Being both Black and Female didn't compensate for also being an empty suit who was terrible at running for election.
I found all of the happy talk on how super qualified she was pretty jarring. It sounded similar to how Biden was super competent and not affected by age.
You can't beat something with nothing. Having selected a candidate who is terrible at running for office, you have someone who is terrible at running for office. All of the happy talk about how super qualified she was to be President was somewhat jarring.
I wonder how many Trump voters are motivated by blinding hatred and bigotry...
That's a "you" thing, i.e. "what you want to think", rather than a "them" thing.
For years, there hasn't been enough bigotry to meet demand. Team Blue has tens of thousands of social justice warriors who want to oppose bigotry and racism. Ergo they've needed to invent new forms of bigotry and racism.
That Blue wants villains to oppose doesn't mean other people are obligated to think of themselves as that.
If we need to use "racism" to explain why black men who voted for Obama voted for Trump, then we're doing wishful thinking and we should find a different explanation.
The "weak".
If she's running on "hope and change" then she should be able to say "what changes". If she's running on Biden's record then she should own it and claim that she helped him build it. If she's not then she should be able to say what she'd do differently.
Every time she goes with word salad she's proclaiming that she doesn't know the answer. She should find a better way to dodge questions.
She has extremely limited experience and close to none in leadership or management of large groups. She has no track record of success there. The GOP suggests she spent the last two years hiding in her office playing solitaire and we can't disprove it.
She got no, as in "zero", nomination votes in her run for President. So in the Team Blue field she came in dead last.
After that failed she needed to reinvent herself but we're not sure what she's gone with.
She's not charismatic enough to get Team Red members to vote for her. Obama needing to urge black males to vote for her over Trump is an obvious problem for someone who's big strength is supposedly her identity.
The "unusual".
She didn't go through the nomination process at all. Biden is now unfit(?) but she's leaving him in as President.
Harris and Trump are both so weak/unusual as candidates that the normal models are questionable. Add to that Silverman's statements about battleground polling being a mess and we're deep into "IDK".
So you're claiming that having a terrible candidate makes no difference? Everyone is in one of the camps?
If Obama could run for a third term, would he be doing as badly as Ms. Word-Salad?
For example Obama took something like 95% of Black male voters and Harris is going to do something like 75%.
RE: Trump voters are... just waiting for the right Democrat to come along?
If memory serves, back in 2017 we evaluated the Obama voters who changed their vote to Trump. Claiming that they'd all become racists is fun but imho is jumping the shark.
Does that mean that they're all "Secret Disney Liberals", of course not. No group of any demographic is "all", some are persuadable to your message, many are not.
Everyone has their own motivations. Some are deep into Blue/Red tribalism, others less so.
Before Trump, HRC was the most openly corrupt politician of our generation. Selling pardons, having her own personal "charity" which got donations from entities that she dealt with professionally as SoS.
Trump being able to run against her as the cleaner candidate says a lot.
In 2016 I couldn't vote for either Trump or HRC and cast for whoever the Libertarian was that cycle.
I think I said at the time (maybe not here) that I would have voted for Pete and doing 60 seconds of research on him that looks right.
Whitmer (ironically) I know almost nothing about... oh wait, she took over as I was in the process of moving. NM.
There's a lot to like there. I'm a little disturbed by her getting rid of "right to work" but there's a lot to like there (too many strong points in her favor to list).
Newsom I don't know enough about to rate.
More importantly, I seriously doubt that any of these three would respond to basic questions with word-salad "deer in headlights" ignorance.
So we should expect that their skill in running for office (and their history in leadership, management, and so on) will be much greater than Harris.
Review of the Israeli Conflict from Dan Schueftan.
He's an Israeli academic and chairman of the National Security Studies Center at the University of Haifa.
Schueftan is credited with having advanced the concept of "unilateral disengagement", or "unilateral separation".
We can start with the other Democrats who ran against Hillary.
That's a terrible place to start because she did a good job at keeping the field bare of serious people.
About half of the States have Team Blue governors. Pick the most Charismatic and successful and you're probably done right there.
That algorithm gives you leadership experience, management experience, campaign experience, and electability in addition to whatever else he brings to the table.
Oh, and it doesn't need to be "current" so it's more than just those 25.
Not much to be done about the second–it took a lot to force Biden out/make him realize he had to drop.
That's because Blue has been lying about Biden's lack of mental decline for probably years. Everyone who interacts with him on a normal basis must have known this.
What was necessary to force him out was the American public had to see that he really was in serious decline.
