way Through is Donald Trump for President”
I agree, the books will be written and if Harris loses it's possible that could be one of the titles. And until those books from Bidens famously tight lipped inner circle are written we won't know- heck, even once they're written we won't know exactly until historians balance the whole genre against itself.
"
More like projection than make believe. We don't know when exactly Biden declined to the point where he was incapable of both being President and running for the job of being President. We know the right was saying it since prior to Biden being elected in 2020 which was patently nonsense. We know Biden reached that point sometime around the time of the debate but prior to that? We don't know and neither do you.
On “What If Kamala Wins?”
Correct me if I'm mistaken but when the current conservative majority passed Dobbs (after expressly saying in their various appointment hearings that they'd respect precedent but that's just griping) didn't they specifically suggest in their ruling that a national abortion law would pass constitutional muster even as they discarded the idea of a found constitutional right? If so why do you think they'd strike down a national abortion ban? I do suspect they'd probably quite merrily strike down a national codification of Roe.
On “The Way Through is Donald Trump for President”
Congrats on the editorial Koz, somebody had to do it and I'm glad it was you.
On “Open Mic for the week of 10/21/2024”
Ugh, thanks for ruining my morning cuppa Lee.
On “Ukraine and the Axis of Evil”
Yes indeed. China is, of course, another subject. Not so much as a member of such an Axis, exactly, so much as simply the emerging opposite pole of a bipolar global scene and the pole that's more sympathetic to the Russian Axis while having a number of self interested red lines- nuke use for instance where is expects the Axis to toe their line and they have to or else.
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I hadn't realized quite how deep your neocon sympathies lie in this area I admit. It's refreshing, makes me feel fifteen-twenty years younger!
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I generally agree though China is, in of itself, a pretty complicated subject.
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I acknowledged we're both speculating on alt history. The point remains that W's speech and subsequent actions on that speech closed off an opportunity for lowering the temperature on that relationship when the Iranians had every reason, at the time, to want that temperature lowered. It was foreign policy malpractice- it had real opportunity costs while gaining us nothing.
"
That's a lot of assertions of fact that're more opinions and alt-history speculation than actual fact. Saudi Arabia and Iran are pretty much equally hideous and the primary reason the Saudis don't want to upset the applecart while the Iranians do is that the Saudis have a deal with us/the developed world while the Iranians don't (and were never offered one when they had the temerity to throw out the government we chose for them). Had W and his administration not been a passel of chuckleheaded idiots possibly we could have moved Iran more towards a Saudi Arabia state and away from an Iran-of-Now state.
Which brings us back around to Jaybirds point which was that W approached the subject of Iran deontologically rather than in a more transactional manner. I can't know that an attempted deal with Iran would have succeeded in making them engage more productively in the Middle East- that's alt history- but neither can you know that it would have failed. The point is they didn't even try. Yet another example of how catastrophically badly that awful administration handled things.
"
Agreed but that kind of shimmy regarding Afghanistan and Iraq is the only arrow neocons have left in their quiver.
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Yeah that wasn't such a prominent problem in 2002 as it is now. It also bears noting that the Iranians adhered to the (later) nuclear deal until Trump reneged on it. Also we were in Afghanistan and Iraq on either side of Iran- cutting any level of deal with them could have made life a lot easier and they indicated openness to the idea but W and his lackeys wanted an idiotic speech item so we got the Axis of Evil instead. Yet another lump of crap on the wagon full of fecal matter that is neocon reputation in hindsight.
"
The vibe I've gotten is they're genuinely terrified of pushing the Russians too far and then ending up with some kind of nuke use on their hands. I personally think that fear is overwrought but I also can see even, say, a 10% chance of it making the Administrations hair stand on end. But over all I agree they played it tolerably well but one can always, in hindsight, imagine playing it better.
"
The Saudi Wahhabi's are evil religious despots and we get along "fine" with them. The Iranians were trying to talk it's entirely conceivable that some level of de-escalation or arrangement could have been achieved- certainly an outcome better than W and his neocon clowns achieved by simply labelling them part of the Axis of Evil. We had, after all, just knocked over Iraq which was a major benefit to Iran. An earlier nuclear deal could have easily been conceivable, any level of de-escalation was at least theoretically possible. Being able to play Iran off the Saudi's and off the Israeli's would have been potentially useful.
"
Jay beat me to it. A lot of states in that miserable region indulge in that behavior. Arguably Israel is a sponsor of terror too (ironically mostly against the Palestinians and themselves) - they encouraged, funded and propped up Hamas to say nothing of the settlement movement. I never said Iran was ready to join the side of the angels- I said they were nervous and wanted to cut a deal- and got the Axis of Evil idiocy instead.
"
It bears keeping in mind that historically it didn't have to be this way. The Axis of Evil was, to some degree, a self fulfilling prophecy. Iran, looking askance at the sunni terrorism of 9/11 and their sunni neighbors in Afghanistan and Iraq, quietly put out feelers about peace and W, in one of his many (more than Trump even- I still consider W's administration the most destructive in modern history) historic idiocies, lumped the Iranians into the "Axis of Evil" for their troubles.
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A pretty cogent analysis but left out is the problem that for the war to end both sides need to want it to end and neither side is ready yet.
On “From The Atlantic: Trump: ‘I Need the Kind of Generals That Hitler Had’”
That is deliciously circular- I love it!
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I agree! It's entirely possible. That's the quantum torture of our current polling. When the wave function collapses we could discover that the cat is alive, there's a Trump route and it'd be -entirely- within the existing polling margin of error unless it's a landslide loss for Trump.
And I would LOVE for there to be a landslide Harris victory- especially because seeing Nate Silver have to eat a but a la Wang would be funny as heck.
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Hey, I am fine with certain amount of hopium but I temper it with gloomium- I don't think I can go into an election optimistically after '16- it might kill me.
"
Yup, he gets to be lawless but she has to be flawless. It sucks but seems like the game the media billion-dollar question: do the voters agree?
On “From Semafor: Los Angeles Times won’t endorse for president”
That's a laudable stance- though, being a more centrist dem, I would say that.
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That is impressive.
On “The Election’s Home Stretch”
Yeah only #3 turns my head, possibly because it aligns with a notion I had that Trump voters who were willing to vote for him already overtly want to vote for him and those who're hesitating/uncertain about voting for Trump will end up breaking away from him.
Still, it's just gonna be an agonizing two weeks and change.
On “Campaign Scratchpad: Known Unknowns”
That's my normal haunting grounds for cruising but husbando wanted something new.
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