There won’t be any real evidence, of course, but they’ll “find” something to carry the lies forward. Other red states are making noises about doing the same. Trump remains a millstone.
Ok, and then what?
Is the Arizona legislature, one house of it even, going to pass a resolution that says that according to their election audit, Trump really should have won? I very much doubt it. And what would it accomplish if they did?
No, I think Trump is less consequential now than he was at any time since, say September 2015, and losing salience every day. Out of sight, out of mind, like I mentioned before.
Also, a significant part of the Trump mythology was that he wins. Well, he lost. Even if somehow he blowhards his way to convincing grassroots Republicans that he "should have" won, it doesn't help that much. He still lost, Biden is President.
Again, it's possible you might know more than I do, but I see the situation maybe a bit simpler than you do. Ie, the Arizona Republicans are the worst state party in America, at least for our team. In fact, they remind me quite a bit of the Labour Party in the UK, wherein the real motivations are for fighting intraparty battles.
As far as they other stuff goes, I expect 2022 cycle to be very good for the GOP, including the West, maybe even especially the West, for a lot of reasons but one big one which to my surprise has flown under radar for the most part.
GOP is going to recover a lot of Romney-ite, upper middle class white-collar white voters all over America. They were turned off by Trump, and now Trump is gone and so a bunch of them are going back to GOP. I just don't buy the idea that those voters are going to be afraid Trump is "really" controlling the GOP when basically he's been minding his own business and holding court at his golf club in Florida.
The long-term reasons why you're bullish for the Demos in the interior West may hold water, but I don't think they are going to carry the day in 2022, for the reasons I wrote above.
If I were going to say anything in favor of the Demos, I'd say they're hope is that in the interior Western states, the GOP will be perceived as aligned with the ag and mining interests in those states, and the Demos are aligned with the rest of wherever. Over time, the GOP interests will be getting weaker and the Demo interests will be getting stronger. For that matter, even in the coastal West, the Demos are aligned with the coast, and the GOP is aligned with the inland parts.
That may be basically a restatement of your own pov, idk for sure. In any event, it is a real long-term hope for the Demos. I don't think it's any kind of destiny.
A state legislature embracing Trump’s lies about its election proves that Trump is irrelevant? Sure it does.
Well yeah. The Arizona audit which was, according to Michael Cain (and everybody else), intended to showcase widespread fraud against the Trump campaign in Arizona, in fact has failed to produce any such evidence so far.
In other words, the Trump enthusiast faction of Arizona Republicans are spinning their wheels.
Ok. I'm not following the Arizona thing very closely but it seems to support the idea that Trump is irrelevant better than the opposite. I'm not sure what they're supposed to do or find (or fail at) to lead us to believe otherwise.
Not really, he's more of an obstacle to be maneuvered around, and a manageable obstacle at that. Don't repudiate him, don't embarrass him, don't gratuitously piss him off. Otherwise, ignore him.
For incumbent GOP politicians especially, Trump is becoming less relevant every day.
Basically the only meaningful actions Trump has left is his ability to endorse (or not endorse) non-incumbent GOP politicians in competitive primaries. That's not nothing, but it's also not very much either.
In any event I'm completely not bought into the general principle wherein we find just the right One Weird Trick and Trump will be gone forever. The thing that's going to get rid of Trump is that he's not President, and he's not really dialed in to whatever narrative is going on, and he's not on social media. In other words, exactly what's going on already.
Actually, kinda like how the libs are thinking of their One Weird Trick where Manchin and the Demos are getting rid of the filibuster, and that ain't happening either. Though, tbh it's probably more rational for them, 'cuz it's still probably their best hope.
The best thing for the country, and definitely the best thing for the GOP, would be for someone to find a hand-written note that says “Don says Go 1:45 NE Cap entrance”.
Yeah, no. What would it buy the Demos if there were such a note, and the Demos had it? Not very much it seems to me.
Not very much for several reasons, many of which I suspect are going to play out anyway, as I expect the Demos to have hearings in the House that are going to be more or less inconsequential.
Yeah, but no. If we "really" were to find out everything, it'd turn out to be some measure spontaneous, some measure Proud Boys/Oathkeepers types, some measure Steve Bannon and the like, some measure GOP politicos like Marjorie Taylor Greene and Lauren Boebert.