I don’t see any evidence Harris is really bad at running besides the fact that she’s not polling way ahead of Trump,
Word salad. No clue how to answer basic questions (what will you do on day one, what would you change from what Biden is doing). No grand plan or even detail on whether she's running for 4 more years or "hope and change".
Biden is so mentally infirm that he can't run but she's fine with him being President because she doesn't want to own any responsibility.
I'm not sure what she's supposed to be after "generic Blue who is a black woman and not Trump".
Trump is awful but you can't beat something with nothing and my never-Trump friends are having to seriously reconsider Trump because they can't see anything there.
can you conjure up some alternative timeline in which Trump is relegated to a footnote, a laughingstock marginal candidate that no one needs take seriously?
1) HRC doesn't run on "it's my turn" and instead Team Blue gets a serious candidate.
This was the second time she got blown out of the water by a political new comer, the first time should have taught you she's really bad at running.
2) Harris doesn't get the nod by skipping the entire primary system, and instead Team Blue gets a serious candidate.
Her previous run netted her a total of zero primary votes (meaning everyone beat her and she came in dead last), that should have taught you she's really bad at running.
We don't tax people based on wealth for good reason. It's highly questionable whether it's possible to have a wealth tax which generates more tax dollars than it costs to run. That low bar ignores the level of damage done to the economy by having it.
Fundamentally you're claiming Bezos shouldn't be allowed to build Amazon. That there should be an upper limit to how successful someone is allowed to be and how much good they can create in the economy.
My poll doesn't match everyone else's, ergo there is a good chance that I'm wrong and everyone else is right. Of course that approach fails wildly if everyone is doing the same thing but hopefully at least a few are doing their job.
"Any" is a big word. However in his first election he used this language a lot more and dropped it (and told his followers to drop it) the moment he was elected. This time he seems even less serious.
If we're looking for "gov oppression between Team Red and Team Blue" then the big example is Blue repeatedly trying to arrest Trump.
There are strong arguments he deserves it, however to someone who lacks details it looks like Blue is more repressive than Red.
In addition, Blue's cult of DEI took over colleges (including having all Professors in all disciplines swear allegiance to it and talk about how they'll be furthering it).
We also have Blue Media claiming Joe was fit as a fiddle, presumably out of fear that pointing out the obvious would cause problems.
A commitment to actual free/liberal society would mean goring a number of Blue's sacred cows.
How many GOP candidates have been accused of these things? All of them?
What has happened is Team Blue's "purity police" where everyone in their way is Hit.ler has resulted in someone who is comfortable with false accusations.
Trump constantly spins up false accusations until nothing against him is believed.
So Blue claims Trump is an anti-Semite in the face of his daughter and grandchildren being Jews and his strong support for Israel.
For claims of his racism you're bringing out housing lawsuits from the 1970s(?).
Since Team Red and Team Undecided have heard these sorts of claims many, many times before, they're totally discounted and ignored.
You can't beat something with nothing. Harris is running on raw charisma, being a black woman, hope and change (in spite of being in charge), not being Trump, and word salad.
It's possible that not being Trump will be enough, I voted for her because of that. However she's so bad that in Blue's last serious primary she got zero votes.
The actual way to do this would have been for Biden to step down as being unfit and let her run as President. That would eliminate a lot of the contradictions in our current situation and give her a chance to look Presidential.
*Comment archive for non-registered commenters assembled by email address as provided.
On “History Was Made in 2024 Election, Now What?”
Being both Black and Female didn't compensate for also being an empty suit who was terrible at running for election.
I found all of the happy talk on how super qualified she was pretty jarring. It sounded similar to how Biden was super competent and not affected by age.
On “2024 Election Day Live Stream, Reaction, Open Thread”
You can't beat something with nothing. Having selected a candidate who is terrible at running for office, you have someone who is terrible at running for office. All of the happy talk about how super qualified she was to be President was somewhat jarring.
Pick a governor next time.
"
I wonder how many Trump voters are motivated by blinding hatred and bigotry...
That's a "you" thing, i.e. "what you want to think", rather than a "them" thing.
For years, there hasn't been enough bigotry to meet demand. Team Blue has tens of thousands of social justice warriors who want to oppose bigotry and racism. Ergo they've needed to invent new forms of bigotry and racism.
That Blue wants villains to oppose doesn't mean other people are obligated to think of themselves as that.
If we need to use "racism" to explain why black men who voted for Obama voted for Trump, then we're doing wishful thinking and we should find a different explanation.
