The vibe I've gotten is they're genuinely terrified of pushing the Russians too far and then ending up with some kind of nuke use on their hands. I personally think that fear is overwrought but I also can see even, say, a 10% chance of it making the Administrations hair stand on end. But over all I agree they played it tolerably well but one can always, in hindsight, imagine playing it better.
The Saudi Wahhabi's are evil religious despots and we get along "fine" with them. The Iranians were trying to talk it's entirely conceivable that some level of de-escalation or arrangement could have been achieved- certainly an outcome better than W and his neocon clowns achieved by simply labelling them part of the Axis of Evil. We had, after all, just knocked over Iraq which was a major benefit to Iran. An earlier nuclear deal could have easily been conceivable, any level of de-escalation was at least theoretically possible. Being able to play Iran off the Saudi's and off the Israeli's would have been potentially useful.
Jay beat me to it. A lot of states in that miserable region indulge in that behavior. Arguably Israel is a sponsor of terror too (ironically mostly against the Palestinians and themselves) - they encouraged, funded and propped up Hamas to say nothing of the settlement movement. I never said Iran was ready to join the side of the angels- I said they were nervous and wanted to cut a deal- and got the Axis of Evil idiocy instead.
It bears keeping in mind that historically it didn't have to be this way. The Axis of Evil was, to some degree, a self fulfilling prophecy. Iran, looking askance at the sunni terrorism of 9/11 and their sunni neighbors in Afghanistan and Iraq, quietly put out feelers about peace and W, in one of his many (more than Trump even- I still consider W's administration the most destructive in modern history) historic idiocies, lumped the Iranians into the "Axis of Evil" for their troubles.
Yeah only #3 turns my head, possibly because it aligns with a notion I had that Trump voters who were willing to vote for him already overtly want to vote for him and those who're hesitating/uncertain about voting for Trump will end up breaking away from him.
Still, it's just gonna be an agonizing two weeks and change.
An entertaining internet digression once theorized that Tom Bombadil was an eldritch evil contained by Gandalf and the Elves to his particular corner of Middle Earth. He is unaffected by the ring because his own power transcends it. Tom releases the hobbits, and the Ring, back into Middle Earth because he very much wants Sauron to fail, the ring system to collapse and the Elves to fade departing middle earth and leaving Tom free to rampage.
I trudged through the poetry in total but gave each line little thought and definitely endured it with no enjoyment.
I agree that Tom Bombadil is in the story because Tolkein is a world builder and Tom was an early creation and, thus, could not be left out. If Dungeons and Dragons had existed in Tolkeins time his players no doubt would ruefully have complained about old Tom. Also if D&D had existed as a creative outlet back then it may be that the novels wouldn’t have been written so let’s give thanks for that.
Toms’ inclusion in the Rings of Power Season 2 somehow manages to be indulgent, ham handed and utterly contrary to Toms cannonic role and nature. It’s uniformly so bad it’s almost impressive.
Having reviewed it I think she did herself no significant harm and potentially some good. We also can now bury and retire the nonsensical notion that Harris avoids challenging media encounters.
I agree, but no total victory, no total dictating of terms ala Allies post WWII. And this is without even considering the land question. If the US, and Britain had entertained significant designs on land in Europe post WWII that would have been a very different kettle of fish.
Maybe, but the primary and principle reason was not world opinion or changing moores. It was because A) Israel depended on the largess of western nations to make war and, most importantly, Israel absolutely, totally, was incapable of prosecuting a total occupation of Egypt, Syria, Jordan and the territories the way the allies occupied Germany, Italy and Japan. Eshkol could have shoved a gun into every Israeli man woman and childs' hands and they still couldn't have done it. No total victory, no total dictating of terms.
And let us not forget that a unilateral Israeli withdrawal from the territories -IS- a victory by any rational measure of victories since Israel would, mostly by itself, be deciding what the final lines on the map would be, keeping what it desired and abandoning what it didn't want while making no concessions in return.
That kind of victory has always been impossible because Israel has never been capable of totally defeating her Arab neighbors. Smash their armies? Sure. but A) she could never do it without outside support which always made Israels' successes contingent on outside politics and B) Israel has absolutely never been capable of totally defeating and totally occupying her neighboring countries the way the Allies did post WWII. Absent independence and the power to occupy a total victory along post WWII lines is not possible. Nor, I'd hasten to add, would it have been desirable.
Very kind Dark. I am not gonna quibble on odds but I suspect history suggests the outcomes will be more muddled than your pessimism may suggest- for one thing once they actually have something to fight over it's entirely possible the Palestinians may just fight each other instead. It is the middle east after all.