Doesn't change anything, doesn't affect anything. Not important.
Yeah, this is a weird political environment. In times past, sometimes there's a dynamic of "inside baseball" against the relatively apolitical bulk of America. But this is both ends against the middle, an alignment I haven't seen before.
The good people are winning the inside game (politicos inside the Capitol) and the outside game (rest of America outside Washington) but the libs are cleaning up in the middle, dominating the media message environment.
So far, our team looks to have way the better of it, because even if libs can control the news cycle, they can't energize or intimidate anyone with it, though they are trying mightily. You gotta hand it to the lib media/Twitter punditocracy for energy. My guess is, the probability the GOP wins this election cycle is somewhere over 90%. Even so, I don't think you can right now completely count the libs out.
Phil's comment is a useful case in point. Libs have created an unspoken premise that "Of course the worst terrorist attack in American history must be thoroughly investigated" blah blah blah. In reality, that's just not so. I don't even know what substance libs supposedly want to find in out in the course of this commissions proceedings. They've already had Impeachment Pt 2 and there's piles of criminal cases still to be resolved. And there's less and less juice behind their complaints as time goes by.
What libs really want, of course, is to sit around and bitch about "Insurrection!" all day. Well, libs can do that on their own time.
The "Big Lie" is irrelevant, that's how it looks to me. Libs want to turn the crank on it to make some political juice, but they haven't done it yet. I don't expect they are going to in the future. The bitching about this independent commission is stupid. Push comes to shove, Demo's don't need us anyway. They can simply take a new or existing committee, in either chamber, and start calling witnesses.
What libs can't do, that they need, is make Real Americans care about January 6 if they weren't predisposed to already, and so far at least, they're not.
This puts Demo's in Congress in a weird timing dilemma. They have a year and a month, a year and two, maybe, to legislate before campaign season takes over, GOP takes over the House and maybe the Senate, and libs get jack shit.
So, how _should_ Demo's be spending that year? Hard to say, really. There is a train of thought behind the January 6 thing. Politically embarrass or immobilize GOP with "Insurrection!!!" argle-bargle and then once GOP is weak, they push through HR1, DC statehood and the rest of it. But no. Demo's try that, then the Real Americans sez, "Silly rabbit, Trix are for kids!" and libs go away with their tail between their legs. Certainly libs got nothing from Impeachment #2, and January 6 is further ago now than then.
But what is the alternative? Libs are upset at small-ish top line dollar figures in the GOP infrastructure counteroffers. For some values of lib, it would be horribly embarrassing if the Demo's actually cut a deal with the GOP at those numbers. But probably their best course of action is to do it anyway, then try for another bite at the apple through reconciliation.
That's probably the most they can accomplish in terms of policy, and minimizes butthurt for the lib base. Most likely, libs are going to have to internalize and react somehow to the reality that they don't have the votes they think they have.
Coming soon to a rally near you, former president Trump is expected to hit the road again, and has made no secret that his priority aside from his own designs is to get revenge on any Republican that voted against him in certifying the 2020 election, the second impeachment, and various other slights real and perceived
Great. Former President Trump is a private citizen now, let's see what he's got. I've been wrong about Trump before, but I'm not buyin' this idea "GOP is all about ex-President Trump." The people who believe this are woefully underestimating the different between President Trump and ex-President Trump as it pertains to his stature in the party.
Uh uh. Libs got plenty of time, they just have a deficit of votes.
Manchin is the flashpoint, but he's not the only obstacle to passing the libs wishlist in the Senate, not even the most meaningful for some of the items. Manchin and Sinema take the heat, but there are probably at least a half dozen others who want to see the lib agenda items die.
You can see this in the infrastructure bill(s), which are going nowhere at the moment, and that's the easiest lift of anything the D's have on the to-do list.
If I had to guess I'd say the Senate will get something done on infrastructure before midterms, but even there it's 50/50 they'll need or have GOP votes, which for the libs is almost as bad as a loss, maybe even worse.
If they do get infrastructure done in the Senate by 51-50, clearly they'll be closing up shop after that.