On “The Joy Of Opening Time Capsules: The Night Before the 2024 Presidential Election”
The "weak".
If she's running on "hope and change" then she should be able to say "what changes". If she's running on Biden's record then she should own it and claim that she helped him build it. If she's not then she should be able to say what she'd do differently.
Every time she goes with word salad she's proclaiming that she doesn't know the answer. She should find a better way to dodge questions.
She has extremely limited experience and close to none in leadership or management of large groups. She has no track record of success there. The GOP suggests she spent the last two years hiding in her office playing solitaire and we can't disprove it.
She got no, as in "zero", nomination votes in her run for President. So in the Team Blue field she came in dead last.
After that failed she needed to reinvent herself but we're not sure what she's gone with.
She's not charismatic enough to get Team Red members to vote for her. Obama needing to urge black males to vote for her over Trump is an obvious problem for someone who's big strength is supposedly her identity.
The "unusual".
She didn't go through the nomination process at all. Biden is now unfit(?) but she's leaving him in as President.
"
Harris and Trump are both so weak/unusual as candidates that the normal models are questionable. Add to that Silverman's statements about battleground polling being a mess and we're deep into "IDK".
On “Open Mic for the week of 10/28/2024”
Biden has called for restraint, Trump has not. Trump has said he thinks Israel hasn't gone far enough.
"
I’m claiming that “candidate quality” has only a very marginal effect...
I disagree. Candidate quality is why Obama won and HRC lost.
If Harris loses, in part it will be because the people who voted for Obama won't vote for her. That's the same reason why HRC lost.
Of course in a close election everything is decisive.
"
So you're claiming that having a terrible candidate makes no difference? Everyone is in one of the camps?
If Obama could run for a third term, would he be doing as badly as Ms. Word-Salad?
For example Obama took something like 95% of Black male voters and Harris is going to do something like 75%.
RE: Trump voters are... just waiting for the right Democrat to come along?
If memory serves, back in 2017 we evaluated the Obama voters who changed their vote to Trump. Claiming that they'd all become racists is fun but imho is jumping the shark.
Does that mean that they're all "Secret Disney Liberals", of course not. No group of any demographic is "all", some are persuadable to your message, many are not.
Everyone has their own motivations. Some are deep into Blue/Red tribalism, others less so.
"
Harris & HRC are both really bad at running and they both managed to tie Trump.
Having a much better candidate implies doing better.
"
Bill did the actual pardon. HRC accepted the money. Marc Rich's ex-wife was the one who paid the money. Rich was the one who benefited.
There was no reason for the pardon except the money. There was no reason for the money except the pardon.
They managed to structure everything so it wasn't provably illegal in court.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marc_Rich#U.S._indictment_and_pardon
"
Before Trump, HRC was the most openly corrupt politician of our generation. Selling pardons, having her own personal "charity" which got donations from entities that she dealt with professionally as SoS.
Trump being able to run against her as the cleaner candidate says a lot.
In 2016 I couldn't vote for either Trump or HRC and cast for whoever the Libertarian was that cycle.
I think I said at the time (maybe not here) that I would have voted for Pete and doing 60 seconds of research on him that looks right.
Whitmer (ironically) I know almost nothing about... oh wait, she took over as I was in the process of moving. NM.
There's a lot to like there. I'm a little disturbed by her getting rid of "right to work" but there's a lot to like there (too many strong points in her favor to list).
Newsom I don't know enough about to rate.
More importantly, I seriously doubt that any of these three would respond to basic questions with word-salad "deer in headlights" ignorance.
So we should expect that their skill in running for office (and their history in leadership, management, and so on) will be much greater than Harris.
"
Review of the Israeli Conflict from Dan Schueftan.
He's an Israeli academic and chairman of the National Security Studies Center at the University of Haifa.
Schueftan is credited with having advanced the concept of "unilateral disengagement", or "unilateral separation".
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VH3-h44VRrQ
"
We can start with the other Democrats who ran against Hillary.
That's a terrible place to start because she did a good job at keeping the field bare of serious people.
About half of the States have Team Blue governors. Pick the most Charismatic and successful and you're probably done right there.
That algorithm gives you leadership experience, management experience, campaign experience, and electability in addition to whatever else he brings to the table.
Oh, and it doesn't need to be "current" so it's more than just those 25.
"
Not much to be done about the second–it took a lot to force Biden out/make him realize he had to drop.
That's because Blue has been lying about Biden's lack of mental decline for probably years. Everyone who interacts with him on a normal basis must have known this.