Sure, but the Israeli's have started turning to a land grubbing derangement including their own underpants gnomes theories about how they get that land without the people on it that is new and very dangerous. The Palestinians ineffective absolute refusals can't endanger Israel beyond the degree that Israel permits it to threaten them. The Israels own demons, though, could kill their state stone dead. A world historic case of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.
Eh, once the 15 million Palestinians in the West Bank have Israels' boot off their neck the dynamic changes a lot. Not to be crass about it but the Palestinian cause has never been unitary and once the West Bank is its own polity a great deal of FUIGM will set in vis a vis the refugees elsewhere. It also can't be emphasized enough that while the refugees can make a lot of moral and online noise they simply have very little ability to cause actual, real, trouble for Israel; enormously less than their relatives on the border can.
The point is that Israels' worst case scenario would still be, in terms of Israels' long term interests, better than their current state. There's a significant chance it'd be a -lot- better and even if it did turn out poorly it'd also have much better odds of improving. The occupation freezes everything in the Middle East in place to Israel's long term detriment.
And, I'd like to pointedly add, that the current occupation of the West Bank does little to nothing to prevent rocket fire from the West Bank into Israel. The people preventing rocket fire from the West Bank into Israel are predominantly the PA. The idea they'd do that -less- when they had -more- control of the West Bank is silly.
Rocket fires from the border cities into Israel. Israel flattens the launch site and ten blocks on every side. The Palestinians and the online humanitarians yelp. The world says "*Yawn*, what did you expect?" Some Palestinians yell "Allah Akbar!" but a lot more of them yell "You stupid fishers, what were you thinking?" The next time the Palestinians see some of their local loons fixing to launch rockets they start getting pissy, and not at the Israeli's.
On “Ukraine and the Axis of Evil”
The vibe I've gotten is they're genuinely terrified of pushing the Russians too far and then ending up with some kind of nuke use on their hands. I personally think that fear is overwrought but I also can see even, say, a 10% chance of it making the Administrations hair stand on end. But over all I agree they played it tolerably well but one can always, in hindsight, imagine playing it better.
"
The Saudi Wahhabi's are evil religious despots and we get along "fine" with them. The Iranians were trying to talk it's entirely conceivable that some level of de-escalation or arrangement could have been achieved- certainly an outcome better than W and his neocon clowns achieved by simply labelling them part of the Axis of Evil. We had, after all, just knocked over Iraq which was a major benefit to Iran. An earlier nuclear deal could have easily been conceivable, any level of de-escalation was at least theoretically possible. Being able to play Iran off the Saudi's and off the Israeli's would have been potentially useful.
"
Jay beat me to it. A lot of states in that miserable region indulge in that behavior. Arguably Israel is a sponsor of terror too (ironically mostly against the Palestinians and themselves) - they encouraged, funded and propped up Hamas to say nothing of the settlement movement. I never said Iran was ready to join the side of the angels- I said they were nervous and wanted to cut a deal- and got the Axis of Evil idiocy instead.
"
It bears keeping in mind that historically it didn't have to be this way. The Axis of Evil was, to some degree, a self fulfilling prophecy. Iran, looking askance at the sunni terrorism of 9/11 and their sunni neighbors in Afghanistan and Iraq, quietly put out feelers about peace and W, in one of his many (more than Trump even- I still consider W's administration the most destructive in modern history) historic idiocies, lumped the Iranians into the "Axis of Evil" for their troubles.
"
A pretty cogent analysis but left out is the problem that for the war to end both sides need to want it to end and neither side is ready yet.
On “From Semafor: Los Angeles Times won’t endorse for president”
That's a laudable stance- though, being a more centrist dem, I would say that.
"
That is impressive.
On “The Election’s Home Stretch”
Yeah only #3 turns my head, possibly because it aligns with a notion I had that Trump voters who were willing to vote for him already overtly want to vote for him and those who're hesitating/uncertain about voting for Trump will end up breaking away from him.
Still, it's just gonna be an agonizing two weeks and change.
On “Campaign Scratchpad: Known Unknowns”
That's my normal haunting grounds for cruising but husbando wanted something new.
On “POETS Day! Why Is Tom Bombadil?”
An entertaining internet digression once theorized that Tom Bombadil was an eldritch evil contained by Gandalf and the Elves to his particular corner of Middle Earth. He is unaffected by the ring because his own power transcends it. Tom releases the hobbits, and the Ring, back into Middle Earth because he very much wants Sauron to fail, the ring system to collapse and the Elves to fade departing middle earth and leaving Tom free to rampage.