The only thing “vulnerable” about the Biden position on immigration is its based in reality. Color me unimpressed that it will be a millstone.
As to public schools – sure some systems in some blue cities are not reopened fully yet, but they will all be so by this fall. Which means grumbling will likely be local, not national, and largely done by the time people step into the 2022 primary booths.
If the D’s loose the House it will be in the 5 vote range, and more likely because of Census redistricting – and a healthy dose of Republican voter suppression – then anything else.
Uh uh. This is simply lib feelgood rationalization for continuing to stick with President Biden, and the sell-by date for that is coming quicker that you want.
Basically, looking at the probabilities for meaningful policy agenda until midterms, it's probably a third nothing, a third GOP-supported infrastructure infrastructure, a third at least some amount of Demo "___ is infrastructure" infrastructure.
IOW, very little chance of anything the libhaters really want. No HR1, no DC or PR statehood, no VRA, no SCOTUS, nothing on climate change/fossil fuels beyond what's been done already. Nothing for the Palestinians, probably restoring the status quo ante on the Iran deal.
You might know better than I would, 'cuz you'r a lib and I'm not, but I'm not expecting libs to hang around and be good team players when and if the GOP starts handing out L's to the Biden Administration. If it were Obama, it would be all about "GOP is sooo racist" but for Biden I don't think so. They'll feel like they already put in a fair shift keeping it together through the general election campaign. They're through taking one for the team, it will up to the rest of the party/coalition to keep them happy, and if they don't, they'll take the ball and go home.
That, and other factors I mentioned above (and some I didn't mention), means it's likely the good people will have a good election in 2022.
I don't think this is right, that is the premise that the Demo's problems are reducible to messaging and framing.
MIcroaggressions are a perfect case in point. As Kazzy comments above, libs didn't come up with this concept out of thin air. To them, the idea represents a grievance that they want redress for, by this or that.
The problem for Demo's is not just that the word is unfamiliar to grass-roots ex-Demo's. The ex-Demo's are not at all bought into the concept that the word is supposed to be shorthand for. And if, somehow, this idea was made crystal clear for them, it's at least as likely as not that they would be opposing the libs theory of anyway. If, of course, they cared enough to make sure they understood the idea with perfect clarity anyway, which, of course, they don't.
At this point, there's probably just as much reason to believe that the lib/Demo coalition is overperforming as the opposite, given the internal tensions among the people involved.
1. It is a heavy dose of right-wing media nutpicking to take the “faculty lounge” speak crowd and make them the voice of the Democratic Party. Joe Biden doesn’t speak like that. Kamala Harris doesn’t speak like that. Actual faculty member Elizabeth Warren does not speak like that.
2. The connection between the “faculty lounge” crowd and the Democratic Party is not an overlap, many of the faculty lounge crowd dislike the Democratic Party for being too moderate or too conservative.
Yeah, this ain't right. If there is really going to be any meaningful separation between the faculty lounge activist crowd and the grass-roots ex-Demo voters, the faculty lounge crowd is going to have be Souljahed, and that plainly hasn't happened in ages.
3. All of this ignores that the Democratic Party received more vote than the Republican Party in past election cycles.
4. The GOP has “had this pat since Reagan” is a strong tell. The GOP of Reagan is dead, now is the GOP of Trump which is doing a lot to alienate and isolate suburban moderates because of its heroin-levels of addiction to owning the libs and drooling at Tucker Carlson’s white power hour.
And I don't think this is right either. In fact, this actually is very relevant to the main theme of the midterms, which is about how big is the GOP post-election majority in the House. I expect the GOP to win majority control regardless, but in practical terms there is a huge difference between having a 5 seat majority and a 35 seat majority. And which is which will largely be determined by the suburbs.
The GOP has been losing upper-middle class white-collar white professionals for a long time now, but the Trump years were especially bad. But, now that Trump is gone, I expect a good number of those to revert to the GOP.
Think about this. Suppose you were a suburban professional who supported the GOP in 2004 or 2014, enthusiastically even, and then voted Demo and/or changed voter registration at some time since then. Why should you continue to support the Demo's now?
Lib/resistance people like to squawk "Charlottesville, Insurrection!!!!" but tbh I don't think any of that will have very much traction come the midterms, or later.
