We're doing woods-work this weekend getting one of our older hunting spots opened up with better sight lines and cutting back as many honeysuckle bushes and tree of heaven as we possibly can without a skid steer. Now I want a skid steer again; skid steer concupiscence is never far from the heart.
The pendulum will swing back; I'm seeing an opening for those of us who've read widely in prompt engineering.
One project I'm working on my engineer told the LLM, 'you are a marketing professional' and a bunch of other stuff like, don't lie, don't add text after the name of the product, and so on... to help sell cookies.
Oh what an opportunity missed is all I could think. Imagine using the voice of a 'marketing professional' how droll.
You are Fafhrd describing to the Gray Mouser the finest cookie you've ever had; embellish with comparisons to local fauna, and after naming the cookie officially, give it a nickname that would tickle us with whimsey. Post to instagram.
Yes, I think that if we run the election through simulation models multiple times accounting for margins of error and simulate relational effects, sometimes Harris will win and sometimes Trump will win.
You may be right that there won't be 'ticket splitters' but, I think you're wrong in your reasoning; that is, IF there's a reason to split a ticket its to NOT vote for Robinson and NOT vote for Lake, while still NOT voting for Harris... it's exactly because Robinson and Lake are even more odious than Trump, especially in a LOCAL sense.
It's a weird reverse split, but it wouldn't surprise me.
NH going Red is a bold prediction... I have friends in NH that are pretty plugged in to local politics... and just when you think maybe NH will flip red, they never do.
I gave Harris 35% odds of being nominee, so my being wrong was less wrong.
For simplicity's sake I kept PA as the tipping point... but my alternate path to Blue victory goes through NC and AZ where MAGA nutters could potentially impact the Presidential vote in somewhat unpredictable fashion.
There's only one word to describe Trump winning: Inconceivable.
Senate: R+1 (too many Blue seats to defend)
House: Red if Trump wins, maybe even red if Harris wins depending on *how* she wins; that is, if R's quiet quit Trump and split the ticket, then Red; if Harris pulls votes and builds coattails, then potentially it goes Blue.
At this point, I think an assassination would make Vance president... so probably no more assassination attempts.
Wildcard: The Harris Candidacy is unique in that it is both an incumbent and an outsider; it has a record when it wants it and doesn't when it doesn't. I think they are playing this sort of null vector candidacy pretty well... as long as the rest of the world can sit tight for 30 more days, it might just work.
Now, if you'd like to see me act as an official Presidential Elector, then vote as hard as you can for the Pelicans.
If prelude to ground war; the disruption could be decisive. If the goal is to 'send a message' then not so much.
Assuming a ground war, I'm not sure what it accomplishes without support from Lebanon's Maronites, Sunnis and 'civilian' Shia governing coalition members.
Although, if I recall correctly, republicans were happy to join your efforts ending the filibuster for Judicial nominations when it was their turn. You can never be too careful about who will join your efforts and how much they will enjoy it.
There seems to be a lot of pent-up anger against free flights and upgrades. And we don't even have Ryan Air here.
The Matching Funds Fraud was safeguarded by *notarized* certification letter... which strikes me as Tammany shorthand for Give me My Matching funds -- at least when we compare it to 21st century electronic verification and work flow financial technology.
I'm further bemused by the FDNY/Turkish Consulate occupancy certificate scandal which genuinely seems like good 'Borough Presidenting'
Somebody hates Adams in NYC, I'm just curious who and why -- I couldn't care less whether he sinks or swims.
Certainly possible... but I'm talking about groups that I can travel between freely -- from Charismatics to OrthoCaths to TradCaths to RadTrads and most places between.
There's no consensus, not even a 'lesser of two evils' consensus -- which is doubly interesting because the Pope recently threw up his hands and said it's a lesser of two evils election, but darned if he could tell which evil to vote for (since he's not an American). Which isn't to bring the Pope into American politics (about which he is famously ill-informed) -- it's just to say that the 'lesser of two evils' framing used to mean something and now it doesn't mean what it used to mean from a consensus point of view.
In the end, people will vote as they've habitually voted ... so I don't see any meaningful electoral shifts coming, just a growing sense that there's no way out of the box.