What was necessary to force him out was the American public had to see that he really was in serious decline.
I don’t see any evidence Harris is really bad at running besides the fact that she’s not polling way ahead of Trump,
Word salad. No clue how to answer basic questions (what will you do on day one, what would you change from what Biden is doing). No grand plan or even detail on whether she's running for 4 more years or "hope and change".
Biden is so mentally infirm that he can't run but she's fine with him being President because she doesn't want to own any responsibility.
I'm not sure what she's supposed to be after "generic Blue who is a black woman and not Trump".
Trump is awful but you can't beat something with nothing and my never-Trump friends are having to seriously reconsider Trump because they can't see anything there.
"
can you conjure up some alternative timeline in which Trump is relegated to a footnote, a laughingstock marginal candidate that no one needs take seriously?
1) HRC doesn't run on "it's my turn" and instead Team Blue gets a serious candidate.
This was the second time she got blown out of the water by a political new comer, the first time should have taught you she's really bad at running.
2) Harris doesn't get the nod by skipping the entire primary system, and instead Team Blue gets a serious candidate.
Her previous run netted her a total of zero primary votes (meaning everyone beat her and she came in dead last), that should have taught you she's really bad at running.
"
Most people's tolerance for disorder isn't very high.
"
Might be similar to what I'm seeing from Palestinian activists. Team Blue isn't making things better so might as well try the other side.
I guess I respect that thinking although I think the Palestinian activists' expectations and description of what is going on are somewhat faulty.
On “The Way Through is Donald Trump for President”
We don't tax people based on wealth for good reason. It's highly questionable whether it's possible to have a wealth tax which generates more tax dollars than it costs to run. That low bar ignores the level of damage done to the economy by having it.
Fundamentally you're claiming Bezos shouldn't be allowed to build Amazon. That there should be an upper limit to how successful someone is allowed to be and how much good they can create in the economy.
On “Open Mic for the week of 10/28/2024”
My poll doesn't match everyone else's, ergo there is a good chance that I'm wrong and everyone else is right. Of course that approach fails wildly if everyone is doing the same thing but hopefully at least a few are doing their job.
"
"Any" is a big word. However in his first election he used this language a lot more and dropped it (and told his followers to drop it) the moment he was elected. This time he seems even less serious.
"
If we're looking for "gov oppression between Team Red and Team Blue" then the big example is Blue repeatedly trying to arrest Trump.
There are strong arguments he deserves it, however to someone who lacks details it looks like Blue is more repressive than Red.
In addition, Blue's cult of DEI took over colleges (including having all Professors in all disciplines swear allegiance to it and talk about how they'll be furthering it).
We also have Blue Media claiming Joe was fit as a fiddle, presumably out of fear that pointing out the obvious would cause problems.
A commitment to actual free/liberal society would mean goring a number of Blue's sacred cows.
"
So how is HRC doing in prison? He ran, for a long time, on "Lock her up". That was a lot more serious than this.
RE: Mass deportations
Pretty sure he'll try this.
"
I listened to his speech and I didn't think he was serious anymore than Obama was serious about bringing firearms to political fights.
This is an example of Blue's hysteria and not Trump's foulness.
On “The Way Through is Donald Trump for President”
I'm responding to Chip's narrative "everyone who votes for Trump is a racist".
And if the election really is a dead heat tie, then 1.425% will be one of the deciding factors.
If they voted for Harris in the same numbers that they voted for Obama, she could coast to victory.
On “Open Mic for the week of 10/28/2024”
How many GOP candidates have been accused of these things? All of them?
What has happened is Team Blue's "purity police" where everyone in their way is Hit.ler has resulted in someone who is comfortable with false accusations.
Trump constantly spins up false accusations until nothing against him is believed.
So Blue claims Trump is an anti-Semite in the face of his daughter and grandchildren being Jews and his strong support for Israel.
For claims of his racism you're bringing out housing lawsuits from the 1970s(?).
Since Team Red and Team Undecided have heard these sorts of claims many, many times before, they're totally discounted and ignored.
You can't beat something with nothing. Harris is running on raw charisma, being a black woman, hope and change (in spite of being in charge), not being Trump, and word salad.
It's possible that not being Trump will be enough, I voted for her because of that. However she's so bad that in Blue's last serious primary she got zero votes.
The actual way to do this would have been for Biden to step down as being unfit and let her run as President. That would eliminate a lot of the contradictions in our current situation and give her a chance to look Presidential.
*Comment archive for non-registered commenters assembled by email address as provided.