I don't expect the issue mix to be favorable to the Demo's by then. They will be very vulnerable on immigration, and closed public schools, the latter especially important for key parts of the Demo base. Add that up with the usual structural complaints from the libs, I'm expecting a very bad election day for the D's in 2022.
On “Senate Republicans Successfully Block January 6th Commission”
Ok, and then what?
Is the Arizona legislature, one house of it even, going to pass a resolution that says that according to their election audit, Trump really should have won? I very much doubt it. And what would it accomplish if they did?
No, I think Trump is less consequential now than he was at any time since, say September 2015, and losing salience every day. Out of sight, out of mind, like I mentioned before.
Also, a significant part of the Trump mythology was that he wins. Well, he lost. Even if somehow he blowhards his way to convincing grassroots Republicans that he "should have" won, it doesn't help that much. He still lost, Biden is President.
"
Again, it's possible you might know more than I do, but I see the situation maybe a bit simpler than you do. Ie, the Arizona Republicans are the worst state party in America, at least for our team. In fact, they remind me quite a bit of the Labour Party in the UK, wherein the real motivations are for fighting intraparty battles.
As far as they other stuff goes, I expect 2022 cycle to be very good for the GOP, including the West, maybe even especially the West, for a lot of reasons but one big one which to my surprise has flown under radar for the most part.
GOP is going to recover a lot of Romney-ite, upper middle class white-collar white voters all over America. They were turned off by Trump, and now Trump is gone and so a bunch of them are going back to GOP. I just don't buy the idea that those voters are going to be afraid Trump is "really" controlling the GOP when basically he's been minding his own business and holding court at his golf club in Florida.
The long-term reasons why you're bullish for the Demos in the interior West may hold water, but I don't think they are going to carry the day in 2022, for the reasons I wrote above.
If I were going to say anything in favor of the Demos, I'd say they're hope is that in the interior Western states, the GOP will be perceived as aligned with the ag and mining interests in those states, and the Demos are aligned with the rest of wherever. Over time, the GOP interests will be getting weaker and the Demo interests will be getting stronger. For that matter, even in the coastal West, the Demos are aligned with the coast, and the GOP is aligned with the inland parts.
That may be basically a restatement of your own pov, idk for sure. In any event, it is a real long-term hope for the Demos. I don't think it's any kind of destiny.
"
A state legislature embracing Trump’s lies about its election proves that Trump is irrelevant? Sure it does.
Well yeah. The Arizona audit which was, according to Michael Cain (and everybody else), intended to showcase widespread fraud against the Trump campaign in Arizona, in fact has failed to produce any such evidence so far.
In other words, the Trump enthusiast faction of Arizona Republicans are spinning their wheels.
"
Ok. I'm not following the Arizona thing very closely but it seems to support the idea that Trump is irrelevant better than the opposite. I'm not sure what they're supposed to do or find (or fail at) to lead us to believe otherwise.
It's sorta like this Jan 6 commission tbh.
"
I can _maybe_ guess at this, but you should probably restate or edit.
"
Not really, he's more of an obstacle to be maneuvered around, and a manageable obstacle at that. Don't repudiate him, don't embarrass him, don't gratuitously piss him off. Otherwise, ignore him.
For incumbent GOP politicians especially, Trump is becoming less relevant every day.
Basically the only meaningful actions Trump has left is his ability to endorse (or not endorse) non-incumbent GOP politicians in competitive primaries. That's not nothing, but it's also not very much either.
"
Would it really though? I'm not so sure even.
In any event I'm completely not bought into the general principle wherein we find just the right One Weird Trick and Trump will be gone forever. The thing that's going to get rid of Trump is that he's not President, and he's not really dialed in to whatever narrative is going on, and he's not on social media. In other words, exactly what's going on already.
Actually, kinda like how the libs are thinking of their One Weird Trick where Manchin and the Demos are getting rid of the filibuster, and that ain't happening either. Though, tbh it's probably more rational for them, 'cuz it's still probably their best hope.
"
Trump? Some god-king. Didn't even vote for him.
"
Okay. Go ahead and connect some dots if you want to. Even if they really do connect, you've still got nothin'.