It's different in my lifetime... maybe it was more the case in the 1850s when you were a kid :-) ... but the post-war consensus was real.
We had entire culturally affirming TV shows that were about Republicans and Democrats living together and marrying each other.
It's different; doesn't mean that what's happening today will get worse, it could get better! Or stay the same... but I'd disagree that the current Red/Blue tribalism is the same as it always has been.
There's an alternate reality somewhere where the Maronites, Sunni and Druze make common cause w/Israel to root out Hezbollah... but it isn't this one. Lebanon is a cautionary tale of a failed one-state solution for a multi-ethnic state where one part of the ethno-coalition defects so hard it creates an ungovernable enclave effectively ending the project.
After the people, I hope they spare the vineyards in the Bekaa Valley.
Yahoo News ran a story based on unpublished analysis by the Gender Equity Policy Institute claiming Texas' maternal mortality rates rose 56% after the heartbeat act went into force.
Most TradCaths I know are not MAGA, but similar to me they won't shut-up about whatever our bespoke political philosophy that we can't vote for but would if we could should be. So, yeah, getting an opinion of any sort is pretty easy with that crowd.
Catholics and Evangelicals are political allies only as long as neither knows the other supports the thing they're allied on. Suggesting anything closer is a bit of a category error springing from failed Bush II projects.
On “Weekend Plans Post: Thinkin’ ’bout Numbers”
We're doing woods-work this weekend getting one of our older hunting spots opened up with better sight lines and cutting back as many honeysuckle bushes and tree of heaven as we possibly can without a skid steer. Now I want a skid steer again; skid steer concupiscence is never far from the heart.
"
Game patch logic infiltrating business patch logic.
On “From Freddie: The Basics: School Reform”
The pendulum will swing back; I'm seeing an opening for those of us who've read widely in prompt engineering.
One project I'm working on my engineer told the LLM, 'you are a marketing professional' and a bunch of other stuff like, don't lie, don't add text after the name of the product, and so on... to help sell cookies.
Oh what an opportunity missed is all I could think. Imagine using the voice of a 'marketing professional' how droll.
You are Fafhrd describing to the Gray Mouser the finest cookie you've ever had; embellish with comparisons to local fauna, and after naming the cookie officially, give it a nickname that would tickle us with whimsey. Post to instagram.
On “The Joy Of Opening Time Capsules: The 2024 Presidential Election”
Yes, I think that if we run the election through simulation models multiple times accounting for margins of error and simulate relational effects, sometimes Harris will win and sometimes Trump will win.
You may be right that there won't be 'ticket splitters' but, I think you're wrong in your reasoning; that is, IF there's a reason to split a ticket its to NOT vote for Robinson and NOT vote for Lake, while still NOT voting for Harris... it's exactly because Robinson and Lake are even more odious than Trump, especially in a LOCAL sense.
It's a weird reverse split, but it wouldn't surprise me.
"
Agreed... I'm guess most models assume that if NC or GA goes Blue, both will and if both do, then good chance AZ goes, etc.
But that's just generally the case in either direction... that is, if WI goes Red, then MI and or PA may go that way too.
I guess that's why we open the votes and don't just guess at what the crosstabs imply...
"
To be unburdened; unburdened one must be.
"
NH going Red is a bold prediction... I have friends in NH that are pretty plugged in to local politics... and just when you think maybe NH will flip red, they never do.
"
I gave Harris 35% odds of being nominee, so my being wrong was less wrong.
For simplicity's sake I kept PA as the tipping point... but my alternate path to Blue victory goes through NC and AZ where MAGA nutters could potentially impact the Presidential vote in somewhat unpredictable fashion.
"
There's only one word to describe Trump winning: Inconceivable.
Senate: R+1 (too many Blue seats to defend)
House: Red if Trump wins, maybe even red if Harris wins depending on *how* she wins; that is, if R's quiet quit Trump and split the ticket, then Red; if Harris pulls votes and builds coattails, then potentially it goes Blue.
At this point, I think an assassination would make Vance president... so probably no more assassination attempts.
Wildcard: The Harris Candidacy is unique in that it is both an incumbent and an outsider; it has a record when it wants it and doesn't when it doesn't. I think they are playing this sort of null vector candidacy pretty well... as long as the rest of the world can sit tight for 30 more days, it might just work.