I trudged through the poetry in total but gave each line little thought and definitely endured it with no enjoyment.
I agree that Tom Bombadil is in the story because Tolkein is a world builder and Tom was an early creation and, thus, could not be left out. If Dungeons and Dragons had existed in Tolkeins time his players no doubt would ruefully have complained about old Tom. Also if D&D had existed as a creative outlet back then it may be that the novels wouldn’t have been written so let’s give thanks for that.
Toms’ inclusion in the Rings of Power Season 2 somehow manages to be indulgent, ham handed and utterly contrary to Toms cannonic role and nature. It’s uniformly so bad it’s almost impressive.
On “Group Activity: VP Kamala Harris Fox News Interview”
Having reviewed it I think she did herself no significant harm and potentially some good. We also can now bury and retire the nonsensical notion that Harris avoids challenging media encounters.
On “Open Mic for the week of 10/14/2024”
I do think it has a lot of commonality with Christian Grift on the right, though I fear that nonprofits in general already have that space staked out.
"
I agree, it's encouraging.
"
Good, she should.
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Me too!
"
So we're switching from "She's too scared to do interviews" to "She must be desperate to be doing so many interviews"?
On “Open Mic for the week of 10/7/2024”
I agree, but no total victory, no total dictating of terms ala Allies post WWII. And this is without even considering the land question. If the US, and Britain had entertained significant designs on land in Europe post WWII that would have been a very different kettle of fish.
"
Maybe, but the primary and principle reason was not world opinion or changing moores. It was because A) Israel depended on the largess of western nations to make war and, most importantly, Israel absolutely, totally, was incapable of prosecuting a total occupation of Egypt, Syria, Jordan and the territories the way the allies occupied Germany, Italy and Japan. Eshkol could have shoved a gun into every Israeli man woman and childs' hands and they still couldn't have done it. No total victory, no total dictating of terms.
And let us not forget that a unilateral Israeli withdrawal from the territories -IS- a victory by any rational measure of victories since Israel would, mostly by itself, be deciding what the final lines on the map would be, keeping what it desired and abandoning what it didn't want while making no concessions in return.
"
That kind of victory has always been impossible because Israel has never been capable of totally defeating her Arab neighbors. Smash their armies? Sure. but A) she could never do it without outside support which always made Israels' successes contingent on outside politics and B) Israel has absolutely never been capable of totally defeating and totally occupying her neighboring countries the way the Allies did post WWII. Absent independence and the power to occupy a total victory along post WWII lines is not possible. Nor, I'd hasten to add, would it have been desirable.
"
Very kind Dark. I am not gonna quibble on odds but I suspect history suggests the outcomes will be more muddled than your pessimism may suggest- for one thing once they actually have something to fight over it's entirely possible the Palestinians may just fight each other instead. It is the middle east after all.
"
Sure, but the Israeli's have started turning to a land grubbing derangement including their own underpants gnomes theories about how they get that land without the people on it that is new and very dangerous. The Palestinians ineffective absolute refusals can't endanger Israel beyond the degree that Israel permits it to threaten them. The Israels own demons, though, could kill their state stone dead. A world historic case of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.
"
Eh, once the 15 million Palestinians in the West Bank have Israels' boot off their neck the dynamic changes a lot. Not to be crass about it but the Palestinian cause has never been unitary and once the West Bank is its own polity a great deal of FUIGM will set in vis a vis the refugees elsewhere. It also can't be emphasized enough that while the refugees can make a lot of moral and online noise they simply have very little ability to cause actual, real, trouble for Israel; enormously less than their relatives on the border can.
"
The point is that Israels' worst case scenario would still be, in terms of Israels' long term interests, better than their current state. There's a significant chance it'd be a -lot- better and even if it did turn out poorly it'd also have much better odds of improving. The occupation freezes everything in the Middle East in place to Israel's long term detriment.
"
And, I'd like to pointedly add, that the current occupation of the West Bank does little to nothing to prevent rocket fire from the West Bank into Israel. The people preventing rocket fire from the West Bank into Israel are predominantly the PA. The idea they'd do that -less- when they had -more- control of the West Bank is silly.
"
Rocket fires from the border cities into Israel. Israel flattens the launch site and ten blocks on every side. The Palestinians and the online humanitarians yelp. The world says "*Yawn*, what did you expect?" Some Palestinians yell "Allah Akbar!" but a lot more of them yell "You stupid fishers, what were you thinking?" The next time the Palestinians see some of their local loons fixing to launch rockets they start getting pissy, and not at the Israeli's.