I think it was David Frum who complained shortly after Jan 6, "You'll be shocked at how much this didn't happen" and I think he's probably right.
"
Yeah, no. What would it buy the Demos if there were such a note, and the Demos had it? Not very much it seems to me.
Not very much for several reasons, many of which I suspect are going to play out anyway, as I expect the Demos to have hearings in the House that are going to be more or less inconsequential.
"
Yeah, but no. If we "really" were to find out everything, it'd turn out to be some measure spontaneous, some measure Proud Boys/Oathkeepers types, some measure Steve Bannon and the like, some measure GOP politicos like Marjorie Taylor Greene and Lauren Boebert.
Doesn't change anything, doesn't affect anything. Not important.
"
Yeah, this is a weird political environment. In times past, sometimes there's a dynamic of "inside baseball" against the relatively apolitical bulk of America. But this is both ends against the middle, an alignment I haven't seen before.
The good people are winning the inside game (politicos inside the Capitol) and the outside game (rest of America outside Washington) but the libs are cleaning up in the middle, dominating the media message environment.
So far, our team looks to have way the better of it, because even if libs can control the news cycle, they can't energize or intimidate anyone with it, though they are trying mightily. You gotta hand it to the lib media/Twitter punditocracy for energy. My guess is, the probability the GOP wins this election cycle is somewhere over 90%. Even so, I don't think you can right now completely count the libs out.
Phil's comment is a useful case in point. Libs have created an unspoken premise that "Of course the worst terrorist attack in American history must be thoroughly investigated" blah blah blah. In reality, that's just not so. I don't even know what substance libs supposedly want to find in out in the course of this commissions proceedings. They've already had Impeachment Pt 2 and there's piles of criminal cases still to be resolved. And there's less and less juice behind their complaints as time goes by.
What libs really want, of course, is to sit around and bitch about "Insurrection!" all day. Well, libs can do that on their own time.
On “Past is Prologue: January 6th Commission Edition”
Lolz. I wrote it, as such it is now frozen in the Internet Amber. We'll see soon enough that it happened just like I said (or not).
"
Can somebody un-moderate me please?
"
The "Big Lie" is irrelevant, that's how it looks to me. Libs want to turn the crank on it to make some political juice, but they haven't done it yet. I don't expect they are going to in the future. The bitching about this independent commission is stupid. Push comes to shove, Demo's don't need us anyway. They can simply take a new or existing committee, in either chamber, and start calling witnesses.
What libs can't do, that they need, is make Real Americans care about January 6 if they weren't predisposed to already, and so far at least, they're not.
This puts Demo's in Congress in a weird timing dilemma. They have a year and a month, a year and two, maybe, to legislate before campaign season takes over, GOP takes over the House and maybe the Senate, and libs get jack shit.
So, how _should_ Demo's be spending that year? Hard to say, really. There is a train of thought behind the January 6 thing. Politically embarrass or immobilize GOP with "Insurrection!!!" argle-bargle and then once GOP is weak, they push through HR1, DC statehood and the rest of it. But no. Demo's try that, then the Real Americans sez, "Silly rabbit, Trix are for kids!" and libs go away with their tail between their legs. Certainly libs got nothing from Impeachment #2, and January 6 is further ago now than then.
But what is the alternative? Libs are upset at small-ish top line dollar figures in the GOP infrastructure counteroffers. For some values of lib, it would be horribly embarrassing if the Demo's actually cut a deal with the GOP at those numbers. But probably their best course of action is to do it anyway, then try for another bite at the apple through reconciliation.
That's probably the most they can accomplish in terms of policy, and minimizes butthurt for the lib base. Most likely, libs are going to have to internalize and react somehow to the reality that they don't have the votes they think they have.
"
Great. Former President Trump is a private citizen now, let's see what he's got. I've been wrong about Trump before, but I'm not buyin' this idea "GOP is all about ex-President Trump." The people who believe this are woefully underestimating the different between President Trump and ex-President Trump as it pertains to his stature in the party.
On “Democrats Have a Problem, But It’s Not the One You Think”
And this:
https://twitter.com/EsotericCD/status/1388665603007909889
"
Let's throw this out here before it's forgotten.
https://twitter.com/EsotericCD/status/1388677554333274115
"
Great, that appropriation will be fresh on the statue books as the GOP takes over Congress.