Now, if you'd like to see me act as an official Presidential Elector, then vote as hard as you can for the Pelicans.
On “Let’s face it: We knew that Harris would win back in August”
Heh, I wonder what October 4th's post will be...
On “Open Mic for the week of 9/23/2024”
I don't have to say sh*t; you can't make me.
"
Decapitated, for now.
If prelude to ground war; the disruption could be decisive. If the goal is to 'send a message' then not so much.
Assuming a ground war, I'm not sure what it accomplishes without support from Lebanon's Maronites, Sunnis and 'civilian' Shia governing coalition members.
"
I already double dog dared you... what more do you want?
"
Heh, when John Roberts is the Fash we've all been warned about you have to step back and realize your message isn't going to land.
"
Although, if I recall correctly, republicans were happy to join your efforts ending the filibuster for Judicial nominations when it was their turn. You can never be too careful about who will join your efforts and how much they will enjoy it.
"
You should do it. I double dog dare you.
On “New York City Mayor Eric Adams Indictment: Read It For Yourself”
There seems to be a lot of pent-up anger against free flights and upgrades. And we don't even have Ryan Air here.
The Matching Funds Fraud was safeguarded by *notarized* certification letter... which strikes me as Tammany shorthand for Give me My Matching funds -- at least when we compare it to 21st century electronic verification and work flow financial technology.
I'm further bemused by the FDNY/Turkish Consulate occupancy certificate scandal which genuinely seems like good 'Borough Presidenting'
Somebody hates Adams in NYC, I'm just curious who and why -- I couldn't care less whether he sinks or swims.
On “History Will Be Made: Harris VS Trump”
Pshaw, Team Red and Team Blue? pikers.
We've brought empires to a halt with the Greens and Blues...
We've taken sides between Pope and Emperor with Guelphs and Ghibellines...
If there's one thing we know, it's how to split the vote.
"
Certainly possible... but I'm talking about groups that I can travel between freely -- from Charismatics to OrthoCaths to TradCaths to RadTrads and most places between.
There's no consensus, not even a 'lesser of two evils' consensus -- which is doubly interesting because the Pope recently threw up his hands and said it's a lesser of two evils election, but darned if he could tell which evil to vote for (since he's not an American). Which isn't to bring the Pope into American politics (about which he is famously ill-informed) -- it's just to say that the 'lesser of two evils' framing used to mean something and now it doesn't mean what it used to mean from a consensus point of view.
In the end, people will vote as they've habitually voted ... so I don't see any meaningful electoral shifts coming, just a growing sense that there's no way out of the box.
"
It's different in my lifetime... maybe it was more the case in the 1850s when you were a kid :-) ... but the post-war consensus was real.
We had entire culturally affirming TV shows that were about Republicans and Democrats living together and marrying each other.
It's different; doesn't mean that what's happening today will get worse, it could get better! Or stay the same... but I'd disagree that the current Red/Blue tribalism is the same as it always has been.
"
I already have my prediction ready to go.
If we wait too long the prognosticator juice will turn into the heady wine of postmortem analysis.
On “Open Mic for the week of 9/23/2024”
There's an alternate reality somewhere where the Maronites, Sunni and Druze make common cause w/Israel to root out Hezbollah... but it isn't this one. Lebanon is a cautionary tale of a failed one-state solution for a multi-ethnic state where one part of the ethno-coalition defects so hard it creates an ungovernable enclave effectively ending the project.
After the people, I hope they spare the vineyards in the Bekaa Valley.
On “History Will Be Made: Harris VS Trump”
p.s. When is the quadrennial OT Presidential Prediction Thread going up? Oct 1?
At this point I think we have as much prognosticator juice as we're going to get this cycle.
On “Open Mic for the week of 9/16/2024”
On “History Will Be Made: Harris VS Trump”
Most TradCaths I know are not MAGA, but similar to me they won't shut-up about whatever our bespoke political philosophy that we can't vote for but would if we could should be. So, yeah, getting an opinion of any sort is pretty easy with that crowd.
Catholics and Evangelicals are political allies only as long as neither knows the other supports the thing they're allied on. Suggesting anything closer is a bit of a category error springing from failed Bush II projects.