"
Uh uh. Libs got plenty of time, they just have a deficit of votes.
Manchin is the flashpoint, but he's not the only obstacle to passing the libs wishlist in the Senate, not even the most meaningful for some of the items. Manchin and Sinema take the heat, but there are probably at least a half dozen others who want to see the lib agenda items die.
You can see this in the infrastructure bill(s), which are going nowhere at the moment, and that's the easiest lift of anything the D's have on the to-do list.
If I had to guess I'd say the Senate will get something done on infrastructure before midterms, but even there it's 50/50 they'll need or have GOP votes, which for the libs is almost as bad as a loss, maybe even worse.
If they do get infrastructure done in the Senate by 51-50, clearly they'll be closing up shop after that.
"
Uh uh. This is simply lib feelgood rationalization for continuing to stick with President Biden, and the sell-by date for that is coming quicker that you want.
Basically, looking at the probabilities for meaningful policy agenda until midterms, it's probably a third nothing, a third GOP-supported infrastructure infrastructure, a third at least some amount of Demo "___ is infrastructure" infrastructure.
IOW, very little chance of anything the libhaters really want. No HR1, no DC or PR statehood, no VRA, no SCOTUS, nothing on climate change/fossil fuels beyond what's been done already. Nothing for the Palestinians, probably restoring the status quo ante on the Iran deal.
You might know better than I would, 'cuz you'r a lib and I'm not, but I'm not expecting libs to hang around and be good team players when and if the GOP starts handing out L's to the Biden Administration. If it were Obama, it would be all about "GOP is sooo racist" but for Biden I don't think so. They'll feel like they already put in a fair shift keeping it together through the general election campaign. They're through taking one for the team, it will up to the rest of the party/coalition to keep them happy, and if they don't, they'll take the ball and go home.
That, and other factors I mentioned above (and some I didn't mention), means it's likely the good people will have a good election in 2022.
"
I don't think this is right, that is the premise that the Demo's problems are reducible to messaging and framing.
MIcroaggressions are a perfect case in point. As Kazzy comments above, libs didn't come up with this concept out of thin air. To them, the idea represents a grievance that they want redress for, by this or that.
The problem for Demo's is not just that the word is unfamiliar to grass-roots ex-Demo's. The ex-Demo's are not at all bought into the concept that the word is supposed to be shorthand for. And if, somehow, this idea was made crystal clear for them, it's at least as likely as not that they would be opposing the libs theory of anyway. If, of course, they cared enough to make sure they understood the idea with perfect clarity anyway, which, of course, they don't.
At this point, there's probably just as much reason to believe that the lib/Demo coalition is overperforming as the opposite, given the internal tensions among the people involved.
"
Yeah, this ain't right. If there is really going to be any meaningful separation between the faculty lounge activist crowd and the grass-roots ex-Demo voters, the faculty lounge crowd is going to have be Souljahed, and that plainly hasn't happened in ages.
And I don't think this is right either. In fact, this actually is very relevant to the main theme of the midterms, which is about how big is the GOP post-election majority in the House. I expect the GOP to win majority control regardless, but in practical terms there is a huge difference between having a 5 seat majority and a 35 seat majority. And which is which will largely be determined by the suburbs.
The GOP has been losing upper-middle class white-collar white professionals for a long time now, but the Trump years were especially bad. But, now that Trump is gone, I expect a good number of those to revert to the GOP.
Think about this. Suppose you were a suburban professional who supported the GOP in 2004 or 2014, enthusiastically even, and then voted Demo and/or changed voter registration at some time since then. Why should you continue to support the Demo's now?
Lib/resistance people like to squawk "Charlottesville, Insurrection!!!!" but tbh I don't think any of that will have very much traction come the midterms, or later.
I don't expect the issue mix to be favorable to the Demo's by then. They will be very vulnerable on immigration, and closed public schools, the latter especially important for key parts of the Demo base. Add that up with the usual structural complaints from the libs, I'm expecting a very bad election day for the D's in 2022.
On “The Destructive High Water Mark of MAGA”
Thanks. I was wondering how paranoid I should be.
"
Thanks North
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